SSP Daily Digest: 7/3

AK-Gov: George Stephanopoulos (on Twitter) thinks there might be some sort of announcement from Sarah Palin this afternoon, possibly that she won’t run for re-election as governor. This wouldn’t surprise me, and if so, not a bad time to bury the news.

MN-Sen: Al Franken is going to be sworn in on Tuesday. Just seeing this photo makes me excited.

MN-06: You know things are bad for Michele Bachmann when… well, every day is bad for her. But things are especially bad when members of her own party start telling her to STFU. “Boycotting the constitutionally mandated Census is illogical, illegal and not in the best interest of our country,” wrote Patrick McHenry, Lynn Westmoreland and John Mica, members of the subcommittee which oversees the census. And these guys are some pretty wingnutty mouthbreathers. Weapons-grade wingnut Jason Chaffetz (the only other GOPer on the same cmte) refused to sign the letter.

NH-Sen: Paul Hodes pulled in an improved 725K for the quarter – but I still think he can do better. Meanwhile, a piece of shit poll from UNH shows Kelly Ayotte “beating” Hodes 39-35. Why such harsh language? Because UNH continues its crappy track record of unacceptable samples – this time, they have it as 32R, 25D, even though there are more registered Democrats than Republicans in the state of New Hampshire. Pathetic. And in other news, former Gov. Stephen Merrill (R), who served in the mid-90s right before Jeanne Shaheen, has declined to run for the open Senate seat.

PA-07: Republican businessman Steven Welch has made it official – he will run for the 7th CD seat, which may or may not be open, depending upon what Rep. Joe Sestak does. I can’t understand why Welch would pick a holiday weekend to launch his campaign, though. (Thanks, Pan.)

TX-Gov/AG: Former Travis County DA Ronnie Earle – best known these days as the guy who indicted Tom DeLay – just filed papers to run for statewide office. He hasn’t yet said whether he’ll seek the governor’s mansion (which would put him on a collision course will fellow Dem Tom Schieffer) or the Attorney General’s job. Either way, Earle can start raising money now.

VA-05: A Virginia TV station is refusing to air an NRCC ad against Tom Perriello. While the station has remained mum about its reasons, Factcheck.org slammed the ad for its inaccuracies about the Waxman-Markey climate change bill. TV & radio stations are open to legal liability when they run third-party ads (they are immune when running candidate ads), so the only reason to nix a spot is because your lawyers tell you to. Nice to see the NRCC fumbling out of the gate. Perriello, meanwhile, is offering a feisty defense of his vote.

Ads: A coalition of liberal groups is airing “thank you” ads in seventeen congressional districts, which include some potentially vulnerable Dems who voted for the climate change bill. The list: B. Markey, Boyd, Grayson, Kosmas, Hill, Halvorson, Chandler, Kratovil, Peters, Schauer, Hodes, Maffei, Kilroy, Space, Perriello, Giffords & Kagen.

SSP Daily Digest: 4/27

MO-Sen: After last week announcing that she was “in no hurry” to begin her campaign for the GOP nomination in the Missouri senate race, former treasurer Sarah Steeleman has done an about-face and is setting up her exploratory committee right away. Apparently she’s striking while the iron is hot (i.e. while everyone is suddenly second-guessing Roy Blunt). She’s enlisting Ben Ginsberg, GOP beltway power-broker and fixer extraordinaire, to help. (H/t ccharles000.)

CO-Sen: Ken Buck, the Weld County District Attorney and an immigration hard-liner, has, as expected, formally announced his candidacy for the Colorado senate seat held by appointee Michael Bennet. He’ll face Aurora city councilor Ryan Frazier, and possibly ex-Rep. Bob Beauprez, in the GOP primary.

NV-Sen: As the GOP searches for a dark-horse opponent to Harry Reid, they could go two routes: go with an underfunded conservative activist who can mobilize the boots on the ground (see Sharron Angle), or go with some self-funding rich guy nobody’s heard of who can saturate the race with money. The latter option has materialized, in the form of Wall Street investment banker John Chachas, who’s been meeting with party leaders. There are two slight problems: one, the nation’s ire toward all things Wall Street, and two, that Chachas is a New York resident who hasn’t lived in Nevada since high school.

MN-Sen: Even polite, stoic Minnesotans have only a finite amount of patience. A new Star-Tribune poll finds that 64% think Norm Coleman should concede right now, and only 28% consider his appeal to the Minnesota Supreme Court “appropriate.” 73% think he should pack it in if he loses in front of the state supreme court.

NY-Sen: Kirsten Gillibrand has her first official primary opponent. It’s not Steve Israel, it’s not Carolyn Maloney… it’s Scott Noren, an oral surgeon and “fiscally conservative” Dem from Ithaca who’s urging supporters to “donate modestly.” Uh huh. Good luck with that.

Pennsylvania: Pennsylvania Democratic chair T.J. Rooney has a simple goal: to “come together as a party” and have no primary fights in 2010. Uh huh. Good luck with that.

TX-Gov, TX-AG: Former Travis County DA Ronnie Earle (otherwise known as the guy who secured the indictment of Tom DeLay) tells the Austin American-Statesman that he is considering a statewide run, for either governor or attorney general. (J)

WA-03: A Republican candidate against Rep. Brian Baird has already announced: financial advisor David Castillo. He’s never held elective office, but was a deputy assistant secretary at the Bush administration VA, and ran state senator Don Benton’s 1998 campaign against Baird. This district’s PVI is ‘even,’ and Baird routinely wins with over 60%. (UPDATE: Uh huh. Good luck with that.)

WA-08: One question that’s been on the lips of the blogosphere lately is: where in the world is Darcy Burner? It’s been tweeted about for a while but now it’s been made official: she’s going to DC to be executive director of the American Progressive Caucus Policy Foundation (the ideas arm of the Congressional Progressive Caucus). With fellow MSFT vet Suzan DelBene in the 2010 race already, this seems to indicate Burner won’t be making a third attempt at WA-08.

TX-10: McCaul Drops AG Hopes, Will Seek Re-Election

Somewhat sucky news:

Less than three months after saying he would consider a run next year for attorney general of Texas, third-term U.S. Rep. Michael McCaul, R-Austin, told the American-Statesman’s Danny Yadron on Wednesday that the AG option is no longer on his plate.

Asked if he was still mulling a run for attorney general, McCaul replied: “No, I’m running for re-election.”

This confirms an earlier statement from a McCaul spokesman. While it would have been nice to have an open seat here, Democrats fortunately have a good candidate in Jack McDonald, who has already raised over $300K and previously said he’d run no matter what McCaul decided. Indeed, the DCCC has already targeted McCaul, firing off a few radio ads over his vote against the stimulus.

And according to SSP’s analysis of the presidential vote, Barack Obama improved nicely over John Kerry’s numbers – McCain won the district 55-44, versus Bush’s 62-38 pounding. In a separate analysis of Texas demographics, Crisitunity observed that the 10th CD had the largest raw increase in Hispanic population from 2000 to 2006 of any district in the Houston or Dallas areas. That trend has doubtless continued, putting the GOP on ever-thinner ice.

McCaul, meanwhile, is far from entrenched – he won his last two elections with just 55% and 54% of the vote, running against underfunded opponents both times. I think this is going to be an interesting race.