Tag: Deeds

This is the second part of two posts analyzing Virginia’s 2009 gubernatorial election. The previous part can be found here.

When Democrats nominated State Senator Creigh Deeds, they nominated a rural, moderate Democrat designed to win the small towns and rural regions of western Virginia. In an ideal situation, Mr. Deeds would have carved out a coalition similar to former Governor Mark Warner’s.

In 2001, Mr. Warner won a 5.13% victory over Attorney General Mark Earley, based largely upon rural support in western Virginia.

Mr. Warner is famous among Democrats for this achievement (remember, this was just two months after 9/11). He went on to become a successful and very popular governor; in 2008, Mr. Warner ran for Senate and won double his opponent’s vote. Since Mr. Warner, no other Democratic candidate has ever built a coalition similar to his.

More below.

Below is Virginia’s political lean during the 2001 gubernatorial election:

These maps indicate the results of a hypothetically tied election, which is useful to determine the political lean of each county (i.e. whether a certain place voted more Democratic or Republican than the state as a whole). For example, last year Indiana voted for President Barack Obama – but relative to the country as a whole, it leaned Republican.

For comparison, here is the correlating map for Creigh Deeds (if Mr. Deeds had tied Mr. McDonnell), which I mapped in my last post:

As the maps indicate, Creigh Deeds failed miserably at recreating the rural Warner coalition. Despite being a rural candidate, Mr. Deeds did far worse in rural western Virginia.

Instead, Mr. Deeds appears to have done best in urban Virginia: Northern Virginia, Richmond, and the Norfolk-Virginia Beach metropolitan area. Rather than repeating Mark Warner’s coalition, the performance of Creigh Deeds appears far closer to that of President Barack Obama’s:

Mr. Obama won through a urban-suburban alliance, compared to the urban-rural alliance of Mr. Warner.

Here is Mr. Obama’s performance without the lean:

To be fair, I would prefer the Obama coalition to the Warner coalition: suburban strength is more lasting than votes built upon dying small towns.

Nevertheless, it is discomfiting to note the extent to which a candidate like Creigh Deeds – a rural, moderate Democrat who distanced himself from Mr. Obama – replicated the president’s performance. For better or for worse, it seems, Democratic candidates will from now on be attached hip-to-hip with Mr. Obama.

(Note: All statistics are derived from http://www.uselectionatlas.org/ ).

–Inoljt, http://mypolitikal.com/

This is the first part of two posts analyzing Virginia’s 2009 gubernatorial election. The second part can be found here.

A normal observer might see the above map and naturally conclude that the Democratic candidate lost a landslide election. This is not always the case. In the 1968 presidential election, for instance, the state of New York looked like this:

Although it does not look like it, Democratic candidate Hubert Humphrey won the state: 49.76% to 44.30%.

In November 2009, however, State Senator Creigh Deeds did in fact receive a thorough pummeling from Attorney General Bob McDonnell. An unappealing candidate running in a tough national climate, Mr. Deeds lost the race 41.25% to 58.61%.

More below.

Creigh Deeds only won two types of counties: his home district and Democratic strongholds. The former include the two blue counties along the state’s eastern border. The latter are populated by two Democratic constituencies: firstly, blacks in Virginia’s 3rd congressional district and secondly, wealthy suburbanites south of Washington (Virginia’s 8th congressional district).

Surprisingly (and disturbingly) Mr. Deeds lost Fairfax County, the key to recent Democratic success in Virginia. Rich, diverse, and heavily populated – Northern Virginia suburban voters were largely responsible for Democratic victories by Governor Tim Kaine, Senator Jim Webb and President Barack Obama.

Mr. McDonnell’s victory in Fairfax indicates one of two things. Either the Democratic Party has not entrenched itself in NoVa – or it is moving back to the Republicans. The latter possibility is highly worrisome and not simply confined to Virginia.

There is little more that the above map indicates – one cannot tell much from a map that just shows red counties. Differentiating the mass of red reveals more:

This image maps the results based on degree of support. It shows a substantial east-west divide hidden in the first map. Western Virginia voted Republican with far more intensity; eastern Virginia tended to be more moderate in its support of Mr. McDonnell.

Notice how intensely Republican the western panhandle is voting. These voters – poor, white, rural Appalachian folk – used to vote Democratic based on economic appeals. This trend subsisted even in fairly recent times: John Kerry won a couple counties; Senator Jim Webb took three. Former president Bill Clinton did even better (he lost the state by 1.96%):

Creigh Deeds, a moderate politician representing an Appalachian district, was supposed to appeal to the rural voters populating western Virginia; as the map makes evident, he failed to do so (outside his home districts). I suspect Barack Obama  may have something to do with this; his poor performance amongst Appalachian voters may be affecting Democratic candidates everywhere. Given the many Democratic politicians elected from Appalachia, this – if true – would definitely be a bad thing for Democrats.

Finally, it is possible to map the results if Mr. Deeds had tied Mr. McDonnell:

This indicates the relative Democratic or Republican lean of each county – a county may vote Republican but still lean Democratic compared to the overall result, and vice versa. Massachusetts, for example, voted Republican in Ronald Reagan’s 1984 landslide – but nobody would accuse it of being a Republican state. It went red, but relative to the rest of the nation was more Democratic.

The next section will compare this map with similar images derived from previous Democratic coalitions.

(Note: All statistics are derived from http://www.uselectionatlas.org/).

–Inoljt, http://mypolitikal.com/

Another poll on the race for Virginia Governor shows Republican Bob McDonnell keeping his wide lead over Deeds, defeating him 54%-39% with likely voters, and 47%-40% with registered voters overall. The poll’s MOE is 3%. McDonnell’s wide lead is thanks in large part to independents and moderates.

The only real branch of hope that Deeds can grab onto in this poll is that only 48% of voters polled are certain to vote for either McDonnell or Deeds.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/…

Creigh Deeds’s landslide in the Virginia Gubernatorial Primary on June 9th was shocking to pundits like me. This race was supposed to be a three way nail biter fought by Terry McAuliffe’s money and his big name supporters; Brian Moran who had Northern Virginia roots and Creigh Deeds carrying rural Virginia. Instead, Deeds won everywhere except in a few Hampton Roads independent cities and Alexandria. What happened in this race echoes the 1988 Democratic presidential primary: All the major candidates attacked Rep. Richard Gephardt (D, MO) leaving room for Dukakis to win. Moran attacked McAuliffe and McAuliffe attacked Moran allowing Creigh Deeds to sneak into Northern Virginia and win. Deeds must now beat Republican Bob McDonnell, the conservative Attorney General of Virginia.  It will be a rematch because in 2005, Deeds lost to McDonnell by 360 votes for Attorney General in 2005 out of the 1.9 million cast. Yes, the 2005 election looks like Florida in 2000 but it was more gracious than that. I will explain how Deeds can develop a winning strategy in light of his strengths and weaknesses.

Creigh Deeds was the most Conservative Democrat running in the Gubernatorial Primary. Even though he is pro-choice, he is also pro-gun and the NRA endorsed him in 2005. He will probably get it again. The NRA endorsement helped him in rural areas but not in Northern Virginia. Still, it would be hard to believe that a pro gun control voter in Northern Virginia would support the very conservative McDonnell over Deeds. Since Tim Kaine, the Democratic Governor of Virginia won big in Northern Virginia in 2005, the Democratic voters came out in big numbers and Deeds will need that type of turn out once again. I believe he will do that because of backlash to McDonnell’s record and because of the type of showing Deeds showed in the primary. . He also ran strong in rural areas especially in his home House of Delegates district. Against McDonnell, he won Alleghany County in his home district with 75% of the vote. Even McCain won that county against Obama. Deeds’s district is located near the Shenandoah Valley and borders West Virginia. To win rural areas, Deeds must portray himself as a candidate who stands for rural issues as he showed in the primary. Another trouble spot for Deeds is the Hampton Roads area. . Bob McDonnell, a Virginia Beach resident won it by 15 points when John McCain barely won it against Obama. The only congressional district Deeds lost in the primary was an African American majority district that contained some Hampton Roads cities. Since the Hampton Roads area provided McDonnell with the margin he needed to become Attorney General. Hampton Roads has a large military population. Deeds can pull the race close if he can tout his Veterans record. Deeds wants tax relief for disabled Veterans and is a fan of Virginia’s Wounded Warrior Program. If he fails to make inroads there, he could try to win Loudon and Prince William Counties. They surround Fairfax County and since 2001, they almost always vote for the winner.  If Deeds can paint McDonnell as an extreme religious right candidate, Deeds can win in Northern Virginia. Deeds has one problem in Northern Virginia: He is tough on illegal immigration which would help in Conservative areas but would hurt him among Hispanic voters in Northern Virginia. If Deeds can hold the voters he won in 2005, he can win because more D.C Liberals have moved into Virginia since 2005, making it easier for Deeds to win to pick up the additional votes. A recent state wide poll showed Deeds leading by six points. Was this just a post primary bounce or a harbinger for this election?

Bob McDonnell is a candidate with contrasts. Unlike Deeds, McDonnell is not a Virginia native. Even though Deeds will try hard to win Hampton Roads, McDonnell had military service while Deeds did not. Also, McDonnell’s home area is home to many evangelicals and McDonnell has close ties to Pat Robertson and that voting block. Those ties probably helped McDonnell enough in rural areas to enable him win against Deeds in 2005. Yet, those ties will hurt McDonnell in Northern Virginia where the population is generally averse to the Southern Virginia Religious Conservatives. Northern Virginia voted against then Sen. George Allen in 2006, against Jerry Kilgore who was the Republican Gubernatorial nominee in 2005. McDonnell needs to keep those ties to Pat Robertson to compete for votes in rural areas but also needs to shed them to compete in Northern Virginia. If Deeds wants to win, he needs to run ads in Northern Virginia highlighting McDonnell’s ties to Pat Robertson.

These are the main strengths, strategies and weaknesses of each candidate. Here is the winning strategy for Deeds: rack up large margins in Northern Virginia by campaigning there and running ads portraying Bob McDonnell as a religious Conservative with ties to Pat Robertson. Try to at least reduce the margins in Hampton Roads by spending time there and running ads promoting Deeds’s record on Veterans. In the rural areas, Deeds needs to run ads referring to him as “just another hardworking Virginian” and highlight his record on guns. If the NRA endorses him, he needs to run ads with their endorsement. Even though Loudon and Prince William Counties are considered the important key, I believe the key area is rural Virginia. The real bellwether county appears to be suburban Henrico County near Richmond. It has many Conservatives and African Americans. So on election night, watch not only Loudon and Prince William Counties but also Henrico County. Deeds should win the bellwether counties if he sticks to his strategy. The most important tactic he must use is just to well….be himself. He has a lovely family and a great personality. If Virginians can see that combined with his positions and record compared to McDonnell’s, they will probably vote for him.