FL-Sen: Wide Open Race in Florida

Quinnipiac (1/14-19, registered voters):

Alex Sink (D): 15

Kendrick Meek (D): 13

Ron Klein (D): 9

Allen Boyd (D): 8

Dan Gelber (D): 1

Don’t know: 54

(MoE: ±4.7%)

Bill McCollum (R): 22

Connie Mack IV (R): 21

Vern Buchanan (R): 10

Marco Rubio (R): 6

Allan Bense (R): 2

Don’t know: 39

(MoE: ±4.3%)

If the primary elections for the Florida senate race were held today, “Don’t know” would sweep both nominations in a landslide. At this point, this is a name recognition test, and Floridians seem to have no idea who these candidates are. At any rate, there seems to be something of a hierarchy here: statewide officials (Sink, McCollum) fare best, then U.S. Representatives, with state legislative leaders down in no man’s land.

On the Dem side, Kendrick Meek has the edge among current candidates. But assuming that he comes in with fairly high name rec from being in the state’s largest media market, and that he’s probably already consolidated the state’s African-American vote, he may not have as much room to grow as the other candidates.

Unfortunately, this poll has a major wrinkle; it was in the field when Alex Sink announced that she wasn’t going to be a Senate candidate, so presumably some respondents were operating under the assumption that Sink was a likely candidate while others knew that she wouldn’t be. In fact, the only head-to-head Quinnipiac tried out involved Sink as the Dem nominee (McCollum 36, Sink 35, with 29 don’t know). Here’s hoping they try again soon with some other permutations.

FL-Sen: Sink Won’t Run

Florida CFO Alex Sink won’t run against GOP Sen. Mel Martinez:

Florida’s chief financial officer, Alex Sink, has decided to run for a second term as CFO and forego a run against Martinez. She made the decision over the Thanksgiving weekend.

This is too bad — Sink was probably our best bet to torpedo the hopelessly mediocre Martinez. It looks like she has her eye on the Governor’s mansion when Crist is term-limited out of office in 2014.

Whoever runs in her place will likely be someone without statewide name recognition (e.g. Ron Klein), which will make this a bit tougher, but still doable with a good campaign. I wonder who Bob Menendez is calling tonight.

FL-Sen, FL-Gov: Sink to Announce Decision “Soon”

Florida Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink, who is perhaps the strongest candidate Democrats currently have on their statewide bench (and the only one aside from Bill Nelson currently elected statewide), says the she’ll be making a decision shortly on her political future. From the St. Petersburg Times:

On the subject of politics, Sink promised a decision soon on her political future which could include running for the U.S. Senate seat held by Republican Mel Martinez in 2010, running for governor, or staying put, and perhaps preparing for a run for governor in 2014 when the office will be open.

“I’m going to make up my mind very soon,” Sink said. “It’s all about what’s best for me, and what’s best for the state.”

As for Martinez himself, The Hill notes that he hasn’t announced his intentions for 2010 (he will do so in January). While it may be unlikely, it wouldn’t totally shock me if Martinez decided not to run for another term.

Alex Sink Seeking the Senate in Florida?

Cross posted at draftalex.com.

It’s pretty obvious that people are hoping that Alex Sink tosses her hat in the ring or higher office. The question we hope she’s facing right now is which one: Senate or Guvna?

There are perhaps a few too many calls for Alex Sink to be our Senate nominee.  This morning, Blast Off! even called for her to run for Senate and forget about the governor’s mansion.

n689468099_962883_7922At Draft Alex Sink for Governor the bias is pretty obvious. But, think for a second about why running for Senate wouldn’t be as good as a move.

First, just in terms of personality and experience, Alex is perfectly suited to be governor. She’s been an executive- and that’s what a governor theoretically does (just don’t look to Charlie for an example). Dan Gelber, Bob Wexler, Allen Boyd- these men are legislators- damn good ones, if I may. Their skills and interests fit the profile of a Senator more than Alex’s do.

There is a crowded bench already. Alex would have to compete with the likes of Dan Gelber and Chris Korge, maybe Allen Boyd, or even Bob Wexler. Those are some serious players, who could all represent the state well and some will run if she gets in or not. Alex could win the primary and the general, but why go for Senate to when the bench is already so deep, so good.

Winning the senate seat back is going to be tougher than we imagine. Sure, it looks a lot easier than beating Charlie does, but we’re two years out from the election- things change. Charlie should start to look more like a do-nothing, and Mel Martinez might decide to gracefully bow out, leaving the Republicans to nominate someone who could give us more of a challenge. In short, get excited about another Democratic senator, but don’t bet money on it just yet.

While there’s a crowded bench for Senate, there is literally no bench for governor- outside Alex Sink. If Democrats want to stop losing the state, then we can’t cede races like the 2010 gubernatorial. We need to not only nominate a candidate, but we need to nominate a good one. Right now, no other Democrat is really dipping the proverbial toe in the water- no one, not even Rod Smith.

And, there’s my peace.