Tag: Jim Tedisco

Benenson Strategy Group (D) (2-24/25, likely voters):

Scott Murphy (D): 37

Jim Tedisco (R): 44

Eric Sundwall (L): 4

(n = 400)

This is starting to look rather encouraging: never-before-elected venture capitalist Scott Murphy is within 7 points of state assembly minority leader Jim Tedisco in a Democratic internal poll in the race to succeed Kirsten Gillibrand in NY-20. Tedisco led by 21 in early February in his own POS internal and then by 12 in an independent poll in mid-February from Siena, so while there’s an apples and oranges problem here among pollsters, there’s an upward trajectory for Murphy as we approach the Mar. 31 special election.

One other observation: folks in the media are treating this poll as evidence that Tedisco’s hemming and hawing about voting for the economic stimulus package (and the ensuing broadside of criticism he received from the local papers’ editorial boards) hurt him. I’m sure that’s true. But look at the dates this poll was in the field: two and a half weeks ago, before Tedisco’s vacillations really started to define the race, and only a week after that Siena poll. I don’t know why they waited so long to release the poll, but given the age of this poll and intervening events, it’s quite possible that the real race is even closer. (Discussion is underway in conspiracy‘s diary.)

http://www.politico.com/news/s…

Beneson Strategy Group, 2/24-25, 400 LV

Tedisco 44

Murphy 37

Sundwall 4

Dated so it might be even closer now.

“Murphy, in his first run for elected office, has repeatedly attacked Tedisco over the Republican’s initial refusal to say how he would have voted on the stimulus package, which was approved in the House without a single GOP vote. Tedisco eventually said he would have voted for the bill “with amendments.”

But the controversy has allowed Murphy to cut into Tedisco’s once seemingly impregnable lead. Early polls had Tedisco up by 20-plus points, while a Siena Research Institute poll two weeks ago still had him holding a 12-point edge.”

Win this one and Repubs are seriously screwed. Oh and Michael Steele would get the chop.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com…

• NY-20: The Troy Record, one of the major papers in the district, calls out GOP candidate Jim Tedisco in an angry editorial for not living in the district and for sticking to the Republican negative campaigning playbook.

• OK-Gov: Former Republican Congressman J.C. Watts says he’s weighing a run for governor and will make a decision in 45 days. (Mark your calendars for April 17th.) But how will Watts, who made tentative pro-Obama noises last year, play in a GOP primary? (D)

• CA-19: More R-on-R fun: A wealthy Republican fundraiser in California is itching to recruit a primary challenger for GOP Rep. George Radanovich. Assemblyman Mike Villines might be interested. Radanovich’s district supported Bush by monstrous margins, but only went for McCain by 52-46 last year. (J) (UPDATE: Villines’ office writes in to say that he will be supporting Radanovich in 2010.)

• CA-Sen: Best wishes to Carly Fiorina, the former Hewlett-Packard CEO who moved on to Republican politics and had been mentioned as a possible candidate against Barbara Boxer in 2010. She’s been diagnosed with breast cancer, which may put her political activism on hold.

• DC Voting Rights: The House vote on the DC Voting Rights Act has been pushed back until next week, as leadership figures out how to prevent the GOP from adding language that strips most of what remains of DC’s gun laws (after the Supreme Court partially struck them down last year).

• 2010 House: The Hill has a nice preview of some of the hot House races in two years, and candidates bubbling up to fill those slots.

Time for the daily ganja break…

• NY-20: Scott Murphy snagged the Independence Party line for the March 31 special election – a good get, even though it didn’t help Sandy Treadwell much last fall. Meanwhile, both Tedisco and the NRCC are up on the air with negative radio and TV ads. The DCCC also hits back with its first ad, attacking Tedisco for stimulus-related waffling while defending Murhpy against back taxes charges.

• IL-Sen: Oh god – Roland Burris has rolled out a campaign website, complete with “Donate” link. Also, it should come as no surprise, but state treasurer (and Friend of Barack) Alexi Giannoulias made his interest official today, launching his exploratory committee. Meanwhile, Rep. Jan Schakowsky says she’ll jump in if there’s a special election, though she sounds leery about giving up her seat for a 2010 run.

• DC Voting Rights: Steny Hoyer has promised a House vote this week on the DC Voting Rights Act. The bill should pass the House easily, given that a prior version sailed through in 2007. The real issue will be whether the conference committee settles on an at-large or traditional district for Utah. (D)

• UT-Sen: Damn, Ken Jennings won’t run. Says Jennings: “I’ve decided to bow out of the election before even announcing, in order to spend more time with my family. (And when I say “with my family,” I mean, “screwing around on the Internet.”)” At least that’s an excuse we can all understand and accept. (D)

• Polltopia: Public Policy Polling once again is letting readers decide which Senate race they’ll poll next. The choices: Connecticut, Delaware, and Kentucky. (J)

• CA-Gov: Looks like John Garamendi, Gavin Newsom, Jerry Brown, and Antonio Villaraigosa are all dead serious about running for governor in 2010; they all jointly appeared before the San Fernando Valley Democrats this weekend.

• OR-Gov: As DeFazio, Kitzhaber, Bradbury, et al. try to figure out who’s running, a dark horse may be sneaking past them: Portland City Councilor Randy Leonard, who may be able to count on substantial backing from organized labor.

Siena College (2/18-19, likely voters):

Scott Murphy (D): 34

Jim Tedisco (R): 46

(MoE: ±3.7%)

Here is the first public poll of the special election in NY-20 to replace Kirsten Gillibrand; compared with the Tedisco internal released a few weeks ago (which had Tedisco up 50-29), it shows Scott Murphy in a better position, although still in a pretty deep hole.

The good news is that Murphy, who has never held office before, is still little-known, giving him room to grow (his favorable/unfavorable is 29/10 with 61% undecided); Tedisco, by comparison, is much better known, although he’s viewed pretty favorably (47/20, with 34% with no opinion). The poll also asks an interesting question: whose endorsement will matter the most to you? The most common answer is Kirsten Gillibrand, who still maintains a stratospheric 75/15 favorability rating in the district. Gillibrand stumping in the district will go a long way toward helping Murphy here. Discussion is already underway in DTM,B!‘s diary.

New York Governor David Patterson has set the special election in NY-20 for March 31. Those two months are a pretty generous timeframe, but from the Dems’ standpoint, it’s necessary, to give candidate Scott Murphy some time to introduce himself to the district. (The self-funding Murphy hasn’t held elective office before.)

That timeframe also gives Jim Tedisco the chance to get better familiarized with the kinds of technology the kids are using these days. (After all, the new post-2008 GOP strategy appears to be “We’re going to do the exact same thing as before. Except now we’re going to use Facebook and Twitter.”)

Brownsox at Daily Kos has an amusing piece on how the tech-savvy, linked-in Tedisco has a feature on his website that front-pages everything from the #NY20 Twitter feed… including all the press releases coming from the DCCC’s blog, such as “Will Tedisco Finally Reimburse Taxpayers Over $21,000 for His 20-Minute Car Ride?” (Throw in Pete Hoekstra‘s little problems with constantly Twittering away his locations on his recent trip to Iraq and Afghanistan, and you’ve gotta wonder if the GOP would be better off just sticking with the tools they’ve already mastered: direct mail and AM radio.)

Public Opinion Strategies (R) for Jim Tedisco (2/3-4, registered voters):

Scott Murphy (D): 29

Jim Tedisco (R): 50

(MoE: ±4.9%)

NY-20 was always going to be a tough hold, despite the fact that it narrowly went for Obama over McCain, because of its historically Republican nature (as seen in the GOP registration advantage and the utter lack of a convincing Democratic bench). Although this is an internal poll from Tedisco’s camp, it pretty clearly shows what kind of a hole we’re starting in.

Complicating matters is the name recognition factor: Tedisco, as Assembly Minority Leader and someone with deep roots in nearby NY-21, sports a 51% favorable/13% unfavorable rating, while local businessman Scott Murphy has never held office before. Murphy’s one advantage is self-funding: he’s already amassed $600,000 cash on hand, including a $250,000 loan from himself. Which is good… if Murphy’s going to be competitive in this race, in the face of a relatively short timeframe, it’s going to have to be through a lot of paid media.