Senate and Gubernatorial Rankings – November

Rankings are ‘Tilt’ (less than 5 point race), ‘Lean’ (5-10 point race) and ‘Favored ‘(10-20 point race). Anything beyond that is ‘Solid’ for either party.

August, September and October rankings at links.

http://www.swingstateproject.c…

http://www.swingstateproject.c…

http://www.swingstateproject.c…

To start with it may be worth highlighting the numbers from each of those previous three diaries.

August Projection

SENATE – GOP +5

GOVERNORS – GOP +5

September Projection

SENATE – GOP +6

GOVERNORS – GOP +7

October Projection

SENATE – GOP +7

GOVERNORS – GOP +7

I call that a trend. And not a good one. Unfortunately these final projections continue that trend.

SENATE

Dem Tilt

WA (Not at all confident here. And it will probably take several weeks to see if I’m right.)

Rep Tilt

NV (Polling could well be unreliable here but I have to go with it. Hope I’m wrong.)

CO (Bennet has held on well here but I suspect the year is too much for him.)

IL (Still possible that unexpected Dem turnout can save Alexi.)

PA (Sestak has closed fast but I don’t think it will be quite enough.)

Dem Lean

CA (This one was a worry at times but I think most of us always felt confident enough.)

WV (Still say he was crazy to push for an election this year but it looks like Manchin will get away with it.)

Rep Lean  

WI (Poor campaign from Feingold but may not have mattered. His principles are both admirable and frustrating all at the same time.)

AK (Murkowski likely pulls it off but weird things happen up there. No result of the three would shock me.)

Dem Favored

DE (Chris Coons will be my favorite Dem Senate Freshman. Not that there is much competition.)

CT (Another that caused a few nerves but the fundamentals always suggested retention.)

Rep Favored

MO (The state may be trending away but I think, like many before her, Robin will be back.)

NH (Many say Hodes ran a poor campaign. I don’t buy it. The year made it impossible here with so many indies.)

KY (Paul would have won even without Conway ad own goal. At least he will be entertaining.)

OH (Nobody was beating Portman this year with all that cash.)

FL (Rubio may or may not be a national figure in waiting but Crist is certainly done on that front.)

NC (Biggest recruiting fail of the cycle but even someone like Cooper may have struggled with the environment.)

IN (Surprisingly lackluster campaign from Ellsworth.)

AR (The state has finally broken to join the rest of the region in becoming Republican.)

LA (Vitter is scum but the electorate down their think Obama is scummier.)

ND safely in the GOP column.

GOVERNORS

Dem Tilt  

OR (Kitzhaber turned things around just in time.)

VT (If Rasmussen says Shumlin is leading I’m more than happy to believe him for once.)

FL (Biggest consolation prize of the night.)

Rep Tilt

CT (Late momentum for Foley probably keeps this Republican.)

OH (Strickland may well yet pull this out. Would be a another great consolation prize.)

IL (Can turnout save Quinn? Probably not but possible.)

Dem Lean

CA (Money can’t buy you love and all that. Always preferred nostalgia myself.)

MN (I wonder what would have happened here without the perennial third wheel?)

MA (Very impressed with Patrick’s recovery. Cahill makes little difference in the end.)

HI (Abercrombie recovering from a few shaky polls.)

CO (Suspect Tancredo’s ceiling is 45 percent.)

RI (Chafee ain’t a Dem but Caprio makes him as good as.)

NH (Nature of the year that this ended as close as it did.)

Rep Lean  

PA (D, R, D, R. Like clockwork.)

TX (Very hopeful White has another run in him.)

GA (Environment means no return for Barnes despite Deal’s ethical issues.)

NM (Denish weighed down by Richardson and national environment but Martinez a good nominee anyway.)

WI (Barrett never could shake bad environment and Doyle’s unpopularity.)

SC (Tighter than many expected but Haley wins nevertheless.)

ME (Hoping Cutler can pull a shocker here but probably not.)

Dem Favored    

MD (Senator O’Malley in the future perhaps? Maybe the cabinet?)

NY (I suspect Paladino may well cost the GOP some House seats.)

AR (Beebe bucks the tide quite easily.)

Rep Favored

NV (One Reid was quite enough already.)

MI (Figure that Bernero may out perform the polls a little but still won’t get close.)

AZ (Hating Brown people saves Brewer her job.)

OK (Nobody really ever expected to be even remotely competitive here did they?)

IA (Culver may well have lost to any Republican. He never had a chance agianst Branstad.)

TN (There are many worse people than Haslam that could be winning this for Republicans.)

KS (I do wonder if this would have been competitive in a better year. Parkinson may even have had an outside shot this year.)

AL (Sparksmania didn’t quite materialize.)

ID (Otter polls surprisingly weak once again but that hardly matters up here.)

AK (Ethan Berkowitz meet Tony Knowles. You have much in common.)

WY safely in the GOP column.

Final Projection

SENATE – GOP +8

GOVERNORS – GOP +7

Bonus Projection

HOUSE – GOP +46-51

SSP Daily Digest: 10/27 (Morning Edition)

AL-Gov (Univ. of S. Alabama): Ron Sparks (D) 35%, Robert Bentley (R) 48%

CA-Sen, CA-Gov (Suffolk): Barbara Boxer (D-inc) 52%, Carly Fiorina (R) 43%; Jerry Brown (D) 50%, Meg Whitman (R) 42%

(Bonus: Kamala Harris leads Steve Cooley 35-34 in the AG race, and “no” leads “yes” on Prop 19 55-40)

CA-Sen, CA-Gov (SurveyUSA for KABC): Barbara Boxer (D-inc) 45%, Carly Fiorina (R) 40%; Jerry Brown (D) 46%, Meg Whitman (R) 38%

(Bonus: Gavin Newsom leads Abel Maldonado 42-34 for LG, and “no” leads “yes” on Prop 19 46-44)

CA-Sen, CA-Gov (PPP): Barbara Boxer (D-inc) 52%, Carly Fiorina (R) 43%; Jerry Brown (D) 53%, Meg Whitman (R) 42%

(Bonus: “no” leads “yes” on Prop 19 45-48)

CA-20 (SurveyUSA for KFSN): Jim Costa (D-inc) 42%, Andy Vidak (R) 52%

(note: this poll population is 37% Hispanic, compared with 67% in reality) (also, the DCCC responded with a poll giving Costa a 47-41 lead, although they neglected to leak the pollster’s name) (UPDATE: The pollster is Bennet Petts & Normington, with the sample over the same 10/21-24 period as SurveyUSA)

CT-Sen, CT-Gov (Quinnipiac): Richard Blumenthal (D) 54% (54), Linda McMahon (R) 42% (43); Dan Malloy (D) 48% (49), Tom Foley (R) 43% (42)

FL-08 (Susquehanna for Sunshine State News): Alan Grayson (D-inc) 41% (36), Daniel Webster (R) 48% (43), Peg Dunmire (T) 4%

GA-Gov (InsiderAdvantage): Roy Barnes (D) 41%, Nathan Deal (R) 47%, John Monds (L) 5%

ID-Gov, ID-Sen, ID-01, ID-02 (Mason-Dixon for Idaho newspapers): Keith Allred (D) 30%, Butch Otter (R-inc) 52%; Tom Sullivan (D) 20%, Mike Crapo (R-inc) 64%; Walt Minnick (D-inc) 44%, Raul Labrador (R) 41%; Mike Crawford (D) 17%, Mike Simpson (R-inc) 67%

IA-Gov (Global Strategy Group for Chet Culver): Chet Culver (D-inc) 40%, Terry Branstad (R) 46%

IL-Gov (MarketShares for Chicago Tribune): Pat Quinn (D-inc) 39% (39), Bill Brady (R) 43% (38), Scott Lee Cohen (I) 5%, Rich Whitney (G) 4%, Lex Green (L) 2%

IL-Sen (Anzalone-Liszt for DSCC): Alexi Giannoulias (D) 38%, Mark Kirk (R) 36%, LeAlan Jones (G) 7%, Mike Labno (L) 4%

KY-Sen (PPP): Jack Conway (D) 40%, Rand Paul (R) 53%

KY-03 (RiverCity for Todd Lally): John Yarmuth (D-inc) 41%, Todd Lally (R) 37% (note: n = only 239, yet they claim MoE of 4.5%)

LA-02 (Anzalone-Liszt): Cedric Richmond (D) 49%, Joe Cao (R-inc) 32%

MD-Sen (Baltimore Sun): Barb Mikulski (D-inc) 59%, Eric Wargotz (R) 32%

NC-Sen (SurveyUSA for WRAL): Elaine Marshall (D) 38%, Richard Burr (R-inc) 53%, Mike Beitler (L) 5%

NC-Sen (Tel Opinion Research for Civitas): Elaine Marshall (D) 34%, Richard Burr (R-inc) 44%, Mike Beitler (L) 4%

NJ-03 (Monmouth): John Adler (D-inc) 43% (42), Jon Runyan (R) 48% (39)

NJ-03 (Eagleton/Rutgers): John Adler (D-inc) 44%, Jon Runyan (R) 44%, Peter DeStefano (I) 4%

NJ-06 (Monmouth): Frank Pallone (D-inc) 52% (53), Anna Little (R) 45% (41)

NM-Gov (POS for Susana Martinez): Diane Denish (D) 42%, Susana Martinez (R) 50%

NM-Gov (Greenberg Quinlan Rosner for Diane Denish): Diane Denish (D) 45%, Susana Martinez (R) 46%

NY-20 (Siena): Scott Murphy (D-inc) 42% (54), Chris Gibson (R) 51% (37)

(The Murphy camp leaked an internal from Global Strategy Group today, although only saying a 3-point lead without specific toplines)

OH-Gov, OH-Sen (Quinnipiac): Ted Strickland (D-inc) 43% (41), John Kasich (R) 49% (51); Lee Fisher (D) 36% (34), Rob Portman (R) 53% (55)

OH-Sen (Wilson Research, not apparently on anyone’s behalf): Lee Fisher (D) 38%, Rob Portman (R) 49%

OH-Sen (Univ. of Cincinnati for Ohio newspapers): Lee Fisher (D) 39%, Rob Portman 58%

PA-Sen, PA-Gov (Ipsos for Reuters): Joe Sestak (D) 46%, Pat Toomey (R) 46%; Dan Onorato (D) 43%, Tom Corbett (R) 49%

(Sestak leads 46-42 among RVs, and even Onorato leads 46-43 among RVs)

PA-Sen, PA-Gov (Muhlenberg): Joe Sestak (D) 40% (42), Pat Toomey (R) 48% (47); Dan Onorato (D) 39% (41), Tom Corbett (R) 50% (49)

PA-08 (POS for Mike Fitzpatrick): Patrick Murphy (D-inc) 40%, Mike Fitzpatrick (R) 50%

PA-10 (Lycoming): Chris Carney (D-inc) 45%, Tom Marino (R) 39%

SD-Gov (Neilson Brothers): Scott Heidepriem (D) 40%, Dennis Daugaard (R) 43%

VA-09 (SurveyUSA for WDBJ): Rick Boucher (D-inc) 46%, Morgan Griffith (R) 47%

WI-Gov (Mellman Group, not apparently on anyone’s behalf): Tom Barrett (D) 45%, Scott Walker (R) 47%

Senate and Gubernatorial Rankings – October

Rankings are ‘Tilt’ (less than 5 point race), ‘Lean’ (5-10 point race) and ‘Favored ‘(10-20 point race). Anything beyond that is ‘Solid’ for either party.

August and September rankings at links.

http://www.swingstateproject.c…

http://www.swingstateproject.c…

SENATE

Dem Tilt

WV (Jury is out on wisdom of election this year.)

CT (People like Blumenthal and aren’t fussed about McMahon but closer than it should be.)

NV (Reid can’t pull away but surely Nevadans can’t elect that nut. Can they?)

Rep Tilt

IL (Hardest call to make. I’m still confident Alexi can get over the hump though.)

Dem Lean

NY (Kirsten’s problem was always that people don’t know her. First ads now helping with that.)

WA (Need to see polls not by Rasmussen to see if Rossi has bounced back.)

CA (Boxer isn’t out of the woods yet but the GOP have better targets.)

Rep Lean

WI (Shocked this has shifted so quickly and so convincingly.)

CO (Bennet doesn’t seem to be getting any traction.)

KY (The one remaining shot at a pickup but I suspect it will be another heartbreaker like ’04.)

PA (Sestak has left it too late this time I fear.)

MO (This will be close but doesn’t look good.)

NH (Independents leaning heavily Republican across the country so Hodes has little chance with them dominating the electorate here.)

Dem Favored

DE (Thanks Teabaggers!)

Rep Favored

OH (No Brunner fans she would not be doing better.)

FL (Crist is becoming a bit of a joke.)

NC (Marshall has no money so no contest.)

IN (In any other year I think Ellsworth wins. Want more polls.)

AR (Lincoln won’t lose as big as some think.)

AK (McAdams has great ads but think Dems will be strategic and help Murkowski.)

LA (Melancon ad hitting Vitter where it hurts in final bid but he was never winning this year if any.)

ND safely in the GOP column.

GOVERNORS

Dem Tilt  

CA (August as good as it gets for Whitman. As suspected Brown just had to go up on tv to get ahead. No blowout though.)

Rep Tilt

OH (Strickland running a great campaign but Kasich a tough opponent.)

IL (Quinn is clearly closing despite his problems. Not sure if it will be enough though.)

ME (LePage seems to be sinking but suspect he still leads. Just.)

VT (Need more polling to see if Shumlin has closed here.)

FL (Scott floods the airwaves and Floridians don’t seem to care how dodgy he is.)

OR (Kitzhaber surprisingly weak but still in with a good shout.)

Dem Lean

CT (Foley has skeletons and Malloy does not which in a blue state means a Dem gain.)

MN (Dayton isn’t perfect but split field means a Dem gain.)

MD (Blue state and decent O’Malley approvals mean no Ehrlich return.)

NH (Longevity and the cycle hurt Lynch but I think he’ll be fine.)

MA (Patrick’s job numbers have risen steadily. Suspect he wins even if Cahill drops out late.)

Rep Lean  

PA (Onorato seems to be closing a little but too little too late I fancy.)

TX (Great campaign from Bill White but afraid the state is just too red this year.)

GA (Cannot quite believe Deal is getting a pass here.)

NM (Martinez has a perfect resume for this year.)

WI (Seems to be moving away from Barrett.)

Dem Favored

CO (Hickenlooper breaks 50 on election day despite having two opponents.)

HI (Abercrombie will have to work for it but should be fine.)

RI (Caprio with the advantage but even if Chafee wins this is basically a Dem gain either way.)

NY (No longer a rout but I’m not worried.)

AR (Every incumbent Dem should be on this board!)

Rep Favored

SC (Latest poll looks dodgy but still expect this to tighten in the final weeks.)

NV (Possible Rory could make this close but I can’t see any way he wins.)

MI (Since a Republican was always likely to win Snyder isn’t half bad.)

AZ (Brewer’s debate debacle doesn’t seem to have hurt much.)

OK (I suspect no total blowout but a comfy margin all the same.)

IA (Culver might be toast even with a weaker Republican.)

TN (McWherter turns out to be a bit of dud.)

KS (Nobody seems to have much love for Brownback but even fewer love Dems this year.)

ID (Closer than expected but Otter will win.)

AK (Berkowitz is a decent nominee but I bet he wishes he had challenged Murkowski instead.)

WY safely in the GOP column.

Projection

SENATE – GOP +7

GOVERNORS – GOP +7

ID-01, ID-Gov: Minnick Leads by 10, Otter by 16

Mason-Dixon for various Idaho newspapers (9/13-15, likely voters, no trend lines):

Walt Minnick (D-inc): 46

Raul Labrador (R): 36

Mike Washburn (L): 1

Dave Olson (I): 1

Undecided: 16

(MoE: ±5%)

Mason-Dixon dips its toes into the warm Idaho waters for the first time this cycle, finding frosh Democrat Walt Minnick in good, though not bulletproof, shape in this deep red district. To recap all of the polls we’ve seen of this race, Greg Smith & Associates released a poll back in June showing Labrador ahead by 36-24… which was the first and last time that Labrador led in any publicly-released polling, as his campaign followed up a month later with an internal poll showing Minnick up by 37-27. And local pollster Greg Strimple, who usually works for Republicans, pegged Minnick’s lead at an eye-popping 52-29 in August.

Minnick sports a very impressive 54-16 favorability rating, while Labrador is not hated at 31-10. (41%, though, recognize Labrador’s name but feel ambivalent about him.) Minnick wins 26% of Republicans and leads Labrador among independents by 48-27. In recent days, Minnick’s been going hard negative on Labrador, hitting him for his record as an immigration attorney. (I disagree with my ex-boss Greg Sargent’s take that Minnick is airing the ad out of desperation – I think he’s just trying to rough Labrador up as much as possible before the race has a chance to tighten, which could precipitate a flood of outside money into the district.)

Meanwhile, we have another glance at the gubernatorial numbers:

Keith Allred (D): 29

Butch Otter (R-inc): 45

Ted Dunlap (L): 3

Pro Life (I): 2

Jana Kemp (I): 1

Undecided: 20

(MoE: ±3.9%)

You bet I’m Pro Life! I didn’t realize that the most bizarrely-named dude in politics was back at it (yes, the man legally changed his name to Pro Life in order to run against Jim Risch for Senate in 2008 – backstory here), but it warms my heart to know that there’s no quit in him.

These numbers are actually pretty unspectacular all-around for Butch Otter, whose edge on Democrat Keith Allred has been cut in half over the course of the year. I’m not saying that Allred has a chance (though he’s certainly a very solid candidate), but Otter is on track to under-perform.

Meanwhile, in the Senate race, incumbent Republican Mike Crapo leads Dem Tom Sullivan by 61-17, while GOP Rep. Mike Simpson (who has at least some degree of goodwill from SSP for being so candid with his opinions on Bill Sali in past years) leads Dem Mike Crawford by 51-23.

SSP Daily Digest: 9/7 (Afternoon Edition)

AK-Sen: Once again, the Swing State Project is proud to issue one of its once-in-a-blue-moon endorsements, and to do it for Scott McAdams, the Democratic nominee in Alaska. We’re two-thirds of the way to our $2,400 goal, and we’ve just hit 50 contributors, so please join in!

CO-Sen, CO-Gov: This is a real head-scratcher: Ken Buck’s camp is out with an internal poll by POS… showing him losing (despite what a number of public polls have said)?!? The poll gives a 43-40 edge to Michael Bennet, with 5 going to the Libertarian candidate. Either this is an odd attempt to mess with Dems’ heads, or, more likely, a message to his supporters to stop taking the race for granted and to keep the contributions flowing. UPDATE: OK, this isn’t a Buck internal; it’s a joint POS/Fairbank Maslin collaboration, and it’s not said on whose behalf this poll was performed. One other bit of news from the poll: it also includes gubernatorial numbers, and John Hickenlooper is closing in on the 50% mark. He’s at 48, to 25 for Dan Maes and 15 for Tom Tancredo.

DE-Sen: Tax liens and penalties are sort of the common cold of political scandals, but this isn’t timed well for Mike Castle, who’s trying to stave off a last-minute zone-flooding from Tea Party Express on behalf of Christine O’Donnell. Castle had to make interest and penalty payments three times on his Capitol Hill pad in 2005 and 2006, although of course that pales in comparison to O’Donnell’s long track record of ducking her bills. Meanwhile, we have a sense of what the Tea Party Express‘s fully operational battle station looks like: they’ve spent only $60K on O’Donnell’s behalf so far, but plan to have spent $250K by the primary (including more airing of their TV spot and radio ad, as well as direct mail and out-of-state phone banking).

KY-Sen: The moneybomb shoe’s on the other foot: Jack Conway’s doing an online one-day fundraising scramble today. As of 1 pm ET, the day’s total was up to $130K. Meanwhile, against that moneybomb backdrop, is an instance of a paid Rand Paul staffer having gotten caught sockpuppeting over at Daily Kos, concern-trolling against Conway from the left.

NH-Sen: A lot of money ($10K from various officers and employees) has flowed into Kelly Ayotte’s campaign from a decidedly sketchy company in Texas: Tax Masters, one of those companies that relies heavily on late-night advertising to generate business for helping resolve debts owed to the IRS. The company and its CEO were charged with multiple violations of Texas’s consumer protection laws, in the wake of hundreds of consumer complaints.

OH-Sen, OH-Gov: The Columbus Dispatch offers up some truly bad numbers for the Democratic candidates in Ohio, finding Rob Portman leading Lee Fisher 50-37 in the Senate race and John Kasich leading Ted Strickland 49-37 in the governor’s race (and the GOP winning all lower statewide races too), among registered voters. One important caveat, though: the Dispatch’s poll are notoriously an all-mail-in survey (why not just poll subscribers to Literary Digest?!?), and have consistently ranked dead last in most of 538’s pollster ratings (until the most recent installment, when they managed to leap ahead of a few other members of the rogues’ gallery, including Research 2000, ARG, and Zogby Interactive).

WA-Sen: Patty Murray leaked an internal poll today to Politico, showing that the needle has barely budged in this race between two ubiquitously-known, well-defined candidates. The Fairbank Maslin poll gives Murray a 50-45 lead, and 53/42 approval. An April internal by the same pollster, back when Dino Rossi was only considering entering the race, gave Murray an 8-point lead.

MA-Gov: A poll from local wire service State House News Service gives a decent lead to Deval Patrick, thanks to an assist from Tim Cahill. Their first poll of the gubernatorial race has Patrick leading Republican Charlie Baker, independent Cahill, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein 34-28-18-4, among registered voters.

MD-Gov: For every Joe Miller, there’s, well, a Brian Murphy. The Washington Post takes a quick look at the upstart GOP gubernatorial candidate, whose Sarah Palin endorsement hasn’t turned into much of anything (other than a way for Bob Ehrlich to burnish his moderate credentials). In the pre-primary reporting period (all of which covers the post-Palin period), he’s raised only $35K, including $14K from himself, leaving him with $31K CoH. Ehrlich raised $725K over the 18-day period, taking him to $2.5 million CoH, while Dem Martin O’Malley raised $267K and has $6.5 million CoH.

MI-Gov: While organized labor is the biggest force propelling Dem Virg Bernero in Michigan, there’s one union that isn’t falling in line. The state’s largest construction union, the Michigan Regional Council of Carpenters and Millwrights, is backing Rick Snyder instead. More alarmingly for Bernero, the much-larger Teamsters haven’t endorsed yet and could conceivably go for Snyder too.

MS-Gov: The 2011 election is only fourteen months away, and things are taking shape in Mississippi. Phil Bryant, the first-term Republican Lt. Governor, is taking steps to prepare for a bid. Businessman Dave Dennis also seems likely to run, while the state’s great-named SoS, Delbert Hosemann, also sounds like he’s interested.

TX-Gov: We have two wildly divergent polls in Texas, both from GOP pollsters. Hill Research, on behalf of the Texas Watch Foundation (in a poll that seems primarily about homeowners’ insurance reform, but where the gube race seems to have gotten thrown-in as an attention-getter), finds Rick Perry leading Bill White by only a 42-41 margin. On the other hand, GOPAC (perhaps having gotten an advance heads-up about the Texas Watch numbers) rolled out numbers showing Perry in better shape. Their poll, via Wilson Research Strategies, gives Perry a 50-38 lead over White.

KS-04: With polling now pretty consistently showing Mike Pompeo leading Raj Goyle by single digits in the open seat race in the 4th, the last thing the Republicans can afford here is a high-profile third-party challenge on the right. That’s what they might get, though, if businessman (and former Tic-Tac-Dough host) Wink Hartman follows through on threats to pick up the just-abandoned Libertarian ballot line. The state party has started scrambling to lean on Hartman to get him to stand down.

NY-various: There’s a bonanza of pre-primary fundraising reports in New York (where the primary is next week). The biggest raiser among the various Republican House challengers was Chris Cox in the 1st, who raised $103K to Randy Altschuler’s $59K (although Altschuler still has a big CoH advantage). In the 23rd, the numbers were much smaller: Matt Doheny raised $41K and Doug Hoffman raised $37K, although Doheny has about three times Hoffman’s CoH.

WV-01: On the back of the DCCC’s wave of internal polls today, here’s one more poll that probably has to go in the “good news” file: an internal poll, from POS, has Republican David McKinley trailing Dem Mike Oliverio in the open seat race in the 1st. Oliverio leads McKinley 41-36. The only other poll of this race was an Oliverio internal last month that gave him a seemingly too-good-to-be-true 52-36 lead over McKinley, but at the very least, it seems like everyone’s in agreement that Oliverio’s in pole position for now.

Ads:

CO-Sen: The DSCC is out with an ad in Colorado, letting Ken Buck go after himself with his own words on Social Security and the 17th Amendment

DE-Sen: Mike Castle’s new ad is out; predictably, it goes after Christine O’Donnell for her crazy finances

FL-Sen: First TV ad from Charlie Crist, stressing his (what else?) independence; also Kendrick Meek’s first TV ad, which is him on a swamp boat and stressing his (what else?) Dem credentials

MO-Sen: Roy Blunt ad about how much he loves small business

OH-Sen: Lee Fisher’s first TV ad out of the gate is negative, going after Rob Portman for being George Bush’s job-exporting trade representative

CA-Gov: Strangely sepia-toned ad is Jerry Brown’s first, seemingly to remind older Californians about how much things sucked less when he was Governor the first time (SOTB: $1.2 million for one week… that’s California for you)

FL-Gov: Rick Scott’s first post-primary TV ad is an attack ad against… Barack Obama? (and Alex Sink, too, I guess)

GA-Gov: Roy Barnes goes negative against Nathan Deal on the issues of his recently-released tax returns, calling him “too corrupt even for Congress”

SC-Gov: Nikki Haley’s first TV spot, outsider-themed with a jab at Mark Sanford

FL-22: The new Ron Klein spot is another anti-Allen West spot, but still hammering on the tax liens instead of, well, West’s non-stop stream-of-consciousness crazy

ID-01: Walt Minnick’s first TV spot: please disregard the “D” next to his name, because he’s independent

IN-02: The NRCC’s first television IE of the cycle, hitting Joe Donnelly for, well, being a Democrat

IN-08: Trent van Haaften’s first TV ad is a basic introductory spot

PA-03: Kathy Dahlkemper’s second ad tries to cram “jobs” in there as many times as possible

PA-06: Manan Trivedi’s first TV ad also works the outsider angle

PA-11: Paul Kanjorski’s second ad works the Social Security privatization angle, smart in such an aged district

PA-15: Interestingly, Charlie Dent’s first ad is a negative shot against John Callahan (on local property taxes), indicating he may be feeling some heat here

WI-07: Julie Lassa’s second ad goes after Sean Duffy for saying that he can’t do anything to create jobs

AFSCME: Here’s the big buy of the day: the AFSCME is shelling out $1.5 million in four states (Michigan, Nevada, Ohio, and Pennsylvania) for an ad attacking Republicans for voting against the state aid package in August)

Rasmussen:

DE-Sen: Chris Coons (D) 37%, Mike Castle (R) 48%

DE-Sen: Chris Coons (D) 47%, Christine O’Donnell (R) 36%

ID-Gov: Keith Allred (D) 36%, Butch Otter (R-inc) 52%

ID-Sen: Tom Sullivan (D) 24%, Mike Crapo (R-inc) 63%

MA-Gov: Deval Patrick (D-inc) 39%, Charlie Baker (R) 34%, Tim Cahill (I) 18%

NE-Gov: Mike Meister (D) 28%, Dave Heineman (R-inc) 61%

NV-Gov: Rory Reid (D) 33%, Brian Sandoval (R) 58%

NV-Sen: Harry Reid (D-inc) 45%, Sharron Angle (R) 45%

Senate and Gubernatorial Rankings – September

Rankings are ‘Tilt’ (less than 5 point race), ‘Lean’ (5-10 point race) and ‘Favored ‘(10-20 point race). Anything beyond that is ‘Solid’ for either party.

August rankings at link.

http://www.swingstateproject.c…

SENATE

Dem Tilt

IL (Which matters more, state or year? I think the latter but only just.)

NV (Rasmussen’s latest has Reid up three with leaners which is probably about right.)

WI (Basically a tie in most polling. I think the DSCC will have to bail Feingold out here.)

WA (Same deal as WI and IL.)

Rep Tilt

CO (Very few post-primary polls but looks like Buck is up. Bennet has a chance because his opponent says crazy things.)

KY (Best chance of a pickup but only because of Rand Paul.)

FL (Rubio ahead thanks to the exposure of the Dem primary but Crist still well in the game.)

Rep Lean

MO (I don’t expect Blunt to win by much but I now expect him to win.)

PA (I really hope Sestak hasn’t left it too late to try and define Toomey.)

NH (Still a chance that Ayotte isn’t the nominee.)

OH (Fisher doesn’t have the money to compete.)

Dem Lean

CA (Very close to only a tilt but CA is more Dem than WA and WI.)

CT (Maybe should be favored still but the last two polls were a worry.)

Rep Lean

NC (Unless the DSCC gets involved I don’t see Marshall getting close. Unfortunately I doubt they can afford it.)

Dem Favored

WV (Need to see more polling before moving this to leans but suspect may need to.)

Rep Favored

DE (Castle probably wins the primary but it is damaging him. I think Coons will surprise people.)

IN (Like Castle, Coats never seems to poll much above 50 but the year looks to much to overcome.)

LA (Vitter doesn’t deserve his easy ride. A Dem would be toast in an equivalent state.)

AR (I seriously doubt that Lincoln loses as she polls but she is certain to lose.)

AK (Not as hopeful as some about this but I guess you never know.)

ND safely in the GOP column.

GOVERNORS

Dem Tilt

OR (Kitzhaber goes negative and not a moment too soon.)

MN (Would be leans if not for the latest poll.)

MD (O’Malley consistently leads if by a small amount.)

FL (Exit of Chiles is a boost to Sink but this is no slam dunk despite Scott’s negatives.)

MA (I suspect Cahill’s support will start to bleed away but Patrick should still squeeze past Baker.)

Rep Tilt

GA (Deal was probably the best opponent for Barnes but still tough this year.)

IL (Hopefully Quinn continues to close but he is still behind for now.)

ME (Not much polling here so anything could happen as in the primaries.)

VT (The primary may have been civil but overtime is hurting.)

NM (Denish has work to do but all is not lost.)

WI (Walker missteps mean I’m more bullish here than I was.)

CA (Whitman barrage finally takes a toll in the polls. I still think Brown can turn it around.)

Dem Lean

CT (Malloy has the advantage but I wonder if Foley’s money will yet tighten things up.)

Rep Lean

AZ (Brewer’s debate mess gives Goddard a chance.)

MI (Snyder has appeal to Dems but hopefully Bernero can yet catch fire.)

PA (Probably ends up closer than the polls suggest but not much chance of an Onorato win.)

TX (Polling seems to be moving this out of grasp which is a damn shame.)

OH (Can’t quite believe Kasich is doing this but believe we must.)

Dem Favored

CO (Governor Hickenlooper I presume!)

HI (Abercrombie likely wins primary and then the general.)

RI (Either Chafee wins or Caprio wins, neither is a Republican so we can safely count this as a Dem pickup.)

Rep Favored

SC (If any of this category tighten it will be here. Pushback in the base to Haley gives Sheheen an opening. Possibly.)

OK (Askins may yet make this competitive but probably not enough.)

IA (Ugly numbers for the incumbent means defeat.)

NV (Rory needs to avoid a blowout to help his dad.)

AL (Sparks is good but Bentley is better and this is Alabama in a heavily GOP year.)

ID (Not as big a lead for the GOP as one would expect but it is still Idaho.)

KS (Theoretically Holland may be able to exploit the state moderate/conservative split but I doubt he gets close.)

SD (Daugaaurd is popular and in 2010 that is more than enough for a Republican in a red state.)

TN (Haslam has some moderate credentials so could be worse I guess.)

AK (Parnell should be safe but Berkowitz will make him work for it.)

WY (No Freudenthal means no Dem governor.)

UT (This is Utah.)

Projection

SENATE – GOP +6

GOVERNORS – GOP +7

SSP Daily Digest: 8/18

AK-Sen: Joe Miller has two things going for him in the Alaska GOP Senate primary: the endorsements of Sarah Palin and Mike Huckabee. On the other hand, Lisa Murkowski has the backing of about 1.9 million dead presidents behind her. That’s her cash on hand, based on $300K raised in July and early August. Miller raised only $68K in that span and now has $84K CoH.

KS-Sen, KS-Gov: SurveyUSA, no stranger to Republican-friendly samples lately, comes up with quite the GOP wipeout in Kansas. They find Republican Rep. Jerry Moran leading Lisa Johnston in the Senate race, 69-23, and find Sam Brownback leading state Sen. Tom Holland in the gubernatorial race, 67-25. They even find several Dem incumbents losing to GOP challengers in downballot races. It may be worth, noting, however, the disparity in self-described ideology between this sample and the 2008 exit polls: this poll is 49 conservative, 37 moderate, 9 liberal, compared with 2008’s 45 moderate, 38 conservative, 16 liberal.

NV-Sen: With her endorsement percentage starting to trend steeply downward (with last night’s losses by Rita Meyer and Clint Didier), Sarah Palin’s trying out a new angle, literally. She’s backing Sharron Angle in Nevada, saying she’ll “actively help” her and that Angle “is putting up with more crap than she deserves.” Palin avoided getting involved in the primary, probably in large part because of other family members’ support for Danny Tarkanian.

NY-Sen-B, NY-Gov (pdf): Siena’s out with another look at the big-ticket races in New York, finding the same-old same-old. Kirsten Gillibrand leads Bruce Blakeman 55-28, Joe DioGuardi 54-29, and David Malpass 55-27. DioGuardi is on track to win the GOP Senate primary, leading Blakeman and Malpass 19-8-5. And Andrew Cuomo is even more dominant, leading Rick Lazio 60-26 and Carl Paladino 60-27. Lazio leads Paladino 43-30 in the GOP primary, much closer than previous months. Further down the ballot, they find incumbent Dem comptroller Tom DiNapoli leading Harry Wilson 46-28, and Dems leading a generic ballot-type question about the state legislature, 33-27.

CO-Gov: Dan Maes picked his running mate: former state Rep. and former Dept. of Regulatory Agencies head Tambor Williams. Williams seems to actually be something of a moderate by today’s GOP standards, which is an interesting act of ticket-balancing by the wackadoodle Maes (although you have to wonder how “moderate” someone willing to be joined at the hip to Maes can be). Meanwhile, Tom Tancredo is focusing most of his fire on Maes, not on John Hickenlooper, attacking Maes’, well, utter lack of qualifications. Tancredo seems to realize that the only path to viability in this election as an indie is reducing Maes to the Alan Schlesinger-style single-digits role. And guess who’s throwing up their hands and walking away? The RGA, which according to several local Republicans, has confirmed it won’t be spending money in Colorado.

ID-Gov, ID-01: We’ve gotten an inkling that the Idaho gubernatorial race (where GOP incumbent Butch Otter was elected with lackluster numbers in 2006) was possibly a real race, and these poll numbers seem to confirm it. I don’t know whether to call this a Republican poll (it’s taken by a local pollster who usually works for Republicans, Greg Strimple, on behalf of the Idaho Hospital Association) or an independent one, but either way, it’s not good news for the GOP. Otter leads Dem Keith Allred by only 47-36. Also good news: that Raul Labrador internal poll that had him losing by double digits was actually pretty optimistic, on his part. This sample sees Dem Walt Minnick beating Labrador by a startling 52-29 margin. Maybe all that chatter about the NRCC moving to write off this seat has some real roots.

VT-Gov: Lone Republican Brian Dubie is the fundraising leader in the decidedly small-dollar gubernatorial race in Vermont. Dubie has raised the most over the course of the campaign (slightly more than $1 million). (Maybe if Meg Whitman can’t win in California, she should consider moving to Vermont and buying the gubernatorial race here. In fact, maybe she should just consider buying the entire state of Vermont, which would still be cheaper than buying the gubernatorial race in California.) The Dems are all closely bunched, with Peter Shumlin and Deb Markowitz more or less tied for most raised. But all five major Dems are low on cash, each reporting less than $100K CoH (Matt Dunne has the most, at $83K). For some reason, the article doesn’t tell us Dubie’s CoH.

GA-08: GOP state Rep. Austin Scott (following hot on the heels of fellow legislator and GA-02 candidate Mike Keown’s internal poll release) is out with an internal showing a competitive race against Rep. Jim Marshall. Marshall leads Scott 44-39 in the poll conducted in late July by American Viewpoint.

MI-01: This has the potential to mightily reshuffle things in the open seat race in the 1st… or it could turn out to be so much wind in sails, as promises of massive self-funding usually are. Random teabagger and indie candidate Glenn Wilson is promising to spend $2 million of his own money in order to defeat Gary McDowell and Dan Benishek, the Dem and GOP nominees. In this rural seat with dirt-cheap media markets, that could go a long way toward blanketing the airwaves… but without the organizational backing that the party apparatuses provide, that seems like it still might not translate into actual votes.

TN-08: Humble farmer/gospel singer and, in his spare time, director of Fight Club, Stephen Fincher is out with an internal poll from the Tarrance Group that gives him a lead over Democratic state Sen. Roy Herron in this open seat race. He claims a 47-37 lead, with conservative indie Donn James at 5, in a poll taken immediately post-primary. Herron, who avoided much trouble in the primary and was able to bank a lot of money, is already hitting Fincher with TV ads, though.

RGA: One nice thing about the post-Citizens United universe is that it lets us see everything in the open that we’ve only just suspected in the past. Case in point: Rupert Murdoch’s News Corp. (the Fox News and WSJ parent corporation) just gave $1 million to the Republican Governors Association. Insert obvious snarky comment about “Fair and Balanced” here.

Rasmussen:

KY-Sen: Jack Conway (D) 40%, Rand Paul (R) 49%

NV-Sen: Harry Reid (D-inc) 47%, Sharron Angle (R) 47%

OH-Gov: Ted Strickland (D-inc) 40%, John Kasich (R) 48%

PA-Gov: Dan Onorato (D) 38%, Tom Corbett (R) 48%

Senate and Gubernatorial Rankings – August

I’m going to do one of these on the first Monday of every month between now and election day. Though I expect movement in most of these races it is time to do away with the tossup cop out and get off the fence!

Rankings are ‘Tilt’ (less than 5 point race), ‘Lean’ (5-10 point race) and ‘Favored ‘(10-20 point race). Anything beyond that is ‘Solid’ for either party.

SENATE

Dem Tilt

IL (Absolute deadheat but since the topic of conversation is all about Kirk I’m giving it Alexi in such a blue state.)

NV (I’m less certain this is has become clear cut as some but Reid has definitely moved ahead at least for now.)

WI (Feingold never wins by whopping margins and races in Wisconsin always seem closer than most.)

WA (No fireable offence from Murray and decent approvals. Rossi has baggage and is only close because of the cycle.)

Rep Tilt

PA (Small lead for Toomey right now but I expect Sestak to improve his position when he gets better known.)

CO (Until the latest SurveyUSA poll both Buck and Norton lead both Dems. Until the primary shakes itself out we aren’t going to see movement.)

KY (Paul has the lead because he has kept his mouth shut lately. Hopefully ads and debates will help Conway.)

OH (I fear this is a huge missed opportunity. Portman is ripe for attack but Fisher doesn’t have resources to do it.)

MO (Will be close until the end and I still think Robin can do it despite the unsavory environment.)

NH (Ayotte has clearly been hurt recently but I’m skeptical Hodes can get over the top in this one.)

Dem Lean

CA (Small percentage lead for Boxer but much harder for a Republican to close that gap in real votes in California.)

FL*(I’m counting Crist as a Dem pickup though I still think there is a chance he caucuses with the GOP.)

Rep Lean

NC (Don’t see Burr losing here. Not this year, not with his CoH advantage.)

Dem Favored

CT (Blumenthal should be fine since he managed to ride out his exaggerations far better than Mark Kirk.)

WV (Without Capito in the race Manchin should be fine so long as he doesn’t coast.)

Rep Favored

IN (Ellsworth’s problem is name recognition and bad environment. He will close here fast but not sure fast enough.)

LA (Melancon is doing well just to keep this remotely competitive. The electorate wants someone to oppose Obama 100%.)

AR (Blanche shocked everybody once so can she do it again? No. Though I think it will be closer by election day.)

DE (Coons will surprise many and narrow the gap further as we go on but like IN I’m not sure it will be enough.)

We can put ND safely in the GOP column.

GOVERNORS

Dem Tilt

OR (Polls are tied but have to give it to Kitzhaber for his campaigning skills and the lean of the state.)

MN (Emmer is killing himself rather than anything the Dems are doing. I think Dayton will get a clear win in the end.)

RI*(I’m counting Chafee as a Dem since he is arguably more liberal than the actual Dem nominee.)

MD (O’Malley hasn’t committed a fireable offense and has decent approvals. Lean of the state should be enough.)

FL (The Republicans have nuked each other and Chiles looks like a non-factor.)

MA (Deval seems to be improving his approvals and Cahill means he has a decent shot at re-election.)

CA (Once Brown starts running ads he should be ok in such a blue state.)

Rep Tilt

GA (Barnes is an underdog in a red state but he is closer than he should be. Both Republicans have skeletons.)

IL (Brady leads but the lean of the state may be enough yet for Quinn if he can paint his opponent as too far right.)

ME (LePage is ahead but like in RI anything could happen here including an indie win.)

OH (Polling is mixed here but my best guess is Kasich has a narrow lead. Strickland can still pull it out though.)

VT (Dubie ahead here but probably more to do with name recognition than anything else. Suspect it will be close.)

TX (Bill White is doing a great job here but I expect the year and state is just too Republican.)

NM (Martinez with a small lead but Denish can win if she is able to seperate herself from Bill Richardson.)

WI (Small leads for both Republicans but Barrett was as good a nominee as Dems could get here. Still possible.)

Dem Lean

CO (What a mess for the GOP! Hick should win easily here unless McInnis drops out post-primary.)

CT (Lamont really should win this one and I think he will.)

Rep Lean

AZ (Great change in fortunes for Brewer. Maybe Goddard can make this close but I have my doubts.)

MI (Post-primary this may get interesting, especially if Hoekstra is the GOP nominee.)

PA (Onorato will close when he gets his name recognition up but PA has a pattern here that likely won’t change.)

OK (Not as big a Fallin lead as I expected but the year and state makes it very hard for Askins.)

Dem Favored

HI (Abercrombie has a big lead and should win this going away.)

Rep Favored

IA (Branstad is popular and Culver is not. Only one outcome looks likely here.)

NV (Maybe Harry’s improving fortunes helps Rory but Sandoval is no Sharron Angle!)

AL (Sparks is probably as good as it gets for Dems but a fresh face in Bentley in a GOP year makes this very tough.)

ID (Not as big a lead for the GOP as one would expect but it is still Idaho.)

KS (Brownback isn’t exactly loved by the entire KS GOP but I can’t see anything but a Holland defeat here.)

SC (Sheheen may shock people but again, red state in a terrible year for Dems means Governor Haley.)

SD (Daugaaurd is popular and once again, red state, GOP year.)

TN (McWherter is not his dad and the polls are ugly.)

UT (Herbert has anemic poll leads but it is Utah!)

Projection

SENATE – GOP +5

GOVERNORS – GOP +5

SSP Daily Digest: 7/26 (Morning Edition)

We’re back from a successful Netroots Nation, and in the midst of sweeping up from half a week of limited posting, we’re going to do a polls-only digest first and tackle the rest of the damage later today.

AK-Sen (pdf): Local pollster Ivan Moore is out with the first (and probably only) public look at the Republican primary between incumbent establishment figure Lisa Murkowski and Tea Party fave (and proxy for foxy GOP doxy Sarah Palin) Joe Miller. Y’know what? Alaskans know that their local economy is largely propped up with federal dollars, and the teabagger message isn’t likely to have much resonance here, no matter how much pro-gun posturing it gets dressed up in. The poll finds Murkowski with 53/29 positives, and a 62-30 lead over Miller.

FL-Sen, FL-Gov (pdf): The Attack of the Shady Billionaires seems to continue unabated, as they pour even more money into advertising. PPP looks at both of their primaries. It’s still a close race in the Democratic Senate primary, where Rep. Kendrick Meek leads the yacht-crashing Jeff Greene 28-25 (with Tom Jensen observing “Democratic voters seem uninterested in this election,” with many of them already having settled on Charlie Crist). In the GOP gubernatorial primary, Columbia/HCA-crashing Rick Scott is in firm control, though, leading AG Bill McCollum 43-29. McCollum’s favorables among Republicans are a horrible 26/40, while Scott’s are 35/32.

KY-Sen: Another public poll places the Kentucky Senate race in near-dead heat territory. Braun Research, on behalf of local politics website cn|2, finds Rand Paul with a 41-38 lead over Jack Conway. Conway has substantial leads among moderates (52-18) and among women (43-36).

LA-Sen: The Charlie Melancon camp and the NRSC exchanged fire over the last few days, issuing dueling internal polls with dramatically different takes on their races. Melancon struck first with an Anzalone Liszt internal showing a much closer race than anyone has seen before: David Vitter led Melancon only 44-43 (the previous A-L internals had 10-point spreads). The NRSC responded with a POS poll over the weekend, giving Vitter a more predictable 48-31 lead when including leaners. Maybe more importantly, this poll is the first look at the GOP primary, and it shows Vitter may not have too much trouble with it: he claims a 76-5 lead over Chet Traylor.

NC-Sen: Here’s one more Democratic internal that really serves to shake up what’s been considered a Republican-leaning race. The Elaine Marshall camp released a poll from Lake Research last Thursday giving her a 37-35 lead over Richard Burr (with 5 to Libertarian Mike Beitler). Burr’s favorables are 34/43, and he has a re-elect of 25/31, numbers no incumbent would like to see.

GA-Gov (pdf): I have trouble believing this one, but maybe Nathan Deal, who seems to be staking out more conservative turf than Karen Handel, is consolidating more of the votes of the various primary losers than is Handel. Deal is out with a new internal, from McLaughlin & Associates, giving him a 39-38 lead over Handel in the GOP gubernatorial (or goober-natorial, in Georgia) runoff. 56% of respondents say Deal is conservative, while 35% say Handel is and 30% call her a moderate.

MI-Gov: A new poll of the Democratic primary from Inside Michigan Politics gives a different result from just about everybody else: they give a significant lead to Virg Bernero, who leads Andy Dillon 36-22. The article is strangely silent on other details about the poll, especially the issue of sample size, where Inside Michigan Politics has been pushing the limits of credibility.

OK-Gov: SoonerPoll.com, on behalf of the Tulsa World, is out with what’s probably the last word on the gubernatorial race before this Tuesday’s primaries. Tuesday night looks to be pretty drama-free: on the Dem side, AG Drew Edmondson leads LG Jari Askins 49-33 (up from a 10-point gap in their previous poll, way back in January). For the GOPers, Rep. Mary Fallin leads state Sen. Randy Brogdon 56-18 (which is actually a drop for Fallin from the last poll). They also look ahead to November matchups, finding Fallin leading Edmondson 47-39 and Askins 46-40.

TN-Gov: The Tennessee primary will also be fast upon us, and Mason-Dixon, on behalf of the Tennessee Newspaper Network, takes their first look at the GOP gubernatorial primary there. Like other recent polls, they give the edge to Knoxville mayor Bill Haslam, who’s at 36. Rep. (and now, apparently, aspiring secessionist) Zach Wamp is at 25, and Lt. Governor Ron Ramsey is at 20. (All three candidates are from the eastern third of the state, and western Tennesseeans are disproportionately undecided (29%). That would tend to benefit the biggest advertiser, which is Haslam.) Mason-Dixon also tried out November matchups, finding Dem Mike McWherter looking DOA against the sorta-moderate Haslam, 49-31, but in closer races against the more strident Wamp (45-38) and Ramsey (43-38).

PA-03: There’s one House internal to mention, and, as has been the trend lately, it’s from a Republican. It’s from a race that been on most people’s back-burners; we’ll have to see if this raises auto dealer Mike Kelly’s profile. Kelly’s own poll, via the Tarrance Group, give him a 48-37 lead over freshman Dem Kathy Dahlkemper.

Rasmussen

AR-Gov: Mike Beebe (D-inc) 50%, Jim Keet (R) 40%

AR-Sen: Blanche Lincoln (D-inc) 35%, John Boozman (R) 60%

AZ-Gov: Terry Goddard (D) 37%, Jan Brewer (R-inc) 56%

FL-Sen: Kendrick Meek (D) 20%, Marco Rubio (R) 35%, Charlie Crist (I) 33%

FL-Sen: Jeff Greene (D) 19%, Marco Rubio (R) 34%, Charlie Crist (I) 36%

GA-Gov: Roy Barnes (D) 43%, Nathan Deal (R) 49%

GA-Gov: Roy Barnes (D) 44%, Karen Handel (R) 45%

ID-Gov: Keith Allred (D) 36%, Butch Otter (R-inc) 53%

ND-AL: Earl Pomeroy (D-inc) 46%, Rick Berg (R) 49%

NY-Gov: Andrew Cuomo (D) 58%, Rick Lazio (R) 27%

NY-Gov: Andrew Cuomo (D) 58%, Carl Paladino (R) 29%

RI-Gov: Frank Caprio (D) 30%, John Robitaille (R) 23%, Lincoln Chafee (I) 37%

RI-Gov: Frank Caprio (D) 33%, Victor Moffitt (R) 18%, Lincoln Chafee (I) 36%

WV-Sen: Joe Manchin (D) 51%, John Raese (R) 35%

SSP Daily Digest: 6/8 (Morning Edition)

  • DE-Sen: Biden alert? Dem senate candidate Chris Coons says a Biden fundraiser is “in the works.” I sure hope so! I think Coons is a sleeper candidate, and it would be ridic for Biden not to help a fellow Dem out in his own state (which is just outside of DC, anyhow).
  • NV-Sen: It may be too late to save her fricasseed campaign, but Sue Lowden has an over-the-top ad out hitting Sharron Angle for her support of a Scientology-backed plan to offer massage therapy to recovering drug addicts. Be sure to check out the cameo of a certain couch-jumping Top Gun star at about 20 seconds in.
  • NY-Sen-B: So as you know if you’re a faithful SSP reader, the state GOP put two dudes on their ballot line for the September primary: Bruce Blakeman and David Malpass. They did not include ex-Rep. Joe DioGuardi, but (and this is a big “but,” DioGuardi did score the Conservative Party’s ballot line all to himself. Though DioGuardi says he’ll try to petition his way on to the GOP ballot, Republicans don’t seem to have a lot of faith in him becoming their nominee, and they want to avoid a split ticket. So Conservative chair Mike Long got a bunch of calls asking him to bounce DioGuardi from his party’s line, but he refused, pointing out that DioGuardi got 70% of the vote at the Conservative convention. Ah, the New York GOP – still a train wreck.
  • ID-Gov: The Idaho Statesman has a pretty good profile on Dem gubernatorial nominee Keith Allred, who is running a surprisingly vigorous (and decently-funded) campaign against the not-so-hot incumbent Butch Otter. The most interesting detail is the fact that the Idaho Association of Commerce and Industry, a chamber-of-commerce-type big business lobby, is already attacking Allred – not something you usually bother doing with an un-serious candidate.
  • SC-Gov: Rudy Giuliani jumped in with a last-minute endorsement of AG Henry McMaster yesterday – though note that the unlovable loser finished sixth in the South Carolina primary in 2008. (Though Joe Lieberman reassured him that it was actually an eleventy-way tie for fifth.) And in a seriously weird last-minute desperation move, Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer released, uh, well… you’d expect me to say “released a poll,” right? Nope – he released the results of a polygraph test (!), which he claims show he had no involvement in the various Nikki Haley affair allegations. Talk about protesting a wee bit too much, huh?
  • AL-05: A douchey move from a douchey guy: Bud Cramer, the Democrat who held this seat before giving way to Parker Griffith, is not “ready to endorse any candidate for Congress” – even though, you know, we have a nominee (Steve Raby). Cramer actually pulled this same shit last cycle after he announced his retirement, dithering for several weeks before finally endorsing Griffith. Back then, Cramer suggested he might endorse a Republican – and I guess he finally got his wish when Griffith switched parties. Jesus, though – do the right thing already.
  • FL-24: Former Winter Park Commissioner Karen Diebel scored an endorsement from Mike Huckabee in her bid to become the GOP nominee against Rep. Suzanne Kosmas.
  • MA-10: Republican Jeffrey Perry has been under fire for his oversight of a police officer under his command while Perry was a police sergeant in the early 1990s. The officer, Scott Flanagan, was ultimately fired and pled guilty for illegal strip-searching a 16-year-old girl. Now, the Cape Cod Times reports that Perry’s own accounts of the incident and its aftermath are contradicted by police records from the time. In an earlier interview, Perry suggested that he had acted with alacrity in handling the situation, but now it appears he waited 24 hours to write up the officer, and almost a week to take a statement from a witness to the search.
  • NC-08: Heh, he actually went ahead and did it. Weapons-grade wingnut Tim D’Annunzio launched a defamation suit against his runoff opponent, Harold Johnson, for a “radio ad targeting D’Annunzio for his ‘life of drugs, crime and time served in prison’ and for supposedly failing to pay an employer payroll tax, having tax liens, and withholding child support.” D’Annunzio had previously threatened to sue the chair of the NC GOP, but this is so much more fun.
  • NY-13: Rep. Mike McMahon scored the endorsement of the Independence Party, which means he’ll have their ballot line in November (something he didn’t have last cycle). And while he won’t get the support Working Families Party thanks to his “no” vote on healthcare, the WFP isn’t expected to nominate any kind of challenger, so their line will likely remain blank in this race – thus avoiding a split of the left-leaning vote. A Dem primary challenge at this point also looks remote. Meanwhile, McMahon raised $140K at a fundraiser hosted by none other than Mike Bloomberg. He was also expected to take in some $90K at an Anthony Weiner event, which was also slated to feature Staten Island Borough President James Molinaro, a Conservative.
  • NY-29: Judge David Larimer of the Western District of New York ruled against Republicans who were seeking to force Gov. David Paterson to call the special election for this vacant seat earlier than November, saying Paterson was empowered to call it for the fall. An appeal to the Second Circuit is possible, but no word yet on whether one is planned.
  • VA-11: This seems really lame.
  • CA-SoS: I guess maybe we were too busy laughing when we first heard stories that Orly Taitz was running for California Secretary of State to bother writing it up… but not only is she on the ballot, the CA GOP is worried she might win the primary! She’s running against Damon Dunn, another ex-NFLer (what is with those guys running for office this year?), but Dunn’s deliberately ignored her rather than attack. The Republicans have little chance against Dem incumbent Debra Bowen, but Orly as their nominee would be a nice, months-long goiter for them to deal with.
  • Blue Dogs: I think I agree with everything Chris Bowers says in this post.
  • Games: Several folks in comments were recommending a new game called Congress Forever the other day, where you battle for control of the House and Senate. I haven’t tried it yet, but it looks like the perfect nerd timewaster.
  • Polling: Nate Silver just released the latest version of his pollster ratings, which analyzes a truly massive data set of “4,670 distinct polls from 264 distinct pollsters covering 869 distinct electoral contests” going all the way back to 1998. He lays out his methodology in a separate post, which is a must-read. Also, that gang of polling maniacs over at PPP are soliciting your votes again: The choices this time are LA, MA, PA, WA or WI.
  • Redistricting: Politico has a piece out which claims that Republicans are lagging in the race to raise money and set up legal groups to wage the coming round of redistricting battles. I’m a little skeptical, because the article says that Republicans are hurting thanks to a lack of soft money in the post-McCain Feingold world – but if anything, Dems were known as the party most dependent on soft money before campaign finance reform passed. Still, P’Co suggests that Dems are more organized because of some top-down control being exercised by the Obama political operation.