Tag: Lee Fisher

Politico:

Ohio Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner will be announcing that she’s running, according to a senior Ohio Democratic operative. She will be declaring her candidacy in a statement to be released this afternoon.

If elected, Brunner would become the first woman elected to the Senate from Ohio.

Brunner will be receiving the endorsement of the women’s group EMILY’s List, which will help her raise the millions necessary for a statewide campaign.

This comes as something of a surprise, as Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland was engaged in something of a blocking pattern for his Number One, Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher — who has himself set up an exploratory committee and was expected to announce a decision within a few weeks. It remains to be seen whether Strickland and Fisher would want to go ahead with a major primary skirmish.

Two recent polls have actually shown Brunner in slightly weaker shape than Fisher against Rob Portman (PPP and Quinnipiac), although Brunner may be suffering a bit from a contentious election (and post-election) season after engaging in a number of battles with the Ohio GOP on early voting and the drawn-out OH-15 saga. (Although, according to Quinnipiac’s latest, voter resentment on this score may be fading away.)

In any case, holding Brunner’s SoS seat will be imperative for a lot of reasons. (UPDATE by Crisitunity: Of course, there’s making sure that there’s no voter suppression in Ohio in the 2012 presidential election. But Democrats also desperately need to hold the SoS seat for purposes of state legislative redistricting (decisions for which are made by a 5-member board, one member of which is the SoS). Dems hold a 3-2 advantage on the board right now, so holding the SoS seat is necessary to crack the current ridiculous pro-GOP gerrymander of Ohio legislative districts.)

UPDATE (James): Fisher is now in, too. Get ready to rumble. (Hat-tip: LeftistAddiction)

LATER UPDATE: Brunner announcement video available here.

Quinnipiac (1/29-2/2, registered voters):

Lee Fisher (D): 42

Rob Portman (R): 27

Jennifer Brunner (D): 38

Rob Portman (R): 28

Lee Fisher (D): 41

Mary Taylor (R): 27

Jennifer Brunner (D): 38

Mary Taylor (R): 26

(MoE: ±2.9%)

Rob Portman (R): 33

Mary Taylor (R): 11

(MoE: ±5.1%)

Lee Fisher (D): 18

Jennifer Brunner (D): 16

Tim Ryan (D): 14

(MoE: ±4.4%)

Quinnipiac polls a whole bunch of different permutations on the Ohio Senate race, including the primary races, and you gotta like what you see here. Lt. Gov Lee Fisher and Sec. of State Jennifer Brunner both lead ex-Rep. and ex-OMB Director Rob Portman by double digits. The only missing element is head-to-heads involving Rep. Tim Ryan, who also seems likely to run (and they do poll him in the primary)… but judging by the similarity between Fisher and Brunner’s numbers, it seems like the candidates are running more as ‘generic D’ and ‘generic R’ right now, and he’d do just as well.

The unknowns are very high even in the general, but they’re catastrophically high in the primary heats, with the majority of the electorate in the “don’t know” camp right now. This is especially the case in the hypothetical GOP primary, where Portman (who has already committed to the race) is tested against the little-known Auditor Mary Taylor. (Taylor hasn’t publicly expressed any interest in the Senate race; discussion of her at this point seems to be limited to online GOP fanboys depressed with the drab Portman and casting about for someone Sarah Palin-esque to give them the twinkles.)

A few weeks ago, PPP tried out Fisher, Brunner, and Ryan against Portman, and Portman won all three of those tests, although not by particularly large margins. So this Q-poll, in and of itself, shouldn’t be taken as a promise of a pickup; this is going to be a hard fought race for the next two years. (H/t Leftist Addiction.)