Research 2000 for Daily Kos (12/8-10, likely voters):
Arlen Specter (R-inc): 43
Pat Toomey (R): 28
Undecided: 29
(MoE: ±5%)
Chris Matthews (D): 24
Patrick Murphy (D): 19
Allyson Schwartz (D): 15
Undecided: 42
(MoE: ±5%)Chris Matthews (D): 28
Patrick Murphy (D): 21
Undecided: 51Chris Matthews (D): 30
Allyson Schwartz (D): 18
Undecided: 52Patrick Murphy (D): 23
Allyson Schwartz (D): 20
Undecided: 57
Chris Matthews (D): 44
Arlen Specter (R-inc): 45
(MoE: ±4%)Patrick Murphy (D): 36
Arlen Specter (R-inc): 48Allyson Schwartz (D): 35
Arlen Specter (R-inc): 49Chris Matthews (D): 46
Pat Toomey (R): 35Patrick Murphy (D): 44
Pat Toomey (R): 36Allyson Schwartz (D): 42
Pat Toomey (R): 36
Every possible configuration of the 2010 Pennsylvania Senate race you can imagine is here, courtesy of Research 2000 for Daily Kos. Arlen Specter can’t be liking what he’s seeing. Thanks to Rasmussen last week, we already knew that Specter was vulnerable against Chris Matthews (they found Specter up 46-43). R2K finds an even closer race in that configuration, with Reps. Patrick Murphy and Allyson Schwartz trailing Specter by 10+ points but holding him below 50%. (Consider this mostly a measure of name recognition at this point; Matthews has a national platform, but Murphy and Schwartz are little known outside their districts and right now are basically “generic D.”)
But guess who else is holding Specter below 50%? Pat Toomey, who looks to be taking the controls for yet another kamikaze mission by the Club for Growth. If the free-market fundamentalist Toomey wins the primary, the general is effectively over, with even Murphy and Schwartz thumping him in head-to-head matchups.
Considering that Specter won the primary against Toomey in 2004 by only 2 points (with a slightly different-looking Pennsylvania GOP, where many of the remaining moderates hadn’t yet jumped ship), Toomey winning the primary this time is a distinct possibility, given a Republican base with an even purer, less diluted conservatism. Specter pulls in only 43% in the primary matchup, which points to the balancing act he’ll have to negotiate in the next two years: either burnish his RINO credentials and support most of the Obama agenda in order to survive the 2010 general, or join the southern GOP rump’s obstructionist efforts in order to survive the 2010 primary. I believe the technical term for such a situation is “damned if you do, damned if you don’t.”