There’s been a surprising amount of activity in the Rhode Island governor’s race in the last couple weeks, as two likely candidates pulled out of contention. On the Dem side, Providence mayor David Cicilline (who, if he won, would be the nation’s first governor to be openly GLBT when elected) announced he would run for another mayoral term instead. State treasurer Frank Caprio seems to have the inside track toward the nomination, at least in terms of fundraising, although Lt. Gov. Elizabeth Roberts and AG Patrick Lynch are also looking at the race.
On the GOP side, former Cranston mayor (and near winner of the last GOP senate primary) Steve Laffey also declined. He may have sensed that his staunch conservative profile (remember that he was the Club for Growth’s pony in the 2006 election) wouldn’t play well in the general election. St. Rep. Joe Trillo may be the GOP’s last best shot, inasmuch as he’s the only Republican left who seems interested.
One other wild card, though, is that ex-senator Lincoln Chafee is “very, very seriously” considering a gubernatorial bid as an independent. This is a difficult scenario to wargame, since Chafee has the Republican pedigree but would assumedly be running a left-of-center campaign (for all I know, possibly to the left of the Democrat). However, if Chafee is matched against an mediocre Dem and a little-known GOPer, Chafee may very well have a shot at pulling it off, in something like a 35-40-25 split. A Chafee win wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world (he’d probably be to the left of a number of Democratic governors in other states), but right now it looks like the only scenario where the Dems wouldn’t pick up this seat.