Tag: PA-03

Noted idiot and asshole Mark Penn is out with a dozen polls testing embattled frosh Dems from around the country. Let’s crack this sucker open.

Penn Schoen Berland for The Hill and “America’s Natural Gas Alliance” (dates unknown, likely voters, MoE: ±4.9%):

AZ-01:

Ann Kirkpatrick (D-inc): 39

Paul Goasar (R): 46

CO-04:

Betsy Markey (D-inc): 41

Cory Gardner (R): 44

IL-11:

Debbie Halvorson (D-inc): 31

Adam Kinzinger (R): 49

MD-01:

Frank Kratovil (D-inc): 40

Andy Harris (R): 43

MI-07:

Mark Schauer (D-inc): 41

Tim Walberg (R): 41

NV-03:

Dina Titus (D-inc): 44

Joe Heck (R): 47

NM-02:

Harry Teague (D-inc): 42

Steve Pearce (R): 46

OH-15:

Mary Jo Kilroy (D-inc): 38

Steve Stivers (R): 47

OH-16:

John Boccieri (D-inc): 39

Jim Renacci (R): 42

PA-03:

Kathy Dahlkemper (D-inc): 36

Mike Kelly (R): 49

VA-02:

Glenn Nye (D-inc): 36

Scott Rigell (R): 42

VA-05:

Tom Perriello (D-inc): 44

Rob Hurt (R): 45

Nothing lasts forever – even cold November rain.

FL-08: A poll for Sunshine State News, apparently by a firm called Voter Survey Service, finds GOPer Daniel Webster leading Rep. Alan Grayson 43-36. Tea Party candidate Peg Dunmire is at 6, and independent George Metcalfe takes 3.

IL-10: Bob Dold! must have superpowers. That’s because Bob Dold! can seemingly exist in two places at once. He claimed the city of Chicago as his “primary residence” from 2004 to 2006, and received a tax credit for doing so… but somehow also claimed the town of Winnetka as his “permanent residence,” enabling him to register and vote there during the same time period (which he did). So if I’m wrong and Bob Dold! is actually a mere mortal, it seems like it’s either tax fraud or voter fraud. Bob Dold!

IL-11: I think this is going to be the last cycle we keep track of this whip count, because now it’s becoming routine. The NRA endorsed Debbie Halvorson.

NY-20: Yep, definitely the last cycle. The NRA endorsed Scott Murphy, too.

PA-08: Yesterday we mentioned there was a Dem pol of this race, but that we lacked the toplines. Well, now we have the memo. A Harstad Research poll for the SEIU and VoteVets has Dem Rep. Patrick Murphy leading Mike Fitzpatrick 49-46 among likely voters. Interestingly, the poll shows slightly larger Murphy leads when an even tighter voter screen is applied.

VA-05: Ugh, this again? SurveyUSA’s latest in VA-05 is pretty much the same as last time (and the time before that). They have Rob Hurt leading by an eye-popping 58-35 margin, a gap not seen in any other polling. Teabagger Jeffrey Clark takes 4%.

NRCC: The NRCC claims to be out with a bunch of internal polls, but they only provide the alleged toplines for races in seven districts. Forget about field dates or margins of error – they don’t even bother to tell us who the pollsters are! If you want to know the numbers, you’ll have to click the link.

SSP TV:

• KY-Sen: Is mockery better than scolding? Compare this Jack Conway ad, which wryly features seniors saying they “don’t know what planet Rand Paul is from” when it comes to his Medicare views, with the Halvorson spot below
• WV-Sen: John Raese attacks Joe Manchin for being soft on coal and buddies with Barack Obama
• IL-11: A bunch of seniors scold Adam Kinzinger (on Debbie Halvorson’s behalf) for his anti-Social Security views
• NV-03: Grr… Dina Titus seems to have pulled her latest ad off of YouTube!

Independent Expenditures:

CO-07: American Future Fund drops $560K against Ed Perlmutter

A massive stack of DCCC outlays:

AL-02
AR-01
AZ-05
GA-02
HI-01
IA-03
IL-10
IL-14
MD-01
MI-01
MI-07
MO-04
MS-01
NC-08
NY-24
OH-13
OH-16
PA-03
PA-11
SC-05
VA-02
VA-11
WI-07
WV-01

• IA-Sen: Selzer & Co. for Des Moines Register (9/19-22, likely voters, 11/8-11/09 in parentheses):

Roxanne Conlin (D): 30 (30)

Charles Grassley (R-inc): 61 (57)

Undecided: 6 (10)

(MoE: ±4.2%)

Not much to see here other than the remarkable consistency over the almost one year’s period since the previous Selzer poll of this race. (I just learned a new word today, while searching for how to describe this race, linked to the Chet Culver vortex: “syntropy.” It’s synergy + entropy.)

• NH-Sen, NH-Gov: American Research Group (9/22-26, likely voters, Dec. 2009 in parentheses):

Paul Hodes (D): 32 (36)

Kelly Ayotte (R): 46 (43)

Undecided: 20 (21)

John Lynch (D-inc): 42

John Stephen (R): 40

Undecided: 14

(MoE: ±3.5%)

ARG, mateys! Here be a mighty treasure trove of undecided scallywags! (And here be the gubernatorial link.)

• OH-Sen, OH-Gov: Univ. of Cincinnati for various Ohio newspapers (9/16-20, likely voters, 5/11-20 in parentheses):

Lee Fisher (D): 40 (47)

Rob Portman (R): 55 (46)

Undecided: 5 (6)

Ted Strickland (D-inc): 45 (49)

John Kasich (R): 49 (44)

Undecided: 6 (6)

(MoE: ±3.4%)

University of Cincinnati hasn’t been in the field for a while, so they missed the very steady decline of the Dems in Ohio, making it look like more of a sudden collapse. At any rate, this is actually Ted Strickland’s best non-internal showing since early August.

• WA-Sen: Commonsense Ten is out with a $412K independent expenditure in the Washington Senate race, on Patty Murray’s behalf. (Wondering who they are? This Hotline article from July explains how they’re something of a Dem answer to groups like American Crossroads, as well as giving some legal background on just how it came to be that the super-wealthy can give endless money to 527s to spend endlessly on IEs.) Meanwhile, there are dueling ads in Washington. As one might expect, Patty Murray lets Dino Rossi hang himself with his own anti-Boeing words, while Rossi hits Murray on her support of tarps. (Since most Washingtonians own several tarps — they only thing that allows them to go camping during the ten rainy months of the year — I don’t see what the big deal is.)

• WV-Sen: The Dems are definitely getting active in here: the AFL-CIO is out with a huge direct mail blitz in West Virginia, and the DSCC is placing a major ad buy there starting tomorrow. In the meantime, John Raese, Tweeter and Facepage aficionado, is sticking to the GOP party line on global warming: it’s all volcanoes’ fault! (Wait… I thought it was sunspots. They’d better get their stories straight.)

• AK-Gov: Bill Walker, after weeks of dithering in the wake of losing the GOP gubernatorial primary, has formally decided against a write-in bid (despite having an easier-to-spell name than Murkowski). No word on an endorsement of either Sean Parnell or Ethan Berkowitz, although Berkowitz has been steadily reaching out to Walker.

• GA-Gov: With Nathan Deal not really having done much to deflect the attention being paid to his family’s imminent financial collapse, now he’s having to run damage control on another issue: his campaign is accused of having spent $135K to lease aircraft from a company where Deal himself is a part-owner. State ethics law bars candidates from using campaign funds for personal benefit, although the open legal question here is whether this turns into “personal benefit.”

• NM-Gov: Third Eye Strategies for Diane Denish (9/21-23, likely voters, no trendlines):

Diane Denish (D): 46

Susana Martinez (R): 46

Undecided: 7

(MoE: ±4.4%)

This is kind of odd… we just got a Diane Denish internal poll from a totally different pollster (GQR) in the middle of last week. Does she have two different pollsters working for her? At any rate, the news is decidedly better in this one, showing a tie where last week’s poll had her down by 5.

• TX-Gov: Blum & Weprin for Texas newspapers (9/15-22, likely voters, 2/2-10 in parentheses):

Bill White (D): 39 (37)

Rick Perry (R-inc): 46 (43)

Kathie Glass (L): 4 (-)

Deb Shafto (G): 1 (-)

Undecided: 8 (13)

(MoE: ±3.9%)

The Texas race is extremely stable (check out the flatness in Pollster‘s regression lines, with a mid-single-digits spread). While I’d like to think that Bill White can get over 50% on his own, his best hope at this point might be for Libertarian candidate Kathie Glass to start taking a bigger share (presumably out of Rick Perry’s hide, via the same crowd who went for Debra Medina in the primary).

• FL-24: Hamilton Campaigns for Suzanne Kosmas (9/22-23, likely voters, 8/25-29 in parentheses):

Suzanne Kosmas (D-inc): 45 (43)

Sandy Adams (R): 43 (49)

Undecided: 12 (9)

(MoE: ±3.7%)

This is the first internal we’ve seen from Team Kosmas, and while it’s not the kind of numbers that fill you with great confidence (up 2 in one’s own internal), it is an indicator that we’re still looking at a Tossup here instead of Lean R (which is where some of the other prognosticators have been sticking this one). The movement in Kosmas’s direction suggests that voters have found out more about the crazier side of Adams in the wake of her surprise primary victory.

• MS-04: Tarrance Group for Steven Palazzo (9/21-22, likely voters, December 2009 Tarrance Grop poll for NRCC in parentheses):

Gene Taylor (D-inc): 45 (68)

Steven Palazzo (R): 41 (24)

(MoE: ± ?%)

There were reports last week that the NRCC was starting to smell smoke in this race (despite having an underfunded, low-name-rec candidate in Palazzo), and was going to try out a round of polling. Seems like their hunch may be right, as long-time Rep. Gene Taylor (who hasn’t given Dems much reason to take interest in him lately… well, ever, really) is up only by single-digits in a new poll from the Palazzo camp.

• PA-10: Momentum Analysis for Chris Carney (9/23-25, likely voters, no trendlines):

Chris Carney (D-inc): 46

Tom Marino (R): 38

Undecided: 17

(MoE: ±4.9%)

Chris Carney, having been slightly on the wrong end of a public poll from the Times-Leader (and on the very wrong end of that sketchy AFF poll last month), rolls out an internal giving him an 8-point lead over Tom Marino. Marino (who’s pretty underfunded, although the NRCC is starting to get involved) is little-known (only 26/24 faves), so this is going to be one of many races where the Dem’s survival is based on localizing in order to fend off Generic R.

• PA-16: I’m not sure what to make of this: the uphill campaign of Lois Herr (going against Joe Pitts in the 16th, which is solidly Republican but moved a lot in the Dems’ direction in 2008) is out with a second internal poll from PPP that has her within single digits of the GOP incumbent. Pitts leads 41-34, which seems kind of bizarre considering that we’re seeing polls in Pennsylvania with incumbent Dems losing by larger margins than that in much friendlier districts.

• SD-AL: Bennett Petts and Normington for Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (9/22-23, likely voters, no trendlines):

Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D-inc): 51

Kristi Noem (R): 38

Undecided: 10

(MoE: ±4.9%)

Here’s one race that seems to be becoming a little more comfortable for the Democrats. (Recall that Herseth Sandlin led in the last Rasmussen poll of this race, after months of trailing.) I wonder how much of that has to do with the reveal of Noem’s atrocious driving record, given voters’ memories of leadfooted ex-Rep. Bill Janklow?

• DLCC: If you’re looking to really micro-target your financial contributions to where your dollars get stretched the furthest and the leverage is the greatest (given the knife-edges on which many state legislatures, and the entire 2012 redistricting process, rest) the DLCC has rolled out its “Essential Races” program. This points to some of the tightest races in the tightest chambers; the link details their first wave of 20.

• CA-Init: There are some Field Poll leftovers to look at, concerning three of the biggest initiatives on the ballot this year. The news is good all around, although the margins aren’t decisive: Proposition 19 (marijuana legalization) is passing 49-42 (it was failing 44-48 in the July Field Poll). Proposition 23 (undoing greenhouse gases limiting legislation) is failing 34-45. And maybe most importantly, Proposition 25 (allowing budget passage with a simple majority) is passing 46-30.

• Florida: Mason-Dixon’s latest Florida poll (we gave you Sen and Gov numbers over the weekend) has a lot of miscellany in the fine print that’s worth checking out. They find the GOP leading narrowly in three major downballot races: Pam Bondi leads Dan Gelber in the AG race 38-34, Jeff Atwater leads Loranne Ausley in the CFO race 29-27, and Adam Putnam leads Scott Maddox in the Ag Comm race 36-32. They also find that Amendment 4 has a shot at passing; it’s up 53-26, although bear in mind that you need to clear 60% for a Florida initiative. Amendment 4 would require localities to put changes to comprehensive zoning plans up to a public vote; Josh Goodman has a good discussion of it today along with several other initiatives in other states that may pass despite having both sides of the entire political establishment lined up against them.

• SSP TV:

• FL-Sen: Marco Rubio rolls out his first ad en espanol, a biographical spot

• PA-Sen: How many freakin’ ads has Pat Toomey come out with? Anyway, here’s another one

• CT-02: Joe Courtney stresses his independence, especially regarding TARP

• CT-05: Chris Murphy’s new ad focuses on stopping outsourcing

• PA-03, PA-11: The DCCC is out with new ads in the 3rd and 11th, continuing the trends of hitting Mike Kelly as out-of-touch millionaire and hitting Lou Barletta for sucking as Hazleton mayor

• Rasmussen:

• AL-Sen: William Barnes (D) 30%, Richard Shelby (R-inc) 58%

• CT-Sen: Richard Blumenthal (D) 50%, Linda McMahon (R) 45%

• DE-Sen: Chris Coons (D) 49%, Christine O’Donnell (R) 40%, Mike Castle (I) 5%

• GA-Sen: Michael Thurmond (D) 36%, Johnny Isakson (R-inc) 52%

• IA-Gov: Chet Culver (D-inc) 37%, Terry Branstad (R) 55%

• ND-Sen: Tracy Potter (D) 25%, John Hoeven (R) 68%

• SC-Sen: Alvin Greene (D) 21%, Jim DeMint (R-inc) 64%

• DE-Sen: One more Real World alum in the political news: that’s first-season vet Eric Neis debating Christine O’Donnell in this new 90s video that’s surfaced. Ooops, I’m burying the lede: the point of the video is that O’Donnell answers in the affirmative when asked if she wants to stop the whole country from having sex.

• KY-Sen: Benenson Strategy Group for DSCC (9/14-19, likely voters, early Sept. in parentheses):

Jack Conway (D): 42 (45)

Rand Paul (R): 45 (47)

Undecided: 13 (8)

(MoE: ±3.7%)

The newest Benenson poll from the DSCC shows things pretty stable in the Kentucky race, with Jack Conway hanging back within striking distance of Rand Paul. They also find Conway leading 48-45 among those who actually know both candidates (and find Paul with greater name recognition: 84%, to 72% for Conway).

• MO-Sen: The DSCC is also out with an internal poll in Missouri, one of the other races where they’d like you to know they’re still playing offense, courtesy of Garin Hart Yang (no mention of the dates, MoE, or any of that useful stuff, though… just a leak to the Fix). The poll has Robin Carnahan trailing Roy Blunt 45-41 (and only 41-40 without leaners). Roy Blunt, meanwhile, is engaging in typical frontrunner behavior, trying to limit debates (to avoid any grist for the negative ad mill); there will only be two debates, neither in a network TV setting.

• NC-Sen: National Research for Civitas (9/15-17, likely voters, 7/19-21 in parentheses):

Elaine Marshall (D): 29 (37)

Richard Burr (R-inc): 49 (44)

Mike Beitler (L): 3 (3)

Undecided: 17 (15)

(MoE: ±4%)

Thanks to a big lead with unaffiliateds (48-21), Richard Burr has a big lead in North Carolina. With a big financial disparity, unless there’s some outside assistance, that lead’s probably going to continue (although I’d be surprised if it’s actually a full 20 points). One other interesting note: Civitas hires out third-party pollsters, and this is their first poll since they switched to Republican internal pollster National Research.

• NV-Sen, NV-Gov: The only evidence we have of this poll is a Jon Ralston tweet, but apparently there’s a poll rumbling around behind the scenes from a reputable Republican pollster that gives a 5-point lead to Harry Reid, 42-37 (among RVs). That’s quite plausible; the real shock here, though, is that it also finds Rory Reid trailing only by 6 in the governor’s race.

• WV-Sen: The big news here is probably that the NRSC is plowing $1.2 million into this race, hoping for the upset (as this race seems to be increasingly taking the place of Washington and California) or at least to pull DSCC fire away from elsewhere. That’s just to run one new ad, tying Joe Manchin to Barack Obama; part of the expense is that the ad is running in the DC market, so it can reach the Panhandle. (You can see the IE filing here.)

One more plus, though, for Joe Manchin, is that he’s getting the NRA’s endorsement (one more in a seemingly endless parade of ConservaDems getting backed this week). Also, some details about John Raese are surfacing that may lead to ads that write themselves: photos of his marble-driveway Florida mansion, where it turns out his family lives full-time (presumably because of Florida’s big juicy homestead exemption, but also because of the schools, as he wants a school system he “believes in”)… and Raese’s own description, in a radio interview yesterday, of how hard he worked for his riches:

RAESE: I made my money the old-fashioned way, I inherited it. I think that’s a great thing to do. I hope more people in this country have that opportunity as soon as we abolish inheritance tax in this country, which is a key part of my program.

• AZ-Gov: Here’s a look at the financial situation in Arizona, where both gubernatorial candidates are relying on clean elections public financing in their bids. Dem Terry Goddard has about $1 million left to spend, while Jan Brewer has $860K left. Goddard also spent more in the last reporting period, spending $477K to Brewer’s $291K.

• MA-Gov: If you’re shedding your main campaign strategist with 40 days to go, that’s probably a sign that you’re not going to win. That’s what happened with the Tim Cahill camp, who said goodbye to John Weaver. Having seen Cahill’s share plunge into the single digits, Weaver said (in a parting shot) at this point, Cahill’s candidacy is just hurting Charlie Baker’s chances.

• NY-Gov: Marist (9/14-19, likely voters, no trendlines):

Andrew Cuomo (D): 53 (67)

Carl Paladino (R): 34 (22)

Rick Lazio (C) : 9 (NA)

Undecided: 6 (11)

(MoE: ±4%)

I don’t know if the Marist poll exactly qualifies as a tie-breaker in the New York gubernatorial race, but it’s a likely voter poll (instead of an RV poll, like Siena), and it doesn’t have that outlier-ish whiff that Quinnipiac had. Also adding to its potential credibility: it’s about halfway between the two, if erring somewhat on the side of Andrew Cuomo’s safety. (It looks like they’ll release Senate numbers later, separately.)

• CA-47: This is the first time I’ve ever used the scary all-caps to put words in the mouth of a Democratic candidate, but Loretta Sanchez just sent up the alarm that THE VIETNAMESE ARE COMING FOR HER SEAT!!!1!! Not just Van Tran, but apparently all of them!!! I suppose that’s a dog-whistle of sorts to her Latino base in this seat that has a Latino majority (though not a lot of actual voters among them) and a politically active Asian minority, where her Republican challenger is Vietnamese. Kind of a faceplant moment for Sanchez, who has had good outreach to the Vietnamese community in the past (up until now, I’d imagine) and has relied on their votes to stay in office.

• MI-01: Greenberg Quinlan Rosner for Gary McDowell (9/21-22, likely voters, no trendlines):

Gary McDowell (D): 38

Dan Benishek (R): 41

Glenn Wilson (I): 12

Undecided: 9

(MoE: ±4.4%)

Here are some not-bad numbers from an internal for Gary McDowell, showing this is one of the few Republican-leaning open seats where we’re still in fighting shape right now. McDowell’s offering some pushback against a Dan Benishek internal that gave Benishek a 39-25 lead in a race that also includes wealthy independent Glenn Wilson.

• MI-07: It’s a little late in the game for ex-Rep. Tim Walberg to be jumping on the birther train (that’s so 2009…) but he just said that he doesn’t know if Obama was born in the U.S. Meanwhile, his incumbent Dem opponent, Mark Schauer, is out with an internal poll in response to the Rossman Group poll that gave a 4-point lead to Walberg. Schauer’s poll, taken 9/21-22 by Myers Research, finds a mirror-image 4-point lead for Schauer, 49-45 (or if you’d prefer inclusion of all third-party candidates, he’s up 45-43).  

• NRCC: The NRCC is wading into six more districts that they haven’t been in before, with IE ad buys. Most (except for WA-03) of these districts feel like “Lean Dem” districts right now, but where the GOP thinks it can make some inroads: Ike Skelton’s MO-04, Chris Carney’s PA-10, Steve Kagen’s WI-08, Martin Heinrich’s NM-01, and the open seats in MA-10 and WA-03.

• AFF: The financially-disadvantaged NRCC can’t win this all on its own, so AFF is keeping up its IEs, too. They’re going on the air in four new districts, two of which overlap the above list. They’re hitting SD-AL ($360K), TX-17 ($117K), NM-01 ($290K), and WA-03 ($875K).

• SSP TV:

• CO-Sen: The softer side of Ken Buck? He’s out with a positive ad with testimonials from senior citizens

• FL-Sen: Charlie Crist simultaneously hits both his opponents on corruption issues in one ad, hitting Kendrick Meek’s real estate dealing and Marco Rubio’s enthusiastic use of RPOF credit cards

• NC-Sen: It seemed to work well the first time for Richard Burr, so the rocking chair guys are back for another round

• NV-Sen: The newest ad from Harry Reid hits Sharron Angle for not supporting requiring health insurers to cover mammograms and colonoscopies

• NY-Sen-A: Chuck Schumer’s running his first ad of the cycle, a bio spot, on local cable

• PA-Sen: Pat Toomey’s newest ad is a hard negative one linking Joe Sestak to Barack Obama; interestingly, it’s not running in the Philadelphia market

• WA-Sen: Dem group Commonsense Ten is out with an anti-Dino Rossi ad throwing the kitchen sink at him, including the foreclosure seminars

• CA-Gov: The latest Meg Whitman opus attacks Jerry Brown over Oakland schools during his tenure as mayor

• CA-47: Loretta Sanchez launches a negative ad against Van Tran, featuring him asleep on the job (during an Assembly budget all-nighter)

• LA-03: Bet you’d forgotten there’s still one race where the field isn’t set? (There’s still a GOP runoff here.) Anyway, Hunt Downer is out with an ad full of adorable babies… to make the point that Jeff Landry is insufficiently pro-life

• PA-03: Kathy Dahlkemper engages in some fat-cat bashing, tying Mike Kelly to Wall Street

• Rasmussen:

• FL-Gov: Alex Sink (D) 44%, Rick Scott (R) 50%

• FL-Sen: Kendrick Meek (D) 21%, Marco Rubio (R) 40%, Charlie Crist (I) 31%

• MN-Gov: Mark Dayton (D) 41%, Tom Emmer (R) 42%, Tom Horner (I) 9%

• OK-Gov: Jari Askins (D) 34%, Mary Fallin (R) 60%

• SC-Gov: Vincent Sheheen (D) 33%, Nikki Haley (R) 50%

• TX-Gov: Bill White (D) 42%, Rick Perry (R-inc) 48%

• AK-Sen: If anything makes clear the depth of the NRSC’s change of allegiance from Lisa Murkowski to Joe Miller, check out the list of five different NRSC-organized, Senator-filled fundraisers that’ll be held on Miller’s behalf next week. Murkowski, meanwhile, is shrugging off the loss of her leadership post (which went to John Barrasso) and ranking committee position, seeming more focused on the mechanics of her write-in bid. She’s going to have to do a little better than this, though (although Alaska doesn’t require precise spelling of write-ins): the original version of the ad telling people about her write-in bid directed people to a URL that misspelled her name (LisaMurkwski.com). (I wonder if some cybersquatter has already grabbed that URL by now?)

• AR-Sen: Ipsos, on behalf of Reuters, is out with a look at Arkansas, a Senate race that’s hardly worth looking at anymore. Nevertheless, they show a closer race than anybody else has lately: Blanche Lincoln trails John Boozman by “only” 14, a 53-39 gap among LVs. Lincoln’s favorables seem to be improving a bit too, but time’s running out for a full-fledged comeback.

• CO-Sen: Here’s a tantalizing tidbit, although it doesn’t have any bearing on the current race, just likely to exacerbate the seemingly-escalating war between the NRSC and Jim DeMint. It turns out the NRSC gave the maximum $42K to Jane Norton, just four days before the GOP primary. Not much of a vote of confidence in Ken Buck, is it?

• NH-Sen: Unfortunately, where many Republican primaries have dissolved into acrimony afterwards, we’re seeing lots of unity in New Hampshire. Ovide Lamontagne is helping to raise funds for narrow victor Kelly Ayotte at a DC fundraiser scheduled for Sep. 27.

• WA-Sen: Considering the play this has gotten in the local press, this small comment on a parochial issue looks to be a major faceplant for Dino Rossi… he dared depart from the party line on the mighty Boeing. He suggested that Boeing should get no favorable treatment from the Pentagon in its competition with Airbus (whose efforts are subsidized by European governments) over who gets to build the next-generation Air Force tanker. (To put that in context, that would be like a candidate going to Iowa and dissing ethanol, or going to West Virginia and dissing coal.) Boeing had already explicitly endorsed Patty Murray, but now she has a nuclear-grade weapon to use against Rossi in the Boeing-dependent swingy suburbs.

And here’s a hat tip to Horsesass’s Goldy, who spots some interesting details in the fine print of that Elway Poll from last week. People were surprised when that CNN/Time poll found a reverse enthusiasm gap for the Dems in Washington (with Murray faring better among LVs than RVs), but Elway actually shows something similar. The 50-41 topline was LVs, but pushed leaners. Include only the “definite voters” and that pushes up to a 13-pt lead for Murray (43-30). I don’t have one good explanation for this phenomenon, but I’d guess it’s a combination of a) Dems being more diehard liberal in Washington and less swingy and/or sporadic than in other states, b) the economy being somewhat better in Washington than many other places, and c) teabagger ennui after Clint Didier lost the primary to establishment leftover Dino Rossi.

• NM-Gov: We’ve got dueling banjos internals in the Land of Enchantment. Susana Martinez whipped it out first, rolling out a POS poll from last week with a 50-40 lead for her. Not to be outdone, Diane Denish pulled out her own poll from GQR from the same timeframe, showing that Martinez is leading “only” 49-44. Um… take that?

• NY-Gov: Rick Lazio is hedging on what exactly he’s going to do with his spot on the Conservative Party line, sounding like he wants to wait and see how Carl Paladino fares before making up his mind. Meanwhile, Andrew Cuomo got a pretty significant endorsement, from NYC mayor Michael Bloomberg, which may sway a few moderate indies but is probably mostly helpful from a GOTV organizational standpoint within the city. Meanwhile, you might have also heard something about a poll of this race today? I’ve heard a few rumblings. Anyway, we’re deferring discussion of today’s Quinnipiac poll until the Siena and SurveyUSA polls, due tomorrow, also come out, offering us a better yardstick.

• RI-Gov, RI-01: Quest for WJAR-TV (9/15-17, likely voters, no trendlines):

Frank Caprio (D): 36

John Robitaille (R): 13

Lincoln Chafee (I): 24

Ken Block (M): 2

Undecided: 25

David Cicilline (D): 49

John Loughlin (R): 26

Undecided: 25

(MoE: ±4.7%)

This is probably the biggest lead we’ve seen for Frank Caprio in the Governor’s race, and also the first post-primary poll of the race in the 1st, which looks to be an easy race for Providence mayor David Cicilline despite being an open seat in a dangerous year. The poll also finds the Dems easily winning the LG, AG, SoS, and RI-02 races.

• TN-Gov: Crawford Johnson and Northcott for WSMV-TV (registered voters, trendlines from early July):

Mike McWherter (D): 24 (34)

Bill Haslam (R): 55 (60)

Undecided: 19 (6)

(MoE: ±4%)

I’m not going out on a limb by saying we can expect Bill Haslam to win the Tennessee governor’s race. The only odd thing here is that this is WSMV’s second poll of the race, and the number of undecideds has shot up dramatically since July (of course, it’s a mystery how there were so few back then).

• FL-22: Anzalone-Liszt for Ron Klein (9/14-16, likely voters, no trendlines):

Ron Klein (D): 48

Allen West (R): 40

(MoE: ±4.4%)

While this isn’t an awe-inspiring lead for Klein in his own internal, it’s a good topline and there are some interesting numbers in the fine print. Most notably, West’s unfavorables have tripled (to 26%) since May as people have started paying attention.

• MA-04: OMG, even Barney Frank’s in trouble! (In case you couldn’t tell, I was being sarcastic.) (Or was I?) Anyway, the Republican candidate running against Frank, Sean Bielat, is out with a poll from GOP pollster On Message giving Frank a 48-38 lead over Bielat. I suppose a ceiling of 38% is plausible for a no-name GOPer in this part of Massachusetts, which went 63% for Obama but includes a lot of exurbs and went narrowly for Scott Brown in the special election, but I’m unclear on how he gets much further than that.

• PA-03: Franklin & Marshall (9/14-19, registered voters, no trendlines):

Kathy Dahlkemper (D-inc): 38

Mike Kelly (R): 44

(MoE: ±4.8%)

This seems to be the first truly independent poll of this race, although we’ve seen various internals and Republican third-party polls all showing Dahlkemper in trouble, though not always losing. Franklin & Marshall opts for the “losing” side, although it’s slightly less severe among RVs (42-38).

• VA-05: Benenson Strategy Group for Tom Perriello (9/14-16, likely voters, no trendlines):

Tom Perriello (D): 44

Rob Hurt (R): 46

Jeff Clark (I): 4

Undecided: 5

(MoE: ±4.9%)

Not much difference here than that DCCC poll by Global Strategy Group a few weeks ago that also saw Perriello down by 2. Again, not the most appetizing numbers for rolling out when it’s your own internal, but at least it’s some pushback against those SurveyUSA numbers.

• WA-09: Benenson Strategy Group for Adam Smith (9/18-20, likely voters, no trendlines):

Adam Smith (D): 54

Dick Muri (R): 35

Undecided: 19

(MoE: ±4.9%)

Hmmm, speaking of pushback against SurveyUSA numbers, here’s an internal from the Adam Smith camp (who were seen as being in a close race in a public poll from over the weekend). Now these are the kind of internal poll numbers we like to see… although the very fact that Adam Smith should have to be releasing internal polls in the first place is, well, a sign of the times.

• DCCC: Here’s some interesting money shuffling from the DCCC, which might portend an increased focus on GOTV. A CQ piece detailing some miscellany from their report this month included a number of transfers from the DCCC to state Democratic party committees. That includes $196K to Ohio, $142K to Arizona, and $132K to Arizona.

• American Crossroads: Wasn’t the “Crossroads” myth about selling your soul to the devil? At any rate, Politico is out with a nauseating story that’s a stark counterpoint to the normal old committee numbers that we released this morning: while the Dems have advantages at the committee level, they’re getting crushed in outside TV spending by third-party groups, to the tune of $23.6 million for GOP ads to $4.8 million for Dem ads. (Of course, some of that is money that in previous cycles would have gone to the RNC, which is way out of whack (or “wack,” as Michael Steele might say) and unable to do much with its usual task of helping state committees… making the GOP more reliant than ever on hoping that their air saturation can overcome disadvantages in the ground game.)

The largest of these groups, of course, is American Crossroads, which is out with six new attack ads in different Senate races: Illinois ($482K), Kentucky ($235K), Nevada ($320K), New Hampshire ($643K), Ohio ($260K), and Pennsylvania ($226K). I know the teabaggers like to think that when the 2010 election is written in the history books, the story will be about some sort of populist uprising, but more likely, their useful idiocy will be long forgotten and the story will be about the uprising of a dozen or so billionaires, leveraging tens of millions on ads in order to save themselves hundreds of billions in taxes.

• SSP TV:

• CT-Sen: The state Democratic party goes after Linda McMahon, looking at job cuts she oversaw at WWE

• MO-Sen: The DSCC wades back into Missouri, looking at how Roy Blunt keeps his corruption all in the family

• MD-Gov: A DGA-allied group hits Bob Ehrlich for being in the pocket of utilities during and after his gubernatorial term

• IL-10: Dan Seals goes negative against Bob Dold!, hitting him on social security and abortion rights

• IL-14: Nancy Pelosi’s coming for you! Booogetyboogetyboogety! (or so says Randy Hultgren’s second ad)

• NC-02: Renee Elmers found the money to run an ad? Well, it is cable only… Anyway, it’s about the Burlington Coat Factory mosque, despite that Bob Etheridge says he doesn’t support it

• PA-11: Paul Kanjorski again goes negative on Lou Barletta on the bread and butter stuff, hitting for him opposition to a State Department security forces training center for the district

• PA-17: Even Tim Holden’s hitting the airwaves with two different ads, one that’s a soft bio spot for himself, and then an attack on his opponent’s role in legislative pay raises

• WA-08: Suzan DelBene’s second ad is against negative against Dave Reichert, especially for opposing financial reform

• Rasmussen:

• AK-Gov: Ethan Berkowitz (D) 34%, Sean Parnell (R-inc) 54%

• CA-Gov: Jerry Brown (D) 47%, Meg Whitman (R) 46%

• IL-Sen: Alexi Giannoulias (D) 41%, Mark Kirk (R) 44%, LeAlan Jones (G) 4%

• ME-Gov: Libby Mitchell (D) 27%, Paul LePage (R) 45%, Eliot Cutler (I) 14%

• MI-Gov: Virg Bernero (D) 38%, Rick Snyder (R) 51%

• NY-Sen: Charles Schumer (D-inc) 58%, Jay Townsend (R) 36%

Swing State Project is rolling out another round of updates to our House, Senate and Gubernatorial race ratings charts. This may seem like an alarming large number to do all at once, especially since almost all the changes are favorable to Republicans, but that’s not in response to any particular event or series of events. Mostly, we’re just playing catchup after having been a little slow in performing a global update since late July, and obviously the general environment deteriorated over August for Dems (although we might have seen a slight uptick in their fortunes, at least in terms of generic ballot tests and mindless Beltway CW, in the last week).

• AZ-Sen: Races to Watch to Safe R
• CT-Sen: Likely D to Lean D
• IN-Sen: Lean R to Likely R
• MO-Sen: Tossup to Lean R
• OH-Sen: Tossup to Lean R
• PA-Sen: Tossup to Lean R

• AZ-Gov: Tossup to Lean R
• CO-Gov: Lean D to Likely D
• CT-Gov: Tossup to Lean D
• IL-Gov: Tossup to Lean R
• ME-Gov: Tossup to Lean R
• NH-Gov: Safe D to Likely D
• NM-Gov: Tossup to Lean R
• NV-Gov: Lean R to Likely R
• WI-Gov: Tossup to Lean R

• AR-02: Lean R to Likely R
• AZ-01: Lean D to Tossup
• AZ-05: Lean D to Tossup
• CA-47: Likely D to Lean D
• CO-03: Likely D to Tossup
• CO-07: Likely D to Lean D
• CT-05: Likely D to Lean D
• FL-02: Lean D to Tossup
• IA-01: Safe D to Likely D
• IL-11: Lean D to Tossup
• IL-14: Lean D to Tossup
• IL-17: Likely D to Lean D
• KY-03: Likely D to Lean D
• LA-02: Likely D to Lean D
• ME-01: Safe D to Likely D
• ME-02: Safe D to Likely D
• MI-07: Lean D to Tossup
• MI-09: Likely D to Lean D
• NY-29: Lean R to Likely R
• OR-05: Likely D to Lean D
• PA-03: Lean D to Tossup
• PA-07: Tossup to Lean R
• PA-08: Lean D to Tossup
• SC-05: Lean D to Tossup
• WA-02: Likely D to Tossup
• WA-03: Tossup to Lean R

39 of these changes favor Republicans; 2 races have moved in the Democratic direction.

DE-Sen: Christine O’Donnell has decided to go the J.D. Salinger route: She told Sean Hannity that she’s doing no more interviews, ever. Okay, well, at least as far as the national media are concerned. But it’s nothing to get upset over, sports fans: Thanks to the advent of the Internet, we will hear about all her gaffes and insanities even if she’s only talking to the Kent County Evening Bugle-Reporter-Sentinel. In that same interview with Hannity, she also managed to tell some nice lies about Chris Coons, claiming that he “made some very anti-American statements, apologizing for America and calling himself a bearded Marxist.” Of course, the “bearded Marxist” line was a joke, though undoubtedly O’Donnell is too dense to grasp that.

CO-Gov: You know, as we were getting to know Christine O’Donnell, I had a feeling that she was so low-rent, she’d make even Dan Maes look good. Well, that appears to be all but fucking impossible, even for O’Donnell. Maes raised just $14K in the first two weeks of September and currently has $24K in the bank. Not sure there’s a sack big enough fit that much sad.

MI-Gov: WLNS-TV could have saved themselves some money by just reading the Swing State Project, but they went ahead and commissioned a poll of the gubernatorial race anyway. Anyhow, the Marketing Resource Group shows exactly what you’d expect: Rick Snyder beating Virg Bernero 49-31.

AL-02: The NRA’s infiltration of the Democratic Party continues apace, this time with an endorsement for Bobby Bright.

AZ-07: This smells fishy to me. A Republican operative is saying he’s seen internal polls showing Some Dude Ruth McClung in a dead heat with Rep. Raul Grijalva in this 57% Obama district. But local Dem and GOP pols say they’ve seen nothing of the kind. McClung has only $15K on hand, but this ain’t good: Grijalva, after spending half a mil so far this cycle, has just $77K in the bank.

IA-02: Evidently Mariannette Miller-Meeks did not get the Club For Growth’s memo: She’s now saying she opposes privatizing Social Security, ostensibly because she thinks its finances are rickety. But isn’t the whole reason conservative douchewads want to private Social Security is because that’s how they think they can “save” it? I’m confused!

ID-01: Heh – fucker couldn’t buy a break even if Ron Popiel was selling `em. Even though the NRA gave Raul Labrador a better grade than Walt Minnick, they declined to endorse either candidate. Suckaaaaa.

WATN?: Remember this story? Last cycle, Chris Shays’ former campaign manager, Michael Sohn, stole a quarter million dollars from his boss’s election accounts. Now, Sohn has been sentenced to 37 months in prison. Shays must go to sleep every night wondering if that extra $250K would have meant the difference between winning and losing….

SSP TV (by James L.):

• FL-Sen: Charlie Crist’s new ad hits Rubio for all the pork-laden bills that he sent to the Governor’s desk while serving as Speaker of the Florida House
• KY-Sen: Conservative group American Crossroads spending $235K against Jack Conway (D) – no copy of ad yet
• NH-Sen: Paul Hodes’ new ad is a folksy spot on fiscal conservatism, including chiding Kelly Ayotte for supporting tax cuts for the rich
• CO-07: Ryan Frazier wields some kind of laser pen while reciting a bunch of B.S. GOP boilerplate
• FL-22: Allen West says that Ron Klein is no moderate
• FL-24: Suzanne Kosmas would like you to know that she’s never gonna give you up, never gonna let you down
• MO-04: Ike Skelton issues a fierce but vague attack on GOPer Vicky Hartzler’s support for veterans, from the mouths of veterans
• NY-20: Chris Gibson says that we have to let market forces drive healthcare costs down. Yeah, like that worked the first time, moron.
• PA-03: Mike Kelly and the NRCC team up to hit Kathy Dahlkemper on SPENDING OUR CHILDREN’S FUTURE INTO OBLIVION!!!!11!
• PA-04: Keith Rothfus’ new ad takes the ice cream sandwich approach: two layers of delicious cookie crunch surrounding a mid-section of negative ice cream. I realize that makes no sense, but… God, I’m hungry.
• PA-10: Tom Marino’s first ad plays defense against Chris Carney’s hard-hitting ads against his sleazy record

Independent Expenditures (all from the DCCC today):

• AL-02: $82K media buy
• HI-01: $53K media buy
• IA-03: $71K media buy/production
• IL-14: $19K on direct mail
• MI-01: $24K media buy
• MI-07: $67K media buy
• MS-01: $49K media buy/production
• NC-08: $200K media buy/production
• NY-24: $27K media buy/production
• OH-13: $232K media buy/production
• OH-16: $26K media buy/production
• WI-07: $61K media buy
• VA-02: $86K media buy/production

• AR-Sen: Move along, nothing to see here. Talk Business, via Hendrix College, is out with another poll of the Arkansas Senate race. They find John Boozman leading Blanche Lincoln 56-29, with 5 for indie Trevor Drown. (The previous Talk Business poll, taken by Zata|3, had it at 57-32.)

• DE-Sen: Trying to put his money where his mouth is, Jim DeMint, via his Senate Conservatives Funds, is going on the air with a new cable TV spot on behalf of Christine O’Donnell. The buy is for at least $250K. As I expected, it makes very obvious hay out of Harry Reid’s dumb reference to Chris Coons as his “pet.”

• FL-Sen: This is a long read, but worth checking out, not just from a partisan standpoint but also as insight into the constant revolving door between politics, big law, academia, and the nebulous world of “consulting.” It’s a thorough going-over of Marco Rubio’s finances over the years, looking at some of the already-known stuff (his foreclosure problems and overuse of state party credit cards) but also at the connections that have gradually allowed him to enrich himself.

• KS-Sen, KS-Gov: SurveyUSA finds… brace yourselves… Republicans in the lead in Kansas! The Senate race appears to be out in no-man’s land, with Jerry Moran leading Lisa Johnston 66-24. The Governor’s race, however, remains moderately interesting, with Sam Brownback up over Tom Holland 59-32. Still not a good result, but that’s a 15-point swing in Holland’s favor from last time, as he now leads among self-described moderates.

• KY-Sen: This poll from last week is probably interesting enough for the front page… but it’s getting more than a little stale, after our having repeatedly fumbled attempts to write it up, so we’re just dropping it off here (figuring many of you have already seen it on over at Daily Kos). PPP, on behalf of Big Orange, finds that Rand Paul leads Jack Conway 49-42. On the plus side, not much of an enthusiasm gap here, thanks to Paul’s polarizing nature; it’s just a solidly red state.

• LA-Sen: Two different polls in Louisiana tell different stories. Dem pollster Bennett Petts & Normington, on behalf of the DSCC, sees a 10-point race, with David Vitter leading Charlie Melancon 48-38. On the other hand, Republican pollster Magellan sees it as an 18-point race: 52-34. The truth, as is often said, probably lies somewhere in between.

• UT-Sen: The Senate half of the Dan Jones poll (for the Deseret News and KSL-TV) finally showed up. In what could be called “not a surprise,” the Republican is winning in Utah. Mike Lee (who turfed out Bob Bennett at the state convention) is easily beating Sam Granato, 52-25.

• WA-Sen: Here’s a nice story about hypocrisy… or hypoc-Rossi, in this case. Dino Rossi made a campaign stop at a Whidbey Island shipyard last week, one that’s nearly doubled its workforce from 130 to 210. Turns out, though, that the shipyard received $841K in stimulus funds, and the yard’s owner says the expansion is a direct result of the stimulus. (Interestingly, Rossi, without any guidance from Admiral Ackbar, may have sailed right into A TRAP: he showed up at the invitation of the yard’s owner, who has donated to Patty Murray in the past.)

• WI-Sen: If that Rossi hypocrisy story seems kind of small potatoes to you, well, don’t worry, because Ron Johnson seems to have, over the last few weeks, been exposed as the absolute master of hypocrisy about engorging yourself on the government teat all the while raging against it. While he can claim that building-a-rail-spur-to-Pacur thing was in the distant past, now it comes out that in March 2009, in his role as board member of Oshkosh’s Grand Opera House, he sought stimulus funds for renovations to the opera. Y’know, the stimulus bill that’s KILLING US ALL AND ALL FUTURE GENERATIONS!!1!  

• WV-Sen: Joe Manchin has had good relations with the state-level Chamber of Commerce, who’ve backed him in the past. They must have put in a good word for him with the national organization, as now the US Chamber of Commerce is endorsing him too, quite the rarity for a high-profile Dem.

• FL-Gov: Rick Scott’s previous defense against the massive Medicare fraud problems at his former healthcare company Columbia/HCA was that he’d have stopped them if only he’d known they were going on (which, considering his job was to run the company, should have demolished his credibility right there). But now it’s been revealed that his legal team was keeping him apprised, at least on the issue of trying to skirt a federal anti-kickback law.

• FL-22: They’ve had to call out the biggest fundraising gun of all for Ron Klein, seeing as how he’s up against a nutty opponent but one with a direct line into seemingly hundreds of thousands of teabaggers’ wallets in Allen West. Barack Obama will fundraise for Klein in the Miami area on Oct. 11 (at the home of former NBA star Alonzo Mourning).

• MS-01: The Tarrance Group is out with another Alan Nunnelee internal giving him a single-digit lead over Travis Childers in the 1st: this time, he’s up 48-41.

• NY-23: Would you believe the NY-23 count is still going on? Although it seems like Matt Doheny is the likely victor in the GOP primary, with a 582-vote lead right now, 1,969 military and overseas ballots remain to be counted. In Friday’s count, Doug Hoffman added 207 votes while Doheny added 177.

• American Crossroads: Rove, Inc., seems to be becoming the main conduit for billionaires looking to put their thumbs on the electoral scales but skeptical of the Michael Steele-helmed RNC: they raised $14.5 million in the last 30 days, almost doubling their year-to-date total.

• NRCC: The NRCC is out with a bonanza of IEs in 23 different districts (click the FEC link for specific numbers): PA-11, VA-09, PA-08, WI-07, NJ-03, PA-03, IL-14, MI-01, MI-07, PA-07, NC-07, IL-11, AL-02, AZ-01, CA-11, FL-02, KY-06, MS-01, TN-08, TX-23, VA-05, IN-02, and IL-10.

• SEIU: So, while the CoC is endorsing the Dem in West Virginia, the SEIU is endorsing the not-Dem in Rhode Island: they’ve thrown their backing behind indie Lincoln Chafee. (United Nurses and Allied Professionals will also endorse Chafee today, and the AFL-CIO is currently meeting about which way to go.) The SEIU is also out with a couple IEs of their own, spending $250K against Tim Walberg in MI-07 and $435K against deep-pocketed Jim Renacci in OH-16.

• SSP TV:

• CO-Sen: The DSCC is out with three different ads focusing on various aspects of Ken Buck’s nuttery, including the 17th Amendment and opposition to common birth control methods

• CT-Sen: Richard Blumenthal’s ad focuses on pushback against various Linda McMahon misrepresentations

• FL-22: Ron Klein calls out Allen West for his various veiled calls for armed uprising

• HI-01: Charles Djou’s first ad of the general is a positive spot listing accomplishments from his short time in office

• IL-10: Bob Dold! ties Dan Seals to Nancy Pelosi in a health care-themed ad

• PA-10: Here’s the winner of the day: Chris Carney quickly and effectively summarizes the nasty links between Tom Marino and Louis DeNaples

• PA-15: Charlie Dent goes after John Callahan’s bookkeeping as mayor of Bethlehem

• WI-08: Steve Kagen dips into the well of 50s-era public-domain stock footage to hit Reid Ribble on his calls for Social Security phaseout

• Rasmussen:

• MD-Gov: Martin O’Malley (D-inc) 50%, Bob Ehrlich 47%

• MD-Sen: Barbara Mikulski (D-inc) 54%, Eric Wargotz (R) 38%

• NH-Gov: John Lynch (D-inc) 48%, John Stephen (R) 46%

• NY-Gov: Andrew Cuomo (D) 54%, Carl Paladino (R) 38%, Rick Lazio (C) 0% because Rasmussen didn’t bother to include him

• WI-Gov: Tom Barrett (D) 43%, Scott Walker (R) 51%

• WV-Sen: Joe Manchin (D) 50%, John Raese (R) 43%

AK-Sen: This is pretty lulzy – Lisa Murkowski is busy reassuring people that she’ll still have the support of K Street as she pursued her write-in bid. In a year like this, that’s the message you want to run on? It’s even sadder that she probably feels like she has to reassure her corporate masters that she’s still there for them.

DE-Sen: Merry meet and blessed be! Bill Maher unearths a 1999 clip of Christine O’Donnell (a frequent guest on his show), and promises there’s more where this came from:

I dabbled into witchcraft – I never joined a coven. But I did, I did. … I dabbled into witchcraft. I hung around people who were doing these things. I’m not making this stuff up. I know what they told me they do. […]

One of my first dates with a witch was on a satanic altar, and I didn’t know it. I mean, there’s little blood there and stuff like that. … We went to a movie and then had a midnight picnic on a satanic altar.

Yesterday, though, O’Donnell decided to skip visits to some other satanic altars, namely Sunday talk shows “FOX News Sunday” and CBS’s “Face the Nation.” Dissing Bob Schieffer I can understand – I mean, that’s straight out of the Sarah Palin/Sharron Angle hide-in-a-deep-underground-bunker playbook. But the friendly confines of FOX? How will she get a job there when she moves on to her next gig in the grifter’s circuit?

AK-Gov: Last week we learned the disappointing news that Republican Bill Walker, who scored 30% running against Gov. Sean Parnell, would not make a third-party gubernatorial bid. But now he’s saying that Lisa Murkowski has inspired him and he might yet wage a write-in campaign. Godspeed, good buddy!

IL-Gov: GOP-affiliated robopollster We Ask America has their first survey of the race, finding Republican Bob Brady at 42, Gov. Pat Quinn at 32, and everybody’s favorite, Scott Lee Cohen, at 5.

NY-Gov: Speaking of SLC, it looks like the NY GOP has a reverse Scott Lee Cohen situation on their hands. Basically, the less-crazy guy – Greg Edwards, who was supposed to be Rick Lazio’s running-mate, won the Republican Lt. Gov. nomination. Revolting meat-bucket (and, dear lord, gubernatorial nominee) Carl Paladino preferred many-time loser Tom Ognibene instead. There’s chatter now that Edwards may stay on the ballot but not really run, or will try to drop out (a somewhat tricky proposition in NY). If he does successfully bail, the state GOP would appoint a replacement (presumably Ognibene, if Paladino’s in charge). Anyhow, I suggest you click through for Celeste Katz’s full story, because there are so many layers and permutations to this story that I simply can’t summarize them all.

Ognibene may be the only guy actually not running away from Paladino as fast as he can. GOP comptroller nominee Harry Wilson has refused to endorse Paladino, and attorney general nominee Dan Donovan is basically saying the same thing. Haven’t seen any word yet as to whether senate nominee Joe DioGuardi feels the same way.

CO-03: Republican Scott Tipton is now saying he’s no longer a Seventeenther (you know, a maniac who wants to get rid of the direct election of United States senators), despite having answered a teabagger survey on that very question in the affirmative. He’s also claiming that he doesn’t want to abolish the Department of Education. Live by the yes-no question, die by the yes-no question.

MO-04: Another day, another Dem gets endorsed by the NRA. This time, it’s veteran Ike Skelton.

NY-15: Adam Clayton Powell, who took just 25% against Charlie Rangel’s 53% in a fractured field, is saying he already has plans to run again. Of course, this district’s lines (and even number) could change substantially before 2012.

NY-19: Big Dog Alert (retroactive)! Bill Clinton did a fundraiser for Rep. John Hall in Cortland Manor this past weekend. Of course, Clinton lives (“lives”) just outside the 19th CD in Chappaqua (in the 18th).

PA-10: In a previous digest, we related the story of then-U.S. Attorney Tom Marino providing a personal reference for “businessman” Louis DeNaples’s bid to get a casino license – while DeNaples (euphemistically described as “having possible ties to organized crime”) was under investigation by Marino’s office. These dealings led to Marino’s resignation in 2007 (and, surprise surprise, he soon wound up with a nice sinecure as DeNaples’s in-house counsel). Marino claimed in April that the Department of Justice gave him permission to serve as a reference to DeNaples (then why did you resign?), but has never provided any proof. Now the AP is saying that a DoJ source tells them that there is no evidence that Marino ever received such authorization. The heat is on.

DCCC: The D-Trip has added Annie Kuster (NH-02) and Bill Keating (MA-10) to Red to Blue.

DC-Mayor: Deposed incumbent Dem Adrian Fenty says he won’t try to run in the general as a Republican. Given that there are probably 19 registered Republicans in the entire district, I’m not sure how this was even an idea in the first place.

Polltopia: Go tell Public Policy Polling where to poll next.

SSP-TV:

• DE-Sen: DSCC ad says Christine O’Donnell will “fit right in in Washington,” thanks to her personal fiscal irresponsibility. Uh, do they remember who is in charge in DC?
• IL-Sen: CQ reports that the DSCC is set to go up here this week for a quarter mil, but no links to actual ads yet
• PA-Sen: Joe Sestak’s new ad compares his navy service to Pat Toomey’s service on behalf of Wall Street
  

• FL-Gov: Two Alex Sink ads, one dinging Rick Scott for harping on endlessly about Obama, the other talking about schools
• NY-Gov: Andrew Cuomo’s second spot, featuring an endorsement from a former state Republican Party chair
• MA-10: Fresh off his primary win last week, Dem Bill Keating is up with an ad on a good issue: his pledge not to raise the retirement age for Social Security (contrasting with his Republican opponent’s desire to do so)
• MI-07: SEIU spot hitting GOPer Tim Walberg for failing to support the auto industry and wanting to eliminate Social Security (CQ says buy is for $250K)
• NC-11: Two spots from Heath Shuler: the first a touching ad about his efforts to build new veterans’ health clinics, the second hammering Jeff Miller for supporting the bad kind of SSP
• NH-01: Carol Shea-Porter’s first ad, a mostly positive spot emphasizing that “whether it’s popular or not,” she “always fights for what she believes in,”
• NY-19: George Pataki’s PAC Revere America has a spot hitting John Hall with scaaaaary music over his vote in support of healthcare reform
• NY-23: Bill Owens’ first ad, which redistricting geeks will appreciate, emphasizing just how big the district is physically
• NY-24: Richard Hanna personally narrates a negative ad attacking Mike Arcuri for his support of the stimulus and bailouts – I think it’s pretty effective
• OH-13: GOPer Tom Ganley’s spot touts his work with the FBI (as a civilian) to bring down some mob extortionists
• NRCC: CQ rounds up ads targeting Kathy Dahlkemper (PA-03), Bryan Lentz (PA-07), Paul Kanjorski (PA-11) and John Adler (NJ-03) (click here for Adler ad)

Independent Expenditures:

• Americans for Job Security: The right-wing front group is launching some huge buys: $443K against Mike Arcuri (NY-24), $526K against Larry Kissell (NC-08), and $712K against Heath Shuler (NC-11)
• NY-19: Curses! Those meddling ophthalmologists! The (non-rogue) American Academy Of Ophthalmology, Inc. Political Committee (aka OPHTHPAC) is throwing down $143K on behalf of one of their own, Republican eye doctor Nan Hayworth (NY-19)

• AK-Sen: Lisa Murkowski is still mum on the prospects of a write-in run, but this looks like a potentially important tea leaf: she isn’t returning to the Beltway as the Senate goes back into session, but is remaining in Alaska attending to… something. Maybe it’s the grieving process, but it’s also shades of how Bob Bennett behaved while he weighed his post-primary recourse. And while this hadn’t looked likely in a week, Libertarian candidate David Haase confirmed he won’t step down to make way for Murkowski on the Libertarian line… so it’s write-in or bust for her.

• DE-Sen: With everyone abuzz over last night’s PPP poll giving Christine O’Donnell an improbable lead in the GOP primary, there’s word today of a Mike Castle internal giving him a 7-point lead (it’s buried deep in this Politico article, with no further details). PPP has some further thoughts on their poll, pointing out that in some ways Castle might be in worse shape than Lisa Murkowski going into the primary: his faves among GOP voters were 43/47, compared with Murk’s 48/46, and 55% thought he was too liberal, compared to 47% in Alaska. At any rate, the right wing is still engaged in full court press on O’Donnell’s behalf, though, with Sarah Palin cutting a radio ad for her. And if you’re like me, you were spending a lot of time last night trying to mentally ballpark how big an impact on an O’Donnell win would have on overall odds of retaining the Senate… well, don’t worry, because Nate Silver has already figured it out for you.

• ME-Sen: So after Murkowski and Castle, which GOPer is next on the chopping block? Looks like it’s Olympia Snowe, looking ahead to 2012. PPP finds that only 29% of Republicans are committed to backing Snowe in that year’s primary, with 63% saying they’ll back a more conservative alternative. Snowe loses a hypothetical primary matchup with 2006 gubernatorial nominee Chandler Woodcock, 38-33.

• NH-Sen: GOP pollster Magellan is out with a last-minute pre-primary look at the GOP Senate field, and they find the closest result yet for late-surging Ovide Lamontagne. It still doesn’t look likely he can pull out the upset unless somehow an extra week or two of stoppage time got added to the election’s clock (based on the rate at which he’s closing), but he’s within 4. The poll puts it at Kelly Ayotte 35, Lamontagne 31, Bill Binnie 14, Jim Bender 10.

• CO-Gov: Could the Colorado GOP find itself a “minor party” in 2012, mostly just an embarrassment but also something that affects where they’re positioned on the ballot? That’s what would happen if Dan Maes somehow finds himself gaining less than 10% of the vote in November’s gubernatorial race.

• MN-Gov: In a convoluted way, this is likely to help Dem nominee Mark Dayton. The former moderate Republican governor, Arne Carlson, announced that he’s backing the IP nominee, Tom Horner, and will be stumping on his behalf today. That may give some a nice outlet to moderate Republican rank-and-file loath to the too-far-right-for-Minnesota Tom Emmer but who can’t bring themselves to vote DFL.

• OR-Gov: Chris Dudley’s attempts to game the system vis-à-vis the clashing tax structures of Washington and Oregon get dicier the more the media look into it, maybe to the extent of actual tax avoision. (It’s a word. Look it up.) Long story short: he moved his primary residence from Oregon to Washington because Washington doesn’t have income tax (he still had to pay tax on his Trail Blazers salary, but not on capital gains and dividends). However, it’s come to light that not only did he not sell his Portland home, but he just kept on using it at least part-time for years after switching his domicile.

• TX-Gov (pdf): The Texas Tribune is out with another poll of the Texas gubernatorial race via the University of Texas, and they find that while Rick Perry has a decent lead, he’s far from putting the race away yet. Perry leads Dem Bill White 39-33, with 5 for Libertarian Kathie Glass, and 1 for “Green Party” plant Deb Shafto. Dems are losing all the statewide downballot races as well, although Hank Gilbert’s in striking distance in the Agriculture Commissioner race (down 33-26 to Todd Staples).

• LA-02: Despite the warm relations between Barack Obama and GOP Rep. Joe Cao, Obama isn’t going easy on Cao. Obama just gave his endorsement to Dem primary winner Cedric Richmond in a statement last night.

• MD-01: Wow, still no love lost between Wayne Gilchrest and the man who teabagged him to death in the 2008 GOP primary before teabagging was fashionable, Andy Harris. Gilchrest jumped into the fray with an endorsement for Harris’s self-funding primary opponent, Rob Fisher.

• NY-15: Clinton alert, times 4! Hot on the heels of support from Michael Bloomberg for Charlie Rangel ahead of tomorrow’s primary, Bill Clinton (maybe the 15th’s most famous commercial tenant) just cut a robocall on Rangel’s behalf too. The Big Dog is also making campaign appearances in three different gubernatorial races: stumping with Dan Onorato in Pennsylvania today, Mark Dayton in Minnesota tomorrow, and Rory Reid in Nevada on Wednesday.

• DCCC: At SSP, we’re all about The Size Of The Buy, and National Journal has sussed out which of the DCCC’s round of 60 reservations are the biggest ones. There are at least a dozen districts where they’ve reserved $1 million or more: MO-04, NV-03, NH-01, AZ-01, CA-11, AL-02, AZ-05, IN-09, ND-AL, PA-03, and (no surprise here, giving Larry Kissell’s fundraising fail) NC-08. Interestingly, they’re also putting $1.8 million in to FL-25, where they’re on the offensive, a sign of a lot of confidence in Joe Garcia’s chances. (The story also details some investments in big markets where there are multiple races and it’s unclear which races will get the money.)

• AFL-CIO: The AFL-CIO is spending big on a gigantic direct mail binge, hitting 2 million households of members. (They’ll also be making 4 million follow-up phone calls.) The six Senate races involved are NV-Sen, MO-Sen, WI-Sen, IL-Sen, FL-Sen, and PA-Sen; the four gubernatorial races are OR-Gov, OH-Gov, IL-Gov, and MI-Gov. There are also 24 House districts (see the link for more).

• SSP TV:

• NV-Sen: Harry Reid’s newest ad targets Sharron Angle’s “extreme and dangerous” legislative record, focusing on voting against allowing out-of-state restraining orders to be enforced in Nevada

• FL-12: Dennis Ross goes after Dem Lori Edwards, tying her to Obama

• FL-22: Ron Klein moves past the who-cares lien stuff and gets on to the juicy stuff regarding Allen West’s statements about Social Security and Medicare

• MS-01: Another Travis Childers spot goes negative on Alan Nunnelee, hitting him on the regressive “Fair Tax”

• Rasmussen:

• CT-Gov: Dan Malloy (D) 46%, Tom Foley (R) 39%

• IL-Gov: Pat Quinn (D-inc) 37%, Bill Brady (R) 50%, Rich Whitney (G) 4%

• SD-Gov: Scott Heidepriem (D) 28%, Dennis Daugaard (R) 57%