MN-Sen: Where are these votes coming from?

For the sake of ending whatever remnants there are to “Franken’s goose is cooked” chatter there may be, I’m giving a simple run-down of the math here.  The numbers I am taking are sourced from the Star Tribune’s results page found here:…

Every challenged ballot is like taking that vote out of the total count, which is why Coleman and Franken’s numbers have both gone down as the counting has progressed.  Looking at the totals, there are almost 6,000 total challenges, (3,070 challenges by the Coleman campaign, 2,882 challenges by the Franken campaign for a total of 5,952).  Meanwhile, Franken and Coleman have lost only a total of 4,871 votes.  (Coleman has lost 2,373 votes and Franken has lost 2,498 votes).  

Doing the math, 5,952 challenges – total votes lost 4,871 means that, with four counties outstanding, (Wright, Winona, Scott, Rock) and parts of three other counties outstanding, (7% of Ramsey County, 7% of Hennepin County, and 40% of Dodge County) we have found 1,081 votes that were missed by machines.  It is completely impossible to determine who these votes go to, because the results are hidden, for the most part behind challenges.  The only new votes we can determine are in counties where there is actually a net positive for a candidate.  Of these 1,081 new votes, at least 16 votes have gone to Coleman and at least 24 votes have gone to Franken.  

The rest of the new votes are hidden behind challenges.  In fact, the 1,081 number may be high, because Coleman and Franken can challenge ballots that are expected to go for Barkley or others.  We can go county to county.  The largest source of new votes comes from:

~60 votes from Anoka County

~280 votes from Hennepin County

~150 votes from Ramsey County

These new votes will probably make less of a difference than the panel ruling on challenged ballots.  

Star Tribune has picture of nearly 600 challenged ballots asking for you to rule on them.  I don’t know if you need to log in first or what, because the pictures are not working on my computer.  http://senaterecount.startribu…

As of right now for 6,000 challenges, Franken needs to win 216 more than Coleman.  That’s 3,108 to 2,892.  AKA 51.8% to 48.2%.  However, for every challenge that gets thrown out, the percentage Franken needs to win challenges edges up.  

MN-Sen: Coleman’s lead expands to 282; challenges explode to 5625

After a week of recounting, with 88% of the votes recounted:…

Coleman has added to his lead, partly by challenging more ballots (2885 to 2738), but also

because there aren’t many Democratic areas to recount.  St. Louis County is complete, Hennepin and Ramsey Counties are 87% and 81% complete, respectively.  Of the eight counties not yet started, seven of them went to Coleman.

So is it over for Al?  Without challenges, he’s only picked up 80 votes.  And with the strong possibility that the missing absentee ballots might not be counted, it’s getting grimmer for Franken.