Tag: Texas redistricting

Previously, I created a 24R-12D map predicting Texas redistricting.  Since then, my reading of the tea leaves (mostly Aaron Pena’s party switch) has convinced me to revise my predictions somewhat.  At the very least we can expect the state to pass a more Republican friendly map, which will almost certainly be challenged in the courts.  Something close to the previously drawn map might be enacted if the state loses the court battle.  This map then is more of a prediction of what the state might pass before the court battle.  

The map has the following objectives:

1) Keep all incumbents with their base voters, except McCaul.

2) Draw a Republican safe district for McCaul.

3) Draw a new non-VRA Republican safe district for Farenthold in Corpus Christi.

4) Draw two new Republican safe districts in Harris and Johnson.

5) Draw two VRA swing districts for Canseco and Pena in south Texas.

6) Draw a new VRA Democratic safe district in DFW.

7) Draw a VRA Democratic safe district in Austin.

The data is based upon the 2010 census.  For the partisan data, I matched the precincts that matched the 2008 test data precincts, and then I used regression models based upon the county level voting and demographics for each of the parties on the remaining precincts.  Based upon residual analysis and validation data sets, this approach appears to be pretty accurate.  Here are the maps with the pretty colors.  (I used only nine colors that I duplicated each four times.)

The state.

Greater Houston.

DFW.

Central Texas.

The Valley.

El Paso.

CD 1: (Yellow) [31% Obama – 69% McCain, Wh 64%, Bl 18%, Hisp 15%] Tyler based district for Gohmert.

CD 2: (Brown) [42% Obama – 58% McCain, Wh 50%, Bl 22%, Hisp 15%] Northeast Harris/Jefferson based district for Poe.

CD 3: (Silver) [42% Obama – 58% McCain, Wh 52%, Bl 11%, Hisp 20%] Plano based district for Sam Johnson.

CD 4: (Indigo) [31% Obama – 69% McCain, Wh 69%, Bl 11%, Hisp 14%] Rockwall based district for Hall.

CD 5: (Blue) [41% Obama – 59% McCain, Wh 55%, Bl 15%, Hisp 26%] Dallas based district for Hensarling.

CD 6: (Red) [33% Obama – 67% McCain, Wh 65%, Bl 13%, Hisp 18%] Ellis County/Arlington based district for Barton.  

CD 7: (Violet) [45% Obama – 55% McCain, Wh 53%, Bl 9%, Hisp 26%] Houston based district for Culberson.  There is almost certainly a way to make this district safer than currently drawn.  

CD 8: (Silver) [24% Obama – 76% McCain, Wh 74%, Bl 6%, Hisp 16%] Montgomery County based district from Brady.

CD 9: (Silver) [71% Obama – 29% McCain, Wh 13%, Bl 29%, Hisp 43%] Houston based district for Al Green.

CD 10: (Brown). [40% Obama – 60% McCain, Wh 70%, Bl 4%, Hisp 22%] Austin/West Texas district for McCaul. Previously, I drew McCaul to Johnson County.  However, since I am no longer drawing West Texas districts for both Canseco and a VRA-protected Democrat, I had more real estate for McCaul to the West.

CD 11: (Yellow) [31% Obama – 69% McCain, Wh 60%, Bl 3%, Hisp 33%] Midland based district for Conaway that now helps crack Austin.

CD 12: (Blue) [39% Obama – 61% McCain, Wh 56%, Bl 8%, Hisp 32%] Fort Worth based district for Granger.

CD 13: (Gren) [24% Obama – 76% McCain, Wh 69%, Bl 6%, Hisp 21%] West Texas based district for Thornberry.  

CD 14: (Red) [36% Obama – 64% McCain, Wh 57%, Bl 11%, Hisp 28%] Galveston based district for Paul.

CD 15: (Silver) [67% Obama – 33% McCain, Wh 9%, Bl 0%, Hisp 89%] Hidalgo County based district for Hinojosa that now goes into Cameron.  In the previous 24-12 map, several comments noted that a similar district may be too Hispanic.  However, based upon my reading of Lulac v. Perry, this was not established.  If there is another court case that established that districts may not be too Hispanic, then please let me know.  

CD 16: (Red) [66% Obama – 34% McCain, Wh 13%, Bl 2%, Hisp 82%] El Paso based district for Reyes.

CD 17: (Orange) [37% Obama – 63% McCain, Wh 60%, Bl 15%, Hisp 21%] College Station/Waco based district for Flores that now goes East. Chet Edwards could make a comeback, but I doubt it.

CD 18: (Green) [84% Obama – 16% McCain, Wh 10%, Bl 45%, Hisp 40%] Houston based district for Jackson.

CD 19: (Violet) [27% Obama – 73% McCain, Wh 57%, Bl 5%, Hisp 36%] Lubbock based district for Neugebauer.

CD 20: (Violet) [65% Obama – 35% McCain, Wh 17%, Bl 6%, Hisp 74%] San Antonio based district for Gonzalez.

CD 21: (Red) [41% Obama – 59% McCain, Wh 52%, Bl 9%, Hisp 34%] San Antonio based district for Smith.

CD 22: (Orange) [40% Obama – 60% McCain, Wh 48%, Bl 13%, Hisp 24%] Sugar Land based district for Olson.

CD 23: (Indigo) [51% Obama – 49% McCain, Wh 28%, Bl 3%, Hisp 65%] North Bexar based district for Canseco.  As noted previously, this district is very similar to his current district, and Democrats will likely win it back before the end of the decade.

CD 24: (Yellow) [38% Obama – 62% McCain, Wh 59%, Bl 10%, Hisp 19%] Southlake/Coppell based district for Marchant. This district is significantly safer than his current district.

CD 25: (Orange) [64% Obama – 36% McCain, Wh 35%, Bl 11%, Hisp 50%] Austin based district for Doggett is now VRA protected.

CD 26: (Orange) [36% Obama – 64% McCain, Wh 67%, Bl 7%, Hisp 18%] Flower Mound/Denton based district for Burgess that no longer cracks the African American community in southeast Fort Worth.

CD 27: (Blue) [47% Obama – 53% McCain, Wh 31%, Bl 3%, Hisp 65%] New Hidalgo based VRA district for Pena.  This district is obviously the biggest case against this map, because it retrogresses the old CD 27 and split Nueces County. If not ruled out by the courts though, it would be a huge Democratic target that they would have an excellent chance of winning before the end of the decade.

CD 28: (Brown) [73% Obama – 27% McCain, Wh 6%, Bl 0%, Hisp 93%] Laredo based district for Cuellar.  Previously, I drew this one less safe.  However, if the Republicans are going to pack, then they will almost certainly pack with Cuellar, who is probably in good shape no matter what.  

CD 29: (Blue) [63% Obama – 37% McCain, Wh 12%, Bl 10%, Hisp 76%] Houston based district for Gene Green.

CD 30: (Indigo) [74% Obama – 26% McCain, Wh 21%, Bl 46%, Hisp 27%] Dallas based district for Eddie Bernice Johnson that now goes into the African American communities in East Arlington and Southeast Fort Worth.

CD 31: (Indigo) [44% Obama – 56% McCain, Wh 63%, Bl 7%, Hisp 22%] Williamson County based district for Carter.

CD 32: (Violet) [44% Obama – 56% McCain, Wh 59%, Bl 10%, Hisp 22%] North Dallas based district for Sessions.   Like CD 24, this district is significantly safer than his current district.

CD 33: (Green) [34% Obama – 66% McCain, Wh 64%, Bl 12%, Hisp 19%] New Johnson County based district for some Republican like Brian Birdwell.  

CD 34: (Green) [71% Obama – 29% McCain, Wh 15%, Bl 18%, Hisp 64%] New Dallas based VRA district for some Democrat like Royce West or Rafael Anchia.

CD 35: (Brown) [40% Obama – 60% McCain, Wh 45%, Bl 5%, Hisp 47%] Corpus Christi based district for Farenthold.  It is no longer a VRA district since it extends north.

CD 36: (Yellow) [35% Obama – 65% McCain, Wh 51%, Bl 11%, Hisp 28%] New Harris County based district for some Republican like Dan Patrick or Debbie Riddle.

Overall 24 R – 10 D – 2 Swing.

I imagine that there are several Democrats worried about such a map as this one, and they are hoping the Obama DOJ and/or Lulac is prepared to prosecute such a map. While I do hope such a map is prosecuted, since it clear cracks Nueces, I actually think that this may be Nietzsche map for Democrats.    In the previous 24-12 map, there was not a single swing district for Democrats to target, whereas in this 24-10-2 map there are two in South Texas.  I am sure most Democrats would prefer 2 safe districts rather than 2 swing districts, which is the net difference between the two maps.  However, Democrats would probably spend upwards of $2-$4 million every other year in South Texas on 2 districts that will likely turn Democratic eventually.  That could dramatically improve the local parties in Hidalgo and Bexar, which is necessary for the state to turn blue.  A similar example would be Martin Frost’s district.  Yes, Democrats lost one of their best congressmen.  However, many Dallas Democrats will point to the money spent on the 2004 CD-32 race as one of the reasons for Dallas turning solidly blue, which it is today.  Furthermore, Dallas Democrats are likely to get back a district similar to Frost’s old district in this round of redistricting anyway.  So, in the end, Dallas Democrats lost a powerful congressman for 6 years, while they rapidly built themselves into a powerful local party that claims most of the county positions.  Meanwhile Republicans gained a backbencher named Kenny Marchant.  Certainly having your backs up against a wall in swing districts is not the preferred method of party building.  However, there is no doubt that well-built turnout operations in Bexar and Hidalgo would pay dividends at the top of the ticket.

[UPDATE 1] I should have mentioned this originally.  I would be remiss in not giving lots of credit to Greg Wythe.  His posts on Lloyd Doggett and Aaron Pena were inspirations for CDs 25 & 27 on this map.  Also, rdelbov has been predicting a similar set of districts in South Texas for some time.

[UPDATE 2] I found this map at RRH, which is pretty similar but ever so slightly more friendly to Democrats.  In any case, it leads me to believe even more that this is something the Texas GOP might try.

[UPDATE 3] Thanks to Kuff and Greg for the links to this diary.  To those of you coming to this diary from their links, welcome.  

With Texas looking to gain four seats after the Census, I decided to gerrymander Texas to protect the current twenty Republican representatives. In my plan, I try to create a realistic-looking map and I try to follow the VRA. In my opinion, there will need to be at least two, maybe three new VRA-protected Hispanic-majority seats. My plan draws two, but they’re not slam-dunks for Democrats, unless Arizona’s “papers, please” law mobilizes Hispanics to actually, well, vote.  Republicans will pick up two of the new seats for sure, and probably the third.

With the GOP likely in control of the House, definitely the Senate, a quite possibly the governor’s mansion, this is what I think the trifecta might do.

In the end, only two white Democrats should survive this plan, unless Gene Green gets primaried by an ambitious Hispanic politician. Also, Ciro Rodriguez-who doesn’t even live there in the 23rd anymore-gets a pretty tough district.

In the end, this plan should result in a 26-10 Republican majority, while substantially protecting all Republican incumbents. At the end of the decade, though, this could change. The ideal population numbers are all within a 1000, meaning the districts can change a little to get to the ideal number, 0. There is 3,963 people who I can’t find on the map; they voted 62-38 for McCain.

After reading the write up, scroll down to see my summary at the end.

Please enjoy!

P.S. I worked forever on this, so I will go crazy if I see some b.s. diary go up and bump it down. Y’all know what I’m talking about.

METROPLEX

TX-3 PURPLE

Incumbent: Sam Johnson (R-Plano)

Counties: Collin

Cities of Note: Plano, Allen, Frisco, Wylie, McKinney

Obama: 38%

McCain: 61%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 42-57

White: 76 Black: 5 Hispanic: 10 Asian: 9 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Republican

The district is completely based in Collin County, which has grown tremendously. Johnson is safe and will be succeeded by a conservative Republican if he retires.

TX-5 YELLOW

Incumbent: Jeb Hensarling (R-Dallas)

Counties: Anderson, Henderson, Wood, Rains, Cherokee (Part), Dallas (Part), Tarrant (Part), Kaufman (Part)

Cities of Note: Arlington, Mansfield, Dallas, Mesquite

Obama: 41%

McCain: 58%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 36-63

White: 71 Black: 13 Hispanic: 13 Asian: 4 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Republican

TX-12 LIGHT BLUE

Incumbent: Kay Granger (R-Fort Worth)

Counties: Tarrant (Part), Wise (Part), Parker (Part)

Cities of Note: Fort Worth

Obama: 37%

McCain: 62%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 36-63

White: 67 Black: 5 Hispanic: 23 Asian: 5 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Republican

The district gets smaller, but Granger should continue to be comfortable here.

TX-17 DARK BLUE

Incumbent: VACANT

Counties: Hood, Somerville, Johnson, Hill, Tarrant (Part)

Cities of Note: Arlington

Obama: 35%

McCain: 64%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 32-67

White: 77 Black: 7 Hispanic: 12 Asian: 4 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Likely Republican if Edwards runs; Safe Republican otherwise

Chet Edwards must be really annoying for Republicans. I drew a new Arlington-based district, with some of Edwards’ old exurban territory. Like I wrote, part of the DeLaymander’s success was that Democratic incumbents had to run in areas unfamiliar to them. As talented as he is, I don’t see Edwards winning in reflexively Republican urban areas in Tarrant County. Plus, Waco isn’t even in the district, so he’d have to move. This might finally dislodge him.

TX-24 DARK PURPLE

Incumbent: Kenny Marchant (R-Coppell)

Counties: Dallas (Part), Tarrant (Part), Denton (Part)

Cities of Note: Coppell, Irving, Dallas

Obama: 39%

McCain: 60%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 44-55

White: 65 Black: 7 Hispanic: 20 Asian: 8 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Republican

TX-26 GRAY

Incumbent: Michael Burgess (R-Lewisville)

Counties: Denton (Part), Tarrant (Part)

Cities of Note: Denton, Lewisville, Frisco

Obama: 35%

McCain: 64%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 41-58

White: 80 Black: 5 Hispanic: 11 Asian: 4 Native American:  0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Republican

TX-30 DALLAS ORANGY COLOR

Incumbent: Eddie Bernice Johnson (D-Dallas)

Counties: Dallas (Part), Tarrant (Part)

Cities of Note: Dallas, Fort Worth

Obama: 83%

McCain: 17%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 82-18

White: 22 Black: 52 Hispanic: 22 Asian: 3 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Democratic

The district now goes into Tarrant to take in black-majority precincts to create a new VRA-protected black-majority seat in the Metroplex.

TX-32 ORANGE

Incumbent: Pete Sessions (R-Dallas)

Counties: Rockwall, Dallas (Part)

Cities of Note: Dallas, Garland, Richardson, Rockwall

Obama: 40%

McCain: 58%

Old District (Obama-McCain):

White: 71 Black: 7 Hispanic: 15 Asian: 6 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Republican

Adding Rockwall County makes Sessions safer.

TX-33 DARKISH BLUE (Entirely in Dallas)

Incumbent: VACANT SEAT

Counties: Dallas

Cities of Note: Dallas

Obama: 67%

McCain: 32%

White: 25 Black: 17 Hispanic: 53 Asian: 4 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Democratic

A new Dallas-based VRA-protected Hispanic seat.

HOUSTON AREA

TX-2 GREEN

Incumbent: Ted Poe (R-Humble)

Counties: Harris, Liberty, Orange, Jasper, Orange, Jefferson (Part)

Cities of Note: Humble, Baytown, Beaumont

Obama: 36%

McCain: 63%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 40-60

White: 68 Black: 15 Hispanic: 13 Asian: 3 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Republican

Poe gets safer by subtracting a chunk of Beaumont and adding Jasper, Newtown, and Orange Counties. The Harris part of the district remains very conservative, so Poe should have no problems here until 2020 redistricting-or a sooner redistricting, if history is a guide.

TX-7 LIGHT GRAY

Incumbent:  VACANT

Counties: Fayette, Harris (Part), Colorado (Part), Fort Bend (Part), Lavaca (Part)

Cities of Note: Houston

Obama: 40%

McCain: 60%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 41-58

White: 70 Black: 8 Hispanic: 14 Asian: 8 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Republican

By splitting remaining territory in Harris, one can make two pretty-safe urban Republican seats based in Houston. A lot of this is Culberson’s old district, but I think he’d run in the new 36th, which contains his home and is one point more Republican. The district might be competitive eventually, but for now it’s safely Republican.

TX-8 LIGHTISH BLUE

Incumbent: Kevin Brady (R-The Woodlands)

Counties: Hardin, Tyler, Polk, San Jacinto, Walker, Grimes, Madison, Leon, Houston, Cherokee, Montgomery (Part), Jefferson (Part)

Cities of Note: Beaumont, Huntsville

Obama: 31%

McCain: 68%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 26-74

White: 75 Black: 13 Hispanic: 9 Asian: 2 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Republican

When the district was drawn in the DeLaymander, it was designed to unseat any East Texas Democrats. Now that it has done so, I can stop wasting so many Republican votes. I split Brady’s base in Montgomery, and I added some Democratic precincts in Beaumont. Still, it’s insanely Republican, and Montgomery should continue to grow, making it even more so.

TX-9 TURQUOISE

Incumbent: Al Green (D-Houston)

Counties: Harris (Part), Fort Bend (Part)

Cities of Note: Houston

Obama: 76%

McCain: 23%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 77-23

White: 17 Black: 37 Hispanic: 34 Asian: 12 Native American: 0 Other: 1

Projected: Safe Democratic

TX-14 ARMY GREEN

Incumbent: Ron Paul (R-Lake Jackson)

Counties: Chambers, Matagorda, Jackson, Calhoun, Brazoria (Part), Harris (Part), Galveston (Part)

Cities of Note: Galveston, Baytown, Texas City, League City, Freeport

Obama: 37%

McCain: 62%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 33-66

White: 59 Black: 11 Hispanic: 27 Asian: 3 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Republican

An urban-suburban-exurban leftovers district, Paul and his nutty views should be safe here.

TX-18 HOUSTON YELLOW

Incumbent: Sheila Jackson-Lee (D-Houston)

Counties: Harris

Cities of Note: Houston

Obama: 79%

McCain: 20%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 22-77

White: 18 Black: 46 Hispanic: 31 Asian: 4 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Democratic

The 18th is another safe black-plurality district in Houston.

TX-22 BROWN

Incumbent: Pete Olson (R-Sugar Land)

Counties: Harris (Part), Fort Bend (Part), Brazoria (Part), Galveston (Part)

Cities of Note: Sugar Land, Pearland, Pasadena

Obama: 39%

McCain: 60%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 41-58

White: 63 Black: 8 Hispanic: 18 Asian: 11 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Republican

The old DeLay seat, it gets smaller, but is still safe for Olson, who beat a great candidate in Lampson in 2008.

TX-29 GREENISH GRAY

Incumbent: Gene Green (D-Houston)

Counties: Harris

Cities of Note: Houston

Obama: 66%

McCain: 33%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 62-38

White: 18 Black: 11 Hispanic: 68 Asian: 2 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Democratic

TX-36 YELLOWY ORANGE

Incumbent: John Culberson (R-Houston)

Counties: Harris

Cities of Note: Houston

Obama: 39

McCain: 60

Old District (Obama-McCain): 41-58 (7th District)

White: 64 Black: 8 Hispanic: 20 Asian: 8 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Republican

See TX-7 for analysis.

AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO

TX-10 PINK

Incumbent: Michael McCaul (R-Austin)

Counties: Lee, Burleson, Washington, Austin, Waller, Travis (Part), Montgomery (Part), Harris (Part)

Cities of Note: Austin, Conroe

Obama: 36%

McCain: 62%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 44-54

White: 72 Black: 9 Hispanic: 15 Asian: 4 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Republican

Seeing how Montgomery County has grown tremendously since 2000, I split it up into two districts to help McCaul. The district loses some precincts in Austin and Harris County. If I were a Republican (I’m not), I’d feel pretty good about McCaul until 2020.

TX-20 BEIGE

Incumbent: Charlie Gonzalez (D-San Antonio)

Counties: Bexar

Cities of Note: San Antonio

Obama: 71%

McCain: 27%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 64-36

White: 14 Black: 7 Hispanic: 77 Asian: 1 Native American: 0 Other: 1

Projected: Safe Democratic

The district gets more Hispanic and more Democratic. Gonzalez should be, and will be, fine.

TX-21 DARK RED

Incumbent: Lamar Smith (R-San Antonio)

Counties: Kendall, Comal, Hays (Part), Travis (Part), Bexar (Part)

Cities of Note: San Antonio, Austin

Obama: 38%

McCain: 61%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 41-58

White: 74 Black: 3 Hispanic: 19 Asian: 4 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Republican

Smith is entrenched and should be fine here. I’d be concerned about Travis County’s booming population down the road, but for now the Travis part is swingy or leans Republican. Safe.

TX-25 PINKISH RED

Incumbent: Lloyd Doggett (D-Austin)

Counties: Travis

Cities of Note: Austin

Obama: 71%

McCain: 27%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 59-40

White: 49 Black: 11 Hispanic: 34 Asian: 5 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Democratic

Now entirely in Austin, Doggett is safe as can be.

TX-28 LIGHT URPLE

Incumbent: Henry Cuellar (D-Laredo)

Counties: La Salle, Frio, Atascosa, Webb (Part), Bexar (Part), Wilson (Part), Guadalupe (Part), Caldwell (Part), Bastrop (Part)

Cities of Note: Laredo, San Antonio, San Marcos, Bastrop

Obama: 53%

McCain: 46%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 56-44

White: 36 Black: 4 Hispanic: 57 Asian: 2 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Democratic

The district changes a lot. It’s a lot more San Antonio heavy, and Cuellar’s home might not be even in the district. Still, it should elect a Hispanic Democrat,

TX-35 PURPLE

Incumbent: Ciro Rodriguez (D-San Antonio)

Counties: Mitchell, Nolan, Sterling, Coke, Runnels, Coleman, Concho, Schleicher, Menard, Sutton, Kimble, Edwards, Real, Kerr, Bandera, Bexar (Part), Guadalupe (Part), Caldwell (Part), Brown (Part)

Cities of Note: San Antonio, Seguin

Obama: 39%

McCain: 60%

White: 58 Black: 7 Hispanic: 31 Asian: 3 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Likely Republican

A new district in the San Antonio area, I combined a strip of San Antonio with Republican-leaning suburbs and parts of rural West Texas. Should be safe, unless Hispanics start voting. Rodriguez lives in the district I think.

FAJITA STRIPS

TX-15 ORANGE

Incumbent: Ruben Hinjosa (D-Mercedes)

Counties: Refugio, Goliad, Bee, Aransas, Jim Wells, Brooks, Hidalgo (Part), Cameron (Part), San Patricio (Part)

Cities of Note: McAllen, Harlingen

Obama: 62%

McCain: 37%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 60-40

White: 17 Black: 1 Hispanic: 81 Asian: 1 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Democratic

Probably now the most Hispanic district in the nation, this would pass VRA muster because there is a new Hispanic district that borders it, the 34th District. McAllen based, it’s pretty similar to today’s 15th district. The new 15th should get incredibly more Democratic over the next decade if trends continue, especially if McAllen continues to grow.

TX-27 BLUEISH GREEN

Incumbent: Solomon Ortiz (D-Corpus Christi)

Counties: Nueces, Kleberg, Kenedy, Willacy, Cameron

Cities of Note: Brownsville, Corpus Christi

Obama: 53%

McCain: 46%

Old District (Obama-McCain):

White: 27 Black: 2 Hispanic: 69 Asian: 2 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Democratic

TX-34 LIGHT GREEN

Incumbent:

Counties: Starr, Zapata, Jim Hogg, Duval, McMullen, Live Oak, Karnes, Gonzales, DeWitt, Victoria, Hidalgo (Part), Wilson (Part) Lavaca (Part), Colorado (Part), Wharton (Part), Fort Bend (Part)

Cities of Note: McAllen, Rosenberg, Victoria

Obama: 49%

McCain: 50%

Old District (Obama-McCain):

White: 27 Black: 3 Hispanic: 69 Asian: 1 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Tossup

A newly-created McAllen-based district, it’s swingy territory. I think it should elect a conservative Hispanic Democrat, but it has a R-leaning bent and should probably would, at first, elect a Republican Hispanic.

EVERYTHING ELSE

TX-16 GREEN

Incumbent: Silvestre Reyes (D-El Paso)

Counties: El Paso (Part)

Cities of Note: El Paso

Obama: 65%

McCain: 34%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 66-33

White: 18 Black: 3 Hispanic: 77 Asian: 2 Native American: 0 Other: 1

Projected: Safe Democratic

No difference really, but it gets smaller. Safe Democratic.

TX-1 DARK BLUE

Incumbent: Louie Gohmert (R-Tyler)

Counties: Smith, Upshur, Gregg, Harrison, Nacogdoches, Shelby, Panola, Angelina, San Augustin, Sabine, Marion (Part)

Cities of Note: Tyler, Longview, Lufkin, Marshall

Obama: 30%

McCain: 69%

Old District (Obama-McCain):

White: 70 Black: 19 Hispanic: 9 Asian: 1 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Republican

Not much has changed. It loses a little land due to population growth. East Texas should keep electing Republicans. Gohmert, as crazy as he is, is safe.

TX-4 RED

Incumbent:  VACANT

Counties: Fannin, Lamar, Red River, Bowie, Cass, Morris, Camp, Titus, Hopkins, Delta, Hunt, Marion (Part), Kaufman (Part), Collin (Part), Dallas (Part)

Cities of Note: Paris, Dallas, Mesquite

Obama: 35%

McCain: 64%

Old District (Obama-McCain):

White: 73 Black: 14 Hispanic: 10 Asian: 3 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Republican

It’s pretty much Ralph Hall’s district, but I couldn’t justify keep Rockwall County in the district; Sessions needed to be made safer. Hall is getting up there in age, and he survived a good teabagging this year in the primary. Anyway, he could move here or another very conservative Republican could run here.

TX-6 DARK TURQUOISE

Incumbent: Joe Barton (R-Ennis)

Counties: Ellis, Navarro, Freestone, Limestone, Falls, Robertson, Brazos, Bell (Part), Milam (Part)

Cities of Note: Ennis, Bryan, Temple, Killeen

Obama: 36%

McCain: 63%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 40-60

White: 65 Black: 15 Hispanic: 16 Asian: 4 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Republican

I make no apologies (heh) to Barton for taking out Arlington, as he gets an exurban and pretty safe new district. However, Edwards might consider taking a shot at him, as Temple and Bryan are now in the district. Still, I would feel good about Barton’s chances.

TX-19  LIGHT GREEN

Incumbent: Randy Neugebauer (R-Lubbock), Chet Edwards (D-Waco)

Counties: Lubbock, Crosby, Motley, Dickens, King, Stonewall, Haskell, Throckmorton, Young, Erath, Comanche, Bosque, McLennan, Hamilton (Part), Palo Pinto (Part), Hamilton (Part), Bell (Part)

Cities of Note: Lubbock, Waco

Obama: 33%

McCain: 66%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 27-72

White: 66 Black: 10 Hispanic: 20 Asian: 2 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Leans Republican

This district will be a Lubbock vs. Waco district, with a spaghetti strange of rural West Texas in between. Edwards would have to get acquainted with a new district in inhospitable West Texas. Edge to “It’s a Baby Killer.”

TX-13 BEIGE

Incumbent: Mac Thornberry (R-Clarendon)

Counties: A lot

Cities of Note: Wichita Falls, Amarillo, Denison

Obama:

McCain:

Old District (Obama-McCain): 23-76

White: Black: Hispanic: Asian: Native American: Other:

Projected:

TX-11 LIGHT ARMY GREEN

Incumbent: Mike Conaway (R-Midland)

Counties: A lot

Cities of Note: Midland, Abilene, Amarillo

Obama: 22

McCain: 77

Old District (Obama-McCain): 24-75

White: Black: Hispanic: Asian: Native American: Other:

Projected: Safe Republican

I think this becomes the safest GOP seat in the country…

TX-23 LIGHT BLUE

Incumbent: OPEN SEAT

Counties: Medina, Uvalde, Dimmit, Zavala, Maverick, Kinney, Val Verde, Terrell, Brewster, Presidio, Jeff Davis, Culberson, Hudspeth, Reeves, Loving, Winkler, Ector, Howard, Glasscock, Ward, Crane, Upton, Reagan, Tom Green, Irion, Crockett, El Paso (Part), Webb (Part), Andrews (Part)

Cities of Note: El Paso, Laredo, San Angelo, Odessa

Obama: 42%

McCain: 57%

Old District (Obama-McCain):

White: 36 Black: 3 Hispanic: 60 Asian: 1 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Likely Republican

A VRA-protected seat, it’s more Hispanic than the current 23rd. It’s way more Republican now, a net of 18 points more. Ciro Rodriguez doesn’t live here anymore, and the district is based in three different population centers: San Angelo, Odessa, and Northern Laredo.  A Blue Dog Hispanic could win here eventually, as Hispanics in the area might, you know, vote eventually. This district is likely going to go to an Hispanic Republican, but down the road, the huge 23rd might flip.

TX-31 LIGHT MUSTARD YELLOW

Incumbent: John Carter (R-Round Rock)

Counties: Williamson, Burnett, Blanco, Gillespie, Llano, Mason, San Saba, McCulloch, Mills, Lampasas, Coryell, Hamilton (Part), Hamilton (Part), Milam (Part)

Cities of Note: Round Rock, Cedar Park, Georgetown

Obama: 36%

McCain: 62%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 41-57

White: 75 Black: 6 Hispanic: 15 Asian: 3 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Republican

Again, this redistricting took countless hours. I kinda dared myself to try it out. I think it turned out pretty well…

Some thoughts: the DeLaymander was absolutely brilliant–in a nefarious sort of way. Just looking at the districts though, it’s almost inevitable that some districts start flipping our way. I think I used West Texas more effectively than it is now. I’ll add more later.

After seeing all the great maps here I’ve decide to give it a try.  This is my first attempt at redistricting a state and my first diary.  While doing this for the first time I kind of wished I had lived in a smaller state, but Texas is where I grew up and where I live.  Since this is my first attempt at redistricting a state I want constructive criticism, but please be gentle 🙂 especially the long-time observers of Texas Politics because I am sure some of my commentary may be a bit off on some of the areas I am less familiar with.  I used Daves Redistricting App for this.  Please note I am not exactly familiar with the VRA law and how to apply it because I am new at this so if someone would like to critique this map for that it would be appreciated.

With Bill White running for Governor and the Democrats a few seats from the majority in the House, what would a Democratic Redistricting of Texas look like?

My goals for doing a Democratic redistricting of Texas were to

1.  Create at least two new Democratic seats in DFW

2.  Clean up Travis County

3.  Clean up Harris County, add another Dem seat.

4.  Work to weaken several GOP incumbents including Sessions and Culberson.

All districts have a +/- 2.5% population deviation from the average.  I will describe each group of district based on metro area or geographic location.

East Texas

CD-1 Largely consists of the currently existing CD-4.  Like most of rural Texas it is very white, very conservative. 71% White, 15% African American, 10% Hispanic  Safe R

CD-5 now includes Ellis County and the City of Tyler and is out of Dallas County entirely.  This new district has the potential for a very entertaining primary between Joe Barton, Louie Gohmert and Jeb Hensarling.  70% White, 10% African American, 16% Hispanic  Safe R

CD-6 which had a significant chunk of its population in the DFW metro area is now entirely rural.  69% White, 15% African American, 12% Hispanic.  Safe R

CD-17 although this district is in Central Texas it shows up good in the East Texas pic.  I am one of the people who remains amazed at Chet Edwards-D ability to hold on to his heavily GOP district.  Unsure of how to protect him I only have a few choices since his district gained population so Bosque, Somervell, Madison and Grimes Counties have been removed from his district.  Waco and Byran/College Station are still within CD-17  This district is probably still a Toss-up as Edwards will have to work hard to maintain this seat.  67% White, 9% African American, 19% Hispanic

Greater Houston Area (the Rural/Suburban districts)

CD-33 is a rural district which extends from greater Houston to Bastrop Country which is southeast of Austin  which is a solid GOP seat.  61% White, 11% African American, 25% Hispanic.  Safe R

CD-22 is now almost entirely contained within Fort Bent County with small pieces in Waller and West Harris County.  Obama barely lost Fort Bend County, and despite being a minority-majority district I think this seat stays GOP.  44% White, 17% African American, 24% Hispanic, 12% Asian  Likely R

CD-14 Ron Paul isn’t going anywhere.  56% White, 8% African American, 30% Hispanic.  Safe R

CD-08 contains north suburban Houston, the district is largely split between the fast growing Montgomery County and North West Harris County. 71% White, 5% African American, 16% Hispanic, 5% Asian.  Safe R

CD-02 Rural/suburban Houston contains Beaumont and Port Arthur.  62% White,, 18% African American, 15% Hispanic.  Safe R

Greater Houston (the Urban/Suburban districts)

CD-09 Now rests entirely within Harris County, other than a small extension to the west of CD-07 this district remains largely unchanged.  17% White, 32% African American, 36% Hispanic, 11% Asian.  Safe-D

CD-07 is now more Urban, it has essentially been shifted a big to the east which moves it a bit into south Houston.  The conservative west part of his district has been annexed by conservative CD-08.  46% White, 12% African American, 33% Hispanic, 5% Asian.  Leans D

CD-18 and CD-29 were both redrawn to undo the ugliness of the previous districts.  CD-18 15% White, 30% African American, 49% Hispanic.  CD-29 17% White, 14% African American, 65% Hispanic.  Both remain safe D.  

CD-35 Contains a good chunk of the currently existing CD-22 and is on the cusp of being a minority-majority district. 53% White, 10% African American, 29% Hispanic, 4% Asian  Lean R

Travis County (Austin)

CD-10 Contains most of Austin.  54% White, 6% African American, 32% Hispanic, 5% Asian,  Safe D

CD-25 At first I thought I drew a GOP leaning seat here but it may be a Dem leaning seat.  This district contains the remainder of Austin as well as Round Rock, Georgetown and Cedar Park.  If Dems organize well enough this could very well be a Dem held seat.  56% White, 9% African American, 27% Hispanic, 5% Asian.  Toss-up

Bexar County (San Antonio)

CD-21  This district is heavily Hispanic, much of this district is part of the former CD-23 and CD-20.  Ciro Rodriguez may opt to run here instead of CD-23 for reasons which will be clear when CD-23 is described. 29% White, 4% Black, 61% Hispanic  Safe D

CD-20  Central and South San Antonio, like CD-21 this district is heavily Hispanic. 30% White, 6% Black, 60% Hispanic  Safe D

South and Southwest Texas

CD-27 Remains largely unchanged, just tightened up because of the population increase in South Texas. 20% White, 2% African American, 75% Hispanic  Safe D

CD-15 Much of the Rio Grande Valley.  Safe D

CD-28 This guy extends from South San Antonio all the way down to Hidalgo county. 34% White, 6%, African American, 56% Hispanic  Safe D

CD-23 Laredo is back in this heavily Hispanic district.  82% Hispanic and 15% White makes this the most Hispanic district in the state.  

CD-16 In El Paso remains largely unchaged and is a bit more compacted.  Safe D

West and Central Texas

CD-13 A true West Texas district!  Contains the cities of Amarillo and Lubbock.  An interesting note about this district is that it is only 57% White, the remainder is 33% Hispanic and 5% African American.  I don’t know much about West Texas but I was expecting a much higher percentage of white folk.  However given the demise of the rural Democrats in Texas this district remains in the GOP hands.  Safe R

CD-19  Midland-Odessa and Abilene are the cities in this geographically huge district. 58% White, 5% African American, 33% Hispanic.  Safe R

CD-11  This one encompasses a lot of Lamar Smiths former CD-21.  San Angelo and part of New Braunfels make up this heavily GOP district.  Loving County which is also the least populous County in the Country is also here. 68% White, 2 % African American, 26% Hispanic.  Stonewall, the birth place of President Lyndon Johnson is in this district.  Safe R

CD-31  Another rural conservative district located in Central Texas. 64% White, 12% African American, 18% Hispanic.  Safe R

CD-04  Although this district is part of the DFW Metroplex it shows up nice on this image.  This district includes the northern parts of Denton and Collin County which are two of the fastest growing counties in the state.  At 78% White, 4% African American and 12% Hispanic this rural district is a GOP stronghold.  Contains Wichita Falls, Sherman and Denison, the later is the birthplace of President Dwight Eisenhower.  Safe R

DFW Metroplex

CD-36 This district which contains several Far North Dallas suburbs including McKinney, Allen, Frisco, Flower Mound and Denton is solid GOP all the way.  68% White, 7% African American, 17% Hispanic.  Safe R

CD-12  The C shape of this district obviously stands rightly for “conservative”.  The most conservative parts of Americas second largest conservative urban county are here.  Conservative parts of south and west Arlington, West and North Tarrant County lock up this district as a solid GOP seat.  Safe R

CD-26 Situated in Central Fort Worth extending out into south Fort Worth and west into Arlington.  The Democratic Party would lock this one up. 37% White, 21% African American, 37% Hispanic.  Safe Dem

CD-24 This guy straddles the Dallas-Tarrant County line and is in an area of Dallas and Tarrant County where local Democrats have been having a lot of success in state House races the past few cycles.  42% White, 14% Black, 34% Hispanic.  Lean D

CD-30  This was the sole Democratic Representative in DFW after the redistricting of 2003.  CD-30 does remain the most African American in the state, however the district now grabs the conservative enclave of Highland Park in near the center of Dallas county. 25% White, 38% African American, 32% Hispanic.  Safe D

CD-03  Another district where local Democrats have been having great success at winning State House Seats.  42% White, 16% African American, 33% Hispanic and 6% Asian.  I really want classify this seat as Lean D but I don’t think it is quite there yet.  Toss-up

CD-34  Now the “What…” moment will be answered regarding this creatively drawn district.  This district is drawn to strengthen the Democratic presence in CD-32 and CD-03 by moving a lot of the strong GOP north Dallas areas into a safe GOP seat with Plano.  CD-34 cuts straight down into Dallas County and ropes up University Park, a conservative enclave just north of Highland Park.  Plano is one of the most conservative cities in the country and is almost entirely within this district. 64% White, 7% African American, 12% Hispanic, 12% Asian  Safe R

CD-32  This majority Hispanic district is now ready for to be picked up by a Dem.  Heavily Democratic portions of south Dallas are included and heavily GOP sections of north Dallas are included in CD-34.  28% White, 11% African American, 54% Hispanic.  Likely D

*UPDATE*

Wow, thanks everyone for the compliments and (very gentle) criticism – a great welcome to the SSP community! In particular, you've all decided to let me self-correct the mythical 37th leaning-Democratic district in central Houston without any (much-deserved) harassment. Once I decided that settling for incumbent protection and one new, solid Republican seat was optimism too far for the Texas Republican Party, I forgot to take it out, is all. You gotta admit, Greg Wythe's theorizing on it was pretty compelling.

*What to look out for*  This map is the accumulation of several weeks' occaisional free time, so I don't know that I'll be able to post an edit taking into account everyone's very good suggestions for a little while. However, look for better, district-by-district explanations, as Englishlefty was quite right: I wrote my diary as a Texan apportionment nerd to apportionment nerds everywhere; the slight was unintentional, I assure you.  I'll give everything the once over to take into account 2008 population estimates, and districts in Central and Southeast Texas will get an especially close review  (Sandlin has indeed moved to South Dakota and met himself a powerful woman.  Guess he wasn't that conservative).  And Chet  Edwards-centric commenters, you have not been forgotten! In the meantime, here's an updated map with district numbers.

—

A huge tip of the hat to Nathaniel90, who went and inspired me to consolidate my generalized interest in political process issues into one article. I've taken his attempt at Texas redistricting, whatever maps of previous Congresses that I can find, and tried to figure out how to read the information the State of Texas provides to produce the map that follows after the jump.

Yet another huge hat tip to Greg Wythe of Greg's Opinion, whose post on additional possibilities for Texas's four shiny new congressional seats was great help where the combined illumination of Nathaniel90 and my own meager internet search skills was not sufficient to deobfuscate the Republican political mind.  If you think of any of their proposals when you take a look at my map, it's because I did too.

I know I've gotten the county map from somewhere, too.  Probably Wikipedia, but knowing how much I tinker with maps I can't say for sure – if you see something that looks like yours, feel free to lambast me and I'll edit in a hat tip for you, too.

Follow me after the jump for the map and its explanation.

 So there you have it. I'd like to think that planning for the worst but hoping for the best includes charting out what one hopes the best would look like, and this is definitely it.  Eerily pre-DeLaymander is what my fellow political junky friends called it.  What I basically did was take the opportunity of astonishing population growth, and making lemonade out the lemon that is the GOP-trending rural Texas to allow bygones be bygones (who said moving on is the art of forgetting how much you hate the other guy without letting that bastard screw you over again?).

–(updated) I must admit, I gave only grudging solace to Michael McCaul, and I wish I could renumber all the old districts back to the way they were, but I don't know how the Texas Republicans would feel about that.  But the best thing about the now-25th, granularity at this level of zoom is such that I can just claim to have about the number necessary for a seat (it's at 725,000-ish per seat this time around, isn't it?) and leave it at that.  Hopefully Chet Edwards will find his new district to be a lot like his old district, because I indulged in one of the two fits of (egregious) sentimentality that are present on this map and gave him the chance to get back on I-35 where he started out.  John Carter can move to Granbury, the people there are nicer than the anti-liberals in Williamson County (“Keep Round Rock Mildly Eccentric”) anyways. If he and Representative Edwards decide to switch places, though, he'll find that Brazos and Walker Counties are (somehow) trending blue, long-term.

-Essentially, most of the Democrats targeted by DeLay were conservative Democrats, and I think everyone knew that by the time they were gone the national party would be too far to the left to have much more than a fifty-fifty chance of retaining the seat.  Nowhere is this more true than in East Texas, so what's the harm in reshaping our current districts to look a little like the old ones?  Jim Turner's or Max Sandlin's old districts could almost pass for attempts at gerrymandering top-of-the-ticket Republican voters, were it not for trends in Harris county and the moderately slower march to the GOP that is Smith and Nacadogches Counties.

(Although I'm not gonna lie, I like me a fighter, and Nick Lampson is him, so I did my due diligence on Ted Poe only to find out he was as inane a Republican Congressman as you could ask for, and decided it wouldn't hurt to try and give Lampson his old seat back)

-I couldn't really figure out a way to do DFW better than Nathaniel90, except that I didn't know exactly how the population was distributed in Tarrant County, so I figured I'd just treat it as if it was pretty much equally distributed except for the center of Fort Worth, and if I was egregiously wrong I could hope for the wisdom of large crowds to help me out.  Also, despite Martin Frost being instrumental in the idiotic gerrymander that did almost everything the Republicans did in 2003 but years earlier, and to the Republicans, I still like the guy – especially compared to Joe Barton.

-In South Texas, I liked Nathaniel90's idea of letting Republicans prove they're not completely lily white and proud of it by giving Henry Bonilla another chance at elected office – but I must admit, I checked his record, and where I could find it I did not see much trace of his district.  So I threw in some more Democrats than was perhaps wise to hopefully moderate our theoretical Henry Bonilla II out a little bit.  But hey, now that Webb County's got so many people, we've only got one “fajita strip” left!

-Last but not least, we've got West Texas, where the South Plains area was startlingly receptive to the Obama message – trend-wise, at least.  In not a single county did Obama brake the 40% mark of the vote, but it was still a huge improvement over Kerry, and even Gore to some extent.  Unfortunately, I'm pretty sure that even if we did manage to elect a Democrat there, he'd most likely just be another old, white, conservative, corruptible candidate for AgSec.  No, Charlie Stenholm isn't moving to Lubbock.

 Well, there you have it.  Any questions?  Concerns?  Criticisms?