NM-Gov: Denish Wallops Wilson, Pearce

Harstad Strategic Research for the DGA (5/31-6/4, likely voters):

Diane Denish (D): 57

Heather Wilson (R): 35

Undecided: 8

Diane Denish (D): 57

Steve Pearce (R): 35

Undecided: 8

(MoE: ±4%)

As far as we know, no one has polled the New Mexico governor’s race until now… or even paid much attention to the race. That’s because, with the current field, this open seat is looking like, if not a slam dunk, then at least a poorly contested lay-up for Team Blue. Not only is there New Mexico’s big shift to the left in the 2008 election, but also a huge disparity in recruitment. Lt. Gov. Diane Denish has been the long-time heir apparent for the Dems (although state Senate majority leader Michael Sanchez is looking at the race), while all the GOP has cobbled together is official candidate National Guard Brig. Gen. Greg Zanetti, along with two explorers: state Rep. Janice Arnold-Jones and Allen Weh, former state party chair best known for his supporting role in the U.S. Attorney scandal.

Still, the possibility has loomed in the distance that the GOP might field a higher-profile candidate: either one of the two former Reps., Heather Wilson or Steve Pearce, who basically destroyed each other en route to Tom Udall’s easy 2008 Senate victory. If this internal poll for the DGA is even remotely close to reality, then there’s not much of a race here even if Wilson or Pearce show up, as both of them lose 57-35. Denish even leads Wilson 53-40 in NM-01, Wilson’s base of operations for over a decade as she kept America safe from stray nipples. Pearce has also been weighing a run to get back his old seat in NM-02; if this poll is any indication, that’d be a better use of his time. (H/t Campaign Diaries.)

RaceTracker: NM-Gov

SSP Daily Digest: 6/2

UT-Sen: Democrats nailed down a candidate in dark-red Utah, not a likely place for a pickup but somewhere we want to be standing by to clean up in case the Republican primary turns into an insane bloodbath: Sam Granato, the head of the state Liquor Control Board.

Speaking of which, a third challenger just got into the GOP primary against long-time incumbent Bob Bennett: businesswoman and activist Cherilyn Eagar, who’s never run for office before but seems connected to some of the fringier members of Utah’s legislature, such as state Senator Margaret Dayton, who praised Eagar in that: “She’s a very impressive woman in her looks, intelligence and presentation.” Eagar’s rationale is that, in her words, “Utah’s conservative principles are no longer being represented in the U.S. Senate and no conservative has entered this race,” which seems bizarre considering that AG Mark Shurtleff and former Utah County GOP chair Tim Bridgewater are already challenging the very conservative Bennett from the right. Eagar also offered up this very strange mix of literary allusions: “Gulliver has been tied down by socialist gnomes for many years, but he’s starting to wake up.”

AZ-Gov: Arizona’s AG Terry Goddard is probably the Dems’ best chance to take back this seat, which just went to Republican ex-SoS Jan Brewer when Janet Napolitano vacated it (Brewer has not announced whether she’ll run for a full term). He recently stated that he “intends” to run for governor. (Arizona Republicans then tried to invoke Arizona’s resign-to-run law, which would require him to give up his AG job to become a governor’s candidate; so this weekend Goddard issued a lengthy explanation of why “intent” doesn’t make him a candidate.)

NM-Gov: Lt. Gov. Diane Denish has been considered Bill Richardson’s heir apparent in 2010, but it seems like she may not get a free ride on the way to the nomination. Senate Majority Leader Michael Sanchez, according to his Facebook page, has formed an exploratory committee. Denish has a $1.7 million headstart on fundraising, though.

MD-04: Rep. Donna Edwards, who won a surprise primary in 2008 against out-of-touch incumbent Al Wynn, but is facing some within-the-district misgivings from local Jewish leaders (apparently up to 15% of the active electorate in her district is Jewish). This turns mostly on her decision to vote ‘present’ on January’s resolution recognizing Israel’s right to defend itself and condemning Hamas. State Delegate Herman Taylor has been gauging support within the Jewish community for a primary challenge to Edwards. While this wouldn’t seem to be a dominant issue in this African-American-majority district, two successful primary challenges from the right in 2002 (Artur Davis over Earl Hilliard in AL-07 and Denise Majette over Cynthia McKinney in GA-04) focused largely on Israel policy.

MD-06: Rep. Roscoe Bartlett, who turns 83 tomorrow, is often the source of open seat speculation. However, today he announced that he’ll be back for another term in his R+13 district in Maryland’s rural west.

SC-04: As an occasionally sane Republican (who voted for the bailout and against the Surge) in an R+15 district that’s an evangelical hotbed, Rep. Bob Inglis seems vulnerable this year, as the revved-up base seems less and less tolerant of apostasy. State Sen. David Thomas announced he’s seriously thinking of challenging Inglis and will make his announcement within days; Solicitor (equivalent to DA) Trey Gowdy also just announced that he’s entering the race. They’ll join an already crowded field including businessmen Andrew Smart and Jim Lee and professor Christina Jeffrey. While Inglis looks poised to win against this fractured field, if he does it with less than 50%, he’s facing a one-on-one runoff.

Gay marriage: The New York Senate is the only remaining obstacle to gay marriage in New York, and now state Senator Thomas Duane, prime mover of the legislation, says he now has the votes to get it passed (without naming names). Meanwhile, it’s not full marriage, but Nevada is poised to adopt domestic partnership. Over the weekend, both chambers of the legislature just overrode Governor Jim Gibbons’ veto of previously passed domestic partnership legislation (there was doubt whether it could clear the Assembly, where it passed by a bare 28-14 margin).

Meta: Wow, that year went fast: it’s my one-year blogiversary on SSP’s front page. Thanks to David and James for taking an interest in my writing, and to all the readers and commenters as well.