IL-Sen: Giannoulias Ahead, Kirk with Clear Lead

Market Shares Corp. for the Chicago Tribune/WGN-TV (1/16-20, likely voters, 12/2-8 in parens):

Alexi Giannoulias (D): 34 (31)

Cheryle Jackson (D): 19 (17)

David Hoffman (D): 16 (9)

Other: 5 (8)

Undecided: 26 (35)

Mark Kirk (R): 47 (41)

Patrick Hughes (R): 8 (3)

Other: 10 (10)

Undecided: 35 (46)

(MoE: ±4%)

Public Policy Polling (PDF) (1/22-25, likely voters, no trendlines):

Alexi Giannoulias (D): 32

Cheryle Jackson (D): 18

David Hoffman (D): 20

Other: 3

Undecided: 27

(MoE: ±4.9%)

Mark Kirk (R): 42

Patrick Hughes (R): 9

Other: 11

Undecided: 39

(MoE: ±4.1%)

Remarkably similar numbers from both pollsters in both primaries. It looks like teabagger extraordinaire Patrick Hughes has failed to take much of a bite out of Kirk’s hide. The real question is whether Kirk’s successful rightward march to head off the likes of Hughes will damage him in the fall – or if he can pull of a charade of Scott Brownian proportions.

On the Dem side, Giannoulias seems to be in the pole position, but the Tribune, at least, seems to think Hoffman is showing some momentum. Time is pretty much out for anyone to make a move, though.

PPP also took a look at the gubernatorial primaries:

Pat Quinn (D-inc): 40

Dan Hynes (D): 41

Undecided: 19

(MoE: ±4.9%)

Kirk Dillard (R): 19

Andy McKenna (R): 17

Bill Brady (R): 16

Jim Ryan (R): 13

Adam Andrzejewski (R): 11

Other: 8

Undecided: 17

(MoE: ±4.1%)

These numbers are also in line with the Tribune’s, though Hynes is doing just a hair better here. As for the Republican slate, several of the places are switched from where the Trib had them, but all of the players are still jostling inside a very tight band. Both races are too close to call – but we’ll know the answers on Tuesday.

And, as always, SSP will be liveblogging all of the Illinois primaries.

UPDATE: Rasmussen also just put out some numbers:

Andy McKenna (R): 20

Jim Ryan (R): 16

Kirk Dillard (R): 13

Bill Brady (R): 11

Adam Andrzejewski (R): 11

Other: 12

Undecided: 17

(MoE: ±4.5%)

IL-Gov: New Poll Show Tight Races in Both Primaries

Market Shares Corp. for the Chicago Tribune/WGN-TV (1/16-20, likely voters, 12/2-8 in parens):

Pat Quinn (D-inc): 44 (49)

Dan Hynes (D): 40 (23)

Other: 2 (7)

Undecided: 13 (21)

(MoE: ±4%)

These are some pretty remarkable trendlines, though the toplines are very close to a recent Hynes internal, which had him down 44-37. As the Tribune notes, Hynes (the state’s Comptroller) has been hammering Quinn on TV, aided by his somewhat surprisingly larger warchest. Hynes’s jump is also a tribute to the power of negative campaigning, as this race has turned quite ugly – he’s come under fire of late for ads which dredge up hoary old Chicago racial politics. This move may backfire on Hynes, but with the primary just over a week away, there’s no doubt that this contest is very much a tossup.

(An aside: For an excellent exegesis on the importance of Harold Washington, Chicago’s first black mayor, and how his ascent and untimely death made an indellible mark on the city’s politics, I highly recommend Barack Obama’s Dreams from My Father. Obama’s years as a community organizer in Chicago came during and after Washington’s tenure.)

The Tribune also polled the GOP primary:

Andy McKenna (R): 19 (12)

Jim Ryan (R): 18 (26)

Kirk Dillard (R): 14 (9)

Bill Brady (R): 9 (10)

Adam Andrzejewski (R): 7 (6)

Other: 14

Undecided: 17

(MoE: ±4%)

Talk about unsettled – and what a drop for Ryan, the former AG (and not to be confused with disgraced former Gov. George Ryan or disgraced 2004 GOP senate nominee Jack Ryan). I tend to think that Ryan would be the GOP’s strongest candidate, but he’s suffered at the hands of McKenna (the former state party chair), who, like Hynes, has been blitzing the airwaves. Interestingly, McKenna has also targeted Quinn, which might also help explain Hynes’s surge. In any event, much like the Dem primary, this is anybody’s race.

The full polling memo is not available online yet, but I’d expect the Tribune to post it here. (It’s nice to see the tradmed making better use of resources like Scribd and putting original documents online to allow greater scrutiny.) I also expect that the Trib will release senate numbers soon as well.

SSP Daily Digest: 12/18

AR-Sen: Shortest Senate campaign ever. Former Arkansas Farm Bureau president Stanley Reed, about one week into his campaign, dropped out today, citing health reasons. Reed, with his resume and connections, was considered a very credible candidate when stacked up against the rest of the ragtag band of misfits running for the GOP. On the Dem side comes the intriguing news that the SEIU is paying down Lt. Gov. Bill Halter‘s campaign debt. Daily Kos’s Jed seems optimistic that the SEIU is facilitating a primary run against Blanche Lincoln (they said he “has a very bright political future,” although not specifically referencing the Senate race), although, considering there were rumors that the SEIU’s anti-Gilbert Baker ad was interpreted as a sign to Lincoln that they had her back (in exchange for her cooperation on an HCR cloture vote), it’s also possible this could be a carrot from the SEIU to Halter to stay out of the primary. This one’s worth keeping an eye on.

AZ-Sen: This might be a clue that there’s some growing substance to the rumors that ex-Rep. J.D. Hayworth is gearing up for a primary run against John McCain. He’s in Washington DC this week, meeting with potential supporters including conservative advocacy group Citizens United.

CT-Sen: I’m not sure how much sway former Democratic state party chair Ed Marcus has over Chris Dodd or anybody else, but he’s gone on the record advocating that Dodd hang it up and make way for Richard Blumenthal. Dodd’s people responded that Marcus has some sort of old grudge against Dodd.

KY-Sen: Um, whoops. Rand Paul’s campaign manager Chris Hightower had to resign his post yesterday after local blog Barefoot and Progressive found racist comments on Hightower’s MySpace page (and also video of performances by Hightower’s death metal band… gotta love those crazy libertarians). (Wait… MySpace? Srsly?) Primary rival Trey Grayson’s campaign wasted no time jumping on this, adding some fuel to their argument that Paul isn’t coming from mainstream Republican turf.

IL-Gov: Rasmussen added some gubernatorial numbers to their Illinois sample, finding fairly comfortable leads for both incumbent Pat Quinn and Dem comptroller Dan Hynes against their Republican opposition. It wouldn’t be a Rasmussen poll without something inexplicable in it, though, and this time it’s the decision not to poll former AG Jim Ryan, who’s probably the Republican field’s frontrunner. Still, Quinn beats state party chair Andy McKenna 41-33, state Sen. Bill Brady 45-30, and state Sen. Kirk Dillard 41-30, while Hynes beats McKenna 43-30, Brady 46-27, and Dillard 42-29. Interesting to see Hynes overperforming Quinn in the general, even as Hynes looks unlikely to make it out of the primary; that may have to do with some Blago-related stench coming off of Quinn (Blago’s ex-LG, although they had absolutely nothing to do with each other), or just the reversal of positions, where the former reformer Quinn is now the insider and the well-connected Hynes is now the outsider. In the Dem primary, long-time SoS Jesse White threw his endorsement to Quinn. The Dem field also shrank to only Quinn and Hynes as the two minor candidates were vanquished; attorney Ed Scanlon was knocked off the ballot, while activist Dock Walls withdrew.

NY-Gov: It had looked like Erie County Exec Chris Collins had gaffed his way out of contention for a possible run for the GOP gubernatorial nomination (after a bizarre tirade against Assembly speaker Sheldon Silver). But with Rudy Giuliani pretty clearly out of the field and ex-Rep. Rick Lazio exciting absolutely nobody, it looks like Collins may still take a whack at it. He just hired a campaign consulting firm run by a former Giuliani aide.

IL-10: One of the four GOPers in the field in the 10th, Bill Cadigan, has dropped out; without state Rep. Beth Coulson’s name rec or the money of Dick Green or Bob Dold, he really didn’t have a foot in the door. Speaking of Bob Dold, Bob Dold is now on the air with a TV spot touting Bob Dold’s conservative economic views. Bob Dold!

MN-06: If there’s someone out there who seems like she’d be one of those crazy bosses, it’s Rep. Michele Bachmann. She’s had a terrible time holding onto chiefs of staff, and now she’s facing a rupture with her entire fundraising group, described as a “defection” (although it’s not clear where they’re defecting to).

NH-02: This isn’t going to endear ex-Rep. Charlie Bass to the teabag set, as he seeks to reclaim his seat. Bass just got a $2,500 check from NRCC chair Pete Sessions’ PAC. The anti-establishment right already has to be inclined to support right-wing radio talker Jennifer Horn over the moderate Bass.

OH-15: Ex-state Sen. (and 2008 loser) Steve Stivers won’t get the GOP primary to himself; he’s facing a challenge from the right from John Adams, who’s labeling himself as the “conservative alternative.” Stivers also faces third-party right-winger David Ryon in the general, similar to what hamstrung him last time and let Rep. Mary Jo Kilroy squeak into office.

OH-17: Ex-Rep. (and ex-con) Jim Traficant is in the news again, sounding revved up to, well, yell and gesticulate a lot, as always. He’s also still talking about another run for Congress, although he’s not sure where. He said he’d circulate nominating petitions in three different districts. His former seat in the 17th is likeliest, although so too is the neighboring 6th.

PA-10: The race in the 10th has been slow to take shape, compared with most other red-leaning districts held by Democrats. But with state Rep. Mike Peifer recently having announced he’s interested in a race against Rep. Chris Carney, now someone else potentially higher up the food chain is checking it out too: former US Attorney Tom Marino, who already (wisely) passed on the race in 2008.

PA-15: Here’s one more district with teabagger troubles for the NRCC and the Republican establishment. Rep. Charlie Dent is facing his toughest challenge yet from Democratic mayor of Bethlehem John Callahan, and now comes word of a challenge in the GOP primary from 9/12 movement member Matthew Benol. There’s also a third-party teabagger awaiting Dent in the general, Jake Towne.

TN-06: State Sen. Jim Tracy seemed to have an early edge on securing the GOP nod in the now-open 6th, vacated recently by Democratic Rep. Bart Gordon. That was bolstered by his recent announcement that he’d already raised $100K in funds just this week, and that he’d gotten the endorsement of fellow state Sen. (and potential primary rival) Bill Ketron. However, he’s got some competition from another fellow state Senator now: Diane Black announced that she’s joining the race too. (Black is from suburban Gallatin, while Tracy is from more rural Shelbyville.)

TN-08: Republican candidate Stephen Fincher had been successfully playing the “I’m just a humble farmer/gospel singer who’s never even been to Washington” role for a while, it seems, but suddenly the teabaggers are turning their wrath on even him, too. They’re taking an issue with his fundraising, as almost all of his money is coming from nearby farm families who’ve maxed-out on donations (which is a good sign, as his big haul so far was just him picking the low-hanging fruit; now the real test comes). What’s alarming to the anti-pork crowd is that how deep in the pocket of Big Ag he seems to be; his supporters have received a cumulative $80,000,000 in farm subsidies, and Fincher himself has gotten $6,000,000 in farm subsidies over the years, including $800,000 in 2007 alone.

WA-03: The Democratic field seems to be solidifying, with Olympia-area state Rep. Brendan Williams, a frequently-mentioned possible candidate, deciding against a run. With state Sen. Craig Pridemore and state Rep. Deb Wallace both in, the two main candidates are both from Vancouver instead. Also worth noting: peace activist Cheryl Crist is in the race for the Dems too. Crist primaried Brian Baird in 2008, doing well at the activist-dominated nominating convention but making little impact in the actual primary.

GA-St. House: It’s official; David Ralston is the new Republican speaker of Georgia’s House, following the suicide attempt and resignation of former speaker Glenn Richardson. If you’re looking for broader implications, it takes Ralston’s name out of contention in the open seat in GA-09, where he’d been rumored to be interested in a run.

Demographics: Josh Goodman does some neat number-tweaking, overlaying Census projections onto the 2008 presidential election to try and predict the 2052 election. Assuming that racial groups keep voting for the same parties at the same proportions, he projects 58-40 Democratic edge. Of course, that’s easier said than done, as, for starters, Hispanics could return to their 2004-level GOP performance; also, as he points out, “Heck, in 40 years the Tea Party and the Green Party might be the major players in contesting the all-important cyborg vote.”

SSP Daily Digest: 12/14

AR-Sen: We’re up to eight Republicans packed into the GOP Senate field in Arkansas, none of whom are exactly top-tier but many of whom seem to have the capability to win both the primary and the general against Blanche Lincoln. The new guy is Stanley Reed, and although he hasn’t held elective office before, he seems to have the insider connections to make a serious go of it: he is former president of the Arkansas Farm Bureau, and before that was chair of the Univ. of Arkansas Board of Trustees.

CA-Sen/Gov: Here’s an interesting rumor, courtesy of Chris Cillizza: moderate ex-Rep. Tom Campbell, probably the GOP’s greatest threat in the general but an underfunded third-wheel in the gubernatorial primary, is considering moving over to the Senate race. Perhaps the news that Insurance Comm. Steve Poizner was planning to spend $15 million of his own moolah on his stalled gubernatorial bid was the last straw? It vaguely makes sense for Campbell (who has already run for Senate twice before, most recently in 2000), as he’d face off against underwhelming Carly Fiorina (who has lots of her own money, but no inclination to use it) and Assemblyman Chuck DeVore, who has nothing but the wrath of the teabaggers powering him.

IL-Sen: The Chicago Tribune has released polls of the primary fields in the Illinois Senate race, revealing no surprises but also still a lot of people left to make up their minds. The Democratic field finds Alexi Giannoulias in the lead at 31, with Cheryle Jackson within kind-of striking distance at 17, David Hoffman at 9, and free-spending attorney Jacob Meister at 1 (with 38% undecided). For the GOP, the most notable number may be that Patrick Hughes, who’s gotten all the buzz as the guy behind whom all the right-wingers are coalescing, is actually getting nowhere at all. Hughes is at 3, tied with virtually unknown Kathleen Thomas (a former school board member from Springfield). Mark Kirk is at 41, but with 47% undecided, he still has a lot of selling to do. Speaking of which, the DSCC has a new website devoted solely to the man and his nonstop campaign-trail flip-flops: Two-Faced Kirk.

IL-Gov: The same Chicago Tribune sample also looked at the gubernatorial primary fields. Incumbent Pat Quinn seems to be having little trouble on his path to the Dem nomination, beating Comptroller Dan Hynes 49-23. (Hynes may be second-guessing himself for getting into this race instead of the Senate field.) On the GOP side, it looks like former AG Jim Ryan (and 2002 loser) is in pole position despite his late entry to the race, thanks to being the only figure with statewide name rec. He’s at 26, with state party chair Andy McKenna at 12, downstate state Sen. Bill Brady at 10, suburban state Sen. Kirk Dillard at 9, businessman Adam Andrzejewski at 6, and DuPage Co. Board President Bob Schillerstrom at 2.

PA-Gov: Rasmussen’s poll from last week of PA-Sen had a governor question too, and it shows all of the Dems getting thumped by Republican AG Tom Corbett. That probably has a lot to do with name recognition (Corbett gets his face in the news every day with Bonusgate, which is good for a bizarrely-high favorable of 59/18, while Auditor Jack Wagner is the only Dem with a statewide profile), but the Dems are starting out in a hole here once campaigning starts in earnest. Wagner fares best against Corbett, losing 43-30, while Corbett beats Allegheny Co. Exec Dan Onorato 44-28, ex-Rep. Joe Hoeffel 48-26, and Scranton mayor Chris Doherty 46-23.

NY-Gov (pdf): Breaking! David Paterson is still in deep trouble. He’s at 23/76 approval, and 19/65 re-elects. He loses the Democratic primary to Andrew Cuomo 67-23 (and opinion is certainly solidifying behind Cuomo: 50% want him to run for Governor, while 31% want him to run again for AG). The good news is that Paterson still beats hapless ex-Rep. Rick Lazio in the general, 42-40, while Cuomo beats Lazio 68-22. Siena doesn’t look at Rudy Giuliani at all, making his disappearance from the governor’s race pretty apparent. Siena also takes a look at the Comptroller’s race (although without any William Thompson or Eliot Spitzer permutations), and find Dem Thomas DiNapoli beating GOPer John Faso, 40-24.

RI-Gov: One state where the gubernatorial race looks less and less likely to go the Republicans’ way is Rhode Island, where their only announced candidate, businessman Rory Smith, quietly backed out of the race on Friday afternoon, citing his “limited political experience and political network.” Maybe state Rep. Joe Trillo could get coaxed back into the race for the GOP — or they could just throw their backing behind former Sen. and former Republican Lincoln Chafee‘s independent bid (although based on his recent comments about the state party, it doesn’t sound like he’d want anything to do with their backing).

SC-Gov (pdf): One more gubernatorial poll, leftover from last week. PPP polled South Carolina, and found numbers very similar to Rasmussen‘s numbers from last week. Basically, Democrats need to hope for a matchup between Jim Rex (the Superintendent of Education, and only statewide Dem officeholder) and hard-partying, car-racing, plane-crashing Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer; Rex wins that matchup, 37-36. Dems lose every other permutation. Bauer manages to beat state Sen. Vincent Sheheen 38-33, and Robert Ford 37-33. AG Henry McMaster beats Rex 40-31, Sheheen 41-27, and Ford 42-27. And Rep. Gresham Barrett beats Rex 40-33, Sheheen 41-26, and Ford 42-28. (By way of comparison, Rasmussen finds Rex beating Bauer 36-35 and losing his other matchups.) PPP didn’t poll the primaries, but based on favorables, McMaster may be the likeliest GOP nominee, at 30/20, compared with Barrett, little-known outside his district at 14/17, and Bauer, toxic at 22/43. PPP also ran a generic D ballot against GOP Sen. Jim DeMint, who has no-name opposition so far, finding DeMint winning 47-38.

TX-Gov: As expected, Kinky Friedman ended his Democratic gubernatorial primary bid today. Friedman declined to endorse either Bill White (whose entry probably precipitated Friedman’s exit) or Farouk Shami, despite some connections to Shami. What may not have been expected was that Friedman dropped down to the Agriculture Commissioner race, where he’ll join fellow gubernatorial race refugee Hank Gilbert. While Friedman doesn’t seem to have an agricultural background, he does have as an advisor and backer former Ag Comm. and populist pundit Jim Hightower.

ID-01: I hadn’t heard any rumblings about this happening, but in case anyone was wondering, Larry Grant (the former software exec who barely lost the 2006 ID-01 race to Bill Sali) said he wouldn’t primary Democratic freshman Rep. Walt Minnick in 2010. Minnick has raised some hackles for being the most conservative member of the Democratic caucus (not that that shouldn’t be a surprise in an R+18 district, but he’s been taking that to extremes lately, leading the way to scrap the new Consumer Financial Protection Agency). Grant also denied that he’d be running in 2010 as a moderate Republican (conceivably to Minnick’s left?), although he seemed to suggest that he could prevail against that field of wannabes, accusing Vaughn Ward of being a “Sarah Palin Republican” and Raul Labrador a “Bill Sali Republican.” (I wonder what that would make Bill Sali, if he decided to jump in?)

IL-10: In the Democratic primary clash in the open 10th, state Rep. Julie Hamos scored a big labor endorsement today, from the AFSCME.

IL-14: Ethan Hastert a moderate? Either the apple falls far from the tree, or the Main Street Partnership is having to greatly expand their definition of “moderate” is order to stay relevant in a GOP intent on purging itself into oblivion. At any rate, the Main Streeters’ PAC gave to Hastert (making clear where the ideological fault lines lie in his primary against state Sen. Randy Hultgren), along with OH-15’s Steve Stivers, OH-16’s Jim Renacci, and NH-02’s Charlie Bass.

KS-03: The specter of Republican civil war in the open seat race in Kansas’s 3rd is abating, as state Sen. (and 2008 loser) Nick Jordan has the respect of both the moderate and conservative wings of the state’s party. Maybe most significantly, state Sen. Jeff Colyer, from the fire-breathing camp, said today that he won’t challenge Jordan in the primary. Moderate state Rep. Kevin Yoder is still exploring the race, though.

PA-10: Sophomore Democratic Rep. Chris Carney has been one of the juiciest targets with only token Republican opposition, but the GOP may have found an elected official willing to take him on: state Rep. Michael Peifer, who represents a rural portion of the district.

SC-01: Another Dem is in the hunt in the 1st, for the right to go up against Rep. Henry Brown (assuming he survives his primary). Retired Navy officer and accountant Dick Withington is getting in; his only political experience is losing a state Rep. race in 2004.

TN-03: The open seat in the 3rd should be attracting at least some Democratic interest, but following the withdrawal of establishment candidate Paula Flowers last month, now even the race’s Some Dude bailed out: businessman (and 2006 loser) Brent Benedict got out, citing family health concerns. A few other potentially-credible Democrats are now looking at the race, though, including Chattanooga city councilor Andrae McGary and Hamilton County Democratic party chair Jeff Brown.

TX-10: Democratic businessman Jack McDonald has gotten lots of buzz for solid fundraising for a potential run against GOP Rep. Michael McCaul, who looks increasingly shaky in the demographically-changing 10th. Last week, he removed the “exploratory” part of his campaign account, making it official, although clearly he’s been acting like a candidate all year.

VA-05: The Virginia GOP decided on a primary, rather than a convention, to pick the person who takes on endangered freshman Rep. Tom Perriello in the 5th. In a weird way, the primary is better news for the party’s establishment, as the conventions tend to be dominated by the extremists who pick pure but unelectable candidates (recall last year’s Senate flap, where the decision to have a convention drove out moderate Rep. Tom Davis and left them with ex-Gov. Jim Gilmore). With their top contender, state Sen. Rob Hurt, coming from the sane wing of the party, that increases his odds of getting through to the general — but the downside is that this may drive dissatisfied teabaggers to the third-party right-wing candidacy of Bradley Rees in the general.

WA-03: A journeyman Democrat is considering the open seat race in the 3rd, potentially setting up a primary with early entrant state Rep. Deb Wallace. Denny Heck was a state Rep. in the 80s, lost a Superintendent of Education race, became Gov. Booth Gardner’s chief of staff, and then founded TVW, the state’s local equivalent of C-SPAN. The article also mentions a couple other Dems interested in the race not previously mentioned, including state Sen. Brian Hatfield.

Mayors: In a runoff election that had an undercurrent of homophobia thanks to the involvement of outside groups, city controller Annise Parker won on Saturday, making Houston by far the largest city to ever elect an openly LGBT mayor. She defeated former city attorney Gene Locke 53-47.

Redistricting: The Texas Tribune takes a look at the many moving parts in legislative redistricting post-2010 in Texas. Factors include whether the Dems will be able to pick up the state House next year (sounding less likely), and which state officials are on the Legislative Redistricting Board (which takes over if the legislature can’t agree, which seems likely anyway since there’s a 2/3s requirement for the maps to clear the Senate and the GOP is short of 2/3s there).

Demographics: Governing Magazine has an interesting piece on Gwinnett County, Georgia, which is as good an example as any of how suburbs, even in some of the reddest states, are becoming bluer as they become more diverse thanks to immigration. Gwinnett County has fallen below 50% non-Hispanic white, and it gave Obama 44% of the vote last year.

Polltopia: PPP is asking for help yet again on which congressional district to poll next. This time, it’ll be a GOP-held district: Michele Bachmann’s MN-06, Lee Terry’s NE-02, or Pat Tiberi’s OH-12.

SSP Daily Digest: 10/6

FL-Sen: Conservative upstart Marco Rubio greatly improved his fundraising over the 3rd quarter, raising nearly $1 million. (Primary rival Charlie Crist says he’s on track to raise $2 million for the quarter). This should bring a note of credibility to a campaign that, earlier in the year, had grass roots enthusiasm but was nearly broke.

IA-Sen: You may recall the hype over the last few weeks that Chuck Grassley would get the “race of his life” in 2010, although no one was sure who the opponent would be. It may just turn out to be prominent attorney and 1982 gubernatorial candidate Roxanne Conlin after all, if reports that the state Dems are trying to recruit her into the race are true.

KS-Sen: The newest SurveyUSA poll of the GOP primary (where the only action is) in the Kansas Senate race shows sorta-conservative Rep. Jerry Moran building an appreciable edge over very-conservative Rep. Todd Tiahrt. Moran now has a 43-27 lead, up from a 38-32 lead two months ago. Moran (who represents rural western Kansas) seems to be gaining ground over Tiahrt (who represents Wichita) in northeast Kansas (the Kansas City burbs), where most of the undecideds are.

NH-Sen (pdf): Ever notice that the New Hampshire pollsters all have names that read like the title cards in the old school Batman fight scenes? UNH! ARG! Anyway, today it’s UNH’s turn, and they find Republican former AG Kelly Ayotte with a 40-33 edge over Democratic Rep. Paul Hodes. Hodes defeats the lesser and probably more conservative (although with Ayotte, who the hell knows) Republicans in the race, Ovide Lamontagne and Sean Mahoney, both by a score of 37-28. Ayotte is still not that well-known, with a favorable of 37/8, and — this may be the key takeaway from this poll — 86% of the respondents say they are “still trying to decide” which candidate in the race to support.

IL-Gov: Here’s a guy who should probably consider a name-change operation before running for office. No, he isn’t the governor Ryan who went to prison, and he isn’t the rich guy Ryan who had the weird sex life… he’s the former AG (and guy who lost to Rod Blagojevich in 2002) Jim Ryan, and he’s apparently back to running for Governor again despite 7 years out of politics. He formed an exploratory committee last week, and now he has an internal poll showing him with a commanding lead in the Republican primary: he’s at 33%, leading state Sen. Bill Brady at 11, state GOP chair Andy McKenna at 7, and state Sen. Kirk Dillard at 5. Ryan’s poll also finds Ryan faring the best in the general, losing 39-34 to current Gov. Pat Quinn and beating Dem Comptroller Dan Hynes 37-36, while Brady loses to Quinn 43-27, Dillard loses to Quinn 44-25, and McKenna loses to Quinn 44-26.

PA-Gov: No surprise here, but Allegheny Co. Exec Dan Onorato officially launched his gubernatorial campaign today. Onorato seems to realize he has his work cut out for him in the state’s east where ex-Rep. Joe Hoeffel is likely to run strongest in the primary; so, Onorato launched his campaign in Philadelphia and sought to downplay his pro-life views by saying that he wouldn’t seek to change state abortion laws.

VA-Gov: It looks like the post-thesis-gate bump Creigh Deeds got may be dissipating as Bob McDonnell hits back with a couple strong ads: SurveyUSA polls the Virginia governor’s race again and finds McDonnnell with a 54-43 lead. SUSA has been McDonnell’s friendliest pollster lately, posting the same 54-43 numbers for him last week.

AL-02: Well, this is good news… I guess. Rep. Bobby Bright has reiterated one more time that he plans to remain a Democrat when he runs for re-election next year, despite his Republican-friendly voting record and difficult re-election in his R+16 district.

FL-08: Although Rep. Alan Grayson has been gleefully painting a giant target on his own back, the Republicans are still flailing around trying to find a challenger. One of their top contenders, Orange County Mayor Rich Crotty, has just announced that he won’t seek the Republican nomination next year. (Which may be just as well for the GOP, as Crotty is unpopular and has some ethical clouds hanging overhead.) GOP focus turns now toward former state Sen. Daniel Webster, who’s well known but may be too socially conservative for this bluening, R+2 district (he was Terri Schiavo’s biggest fan in the state legislature). If Webster doesn’t get in, state Rep. Stephen Precourt may be plan C.

GA-08: Rep. Jim Marshall picked up a challenger, although one who’s nearly down in the “some dude” tier: 30-year-old businessman Paul Rish, who served briefly as Bibb County Republican chair. Higher up the totem pole, state Rep. Allan Peake has declined a run; former Rep. Mac Collins hasn’t ruled the race out but doesn’t sound enthused.

NV-03, NV-Gov: It’s official: Republican former state Sen. Joe Heck will be running against Rep. Dina Titus in the 3rd, picking up the torch dropped by John Guedry. With this, Heck drops his gubernatorial primary challenge to Jim Gibbons, giving former AG Brian Sandoval a pretty clear shot at unseating Gibbons in the primary.

OH-18: Fred Dailey, who got 40% of the vote in 2008 running against Rep. Zack Space, says he’s back for a rematch. However, he’ll have to get past state Sen. Bob Gibbs in the Republican primary, who seems to have the establishment backing this time.

OR-04: If AAPOR is looking for someone else to discipline, they might want to look at Sid Leiken’s mom. Leiken, the Republican mayor of Springfield running in the 4th, is under investigation for paying his mom several thousand dollars for polling. Now it turns out that, in response to questions about whether that poll was ever actually taken, his mom is unable to produce any spreadsheets or even written records of the poll data, or any phone records of the sample (she says she used a disposable cellphone!).

SC-05: Another sign of NRCC recruiting successes in the dark-red parts of the south: they’ve gotten a state Senator to go up against long-time Democratic Rep. John Spratt in the R+7 5th. Mick Mulvaney will reportedly make his announcement soon. Spratt’s last strong challenge was in 2006, where he faced state Sen. Ralph Norman (who spent $1 million of his own money but still only got 43% of the vote).

SD-AL: Oops, this slipped through the cracks this weekend: one day after state Rep. Blake Curd said he’d run for the GOP nomination for South Dakota’s House seat, so too did a heavier-hitter: termed-out Secretary of State Chris Nelson. Nelson’s entry had long been anticipated, but now it’s official.

VA-05: Things may finally be sorting themselves out on the GOP side in the R+5 5th, where Rep. Tom Perriello will face a big challenge regardless of whom he faces. State Sen. Frank Ruff said that he won’t run for the nomination, and GOP sources are also saying that state Sen. Rob Hurt (who has been considered the likeliest nominee all along) will enter the race shortly.

NY-St. Ass.: There’s a party switch to report in the New York state legislature; unfortunately, it happened in the state Assembly — where the Republicans’ ship sank long ago — instead of the closely-divided Senate. 14-year Assemblyman Fred Thiele, from AD 2 on Long Island, left the Republicans, saying they “stand for nothing,” and joined the Independence Party; he will caucus with the Democrats. This brings the total in the Assembly to 107 Dems, 40 GOPers, and 3 Dem-caucusing minor party members.

Mayors: There’s one noteworthy mayoral primary on tap for today, in Albuquerque. It’s a nonpartisan race, but there is one Republican (state Rep. Richard Berry) and two Dems (current mayor Martin Chavez — remember how the netroots sighed with relief when he decided not to run for Senate last year — and former state Sen. Richard Romero). The most recent poll has Berry leading at 31, with Chavez at 26 and Romero at 24, but it’s likely that whichever Dem survives the primary will have the edge over Berry in the general (unless Berry can somehow top 40%, in which case there wouldn’t be a general). With numbers like that, though, it’s possible that Chavez could get knocked out in the primary.

Polltopia: Here’s another opportunity to give some feedback to our friends at PPP. They give their polling schedule for the run-up to November (it’s heavy on VA, NJ, and mayoral races in NC), and solicit some suggestions heading into 2010.

SSP Daily Digest: 6/22

DE-Sen: Wilmington News-Journal writer Ron Williams seems convinced that Rep. Mike Castle will be running for the open Senate seat in 2010 and will announce next month, based on his chats with unnamed “high-ranking Republican operatives who know Castle’s moods and inclinations.” He also points to Democratic “rumblings” that AG Beau Biden may pass on the race, to avoid a career-damaging defeat. The Hill tried to get confirmation on this and didn’t get any new information out of Castle, so take with as much salt as needed.

FL-Sen: This is about the last thing anyone could have predicted: billionaire gadfly Tom Golisano, who ran three races for NY-Gov as an independent and was last seen pulling levers behind the curtain in the New York Senate semi-successsful-coup-type-thing has a new idea: running for Senate in Florida. Either on the Independence Party line (which does in fact exist in Florida, although barely)… or as a Democrat. Despite the fact that he just became a Florida resident a few months ago because he hated New York’s high taxes. Sounds like the kind of thing that’ll last until he’s distracted by another shiny object.

MN-Sen: While we’re trafficking in thinly-sourced rumors, here’s one more: there are plans afoot for the “pre-concession BBQ” for Norm Coleman staffers.

NH-Sen: AG Kelly Ayotte is reportedly “close” to deciding to run for Senate. (If you haven’t already read Laura Clawson‘s takedown last week of the circular rationale for the Ayotte boomlet, do it.)

NV-Sen, NV-Gov: GOP Reno mayor Bob Cashell decided he didn’t really mean to endorse Harry Reid last week; he had co-hosted a fundraising reception for Reid but had done so as a “non-partisan mayor.” He probably noticed that having endorsed Reid wouldn’t help his chances in the Nevada governor’s GOP primary next year. (Although this article says that he’s also considering running for Governor as an Independent.) Meanwhile, Nevada’s other Senator, John Ensign saw his approval numbers take a huge hit with the allegations about his affair with a staffer: the Las Vegas Review-Journal finds him at 39/37, down from 53/18 last month. Still, he’s the most popular guy in Nevada, compared with Harry Reid‘s 34% approval and Gov. Jim Gibbons’ 10% approval in the same poll.

CA-Gov: Antonio Villaraigosa will announce later today on CNN whether or not he’s going to run for California governor, which seemed likely even a few months ago but has gotten called into doubt recently. He can’t be encouraged by a recent LA Times poll, which polled only Los Angeles city voters on the Dem primary. Although Villaraigosa maintained a 55% approval as mayor, he only beat ex-Gov. Jerry Brown and SF Mayor Gavin Newsom by 38-32-13 on his home turf, with a plurality opposing his entry into the race.

IL-Gov: Little-known state Senator Matt Murphy is getting in the Illinois governor’s race. He joins two other state Senators in the field: Bill Brady and Kirk Dillard. Murphy has only been in the Senate since 2006, but may have a geographical advantage against presumptive frontrunner Brady, in that Murphy is from Palatine in the Chicago burbs while Brady is from downstate.

ME-Gov: Somehow this eluded me (and everyone else) last week, but it’s indicative of how little press the open Governor’s seat in Maine is getting. Steve Rowe, the Democratic former House speaker and Attorney General, has filed his campaign paperwork. The likely Dem frontrunner will have his formal kickoff “at a later date.”

NJ-Gov: Chris Christie has some splainin’ to do to Congress: he agreed to testify before the House Judiciary subcommittee on Commercial and Administrative Law, regarding who Christie chose to award no-bid federal monitoring contracts to when he was US Attorney. Christie also looks to be waddling toward the center for the general, as last week his team scrubbed the “Shared Values” portion of his website that was up during the primary, in which he talked about opposition to abortion and gay marraige. Meanwhile, the discovery of an extra $625 million or so under the couch cushions in the state’s tax amnesty program may help Jon Corzine’s chances a lot; with that extra money, Dems may be able to restore the popular property tax rebates that were on the chopping block.

NY-Gov: Rudy Giuliani gave a timeline of sorts for deciding whether or not to run for Governor, saying “it’s something I have to decide sometime this year, but I haven’t really focused on it very much right now.” Also, like clockwork, another Siena poll (pdf) showing David Paterson’s dire straits just came out (although numbers have been stable for several months now): he loses the primary to Andrew Cuomo 69-16 and the general to Giuliani 57-27. Cuomo beats Giuliani 49-40, and has his highest-ever approval ratings at 71%.

FL-08: Rep. Alan Grayson likes to keep ’em guessing. One of the most outspoken liberals in the House, the freshman rep. plans to appear at the next Orlando-area teabaggers’ event on July 4. Apparently he’s there to tout support for a bill to audit the Federal Reserve, a topic where he and the Paulist wing of the GOPers have common cause.

FL-13: More insight into the campaign finance shell game that GOP Rep. Vern Buchanan allegedly had going on, that’s been the subject of investigations: a bankrupt registered Democrat explained his $8,800 contribution to Buchanan in that he was reimbursed for the contributions by his partners in a trucking company, one of whom is one of Buchanan’s biggest backers.

OH-02: David Krikorian, who’s going up against Rep. Jean Schmidt in this dark-red district, has put out an internal poll showing him within striking distance, down 44-39. Those numbers may have a lot to do with the DCCC‘s surprising recent decision to list OH-02 as one of their eight best shots at a pickup.

Redistricting: The presentations from the NCSL’s first Redistricting Seminar are available online. They include topics like the Census and “How to Draw Maps That Will Stand up in Court.” (D)

SSP Daily Digest: 5/6

PA-Sen: In a big diss to Arlen Specter, the Democratic caucus last night voted to slot Specter into the most junior spots on his committees for the remainder of this Congress. The issue won’t be revisited until after the midterm. This strips Specter of one of his strongest re-election arguments: seniority, and the power to make things happen that comes with it (especially on his Appropriations subcommittee… although that’s not as huge a problem in a big state like Pennyslvania as it would be in an Appropriations-dependent state like Alaska).

KY-Sen: There’s another potential GOP primary challenger to Jim Bunning sniffing out the race, in case SoS Trey Grayson doesn’t show up despite having opened an exploratory committee. Cathy Bailey hasn’t held elective office before, but she’s strong on the fundraising front. She was a Bush Pioneer in 2000, and was rewarded for that with a post as Ambassador to Latvia. She’s married to the former CEO of Providian as well, so she can self-fund if need be.

NC-Sen: Kenneth Lewis, a Durham attorney and fundraiser for Barack Obama, is telling state Democratic Party leaders that he will run against Richard Burr next year. Still no word on state AG Roy Cooper’s intentions. (J)

IL-Gov: DuPage County Board chair Robert Schillerstrom is setting up an exploratory committee to run for the GOP nomination in the 2010 gubernatorial race. He’ll join state Senator Bill Brady, who’s already in the hunt. Brady has the “my turn” advantage, having finished 3rd in the 2006 primary, but the suburban Schillerstrom would have the population advantage over downstate’s Brady.

NJ-Gov: The Democratic Governors’ Association has been reading the Gray Davis playbook (or maybe my advice?): they’re going hard after Chris Christie this month with an ad barrage in order to damage Christie in the hopes of getting the much less-known and more-conservative Steve Lonegan the GOP nomination instead. The Corzine camp is not involved in the efforts, which aims at Christie’s strength: questioning his supposed corruption-fighting credentials as U.S. Attorney.

VA-02: Ex-Rep. Thelma Drake announced she won’t seek a rematch against Rep. Glenn Nye, who upset her in 2008. This may actually be bad news! for Nye, as there are potential GOP candidates more impressive than the polarizing Drake waiting in the wings. Nye has to be bolstered, though, by the blue shift in this now R+5 district, narrowly won by Obama.

MN-06: Maureen Reed, a former Univ. of Minnesota regent who ran for Lt. Gov on the Independence Party ticket, will be running in MN-06 in the DFL primary in 2010. While she might not make it through the primary, especially if Elwyn Tinklenberg runs again and/or state Senator Tarryl Clark runs, I’m taking this as a positive sign, in that the IP might not be looking to shoot us in the foot this time. (See also Populista‘s diary.)

NRCC: The NRCC has launched another offensive on what they perceive as vulnerable (or at least soften-up-able) Dems, with radio ads against Marion Berry, Charlie Melancon, Earl Pomeroy, Zack Space, and John Tanner. Space is the only one who’s on Frontline, but Berry, Melancon, and Tanner are all in districts that moved sharply toward McCain in 2008. The ad attacks the Blue Dogs for being “lap dogs” on the Obama budget.

Gay marriage: The gay marriage train just keeps building up speed, picking up one more state today. After some public hemming and hawing, Maine Governor John Baldacci signed gay marriage legislation this morning after it passed both chambers of the legislature. (Discussion underway in David Kowalski‘s diary.)

King County Executive: The first poll is out in the race to lead King County (which puts you in charge of 1.8 million constituents, and is a frequent stepping stone to Washington governor). In a bit of a twist, the Republican (it’s an ostensibly nonpartisan race, but everyone knows who’s what) is in the lead in this dark-blue county: former TV news anchor Susan Hutchison is at 20%, followed by two county councilors from Seattle proper (Dow Constantine at 6 and Larry Phillips at 5) and two Eastside state legislators (Fred Jarrett at 7 and Ross Hunter at 3). All the Dems (each of whom is largely unknown outside his district) added up together beat the widely-known Hutchison, though, so whichever Dem survives the primary seems likely to pull this out in the general election, in Nov. 2009.

Mayors: Republican Dan Sullivan beat Democrat Eric Croft to replace Mark Begich as Anchorage mayor yesterday, 57-43. (Sullivan has the advantage of being the son of former mayor George Sullivan.) Discussion underway in benjso99‘s diary. Also, yesterday in Detroit, Dave Bing defeated newly-minted mayor Ken Cockrel by 4 points. (Which makes him the second legendary NBA point guard to ascend to mayor, following Sacramento’s Kevin Johnson.)