Charlie Crist is running as an independent! And he’s going to tank! But his running as a 3rd wheel helps Meek win a 3-way!
So the CW seems to go, at least on our side.
But, alas, I fear the numbers so far are telling a different story.
Polls right before and after Crist formally flipped to indy all said the same thing: Crist leads a 3-way. But don’t worry, Crist will tank. Even a couple of the pollsters themselves, whose own polls showed Crist surging, said forget it, he’s at his high water mark.
But, really, is he?
What no one seems to say or think, that I think and now say out loud, is no one predicted a polling BOUNCE for Crist upon his making the switch. People saw polls beforehand showing him competitive, but it’s clear his switch didn’t leave him merely “competitive” but shot him into the lead.
Did anyone really expect that? No one said so, at least, which makes me conclude no one expected it.
And lo and behold, that polling bounce comes from indies and Democrats, not from any Republicans. And it’s coming almost entirely at Meek’s expense, not Rubio’s.
So, alas, I’m left to conclude we seriously risk HI-01 The Sequal, with Charlie Crist starring as Ed Case, Kendrick Meek as Colleen Hanabusa, and Marco Rubio as our villain, Charles Djou.
Even if Crist slides, that still leaves Meek behind Rubio, which is where he’s consistently been in all polling.
We’re all enjoying this 3-way as campaign junkies, myself included. And I always hoped and at times thought a 3-way gives Meek a better shot at victory than a one-on-one in an anti-Democratic environment.
But Meek needs a dramatic shift that includes more than just Crist fading if we’re going to take this seat. And I fear that come election night, even the final weeks leading up to it, we might be regretting not having had a one-on-one here.
