Tag: David Patterson

Marist (2/25-26, registered voters, 1/27 in parentheses):

David Paterson (D-inc): 26

Andrew Cuomo (D): 62

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Rudy Giuliani (R): 78

Rick Lazio (R): 17

(MoE: ±5.5%)

David Paterson (D-inc): 38 (46)

Rudy Giuliani (R): 53 (47)

David Paterson (D-inc): 47

Rick Lazio (R): 35

Andrew Cuomo (D): 56

Rudy Giuliani (R): 39

Andrew Cuomo (D): 71

Rick Lazio (R): 20

(MoE: ±3%)

Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc): 36

Carolyn McCarthy (D): 33

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Peter King (R): 32

George Pataki (R): 56

(MoE: ±5.5%)

Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc): 49 (49)

Peter King (R): 28 (24)

Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc): 45 (44)

George Pataki (R): 41 (42)

(MoE: ±3%)

Whew! That’s a lot of data for one poll. And none of it is good for Gov. David Paterson, who can’t muster even half the support of AG Andrew Cuomo in a primary matchup… and if he miraculously makes it through the primary, he’s poised to get creamed by Rudy Giuliani, of all people.

There’s also the wee matters of his approval rating (26% ‘excellent’ or ‘good,’ which is lower than George Pataki, Mario Cuomo, or Eliot Spitzer ever managed), disapproval over his handling of the budget (30/59, down from 42/41 in January, suggesting that most of his continued plunge is about the budget and not about senate seat blowback), and terrible ‘wrong track’ numbers for the state of New York (27/65). The only thing he has to be thankful about: that he’s not ex-Rep. Rick Lazio, the one man in the state who’s even less popular.

On the Senate front, Paterson’s appointee Kirsten Gillibrand is still in something of a holding pattern as her constituents get to know her. She’s getting only 18% ‘excellent’ or ‘good ratings, compared with 32% ‘fair’ or ‘poor,’ but 50% of the sample just says ‘don’t know.’ She fares well against Rep. Peter King, but ex-Gov. George Pataki (who hasn’t really expressed interest in the race, although John Cornyn has been privately buttering him up) makes the race competitive. Her toughest task may still be defending her left flank in the primary, although unlike Quinnipiac‘s February poll, which had Gillibrand down 34-24 to Rep. Carolyn McCarthy, Marist gives Gillibrand the narrow edge. (Discussion is underway in andgarden‘s aptly titled diary.)

From PPP

When it comes to whether they would prefer to see Kennedy or Andrew Cuomo

appointed, 58% now prefer Cuomo to 27% for Kennedy.  Cuomo is favored by 65% of

Republicans, 59% of independents, and 54% of Democrats.  A PPP survey conducted a

month ago showed Cuomo as the top choice for just 23% of Democrats, compared to

44% who wanted Kennedy.

“When Caroline Kennedy was first mentioned as a possible Senate appointee there was a

lot of enthusiasm among New York Democrats about her,” said Dean Debnam, President

of Public Policy Polling.  “Her reputation has taken a pretty clear hit over the last month,

and if Governor Paterson does end up appointing her she’s going to have some work to

do to overcome this bad first impression she’s made on New York voters.”

57% of New Yorkers view Andrew Cuomo favorably with just 20% having an

unfavorable opinion of him.  For Kennedy the numbers are 44% favorable and 40%

unfavorable.

PPP surveyed 700 New York voters on January 3rd and 4th.  The survey’s margin of error

is +/-3.7%.  Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce

additional error that is more difficult to quantify.  

http://www.publicpolicypolling…

EDIT:

New York State voters have cooled on Caroline Kennedy and more voters now prefer State Attorney General Andrew Cuomo 31 – 24 percent for Hillary Clinton’s U.S. Senate seat, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. U.S. Rep. Carolyn Maloney gets 6 percent, with 5 percent for U.S. Rep. Kirsten Gillibrand, 2 percent for U.S. Rep. Steve Israel, 18 percent for someone else and 14 percent undecided.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x128…

The most striking thing in this poll to me is the lowering of Kennedy’s favorable from a previous poll, and the rapid increase in Cuomo’s favorables and choice of New Yorkers’ of him as the next Senator.

Doesn’t this mean that Patterson should move quickly to appoint, given that he has interviewed about 15 people and because the public is so far in one person’s corner.  

EDIT: Also look at the q poll which shows a smaller margin.

Or is Cuomo not the right person?