SSP Daily Digest: 4/1

Site News: SSP is delighted to announce that we’ve just welcomed our six millionth visitor to the site. Thank you, everyone! (D)

NY-20: The NRCC is already using the paper-thin margin in NY-20 last night as the springboard for a whole new fundraising e-mail pitch: the Dems are trying to “pull a Franken” and “steal” the election in the courts, so please send lawyers, guns, and money. Eric Kleefeld has a thought on why this is good news! For Pete Sessions!

One problem Murphy might have is that Al Franken’s lawyers aren’t available right now. And in Tedisco’s favor, Norm Coleman’s attorneys are busy, too.

The Fix has obtained some Democratic projections of how things will shake out after all absentees are counted (they’re projecting Murphy by 210). This appears to be based on performance rates in the counties where the absentees came from (in other words, there seem to be disproportionately more absentees coming from pro-Murphy counties than Saratoga).

AK-Sen: It happened a few months too late to save Ted Stevens’ job, but the DOJ has finally dropped its frequently-bungled case against Stevens after further instances of prosecutorial misconduct arose.

CT-Sen: One more ‘oopsie’ for Chris Dodd: he blew through a lot of his campaign war chest on his ill-advised 2008 presidential run (he transferred $4.7 million from his 2010 senate kitty to his presidential campaign). He’s currently at only $670K cash on hand, compared with $1.6 million at this same point in his 2004 re-election.

FL-Sen: Kendrick Meek plays Gallant to Chris Dodd’s Goofus: he raised a whopping $1.5 million in the first quarter, as he tries to nail down frontrunner status for the Democratic nomination.

CA-Sen: Carly Fiorina, who was briefly sidelined by treatment for breast cancer, seems ready to get back into the political arena. She’s “seriously considering” entering the race against Barbara Boxer.

OK-Gov, OK-04: SSP’s all-time favorite punching bag, Tom Cole, looks to be staying where he is. He’s declined to run for Oklahoma governor, leaving fellow Rep. Mary Fallin in the driver’s seat for the GOP nomination.

TX-10: Democrat Jack McDonald, an Austin-area businessman running for the seat of GOP Rep. Mike McCaul, has announced that his campaign has raised over $300,000 in its first five weeks. Those are some pretty impressive numbers at this stage in the game. (J)

NRCC/NRSC: Remember the brouhaha over the big NRCC/NRSC fundraising dinner where no one could figure out whether or not Sarah Palin was going to keynote, where it turned out that the governor’s office and SarahPAC had no idea what each other were doing? Well, amateur hour is continuing apace in Anchorage, as now she’s off again. In her place, Newt Gingrich (who would have ever predicted the day when Newt Gingrich would be seen, by comparison, as the GOP’s sober, rational elder statesman?).

History: PolitickerNY takes an intersting trip down memory lane, looking at some of the greatest hits among previous close House elections, like CT-02 in 1994 and IN-08 in 1984.

CA-Sen: Boxer Has Big Edge in 2010

Field Poll (2/20-3/1, registered voters):

Barbara Boxer (D-inc): 54

Arnold Schwarzenegger (R): 30

Barbara Boxer (D-inc): 55

Carly Fiorina (R): 25

(MoE: ±3.6%)

Arnold Schwarzenegger (R): 31

Carly Fiorina (R): 24

Chuck DeVore (R): 9

Carly Fiorina (R): 31

Chuck DeVore (R): 19

(MoE: ±5.8%)

The bad news for Barbara Boxer is that she’s not terribly popular; only 42% of Californians are inclined to re-elect her, while 43% are inclined not to. The good news is, there’s nobody that Californians are inclined to like better. Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger has been considered the GOP’s best bet in this seat (despite his not having publicly expressed any interest in the race), but the new Field Poll shows him getting demolished. This is a much bigger margin than the R2K poll from two months ago that gave Boxer a 9-point edge, but that’s before the state-level budget crisis took him down (and, to be fair, just about every governor) a few pegs.

Former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina doesn’t fare any better, and while her prognosis is supposedly good after breast cancer surgery last week, she’s hardly a lock for the race either. The GOP may be left with little-known and little-liked state assemblyman Chuck DeVore. Either way, Boxer doesn’t seem to be facing much danger any more.

SSP Daily Digest: 3/4

NY-20: The Troy Record, one of the major papers in the district, calls out GOP candidate Jim Tedisco in an angry editorial for not living in the district and for sticking to the Republican negative campaigning playbook.

OK-Gov: Former Republican Congressman J.C. Watts says he’s weighing a run for governor and will make a decision in 45 days. (Mark your calendars for April 17th.) But how will Watts, who made tentative pro-Obama noises last year, play in a GOP primary? (D)

CA-19: More R-on-R fun: A wealthy Republican fundraiser in California is itching to recruit a primary challenger for GOP Rep. George Radanovich. Assemblyman Mike Villines might be interested. Radanovich’s district supported Bush by monstrous margins, but only went for McCain by 52-46 last year. (J) (UPDATE: Villines’ office writes in to say that he will be supporting Radanovich in 2010.)

CA-Sen: Best wishes to Carly Fiorina, the former Hewlett-Packard CEO who moved on to Republican politics and had been mentioned as a possible candidate against Barbara Boxer in 2010. She’s been diagnosed with breast cancer, which may put her political activism on hold.

DC Voting Rights: The House vote on the DC Voting Rights Act has been pushed back until next week, as leadership figures out how to prevent the GOP from adding language that strips most of what remains of DC’s gun laws (after the Supreme Court partially struck them down last year).

2010 House: The Hill has a nice preview of some of the hot House races in two years, and candidates bubbling up to fill those slots.