SSP Daily Digest: 4/12 (Afternoon Edition)

CO-Sen: The nomination process in Colorado has worked its way up to the county-level assemblies now, and former state House speaker Andrew Romanoff still has an edge over appointed incumbent Michael Bennet in the race for Democratic Senate primary delegates. Romanoff has a 57-42 edge over Bennet, bolstered by strong numbers in the urban Denver and El Paso Counties.

CT-Sen: This may not turn out to be much, but it’s another drip-drip hurting Linda McMahon’s credibility. It’s been revealed that in 1989, she gave advance warning to a doctor, George Zahorian, of a pending federal investigation; Zahorian was later convicted of selling steroids to WWF wrestlers. (Only Zahorian was convicted; the government’s case against the WWF fell apart.)

IN-Sen: Take this with as much salt as you’d like, as it’s a leak of an Indiana GOP Senate primary poll to a right-wing blog and the leak doesn’t even say which candidate’s camp it came from, let alone who the pollster is. Nevertheless, it shows a tight race between Dan Coats and John Hostettler: Coats leads 29-26, with Marlin Stutzman not to be counted out either at 18.

MA-Sen: Here’s more evidence that Scott Brown is intent on trying to have a long career as a moderate New England Senator, rather than flaming out in half a term of teabagging glory. He said thanks but not thanks to appearing with Sarah Palin at a teabagger rally on Boston Common on Wednesday.

OH-Sen: Another big quarter for Rob Portman, who’s started to fall behind in recent polling against his Democratic opposition but who will have a huge cash advantage over whoever his opponent is. He pulled in $2.3 million last quarter, bringing his CoH total to a ridiculous $7.6 million.

WA-Sen: Here’s what may be a tea leaf that Dino Rossi isn’t likely to run for Senate this year: state Sen. Don Benton, who’s already in the race for the GOP and is a friend of Rossi, says “I don’t believe Dino would allow me to sacrifice my family time and my business if he was going to run for the U.S. Senate,” and “If he had serious plans, I really believe he would have told me that.” Of course, this may also be a shot across Rossi’s bow, especially since Benton also points out that his fundraising ($130K last quarter) has suffered as everyone watches Rossi instead.

PA-Sen, PA-Gov (pdf): I don’t know why so many small schools in the Northeast feel the need to have their very own polling operation, but now Muhlenberg College is getting in on the act too. Their apparently first look at the Senate race uses a likely voter model, so as you might expect, it gives a bit of a lead to Pat Toomey. Toomey leads Arlen Specter 47-40 and leads Joe Sestak 33-22 (with leaners). There’s a whole lotta undecideds in the gubernatorial race, but Tom Corbett has a clear advantage among those who’ve decided: he leads Dan Onorato 42-18, Jack Wagner 44-16, and Joe Hoffel 45-11.

GA-Gov: Ethics questions are continuing to follow around ex-Rep. Nathan Deal even though he’s left the House now, in order to pursue his gubernatorial bid. Turns out he spent $20K from his state campaign account to pay for legal fees related to the House Ethics inquiry into his car inspection business. The state’s ethics board says it’s unclear whether or not it’s a violation, as it’s a situation they’ve never dealt with before.

NY-Gov: With his teabag-flavored gubernatorial campaign only a few weeks old, Carl Paladino’s campaign manager is already in damage control mode, acknowledging today that, yes, his boss send out some e-mails to political and business contacts that were “off-color” and “politically incorrect.” If, by politically incorrect, you mean including an African tribal dance photo entitled “Obama Inauguration Rehearsal,” and hardcore bestiality photos.

PA-Gov: Two House members endorsed in the Democratic governor’s primary, and given their geographical connections, neither one should be a surprise. Pittsburgh-area Rep. Mike Doyle endorsed Allegheny Co. Exec Dan Onorato, while PA-01’sBob Brady (who just happens to be chair of the Philadelphia City Democrats in his spare time) backs state Sen. Anthony Williams. Getting the Philly machine officially behind Williams, currently lagging his opponents, may help him gain a little ground on his competition.

SC-Gov: AG Henry McMaster had a strong fundraising quarter in the race to replace Mark Sanford, pulling in $464K and sitting on $1.4 million CoH. He’s almost caught up with Rep. Gresham Barrett, who was last year’s fundraising leader; Barrett raised $427K and holds $1.5 million CoH.

HI-01: Looks like it’s turning into the DCCC vs. everybody else in the 1st. The AFL-CIO and Longshoremen, undeterred by the D-Trip’s preferences, are both weighing into the race with mailers on behalf of Colleen Hanabusa, pointing out Ed Case’s anti-labor record.

MI-01: More local politicians are starting to jump into the race in the 1st, with last Friday’s sudden departure of Bart Stupak. Democratic State Rep. Joel Sheltrown said he’ll get in the race (joining Connie Saltonstall, who had been challenging Stupak in the primary). One problem for Sheltrown, though, is that he’s a “troll” (i.e. from under the bridge, instead of from the Upper Peninsula, where the district’s center of gravity is). One other sorta-big-name possible contender who doesn’t quite live in the district, ex-Rep. Jim Barcia (who’s got gerrymandered out of MI-05 in 2002, dropped down to the state Senate, which he’s now term-limited out of), confirmed he wouldn’t run. Roll Call also has the names of a few other potential Dems that we haven’t mentioned yet, including state Reps. Jeff Mayes, Judy Nerat, and Steve Lindberg, and state Agriculture Director Don Koivisto. Other possible GOPers include state Sen. Jason Allen, former state Rep. Tom Casperson (who lost by a wide margin to Stupak in 2008), and former state Rep. Scott Shackleton.

NY-24: Republican repeat challenger Richard Hanna raised $350K in the first quarter for the race against Rep. Mike Arcuri; that’s on top of the $600K he loaned himself.

PA-04: The growing scandal surrounding the Orie family (centered on state Sen. Jane Orie, who allegedly had staff in her office working on campaign work on the state’s dime) spilled over into the 4th. Mary Beth Buchanan’s campaign manager, Kurt Acker, resigned on Friday after it came out that he was one of those Orie staffers participating in the violations.

TN-08: Looks like we’ve got a good case of the dueling rich guys in the GOP primary in the 8th: physician Ron Kirkland is reporting $607K raised last quarter. Throw in the $250K he lent himself, and he’s already drawn almost even with Stephen Fincher, who’s already gotten the NRCC’s imprimatur based on his own fundraising.

VA-05: Freshman Rep. Tom Perriello also put up excellent fundraising numbers this quarter, and that seems to have more to do with getting the base excited about him (with his tough vote in favor of HCR) rather than dipping into his own wallet. Perriello raised $600K in the first quarter, leaving him with $1.4 million CoH for what’s sure to be a bruising general election campaign.

WV-01: There have been some indications that Rep. Alan Mollohan was on the outs with the West Virginia Democratic establishment (starting top-down with Gov. Bob Manchin), but here’s an interesting clue that suggests otherwise: Mollohan’s primary opponent, state Sen. Mike Oliverio, complained at a candidate forum that he’d requested registered voter files from the state committee and hadn’t received them, and he wondered if Mollohan’s influence had anything to do with that.

Polltopia: Mark Blumenthal has some added nuance on the issue of the House generic ballot, which pundits have been pointing to lately as evidence of possible huge Republican gains in the House in November. The Gallup generic ballot poll does have some predictive value… but that’s only the final Gallup poll before the election, making it a not-terribly-reliable measure at this point in time.

Jurassic Park IV, or Redistricting Pennsylvania

(From the diaries with minor edits – promoted by DavidNYC)

As I’d promised in my diary on New Jersey, Pennsylvania would be the next state I’d tackle. This would  have been done a lot sooner, but those things called work and exams kind of got in the way….

My goal, flat out, was to carve more Democratic districts. I’m all for compactness when it comes to suitcases and mp3’s, but not when I’m gerrymandering states. Again, I kept Democratic Congresscritters in their homes.

Unlike New Jersey though, Pennsylvania is probably maxed-out when it comes to Democrats (save Gerlach and Dent, whose districts are certainly Democratic.) Pennsylvania is also losing one seat (most likely) in 2010, so I drew 18 seats on 2008 population estimates. I didn’t “merge” two districts per se, but more like took the 16th, 17th, and 19th and produced two districts from them.

I had the following goals in mind:

  • Dislodge Gerlach (6th) and Dent (15th) by increasing Democratic performance in their districts.

  • Give Dahlkemper (3rd), Altmire (4th), Murtha (12th), and Holden (17th) more favorable territory. They represent McCain districts now, I wanted to change those to Obama districts.

  • Maintain strength for Sestak (7th), Patrick Murphy (8th), Kanjorski (11th), and Schwartz (13th). They have decently strongly Democratic districts, which I wanted to maintain at their current levels.

  • Keep Brady (1st), Fattah (2nd), and Doyle (14th) in strongly Democratic districts, but perhaps not as absurdly strong as before. Obama scored 88%, 90%, and 70% respectively, I felt this could afford to be lowered somewhat. A corollary to this goal is keeping Fattah’s district majority Black. I didn’t bother with Brady’s currently plurality Black district, though it may still be.

Here’s the new map (click for full-size version):

Much more below the flip.

Again, to start, I used this map of Obama’s performance across the state, by municipality. As before, lightest shade is a margin of less than 5%, then 5 to 15, 15 to 25, 25 to 35, and the new uber-dark, which is a margin of 35+.

Going district by district, here’s what we’ve got. As a sidenote, I didn’t bother renumbering districts to make sense (which they don’t right now). I think it’s easier to keep core areas the same when numbering, since I think most of us automatically relate, for example, “PA-14” to Pittsburgh.

Summary statistics are: County, Population, Obama Votes, McCain Votes, Total Votes, Obama%, McCain%.

I’m going to go Northwest to Southeast, as opposed to in order by non-sensical district number. I think that makes the most sense.














































































































































3 689,046 169,632 139,373 314,100 54.01% 44.37%
Cameron 5,974 879 1,323 2,257 38.95% 58.62%
Centre 96,991 33,113 21,090 55,022 60.18% 38.33%
Clarion 11,906 2,701 2,626 5,432 49.72% 48.34%
Clearfield 38,795 7,372 7,835 15,582 47.31% 50.28%
Clinton 27,232 5,557 5,070 10,767 51.61% 47.09%
Crawford 88,880 16,780 20,750 38,134 44.00% 54.41%
Elk 32,914 7,290 6,676 14,361 50.76% 46.49%
Erie 279,255 75,775 50,351 127,691 59.34% 39.43%
Forest 4,946 1,038 1,366 2,468 42.06% 55.35%
McKean 20,003 3,579 3,628 7,370 48.56% 49.23%
Mercer 16,892 2,842 4,191 7,184 39.56% 58.34%
Venango 24,009 4,169 4,782 9,169 45.47% 52.15%
Warren 41,249 8,537 9,685 18,663 45.74% 51.89%

Sad to say, this district probably isn’t much more gerrymandered than its current counterpart. It contains the entirety of Erie and Crawford counties in the northwest, and starts a slow march towards State College. I’d hate to leave those Democratic votes behind, and plus they’re a good way to shore up Dahlkemper’s district, which Obama lost by 17 votes. It takes in the Democratic parts of Centre and Clinton counties on the east end, with some arms into Clarion and Venango. I’d like to think I succeeded, since Obama scored 45% in the 3rd’s part of Venango and 50% in Clarion, compared to 35% and 33% in the parts not in the 3rd. All in all, a 54% Obama district – a 6% increase from its current form.




















































4 689,397 182,724 168,763 356,152 51.31% 47.39%
Allegheny 389,960 110,152 102,177 214,148 51.44% 47.71%
Beaver 149,042 36,109 35,781 73,326 49.24% 48.80%
Lawrence 75,681 17,041 16,670 34,362 49.59% 48.51%
Mercer 74,714 19,422 14,135 34,316 56.60% 41.19%

Altmire is pretty much in the same boat as Dahlkemper, except with a district that Obama lost 44-55. There’s no need to complicate this by including any parts of Butler County, so this district sticks along the Ohio, Beaver, and Shenango Rivers up from Pittsburgh (but not including) to Sharon, through Allegheny, Beaver, Lawrence, and Mercer counties. It’s a point of pride for me that Obama won each county component. Specifically in Allegheny County, Altmire swaps out a bunch of Republican northern suburbs for friendlier stuff east of the city, notably Monroeville and Penn Hills. Obama scored 44% in the Allegheny portion of the old 4th, compard to 51% here. If Altmire didn’t live in Republican-leaning McCandless, there could have perhaps been more improvement. Anyways, this works out to a 51% Obama district – an improvement of 7%.




























































































18 689,231 136,738 218,177 359,372 38.05% 60.71%
Allegheny 127,747 30,252 41,789 72,634 41.65% 57.53%
Beaver 24,444 4,390 7,114 11,706 37.50% 60.77%
Butler 181,082 32,260 57,074 90,761 35.54% 62.88%
Greene 13,925 2,072 2,748 4,892 42.35% 56.17%
Lawrence 16,216 2,670 5,181 7,987 33.43% 64.87%
Mercer 25,909 4,147 8,239 12,668 32.74% 65.04%
Washington 82,349 18,019 27,503 46,141 39.05% 59.61%
Westmoreland 217,559 42,928 68,529 112,583 38.13% 60.87%

This district is what happens when you try to strip all the Republican territory out of the 3rd, 4th, and 12th districts and pack it together. Butler County has no place in a Democratic district, nor does the large chunk of Westmoreland County which is quickly trending away from us. Throw in some the northern Pittsburgh suburbs stripped out of Altmire’s district and the core of Tim Murphy’s old district, and you get this 38% – an 8% drop in Democratic performance.






















14 688,540 227,685 124,055 355,158 64.11% 34.93%
Allegheny 688,540 227,685 124,055 355,158 64.11% 34.93%

The 14th doesn’t change much – it keeps the entirety of the city of Pittsburgh and suburbs to the east like Swissvale and Doyle’s home in Forest Hills. Instead of reaching southwest, the new 14th looks south to the southern Pittsburgh suburbs like Upper St. Clair and Bethel Park. Arguably, this district is actually more compact than the current 14th. No worries for Mike F. Doyle though, since Obama still won 55% in the non-Pittsburgh part of the district.  Combine that with the 75% Obama scored in the city, and you get a 64% Democratic district, a drop of 6%.






































































































12 689,579 146,095 143,358 294,030 49.69% 48.76%
Allegheny 19,931 4,385 3,865 8,347 52.53% 46.30%
Armstrong 26,485 5,114 6,186 11,454 44.65% 54.01%
Cambria 131,716 29,955 28,623 59,705 50.17% 47.94%
Fayette 135,292 24,805 23,726 49,108 50.51% 48.31%
Greene 25,794 5,757 5,141 11,084 51.94% 46.38%
Indiana 55,368 12,477 12,254 25,068 49.77% 48.88%
Somerset 26,108 5,709 6,599 12,656 45.11% 52.14%
Washington 122,958 28,100 23,199 52,318 53.71% 44.34%
Westmoreland 145,927 29,793 33,765 64,290 46.34% 52.52%

It’s no secret Obama didn’t do all that hot in Southwest PA, and it’s painfully obvious here. Kerry won the old 12th, which Obama lost by about 1,000 votes. Trying to create an Obama district required some creative districting and ends up being more like connect-the-dots between traditionally Democratic Fayette and Greene counties, Johnstown (Murtha’s residence), Washington, the college town of Indiana, and Lower Burrell in Westmoreland. The old 12th pretty much packed all the Democratic votes in the area, so the increased population requirement really made me stretch. I think again, I have a strong case for this being more compact than the old 12th. Either way, it’s a slight improvement to a district Obama won by 3,000 votes, an improvement of 0.5%.












































































































































































9 689,087 102,284 191,267 298,149 34.31% 64.15%
Adams 5,926 1,018 1,671 2,739 37.17% 61.01%
Armstrong 42,940 6,024 12,356 18,627 32.34% 66.33%
Bedford 49,650 6,059 16,124 22,508 26.92% 71.64%
Blair 125,593 19,813 32,708 53,298 37.17% 61.37%
Cambria 14,271 2,496 3,372 5,965 41.84% 56.53%
Clarion 28,186 4,045 8,111 12,435 32.53% 65.23%
Clearfield 33,268 5,672 8,599 14,588 38.88% 58.95%
Cumberland 19,402 3,428 4,426 7,976 42.98% 55.49%
Fayette 9,667 1,090 2,054 3,172 34.36% 64.75%
Franklin 139,459 21,169 41,906 63,641 33.26% 65.85%
Fulton 14,261 1,576 4,642 6,306 24.99% 73.61%
Huntingdon 45,552 6,621 11,745 18,730 35.35% 62.71%
Indiana 32,520 4,588 7,473 12,236 37.50% 61.07%
Jefferson 45,151 6,447 12,057 18,904 34.10% 63.78%
Somerset 52,087 7,169 15,087 22,712 31.56% 66.43%
Venango 31,154 5,069 8,936 14,312 35.42% 62.44%

Moving into the ‘T’ now, this is the first of two extremely Republican districts. Arguably, there are two population centers, one in Altoona in Blair County and the other in Chambersburg in Franklin. From there, it moves northwest, picking up the parts of Somerset, Cambria, Indiana, and Armstrong not packed into Murtha’s 12th, and then the parts of Venango and Clarion not in Dahlkemper’s 3rd. At 34% Obama, this is the most Republican district in Pennsylvania and a 1% drop from the current 9th.










































































































































































































5 689,043 114,992 195,836 315,767 36.42% 62.02%
Berks 9,899 993 2,312 3,366 29.50% 68.69%
Centre 46,567 8,837 11,902 21,089 41.90% 56.44%
Clearfield 9,696 1,511 2,228 3,839 39.36% 58.04%
Clinton 10,002 1,540 2,434 4,024 38.27% 60.49%
Cumberland 199,164 43,028 57,531 102,130 42.13% 56.33%
Dauphin 43,419 8,423 15,149 23,834 35.34% 63.56%
Juniata 23,163 3,068 6,484 9,819 31.25% 66.04%
Lebanon 53,875 9,202 16,904 26,528 34.69% 63.72%
Lycoming 49,426 7,076 15,691 23,131 30.59% 67.84%
McKean 23,852 2,886 5,596 8,645 33.38% 64.73%
Mifflin 46,609 5,375 10,929 16,502 32.57% 66.23%
Montour 3,868 590 1,167 1,771 33.31% 65.89%
Northumberland 22,909 3,245 6,360 9,734 33.34% 65.34%
Perry 44,850 6,396 13,058 19,745 32.39% 66.13%
Potter 18,080 2,300 5,109 7,583 30.33% 67.37%
Schuylkill 10,533 1,776 3,294 5,139 34.56% 64.10%
Snyder 23,134 2,499 6,442 9,069 27.56% 71.03%
Tioga 24,641 3,610 7,527 11,305 31.93% 66.58%
Union 25,356 2,637 5,719 8,514 30.97% 67.17%

The is the other Republican district taking in a large chunk of the T. More packing of Republicans here, as this district on the east side swaps many tentacles with Chris Carney’s new 10th district. Any pockets of even-remotely Democratic friendliness are pulled out, including Williamsport and Sunbury. What’s left is expansive Republican space, centered in Cumberland County moving north towards the Northern Tier. At 36% Obama, this is a drop of 8%.
































































































































































































10 688,967 134,946 156,456 296,409 45.53% 52.78%
Berks 8,704 1,724 2,167 3,995 43.15% 54.24%
Bradford 61,626 10,306 15,057 25,884 39.82% 58.17%
Columbia 64,663 13,019 14,255 27,838 46.77% 51.21%
Dauphin 5,728 823 1,231 2,073 39.70% 59.38%
Lackawanna 44,778 13,784 10,806 24,913 55.33% 43.37%
Luzerne 11,637 2,044 3,020 5,153 39.67% 58.61%
Lycoming 67,880 11,305 14,589 26,316 42.96% 55.44%
Montour 14,368 2,757 3,388 6,216 44.35% 54.50%
Northumberland 68,307 11,083 12,655 24,201 45.80% 52.29%
Pike 57,102 11,493 12,519 24,285 47.33% 51.55%
Schuylkill 108,170 20,758 23,247 44,766 46.37% 51.93%
Snyder 14,849 2,883 3,458 6,410 44.98% 53.95%
Sullivan 6,556 1,233 1,841 3,131 39.38% 58.80%
Susquehanna 41,388 8,381 10,633 19,383 43.24% 54.86%
Tioga 16,194 2,780 3,799 6,679 41.62% 56.88%
Union 17,997 4,696 4,140 8,961 52.40% 46.20%
Wayne 51,139 9,892 12,702 22,932 43.14% 55.39%
Wyoming 27,881 5,985 6,949 13,273 45.09% 52.35%

You can’t win all of them, and this is the one district that wasn’t to my liking. I really wanted to protect Carney a bit more, but the territory simply wasn’t there to do that and protect the Democratic strength of Kanjorski’s 11th. I chose to hedge a bit and to keep the 11th strongly Democratic. It might be a waste to protect Kanjorski like that, but he’s got to retire eventually and we can definitely get a good Democrat out of Scranton. Thus, this district starts in Wayne and Pike counties, before moving through Susquehanna (Carney lives in Dimock) and northern Lackawanna counties. Lycoming County outside of Williamsport is stripped out as much as possible, and it gains Columbia County and a large chunk of Schuylkill County freed up from Holden’s 17th. Surprisingly, I still managed a gain of 0.5% to 45.5% Obama. Carney should be fine here regardless.




















































11 689,582 177,101 128,039 309,934 57.14% 41.31%
Carbon 62,326 13,464 12,957 27,050 49.77% 47.90%
Lackawanna 164,442 53,736 28,682 83,626 64.26% 34.30%
Luzerne 300,203 70,448 58,107 130,815 53.85% 44.42%
Monroe 162,611 39,453 28,293 68,443 57.64% 41.34%

Kanjorski was probably saved in 2008 by Obama’s coattails, and shoring up the 11th was one of my major goals. Surprisingly, this actually becomes more compact, too, it seems. What we get is a district centered on the Lackawanna Valley. 43% of this district is Wilkes-Barre and Luzerne County, and another 23% each for Scranton/Lackawanna County and Monroe County. All in all, a 57% Obama district, up 0.3% from the old 11th. Also a rare victory for compactness.


















































































17 689,314 176,601 148,808 329,673 53.57% 45.14%
Berks 52,440 11,062 13,461 24,959 44.32% 53.93%
Cumberland 6,969 1,850 1,782 3,719 49.74% 47.92%
Dauphin 199,854 59,866 40,264 101,138 59.19% 39.81%
Lancaster 229,139 60,406 52,477 114,386 52.81% 45.88%
Lebanon 72,551 14,108 17,410 32,035 44.04% 54.35%
Schuylkill 28,135 5,938 7,418 13,522 43.91% 54.86%
York 100,226 23,371 15,996 39,914 58.55% 40.08%

Connect the dots version 2.0 here, as we string together the cities of York, Harrisburg, Lancaster, and Tim Holden’s home in St. Clair in Schuylkill County, all of which are strongly Democratic. They’re counterbalanced by the Republican outlying portions of York, Dauphin, and Lancaster counties, though. However, 59% Obama performances in the 17th’s parts of Dauphin and York and a 53% showing in Lancaster anchor this 54% Obama district on balance, an improvement of 6% from the current 17th.








































































16 688,715 118,510 197,429 320,910 36.93% 61.52%
Adams 93,986 16,615 24,678 41,924 39.63% 58.86%
Berks 9,821 2,245 3,260 5,596 40.12% 58.26%
Chester 1,059 243 552 806 30.15% 68.49%
Dauphin 5,275 759 1,576 2,362 32.13% 66.72%
Lancaster 264,774 39,180 74,091 114,863 34.11% 64.50%
York 313,800 59,468 93,272 155,359 38.28% 60.04%

This is what remains of the old 16th and 19th districts once the Democratic cities are stripped out. There’s really not much to say about this district based in York and Lancaster, except that it’s the last “Republican” district we have to talk about, it only gets better from here. At 37% Obama, it’s a drop of 6% from the old 19th and 10% from the old 16th – which was intentional, of course.










































15 688,754 177,367 136,903 318,961 55.61% 42.92%
Berks 65,559 15,023 14,970 30,535 49.20% 49.03%
Lehigh 333,423 87,089 63,382 152,473 57.12% 41.57%
Northampton 289,772 75,255 58,551 135,953 55.35% 43.07%

Starting with the Lehigh Valley, the 15th continues to have the entirety of Northampton County. Lehigh County did have a bite taken out of it by the old pterodactyl of the 6th, but the Lehigh in its entirety stays here too. Instead of reaching into MontCo with two rods hugging the MontCo-Berks and MontCo-BucksCo line, it goes for Bucks County instead. At 56% Obama, this is a slight improvement. Charlie Dent should be gone as soon as we get a good challenger anyway.

Southeast PA is definitely (in my mind, anyway), the coup de grace of this map. Here’s an inset of that:

Each district is colored by county component: all greens are the 6th or 8th, blues are the 7th or 13th, red is the 1st, and yellow is the 2nd.

First, the boring stuff (i.e. the 1st and 2nd):
































1 689,174 266,010 78,010 347,098 76.64% 22.47%
Delaware 208,267 65,596 42,719 109,675 59.81% 38.95%
Philadelphia 480,907 200,414 35,291 237,423 84.41% 14.86%

Bob Brady’s district remains anchored in South Philly with an arm into Delaware County. The composition of this arm, however, is significantly different. Brady swaps with Sestak some cities (notably strongly-Democratic Chester city) for some Republican leaning parts of the Main Line. Brady’s old 1st had a 89% Democratic section of DelCo, the new 1st has a 60% Democratic section. This lowers Democratic performance by about 11%, down to 77%. Brady need not be concerned.






















2 688,659 303,286 34,983 339,990 89.20% 10.29%
Philadelphia 688,659 303,286 34,983 339,990 89.20% 10.29%

No significant changes for Chaka Fattah. His district still contains most of West Philly. Cheltenham in MontCo is removed, substituted for an arm into Northeast Philly. The changes aren’t all that significant, the district is only down 0.85% in Obama performance.










































8 686,233 199,224 162,328 365,625 54.49% 44.40%
Bucks 619,093 179,031 150,248 332,924 53.78% 45.13%
Montgomery 27,576 7,460 5,533 13,168 56.65% 42.02%
Philadelphia 39,564 12,733 6,547 19,533 65.19% 33.52%

Consistent with tradition, Bucks County remains in the 8th in its entirety. The old 8th had an odd-looking protrusion into MontCo (where Obama got 63%), and took a section of Northeast Philly where Obama barely edged McCain with 49%. We flip the roles here, instead taking Wards 41 and 65 of the city, where Obama got 65%. We also take a few municipalities (funnily, Hatfield Twp, Hatfield Boro, and Hatboro Boro) in MontCo, where Obama got 57%. Overall, Obama got 54.5%, up 0.5%.
































13 688,902 224,312 140,834 368,302 60.90% 38.24%
Montgomery 443,652 144,765 100,434 247,223 58.56% 40.62%
Philadelphia 245,250 79,547 40,400 121,079 65.70% 33.37%

The 13th remains a MontCo-Philly hybrid. It takes in more of MontCo now, consistent with the increased population constraint, reaching all the way to the Berks County Line. Instead of reaching through the city, the new 13th no longer touches the Delaware River, stopping short by grabbing Northeast Philly taken from the 8th. Centered in Abingdon (it’s the largest municipality), the new 13th’s section of MontCo is 59% Obama, up from 57%, and the new 13th’s section of Philly is 66% Obama, up from 60%. Together, this makes for a 61% Obama district, up from 58%.










































7 689,283 219,653 154,096 377,651 58.16% 40.80%
Chester 211,997 66,693 57,071 125,146 53.29% 45.60%
Delaware 345,246 113,274 72,554 187,835 60.31% 38.63%
Montgomery 132,040 39,686 24,471 64,670 61.37% 37.84%

The new 7th stays composed of ChesCo, DelCo, and MontCo. Since more of DelCo is given to Brady’s 1st, this district becomes more Chester County heavy, reaching further north and west into the county. It, incidentally, takes Jim Gerlach’s home in West Pikeland Township here. Even so, the new ChesCo portion is 53% Obama, up from 50%. The DelCo section gets a healthy boost from the city of Chester while keeping in Radnor, Haverford, and Upper Darby along the Main Line. The New DelCo section is 60% Obama, up from 56%. The MontCo part remains mostly the same, taking in Norristown, Upper Merion, and Lower and Upper Providence Townships. Combined, this is a 58% Obama district, up 2.5%.










































6 688,652 198,024 136,472 338,576 58.49% 40.31%
Berks 251,731 66,000 44,343 112,060 58.90% 39.57%
Chester 265,765 70,897 56,798 129,300 54.83% 43.93%
Montgomery 171,156 61,127 35,331 97,216 62.88% 36.34%

My favorite district. The pterodactyl is back (hence the title, get it?), and it’s leaner and meaner (to Republicans, anyway). The body remains majority Chester, but it swaps out a large swath of eastern ChesCo for townships along the Lancaster County line freed up from the 16th. It still, however, keeps Democratic centers in Downington and Coatesville, and adds West Chester proper, which was gerrymandered into the 16th before. Obama performed roughly the same in the old and new Chester part.

As before, the left wing reaches into Berks County, but before, Reading was cracked three ways between the 6th, 16th, and 17th. Now, Reading and its 81% Obama goodness are kept whole in this district, raising Obama’s performance in Berks from 54% to 59%. The right arm is still my favorite. Originally, Republicans conceived of this as a way to crack MontCo into two Republican (PA-06, PA-07) and one swing district (PA-13). This is best termed, I think, an EPIC FAIL. The old right arm was 64% Obama, and this new version is 63%. I maintained the anchor in Lower Merion Township and Narberth, since their combined 71% Obama goodness is just too good to give up. Combined, this raises Obama’s performance here by another 1% to 58.5%.

So there you have it, a new, 18-seat map for Pennsylvania. Comments? Questions? Which state should I do next? Please share what you think the districts look like, also!