[UPDATE] OK-Sen: Liveblog with Andrew Rice: 4:30pm Central

Andrew Rice, state senator from Oklahoma and Jim Inhofe’s sole opponent for U.S. Senate this year, will be on Daily Kos today at 4:30 pm Central (5:30 Eastern/2:30 Pacific) to liveblog about his US Senate race.  He’ll focus on the problems created by a combination of record gas prices and record oil company profits, but all questions will be welcome!

Check here at 4:30 Central today to speak with Sen. Rice:

http://senator-andrew-rice.dai…

Thanks –

Karina Henderson

Rice for US Senate

PS – If you want to find out more about Andrew, go to http://www.andrewforoklahoma.com.  And if you’d like to make a contribution now (so you’re not having to nav away from the liveblog later), how about donating to our “Turn Oklahoma Green” page on ActBlue?  Click here – http://www.actblue.com/page/tu…

UPDATE [4/30 @ 5:00pm Central]: Sen. Rice is liveblogging now – go to http://www.dailykos.com/story/…

Congressional races by state: WI, LA, MN

These are all states with filing deadlines in the first half of July

The numbers after each are a) Cook PVI and b) A rating of the district based on a model I created details here – basically a logistic model based on a lot of demographics; the number is the predicted probability of being Republican, based solely on the demographics (details here .  I also have a model that includes Cook PVI, but, well….I give you the Cook number too.

WI has 8 congressional districts. 5 Democrats and 3 Republicans

LA has 7  congressional districts. 2 Democrats and 5 Republicans

MN has 8 congressional districts. 5 Democrats and 3 Republicans

The districts held by Democrats are



                                     Confirmed

dist    Cook Prob Repub Incumbent     Challenger? rating

LA-02   D+28   .04      Jefferson       No        Safe for a Democrat,

                                                 primary possible

LA-03   R+5    .35      Melancon        No        Mostly safe

MN-01   R+1    .74      Walz            Yes       Somewhat vul

MN-04   D+13   .30      McCollum        Yes       Safe

MN-05   D+21   .22      Ellison         Yes       Safe

MN-07   R+6    .80      Peterson        No        Safe

MN-08   D+4    .80      Oberstar        No        Safe

WI-02   D+13   .65      Baldwin         Yes       Safe

WI-03   D+3    .81      Kind            No        Safe

WI-04   D+20   .12      Moore           No        Safe

WI-07   D+2    .79      Obey            No        Safe

WI-08   R+4    .73      Kagen           Yes       Somewhat vul



Those held by Republicans

LA-01 R+18  .50

If you picture LA as a boot, LA-01 is the top of the toes, bordering MS, lake Pontchartrain and the Gulf of Mexico.

Jindal, first elected in 2004, won election as governor and will be retiring.

Gilda Reed is the only confirmed Democratic challenger.

LA-04 R+7 .36

LA-04 is the western edge of LA, bordering TX and AR

McCrery, first elected in 1988, has won easily in LA’s odd ‘primary only’ system, far outraising his opponents; now, he will retire

There are no confirmed challengers, but lots of interested parties.

LA-05 R+10 .39

LA-05 is the northeast part of the ‘leg’ of the boot.

Alexander, first elected in 2002, was a Democrat, but switched to the Republicans (what? he doesn’t like being in the majority?) In the 2006 runoff he won easily

No confirmed opponent

LA-06 R+7 .33

LA-06 is Baton Rouge and surrounding areas

Baker, first elected in 1986, is retiring

The only confirmed candidate (of either party!) is Don Cazayoux .

LA-07 R+7  .39

LA-07 is the southwestern part of LA, bordering TX and the Gulf

Boustany, first elected in 2004, had a fairly close race then, but won easily in 2006 against an underfunded opponent

There are no confirmed opponents.

MN-02 R+3 .78

MN-02 is the area south of the twin cities

Kline, first elected in 2002, has had reasonably challenging races, never getting over 56%

The only confirmed challenger is Steve Sarvi

MN-03 R+1 .66

MN-03 is the northern and western (and some southern) suburbs of the twin cities.

Ramstad, first elected in 1990, might (or might not) be retiring.

There are a couple of confirmed challengers: Terri Bonoff and Jigar Madia

MN-06 R+5 .84

MN-06 is an odd shaped district that includes a blob in the middle of MN, and then extends east to the WI border and wraps around the twin cities

Bachmann, first elected in 2006, won 50-42 against Wetterling, even though Wetterling raised more money ($3.1 million to $2.6 million).

There are two confirmed challengers: Bob Olson and Elwyn Tinklenberg (no web site)

WI-01 R+2 .66

WI-01 is the southeastern corner of WI, bordering IL and Lake Michigan

Ryan, first elected in 1998, has won easily against underfunded opponents

There are two confirmed challengers: Marge Krupp and Paulette Garin

WI-05 R+12 .76

WI-05 is in eastern WI, it wraps around Milwaukee, and borders Lake Michigan

Sensensbrenner, first elected in 1978, has won easily even when his opponents raised some funds.  He might retire,

No confirmed challengers

WI-06 R+5 .76

WI-06 is central eastern WI, bordering Lake Michigan and running west to Marquette county

Petri, first elected in 1979, has not had  a close race since 1992, and often has no opposition.

This year, his challenger is Roger Kittleson (no web site)

Summary

LA – I don’t know what’s going on in LA-06

MN – MN-03 is a definite opportunity.  MN-02 might be

WI – Kagen is vulnerable – it’s a swing district and he’s had some controversy.  

Congressional races by state KS, NH, OK, RI, WA

These are all states with filing deadlines in June

The numbers after each are a) Cook PVI and b) A rating of the district based on a model I created details here – basically a logistic model based on a lot of demographics; the number is the predicted probability of being Republican, based solely on the demographics (details here .  I also have a model that includes Cook PVI, but, well….I give you the Cook number too.

KS has 4 congressional districts: 2 Democrats and 2 Republicans

NH has 2 congressional districts: Both  Democrats

OK has 5 congressional districts: 1 Democrats and 4 Republicans

RI has 2 congressional districts: Both  Democrats

WA has 9 congressional districts: 6 Democrats and 3 Republicans

The districts held by Democrats are



                                     Confirmed

dist    Cook Prob Repub Incumbent     Challenger? rating

KS-02    R+7    .64      Boyda          Yes          Vul

KS-03    R+4    .50      Moore          Yes          Mostly safe

NH-01    R+0    .78      Shea-Porter    Yes          Probably safe  

NH-02    D+3    .84      Hodes          Yes          Hard to say

OK-02    R+5    .25      Boren          No           Safe

RI-01    D+16   .38      Kennedy        No           Safe

RI-02    D+13   .51      Langevin       No           Safe

WA-01    D+7    .46      Inslee         Yes          Safe

WA-02    D+3    .61      Larsen         No           Safe

WA-03    D+0    .61      Baird          No           Safe

WA-06    D+6    .33      Dicks          No           Safe

WA-07    D+30   .15      McDermott      No           Safe

WA-09    D+6    .26      Smith          No           Safe

Those held by Republicans

KS-01 R+20 0.70

KS-01 is most of KS, except for the eastern and southeastern parts, bordering OK, CO, and NE

Moran, first elected in 1996, has won easily, often without a Democratic opponent. In 2006 he got 79% against John Doll, although Doll raised only $62,000.

This year, Doll might run again, but the only confirmed James Bordonaro (no web site yet)

KS-04 R+12 .48

KS-04 is in southern KS, towards the eastern part, bordering OK

Tiahrt first elected in 1994, has won easily against opponents with very little money

This year, he faces Donald Betts

OK-01 R+13 .24

OK-01 is an oddly shaped district in the northeastern part of OK; it includes Tulsa and a narrow strip north to the KS border, and then a wider section south of Tulsa

Sullivan, first elected in 2002, has gotten steadily larger shares of the vote

There is no confirmed challenger

OK-03 R+18 .50

OK-03 is the panhandle of OK and the northwestern part of the rest of the state, bordeing CO, TX, and KS.

Lucas, first elected in 1994, has mostly won easily against underfunded opponents

There is no confirmed challenger

OK-04 R+13 .40

OK-04 is the southwestern part of OK, bordering TX and including souther suburbs of Oklahoma City

Cole, first elected in 2002, won a close race in 2002 but has not had a well-funded challenger since then

There is no confirmed challenger

OK-05 R+12 .12

OK-05 is shaped more or less like a stair in central OK, including Oklahoma City

Fallin, first elected in 2006, won 60-37.

The confirmed challenger is Bert Smith

WA-04 R+13 .55

WA-04 is the center of the state including Yakima, and bordering OR

Hastings, first elected in 1994, has won reasonably easily even against opponents with some funding

The only confirmed challenger is George Fearing

WA-05 R+7 .50

WA-05 is the eastern part of the state, bordering Canada, OR, and ID

Rodgers, first elected in 2004, had a tough race in 2006, beating Peter Goldmark 56-44 and spending almost $2 million (Goldmark spent about $1.2 million

There is no confirmed challenger

WA-08 D+2  .59

WA-08 includes the eastern edge of Seattle and other land east of Lake Washington

Reichert, first elected in 2004, had a close race in 2006 against Darcy Burner.  

Burner is running again, and has a good chance

Summary:

Kansas – I’m worried about Boyda, although she beat Ryun last time.  

NH – Shea Porter won 51-49 against an incumbent, while raising less than $300,000 (her opponent, Jeb Bradley, had more than triple that).  She should win again

OK – looks like everyone is pretty safe

RI – both congressmen are safe

WA – Reichert is vulnerable

TX-Sen Rick Noriega Weekend Round Up-I Love Teh Google Edition

Google Alerts are da bomb.  They bring all sorts of interesting sites to my attn.  For example, this video comes via Blogging All Things Brownsville, a blog I didn’t know about that seems to be a great place to keep track of, well, All Things Brownsville…

Follow me below the fold for a couple of other interesting items the Google sent my way.

Just in case you were suffering from the impression that the tantrums coming of late from the Imperial Petulancy were on the level, you can rest easy.

The Junior Senator from Texas doesn’t seem to think that his one and only represented constituent, W, was seriously worried about Congress not getting anything done.  As Vince from Capitol Annex notes, he’s urging his fellow Republicans to bloviate more from the floor.

Oh, yeah, that’ll help move things along in the Senate.  Should ratchet things up to the speed of watching paint dry.

And, a final treat to close out this entry, the Walker Report has some fantastic pics from the doings in Eagle Pass where approx 200 statewide Dems got together.