SSP Daily Digest: 3/8 (Morning Edition)

  • FL-Sen: Appointed Republican Sen. George LeMieux apparently has no intention of being a mere seat-warmer. He’s carving out a pretty active profile, and the speculation is that he wants to take on Bill Nelson in 2012.
  • SC-Gov: The once-expansive Democratic gubernatorial primary in South Carolina has been whittled down even further with the exit of attorney/lobbyist Dwight Drake on Friday. We’re now essentially left with a two-way race between state Superintendent Jim Rex and state Sen. Vincent Sheheen, although underfunded state Sen. Robert Ford is also in the mix. (JL)
  • IN-04: Republican pollster Public Opinion Strategies has a pair of surveys out in two adjacent, dark red Hoosier State districts. The first poll, taken for Secretary of State Todd Rokita, has him at 40%, with a 50-6 approval rating. State Sen. Mike Young is in second place at 10%, and two other dudes are in single digits. Everyone tested apart from Rokita has sub-30% name ID. A ton of candidates have filed for this seat, and the primary is just two months away.
  • IN-05: Meanwhile, GOP Rep. Dan Burton is also brandishing a POS poll, this one showing him with 46% of the vote and no one else in double digits. Burton barely survived a challenge from Marion County coroner John McGoff in 2008 (winning 52-45), though I don’t think that internal looks all that great. McGoff is running again, but in Burton’s favor, so are five other dudes.
  • MA-10: State Sen. Robert O’Leary (D) is officially in the race to succeed Bill Delahunt. Many other Dems are likely to jump in, including Norfolk D.A. William Keating. State House Assistant Majority Leader Ronald Mariano is also weighing a run. Incidentally, we ran the numbers, and MA-10 is the most Irish district in America, at 33%. (The rest of the top ten: PA-07, MA-09, PA-13, PA-08, MA-06, NY-01, MA-07, NY-03, and NJ-01.)
  • NY-29: Politico reports that former Corning Mayor Tom Reed is becoming the consensus choice for the Republican Party. Seven of eight county chairs in the district have backed Reed, and these are the guys who will pick a nominee if there’s a special election. Considering that Reed hadn’t raised very much, and that other big names are now weighing the race, this is a somewhat surprising development.
  • TX-23: Ex-CIA spook Will Hurd, in a runoff with richie rich Quico Canseco, picked up the endorsement of the third-place finisher, physician Robert Lowery, who scored 22% in the first round of the Republican primary. 2008 nominee Lyle Larson, who himself beat Quico in a primary, also threw his support to Hurd.
  • Consultants: The Hotline has a monster-sized searchable database of consultants – you can see which consultants worked for which campaigns, or vice-versa, in several different specialties (polling, mail, media, etc.). Very cool.
  • Number Crunching: Did you know that Microsoft Excel 2010 Beta is available as a free download? A list of key new features is here.
  • SSP Daily Digest: 5/29

    MO-Sen: Rep. Roy Blunt got some unwelcome news yesterday: he and his wife owe $6,820 in back taxes on their three-bedroom home in Georgetown, Washington D.C. assessed at $1.62 million. (The problem seems to be an improperly declared homestead exemption.) True to Republican form, the Blunt camp is blaming the government (more specifically, the D.C. government, for bungling the update of their homestead status).

    NV-Sen: The Nevada GOP may be closer to landing a credible candidate to go against Harry Reid. State Senator Mark Amodei of Carson City (who’s term-limited out in 2010) was unusually vocal on the senate floor in the session’s closing weeks. When pressed in a recent interview, he said that if Rep. Dean Heller didn’t run against Reid (which seems unlikely; Heller, if he moves up, is usually mentioned as a primary challenger to toxic Gov. Jim Gibbons), then he’d “consider” running.

    NY-Sen-B: Rep. Carolyn McCarthy endorsed Mayor-for-Life Michael Bloomberg for another term at the helm of New York City. As Daily Kos’s Steve wisely points out, this may be an indicator she’s not looking to run in the Dem primary; if she’s going to do so, she’d have to run to Kirsten Gillibrand’s left, but that would be a difficult case to make having just endorsed a Republican-turned-Independent for one of the state’s biggest jobs.

    AL-Gov: State Treasurer Kay Ivey announced that she’s joining the crowded field of GOP candidates for Governor (including college chancellor Bradley Byrne, who also announced this week, as the moderate option, and ex-judge Roy Moore as the nuclear option). Ivey, however, may suffer a bit from her role in the state’s messed-up prepaid college tuition plan.

    IA-Gov: State Rep. Chris Rants has been traveling the state gauging support for a run at the GOP gubernatorial nomination. Rants, from Sioux City in the state’s conservative west, served as majority leader and then speaker, but was replaced in leadership after the GOP lost the majority in 2006. Fellow Sioux City resident Bob Vander Plaats (the 2006 Lt. Gov. nominee) is expected to announce his candidacy soon as well.

    MN-Gov: Tim Pawlenty has deferred his decision on whether or not to run for re-election to a third term until later this summer. The decision may turn on who’s more pissed at him after he decides whether or not to certify Al Franken — the nationwide GOP base, or Minnesotans.

    OR-Gov: Former Gov. John Kitzhaber seems to be moving closer to a return to Salem, meeting with some of the state’s insiders about steps toward a comeback. Ex-SoS Bill Bradbury, who’s already in the running (and won’t stand down if Kitzhaber gets in), confirms that Kitzhaber is “looking very seriously” at the race. Kitzhaber seems to be looking forward to a “do-over” now that there’s a firmly Democratic legislature; he spent most of his two terms in the 90s playing defense against a GOP-held legislature.

    RI-Gov: Two of Rhode Island’s key Democrats are taking steps to run for the open Governor’s seat: AG Patrick Lynch and Lt. Gov. Elizabeth Roberts. Roberts is staffing up with top-tier campaign staff, while Lynch said that he has “every intention” of running for Governor during a radio interview. (Treasurer Frank Caprio is also mentioned as a likely candidate and is sitting on the most cash, but hasn’t done anything visible yet.) A Brown Univ. poll just released tested their approvals; Lynch was at 47/39 and Caprio at 41/24, while Roberts was in worse shape at 22/36. (A poll from March is the only test of the Dem primary so far, with Caprio leading with 30%, compared with 17 for Lynch, 12 for Roberts, and 13 for Providence mayor David Cicilline, who won’t be running.)

    FL-02: State Senate Minority Leader Al Lawson has been attempting to primary Rep. Allen Boyd from the left, but party power brokers are encouraging him to switch over to the race for state CFO, being vacated by Alex Sink. With Senate President Jeff Atwater already running for CFO for the GOP, this would pit the parties’ two Senate leaders against each other.

    IN-05: In this R+17 district, the primary’s where it’s at, and there’s a whole herd of Republicans chasing Rep. Dan Burton, perceived more as vulnerable more for his age and indifference than any ideological reason. State Rep. Mike Murphy just got into the race. He joins former state Rep. and former state party chair Luke Messer, John McGoff (who narrowly lost the 2006 primary against Burton), and Brose McVey (who ran against Julia Carson in IN-07 in 2002).

    NM-01: It’s looking there’ll be a contested GOP primary to see who gets flattened by freshman Rep. Martin Heinrich in this now D+5 district. Former state party vice-chair and former Albuquerque Hispano Chamber of Commerce president Jon Barela is about to form an exploratory committee. (Given this district’s 45% Latino population, Barela may be a stronger candidate for the general than funeral home director Kevin Daniels.)

    PA-06: Here’s a good tea leaf that Rep. Jim Gerlach is making behind-the-scenes notifications that he’s indeed bailing on his rapidly-bluening district. State Rep. Curt Schroder from rural Chester County (not to be confused with Oregon’s Kurt Schrader), always considered to be the next GOPer to have dibs on this seat, has organized a campaign committee. Dems have journalist Doug Pike running in this race, but someone with more firepower may jump in once Gerlach makes it official.

    PA-07: For a few hours there last night, it looked like we were facing real problems in PA-07, a D+3 seat with a good Republican bench that will open up if Rep. Joe Sestak follows through on his threatened primary challenge to Arlen Specter. Former E.D. Pa. US Attorney (and before that, Delaware County DA) Pat Meehan was reported to be mulling a switch from the Governor’s race, where he’s probably lagging AG Tom Corbett in the primary (no polls have been taken, so who knows?), over to PA-07, giving the GOP a top-tier recruit. However, Meehan acted quickly to tamp that down and reaffirm he’s running for Gov. TPM points to another potential GOPer, Steven Welch, founder of local pharma company Mitos Technologies; on the Dem side, as most everyone here knows, state Rep. Bryan Lentz is heir apparent.