DE-AL: We Can Bank On At Least One Pickup Next Year

Public Policy Polling (pdf) (11/30-12/2, registered voters):

John Carney (D): 47

Fred Cullis (R): 24

Undecided: 29

John Carney (D): 44

Charlie Copeland (R): 32

Undecided: 24

(MoE: ±4.1%)

With lots of ominous numbers in the polls for Democrats these days, here’s a ray of sunshine: the GOP’s decision to take a gamble on a Senate pickup by running Mike Castle all but assures them of losing his House seat. Former Lt. Governor (and loser of the 2008 gubernatorial primary) John Carney is poised to  pick this one up. He almost doubles-up on the only announced candidate, never-before-elected businessman Fred Cullis, and has a double-digit lead over the GOP’s best shot at holding the seat, former state Sen. and former Lt. Governor candidate Charlie Copeland. (In the only other poll of this race, R2K had Carney beating Copeland 44-21 in October.)

As one might expect, everyone here, even Carney, is pretty much unknown: Carney is at 27/18 favorables, while Copeland is at 15/19 and Cullis is basically Generic R at this point, which is good for 3/10. PPP points out in a separate release that 24% of Delawareans have a positive impression of congressional Republicans (not coincidentally, the same number who are voting for Cullis), which shows us what we’re up against in terms of Castle’s personal appeal and his ability to transcend his party’s brand in his home state. Delaware pols not up for election in 2010 are in fine shape: Gov. Jack Markell is at 40/31 faves, and Sen. Tom Carper’s at 44/31.

RaceTracker Wiki: DE-AL

DE-Sen, DE-AL: Castle Over Biden By Only 1; Carney Crushes

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (10/12-14, likely voters).

DE-Sen:

Beau Biden (D): 45

Mike Castle (R): 46

Undecided: 9

Ted Kaufman (D): 37

Mike Castle (R): 51

Undecided: 12

John Carney (D): 41

Mike Castle (R): 49

Undecided: 10

Chris Coons (D): 39

Mike Castle (R): 51

Undecided: 10

(MoE: ±4%)

DE-AL:

John Carney (D): 44

Charlie Copeland (R): 21

Undecided: 35

John Carney (D): 45

Greg Lavelle (R): 18

Undecided: 37

(MoE: ±4%)

Conventional wisdom among legacy media pundits, once Rep. Mike Castle somewhat unexpectedly got into the Senate race, was that the race had suddenly shot past tossup status into Republican leaning territory. Today’s first R2K poll of the race should dispel that notion: AG Beau Biden is fully competitive with Castle, trailing him by only 1, and matching the popular Castle on favorables (65/29 for Biden, 64/30 for Castle). And that’s before any gloves have come off (for instance, the DSCC bringing its weight, and the presence of a certain vice-presidential dad, to bear). If there’s any doubt, consider the case of Bill Roth‘s 2000 election, as an indication of what happens when popular but tired and aging Delaware icons who’ve never really been tested, and who’ve slowly gotten out of touch with a gradually bluening state, run up against a vigorous opponent.

There’s one question remaining, though: is Biden actually going to run? Having recently returned from Iraq, Biden hasn’t said much on the matter yet, leaving some worried that the entry of Castle into the race might deter him. In the event that he doesn’t, R2K polled some other possibilities (including caretaker Sen. Ted Kaufman staying on, former Lt. Gov. (and 2008 gubernatorial primary loser) John Carney switching from the House race, or New Castle County Exec Chris Coons getting in), and the results aren’t as good. There’s some good news on that front today, though: Biden is “absolutely” considering running for the Senate, according to ABC News. Biden will be making the decision “in due course,” after the requisite family conference.

R2K also looks at the House race in the wake of Castle’s vacating the seat, which is quickly shaping up to be one of the Dems’ likeliest pickups in 2010. With the Democratic establishment firmly behind Carney, the GOP is just starting to cast its net. The top target is probably former state Sen. and former Lt. Gov. candidate Charlie Copeland, but other possibilities include state Reps. Tom Kovach and Greg Lavelle, businessmen Robert Harra and Anthony Wedo, and possibly former US Attorney Colm Connolly. In the end, which Republican takes the plunge may not matter much, as R2K finds Carney doubling-up on either Copeland or Lavelle.

RaceTracker: DE-Sen | DE-AL

SSP Daily Digest: 8/4

DE-Sen: Rep. Mike Castle yesterday told a radio interviewer that he’d decide “in the next month or so” what, if anything, he’s going to run for. One possible hint, though, is that he said that there are some “good young elected officials in the state who possibly could run on a statewide basis and should be looked at,” and he specifically named some state legislators like state sen. Charlie Copeland and state Reps. Tom Kovach and Greg Lavelle.

FL-Sen: Here’s another sign of trouble looming in the GOP primary for Charlie Crist, at least within the activist base, hot on the heels of his big loss in the Pasco County straw poll. The Volusia County GOP actually voted to censure him, over a list of grievances including his moderate judicial appointments, support of the Obama stimulus, and lack of support for Tom Feeney and Ric Keller last year. (Volusia Co.’s main city is Daytona Beach and population is over 400,000, so this isn’t one of those little Dixiecrat panhandle counties, either.)

IL-Sen: Rep. Mark Kirk downplayed the story of his Tweeting while on active military duty (as a Naval Reservist) at a news conference yesterday, but apologized for having done so.

NH-Sen: Skepticism behind-the-scenes seems to be growing in New Hampshire, especially among conservative activists, about the ordination of Kelly Ayotte as Senate candidate, handed down from on high from the Beltway. Various on- and off-the-record insiders are unsure of her political leanings, ‘meh’ about her speaking style, and worried that she’s never had to raise funds before. A lot of this agitation has been coming from the state’s largest paper, the Manchester Union-Leader, which has a notably hard-right editorial page and has been fannish of likely primary opponent Ovide Lamontagne in the past.

MN-Gov: This seemed to slip through the cracks last week, but Minneapolis mayor R.T. Rybak is sounding more like a candidate now. While giving a stump-ish speech to local Democrats, Rybak said that he’s “very likely” to enter the open seat gubernatorial race.

NJ-Gov (pdf): In another indication that things are getting worse, not better, for Jon Corzine, the new poll from Monmouth shows him trailing Chris Christie by 14 points among likely voters, 50-36, with 4% to independent Chris Daggett. This is particularly troublesome because Monmouth has been the pollster most favorable to Corzine; he trailed by only 8 in the July poll. Interestingly, though, Corzine trails by only 4 (43-39) among registered voters, a narrower gap than in July — suggesting that his only hope is getting a lot of unlikely voters to turn out. Democrats countered with their own internal poll (pdf) today, showing Corzine down by “only” 7, 42-35-6.

TX-Gov: You may recall that the Kay Bailey Hutchison campaign decided to pull the hidden phrase “rick perry gay” from its website’s code, but left a bunch of other hidden phrases (in the code, not meta-tags). That’s a big-time search-engine optimization party foul, though, and it led to Google and Yahoo pulling the website from their search indexes this weekend.

CA-10: State Senator Mark DeSaulnier may have lost one of his most potent weapons: the State Department asked him to stop using the endorsement of his predecessor (and current Undersecretary of State for arms control) Ellen Tauscher. It’s not illegal, but they want to avoid any ethical impropriety. The primary special election is Sept. 1.

FL-24: Rep. Suzanne Kosmas may find herself up against a celebrity candidate next year: former Notre Dame football coach Lou Holtz, who now lives in the Orlando area. Holtz has been in contact with the NRCC about the race, and certainly brings name recognition, but comes with a couple drawbacks: one, he’s 72 years old, ancient for a House freshman, and two, he raised some eyebrows last year after having to apologize for calling Hitler a great leader.

LA-02: Kudos to Rep. Joseph Cao for having the courage to say out loud what we’re all thinking: “I know that voting against the health care bill will probably be the death of my political career.” Strange to give that sort of ammunition to potential opponents when it’s clear from his fundraising that he’s intending to run again.

LA-03: Scott Angelle, natural resources secretary under both Kathleen Blanco and Bobby Jindal and former Democratic St. Martin parish president, is maintaining his interest in the possibly-vacant LA-03 seat. However, rumor has it that he may run for the seat as a Republican, and he did go on the record saying he’d “consider” swapping party labels (which are especially porous in Louisiana). State Rep. Nickie Monica says he’s in the race (as a Republican) regardless of whether or not Charlie Melancon pulls the trigger on a Senate run. One other Democrat not mentioned before who’s considering the race is 27-year-old New Orleans corporate lawyer Ravi Sangisetty, who grew up in Houma.

MD-01: State Sen. Andy Harris is taking steps to solve one of the two problems that hampered him in last year’s election against Rep. Frank Kratovil: he’s coming to the Eastern Shore. He isn’t moving, but he will be working part-time (he’s a mild-mannered anesthesiologist by day) at the hospital in Salisbury, in order to bolster his Eastern Shore cred. It’ll be a little harder to paper over his other problem, which is that he’s a Club for Growth wacko. Harris was just named one of the NRCC’s Young Guns, despite the fact that he might still face a primary against less conservative and Eastern Shore-based state Sen. E.J. Pipkin, who seems like he’d pick up most of the votes that went for Wayne Gilchrest in the 2008 primary (although Pipkin may be looking at running for state Comptroller instead).

NY-23: Despite interest from some colorful-sounding “activists,” it looks like the Conservative Party line in the upcoming special election is likely to go to a more establishment figure, accountant Doug Hoffman, who you may recall was one of the Republican wannabes not selected by the party apparatus. Hoffman attacked the hypothetical Democratic nominee and GOP nominee Dede Scozzafava as “Mr. Bad or Mrs. Worse.”

MO-03: Rep. Russ Carnahan doesn’t usually draw more than a passing glance from the GOP in his D+7 district, but it looks like he’ll have a somewhat credible opponent in 2010. Ed Martin opened an exploratory committee for the race; he hasn’t been elected before, but has consummate insider credentials as Gov. Matt Blunt’s chief of staff for four years.

RI-02: In an almost-one-party state like Rhode Island, primary challenges are a routine part of life. Rep. Jim Langevin fought off a primary challenge from professor Jennifer Lawless in 2006; in 2010, he’ll likely face state Rep. Elizabeth Dennigan (who had been planning to run for Lt. Governor, but had to drop that plan when incumbent Elizabeth Roberts decided to run for re-election instead of Governor). Although abortion was the flashpoint in 2006 (Langevin is pro-life), Dennigan says she won’t make much of an issue of it.

TX-23: Pete Sessions is probably pounding his head on his desk right now. After getting self-funder Quico Canseco to come back for a clear shot at Rep. Ciro Rodriguez in the 23rd, Bexar Co. Commissioner Lyle Larson, who upset Canseco in the GOP primary in 2008, is saying he’s thinking of coming back for another try — potentially setting up another self-destructive primary.

WI-03: Rep. Ron Kind is facing a real opponent for the first time in a while. State Sen. Dan Kapanke, who’s been acting candidate-ish for a long time, made it official yesterday that he’ll challenge the 14-year incumbent in 2010.

OH-SoS: With Jennifer Brunner giving up her job to run in the Senate primary, the Secretary of State open seat race is turning into one of Ohio’s hottest tickets. While Democratic Franklin Co. Commissioner Marilyn Brown is in the race, she is trailing GOP state Sen. Jon Husted (who has $1.3 million) by about a 10-to-1 ratio for cash-on-hand. Now a second Democrat, state Rep. Jennifer Garrison from Marietta in the state’s southeast, is getting into the race. It’s a key race, as the SoS is one of the votes on the 5-member state legislative apportionment board, which Dems currently control 3-2, and which they’ll need to hold if they’re going to undo Republican-favorable gerrymanders in the state legislature.