SSP Daily Digest 1/17

FL-Sen: State sen. President Mike Haridopolos already has a key endorser in his column for the likely-to-be-hotly-contested GOP Senate primary: former state party chair John Thrasher. Of course, Thrasher (the former state Sen. president, and who also just got appointed Rules Comm. chair by Haridopolos) and Haridopolos are tight from the state Senate, so it may not be a big surprise. Meanwhile, it seems like the Republican field may have its own Jeff Greene-type candidate, i.e. some guy with a lot of money and a senatorial itch to scratch but no credible reason to run for office: Nicholas Loeb. Loeb, who’s 35, is the great-grandson of one of the original Lehman Brothers and the son of a Ronald Reagan’s ambassador to Denmark, once ran briefly for a Florida state Senate seat but dropped out amidst a divorce from his wife. Loeb may currently be best-known as boyfriend to TV star Sofia Vergara.

IN-Sen: Richard Lugar is saying he’s preparing (in the form of ramped-up fundraising operations) for what, at this point, is the inevitable: a challenge from the right. Nevertheless, despite his imminent teabagging, he’s doubling-down on his reasonableness, this time with statements in favor of restoring the ban on assault weapons. And here’s an ironic blast from the past that really puts the increase in partisanship by Senate Republicans over the years into perspective: in 1977, as a freshman, Richard Lugar was deemed by CQ as having the highest party unity score of any Republican. At this point, only five GOPers are less loyal.

MA-Sen: Democrats seem to have their first “real” candidate announcing his presence in the Senate race, although I haven’t heard his name before and have to wonder whether he’ll turn into a credible presence here. Bob Massie was the 1994 candidate for Lt. Governor, but he’s better known for his entrepreneurial work, which includes investing in a fair amount of socially conscious stuff. He also has quite the interesting resume: Episcopal priest with a Harvard Business Ph.D who also happens to be one of the longest-surviving HIV patients ever.

MO-Sen: There’s one potentially interesting story for the Missouri Senate race that comes out of Friday’s RNC chair election (won by Wisconsin’s Reince Priebus): one of the losers was Ann Wagner, who had initially expressed some interest in running for Senate but then threw her hat in the RNC ring. Her loss frees her up to think about the Senate again, although there’s no comment from her camp on that beyond “Stay tuned.”

ND-Sen: PSC Commissioner Brian Kalk’s early start on seeking the GOP nomination in North Dakota seems to have just had the effect of painting a big target on his back. State House majority leader Al Carlson (whom I haven’t seen mentioned as a candidate before, and may be kneecapping Kalk on someone else’s behalf) says Kalk’s attempts to scare everybody else off won’t work. Gary Emineth, the former state GOP chair, also seems unimpressed, even floating his own name for the race.

PA-Sen: On Friday we mentioned that Mark Schweiker’s decision to become a lobbyist betrayed a pretty clear intent not to run for Senate, and over the weekend Schweiker confirmed that he’s not looking at the race. The Republican ex-Gov says the race “was never in the cards.”

TX-Sen: Two more heavyweights definitely seem moving toward the GOP gubernatorial battle. Dallas mayor Tom Leppert confirmed what everyone has expected for the last week: that he won’t run for a second term (while he didn’t specifically say he’d run for Sen., this certainly points that way). Leppert, who seems to occupy the most moderate position in the field, would have a good shot at following the Rick Snyder/Bill Haslam path against a field chock full o’ nuts if there weren’t the little matter of Texas having runoffs, which would force him into a one-on-one with a fire-breather. Speaking of which, Railroad Commissioner Michael Williams has now confirmed that he’ll run, and he’s resigning from his state post in order to campaign full-time for Senate. The other, less tea-flavored Williams — Roger Williams, the former SoS who’s also a big-name car dealer and the self-proclaimed big business candidate in the race — has already nailed down a name-brand endorser (although not one likely to help him much with today’s flavor of conservatives, especially given how useful his endorsement of Kay Bailey Hutchison was in the 2010 gubernatorial primary): George H.W. Bush.

Meanwhile, here’s a strange possibility: septuagenarian goldbug Ron Paul may actually be interested in making the race (and thus joining his son in the Senate). At least he’s polling visitors to RonPaul.com on whether he should run. (Um, maybe someone should familiarize him with the concept of self-selection bias?) And finally, here’s a list of the recently-declared no-thankses: state Senator Florence Shapiro on the GOP side, and state Sen. Leticia Van de Putte and Harris County Sheriff Adrian Garcia on the Dem side.

WY-Sen: Back when we did our Teabagger Cattle Call last month, we easily stipulated that John Barrasso, one of the most conservative members of the Senate, was the least likely incumbent up in 2012 to get teabagged. Nevertheless, buried in this article on Sal Russo’s plans for the Tea Party Express, is an astonishing line that, if true, is indicative of just how mindless the orgy of uncritical own-eating has become on the GOP’s far-right:

Democrats still control the Senate and White House, he noted in an interview from Wyoming, where he was visiting potential Senate candidates for 2012.

(H/t to Brian Valco for the catch.)

ME-Gov: Paul LePage seems to fancy himself a Chris Christie-type in the making, figuring he might survive his blue-leaning state by endearing himself to independents through a lot of everyman-style blustering and sacred cow-punching. He seems to have gotten off to a complete fail of a start, though, with Friday’s comments telling the NAACP to “kiss my ass” in response to questions about why he wasn’t attending any Martin Luther King Day celebrations. Rather than trying to own that, though, LePage seems to have already backed down, slinking unannounced into Waterville’s MLK Day breakfast after all.

MS-Gov: If you’ve ever wanted to see teabagging in its purest, most undistilled form, look no further than the just-announced candidacy of state revenue department “employee” James Broadwater for the GOP gubernatorial primary. His two main action items: eliminating all taxes other than sales tax, and using the state National Guard to enforce immigration laws.

NY-Gov: Siena has a new poll of New York state out that shows the state’s famously cantankerous residents’ views about nearly everything improving, whether it be the President, the legislature, or race relations. The most eye-popping numbers are those of new Gov. Andrew Cuomo, still in the honeymoon period but for now with a deity-like 70/17 approval.

MO-05: With the likelihood that the 5th will have to take on more Republican voters in the face of Missouri losing one of its nine House seats (since Kansas City is surrounded by red exurbs and rural counties in each direction, there’s really no other way to play it), it’s sounding like Emanuel Cleaver might face a stronger challenge than he’s used to in 2012. Republican former state Sen. Bill Kenney is scoping out the race, assuming that the currently D+10 district will become somewhat less solidly-Dem than before. (Recall that Cleaver’s 2010 victory, against little-known Jacob Turk, was a pretty unconvincing 53-42, although that was against a backdrop of statewide destruction for the Dems.)

NC-08: Here’s a pretty clear sign that Robin Hayes (the Republican holder of this seat until 2008, and a rumored rematch in the early part of the 2010 cycle) won’t be running in a potentially-friendlier (thanks to GOP-controlled redistricting) 8th in 2012. He’s taking over as head of the North Carolina state GOP organization.

KY-AG: In his bid for re-election, Democratic AG Jack Conway seems to have dodged his most compelling remaining Republican opponent. Former state Supreme Court Chief Justice Joseph Lambert decided not to run against Conway after not being able to secure a leave of absence from the state’s senior judge program (which lets him sit in as a temp judge when needed). With Trey Grayson already backing up his moving van to leave the state, that leaves Hopkins County state attorney Todd P’Pool as the only logical GOP candidate left.

TX-LG: With David Dewhurst about to move on from his long stint as the state’s #2, a couple other statewide Republicans are already jostling for that position: Land Commissioner Jerry Patterson and Comptroller Susan Combs. (Note that the LG election is in 2014, though, so if Dewhurst wins the 2012 Senate race there will be an appointee already filling that slot who’d have an incumbency advantage… and if Dewhurst loses, he may decide to keep on being LG on to infinity.)

Mayors: Columbus mayor Michael Coleman, up for re-election in November, already knows who his Republican opponent will be (as apparently the nominee gets picked by the county’s central committee, rather than by primary). He’ll face Earl Smith, a familiar face to voters from his former job as the police department’s spokesman.

Monday Poll Dump

Get ready for the mother of all poll dumps:

AK-Sen, Gov PPP:  Joe Miller (R) 37%, Scott McAdams (D) 30%, Lisa Murkowski (WI) 30%; Sean Parnell (R-inc) 54%, Ethan Berkowitz (D) 43%

AR-Gov Rasmussen: Mike Beebe (D-inc) 60%, Jim Keet (R) 38%

AR-Sen Rasmussen: John Boozman (R) 55%, Blanche Lincoln (D-inc) 36%

AZ-Gov Rasmussen: Jan Brewer (R-inc) 53%, Terry Goddard (D) 39%

CA-Sen, Gov PPP: Barbara Boxer (D-inc) 50%, Carly Fiorina (R) 46%; Jerry Brown (D) 51%, Meg Whitman (R) 46%

CA-Sen, Gov SurveyUSA: Barbara Boxer (D-inc) 46%, Carly Fiorina (R) 38%; Jerry Brown (D) 48%, Meg Whitman (D) 37%

CA-Sen, Gov YouGov: Barbara Boxer (D-inc) 49%, Carly Fiorina (R) 45%; Jerry Brown (D) 51%, Meg Whitman (D) 41%

CO-Sen Marist: Ken Buck (R) 49%, Michael Bennet (D-inc) 45%

CO-Sen, Gov PPP: Ken Buck (R) 49%, Michael Bennet (D-inc) 48%; John Hickenlooper (D) 48%, Tom Tancredo (C) 43%, Dan Maes (R) 8%

CO-Sen, Gov YouGov: Michael Bennet (D-inc) 49%, Ken Buck (R) 48%; John Hickenlooper (D) 47%, Tom Tancredo (C) 40%, Dan Maes (R) 9%

CT-Sen, Gov PPP: Richard Blumenthal (D) 54%, Linda McMahon (R) 43%; Tom Foley (R) 49%, Dan Malloy (D) 47%

CT-Sen, Gov Qpac: Richard Blumenthal (D) 53%, Linda McMahon (R) 44%; Tom Foley (R) 48%, Dan Malloy (D) 45%

CT-Sen Rasmussen: Richard Blumenthal (D) 53%, Linda McMahon (R) 46%

CT-Gov Rasmussen : Tom Foley (D) 48%, Dan Malloy (R) 46%

CT-Sen, Gov YouGov: Richard Blumenthal (D) 52%, Linda McMahon (R) 43%; Dan Malloy (D) 48%, Tom Foley (R) 44%

FL-Gov, Sen PPP: Alex Sink (D) 48%, Rick Scott (R) 47%; Marco Rubio (R) 47%, Charlie Crist (I) 30%, Kendrick Meek (D) 21%

FL-Gov, Sen Quinnipiac: Alex Sink (D) 44%, Rick Scott (R) 43%; Marco Rubio (R) 45%, Charlie Crist (I) 31%, Kendrick Meek (D) 18%

FL-Sen Rasmussen: Marco Rubio (R) 50%, Charlie Crist (I) 30%, Kendrick Meek (D) 16%

FL-Gov, Sen Susquehanna for Sunshine St. News: Alex Sink (D) 49%, Rick Scott (R) 46%; Marco Rubio (R) 48%, Charlie Crist (I) 31%, Kendrick Meek (D) 20%

FL-Gov Univ. of S. Florida for NYT: Rick Scott (R) 44%, Alex Sink (D) 39%

FL-Gov, Sen YouGov: Alex Sink (D) 45%, Rick Scott (R) 45%; Marco Rubio (R) 46%, Charlie Crist (I) 34%, Kendrick Meek (D) 15%

GA-Gov Mason-Dixon: Nathan Deal (R) 47%, Roy Barnes (D) 40%, John Monds (L) 6%

IA-Sen, Gov Selzer for Des Moines Register: Terry Branstad (R) 50%, Chet Culver (D-inc) 38%; Charles Grassley (R) 61%, Roxanne Conlin (D) 30%

IL-Sen Anzalone-Liszt for DSCC: Alexi Giannoulias (D) 39%, Mark Kirk (R) 37%

IL-Sen, Gov PPP: Mark Kirk (R) 46%, Alexi Giannoulias (D) 42%; Bill Brady (R) 45%, Pat Quinn (D-inc) 40%

IL-Sen, Gov YouGov: Alexi Giannoulias (D) 47%, Mark Kirk (R) 44%; Bill Brady (R) 47%, Pat Quinn (D-inc) 40%

KY-Sen PPP: Rand Paul (R) 55%, Jack Conway (D) 40%

KY-Sen YouGov: Rand Paul (R) 52%, Jack Conway (D) 44%

MA-Gov WNEC: Deval Patrick (D-inc) 42%, Charlie Baker (R) 37%, Tim Cahill (I) 11%

ME-Gov MPRC for Down East: Paul LePage (R) 39%, Eliot Cutler (I) 29%, Libby Mitchell (D) 24%

ME-01 Critical Insights for Maine Today Media: Dean Scontras (R) 45%, Chellie Pingree (D-inc) 41%

MN-Gov PPP: Mark Dayton (D) 43%, Tom Emmer (R) 40%, Tom Horner (I) 15%

MO-Sen YouGov: Roy Blunt (R) 54%, Robin Carnahan (D) 42%

NH-Sen, Gov PPP: Kelly Ayotte (R) 56%, Paul Hodes (D) 41%; John Lynch (D-inc) 53%, John Stephen (R) 44%

NH-Gov Rasmussen: John Lynch (D-inc) 51%, John Stephen (R) 45%

NH-01, 02 UNH: Frank Guinta (R) 46%, Carol Shea-Porter (D-inc) 39%; Ann McLane Kuster (D) 43%, Charlie Bass (R) 40%

NM-Gov ABQ Journal: Susana Martinez (R) 52%, Diane Denish (D) 42%

NV-Gov Mason-Dixon: Brian Sandoval (R) 56%, Rory Reid (D) 35%

NV-03 Mason Dixon: Joe Heck (R) 53%, Dina Titus (D-inc) 43%

NV-Sen, Gov PPP: Sharron Angle (R) 47%, Harry Reid (D-inc) 46%, Scott Ashjian (T) 3%; Brian Sandoval (R) 55%, Rory Reid (D) 44%

NV-Sen, Gov YouGov: Sharron Angle (R) 49%, Harry Reid (D-inc) 47%; Brian Sandoval (R) 56%, Rory Reid (D) 40%

NY-Sen, Sen-B, Gov Siena: Andrew Cuomo (D) 58%, Carl Paladino (R) 33%; Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc) 57%, Joe DioGuardi (R) 37%; Charles Schumer (D-inc) 64%, Jay Townsend (R) 32%

NY-Sen, Sen-B, Gov SurveyUSA: Andrew Cuomo (D) 55%, Carl Paladino (R) 33%; Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc) 56%, Joe DioGuardi (R) 36%; Charles Schumer (D-inc) 62%, Jay Townsend (R) 32%

NY-Sen, Sen-B, Gov YouGov: Andrew Cuomo (D) 56%, Carl Paladino (R) 29%; Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc) 58%, Joe DioGuardi (R) 34%; Charles Schumer (D-inc) 60%, Jay Townsend (R) 34%

OH-Sen, Gov Columbus Dispatch (mail-in): John Kasich (R) 49%, Ted Strickland (D-inc) 47%; Rob Portman (R)56%, Lee Fisher (D) 40%

OH-Sen, Gov PPP: John Kasich (R) 49%, Ted Strickland (D-inc) 48%; Rob Portman (R) 57%, Lee Fisher (D) 39%

OH-Sen, Gov Quinnipiac: John Kasich (R) 47%, Ted Strickland (D-inc) 46%; Rob Portman (R) 56%, Lee Fisher (D) 37%

OH-Sen Rasmussen: Rob Portman (R) 57%, Lee Fisher (D) 33%

OH-Sen, Gov Univ. of Cincinnati: John Kasich (R) 52%, Ted Strickland (D-inc) 48%; Rob Portman (R) 60%, Lee Fisher (D) 39%

OH-Sen, Gov YouGov: John Kasich (R) 48%, Ted Strickland (D-inc) 45%; Rob Portman (R) 52%, Lee Fisher (D) 39%

PA-Sen Marist: Pat Toomey (R) 52%, Joe Sestak (D) 45%

PA-Sen, Gov Muhlenberg: Pat Toomey (R) 48%, Joe Sestak (D) 44%; Tom Corbett (R) 49%, Dan Onorato (D) 42%

PA-Sen, Gov PPP: Pat Toomey (R) 51%, Joe Sestak (D) 46%; Tom Corbett (R) 52%, Dan Onorato (D) 45%

PA-Sen, Gov Quinnipiac: Pat Toomey (R) 50%, Joe Sestak (D) 45%; Tom Corbett (R) 52%, Dan Onorato (D) 42%

PA-Gov Rasmussen: Tom Corbett (R) 52%, Dan Onorato (D) 43%

PA-Sen, Gov Susquehanna for Tribune-Review: Pat Toomey (R) 46%, Joe Sestak (D) 44%; Tom Corbett (R) 48%, Dan Onorato (D) 41%

PA-Sen, Gov YouGov: Pat Toomey (R) 48%, Joe Sestak (D) 44%; Tom Corbett (R) 51%, Dan Onorato (D) 40%

UT-Gov, Sen, 02 Mason-Dixon: Gary Herbert (R-inc) 59%, Peter Coroon (D) 32%; Mike Lee (R) 48%, Sam Granato (D) 32%; Jim Matheson (D-inc) 48%, Morgan Philpot (R) 35%

UT-Gov, Sen, 02 Dan Jones (for Deseret News): Gary Herbert (R-inc) 63%, Peter Coroon (D) 29%; Mike Lee (R) 57%, Sam Granato (D) 30%; Jim Matheson (D-inc) 51%, Morgan Philpot (R) 39%

VA-05 POS for Robert Hurt: Robert Hurt (R) 45%, Tom Perriello (D) 42%

VT-Gov Rasmussen: Peter Shumlin (D) 50%, Brian Dubie (R) 45%

WA-Sen Fox/Pulse: Patty Murray (D-inc) 49%, Dino Rossi (R) 47%

WA-Sen Marist: Patty Murray (D-inc) 49%, Dino Rossi (R) 48%

WA-Sen PPP: Dino Rossi (R) 50%, Patty Murray (D-inc) 48%

WA-Sen YouGov: Patty Murray (D-inc) 50%, Dino Rossi (R) 47%

WI-Sen Marist: Ron Johnson (R) 52%, Russ Feingold (D-inc) 45%

WI-Sen, Gov YouGov: Ron Johnson (R) 52%, Russ Feingold (D-inc) 46%; Scott Walker (R) 53%, Tom Barrett (D) 43%

WV-Sen PPP: Joe Manchin (D) 51%, John Raese (R) 46%

WV-Sen Rasmussen: Joe Manchin (D) 50%, John Raese (R) 46%

SSP Daily Digest: 10/29 (Afternoon Edition)

FL-Sen: File this under half a year too late and a few million dollars too short. Charlie Crist, as quietly as possible through an advisor making a leak to the Wall Street Journal, says he’d caucus with the Democrats if elected. If he’d said that many months ago, he would have probably had a clearer shot consolidating the Democratic vote and turning it into a two-man race. This comes shortly after a day of conflicting reports on whether or not Bill Clinton tried to get Kendrick Meek to drop out of the race, as recently as last week. Clinton and Meek have offered partial rebuttals, but at any rate, it’s kind of a non-story at this point with only a few days left.

LA-Sen: Too bad there isn’t time left in the cycle to turn this into an ad: David Vitter’s verbal gymnastics at the last debate as to direct questions as to whether or not he actually broke the law when he was engaging in “very serious sin,” apparently for pay. The short answer is, of course, yes (assuming that his involvement with a prostitution ring occurred in Washington DC and not Reno).

NV-Sen: Those of you following Jon Ralston’s tweets of the early voting in Nevada with bated breath probably already know this, but thanks to the movement of the mobile voting booths into some Dem-friendly areas, Democrats have actually pulled into the lead (at least by party registration) among early voters, up by 20,000 in Clark County.

CO-Gov: My first question was why Tom Tancredo would even bother running for office if he felt this way, but then I remembered that he’s running for an executive position this time, not a legislative one. Apparently he’s a believer in a strong executive. Very, very, very strong.

There is a sort of an elitist idea that seeps into the head of a lot of people who get elected. And they begin to think of themselves as, really, there for only one purpose and that is to make laws. And why would you make laws?

IL-Gov: Oooops, ad buy fail. A round of Bill Brady ads were pulled from the air on Thursday because the appropriate television stations didn’t get paid first. It appears to have been a “glitch” (their words) rather than a cash flow problem, though, nothing that a Fed-Exed check won’t fix: the ads will resume running tonight.

PA-Gov: Ah, nice to see that a Republican briefly acknowledge that the fewer people vote, the better Republicans do. Tom Corbett, at a Philadelphia appearance, said that he wanted to keep Democratic participation down, saying “we want to make sure that they don’t get 50 percent.”

OH-13: Sensing a pattern here? A second woman is coming forward to accuse Tom Ganley of sexual harassment. She filed a police report stating that in 2005, while in the middle of a car transaction, Ganley groped her and later propositioned her. This race, despite Ganley’s money, is seeming increasingly like one of the House Dems’ lesser worries.

RGA: I’m not sure what you can do with $6.5 million in half a week, but the RGA is determined to find out. They put that much money into four governor’s races in some of the nation’s largest states: Florida, Illinois, Ohio, and (interestingly, since they haven’t sweated this one before) Pennsylvania. (While the other three are for TV ads, in Florida it’s for GOTV… seemingly something that Rick Scott forgot to purchase.)

Election night: This may be the most shocking news of all today, for the obsessive number crunchers among us. This will be the first election where the powers that be (mostly the AP) will be doing away with precinct reporting. Instead of giving specific numbers of precincts in, they’ll be expressing it as “percentage of expected vote.” The change in longstanding tradition has mostly to do with the increasing prevalence of mail-in votes and early votes, best seen with some locales dumping all their early votes all at once and calling it one precinct, messing with people like us who build complicated models ahead of time.

SSP TV:

IL-Sen: Mark Kirk’s last ad calls Alexi Giannoulias “too immature” for the Senate (um, has he actually seen the Senate in action?)

NV-Sen: Obama! Fear! Tyranny! Aaaghh! And apparently the Carmina Burana playing the background! (Sharron Angle’s closing statement, in other words)

WI-Sen: Russ Feingold puts on a plaid shirt and faces the camera, touting his accomplishments and newspaper endorsements

TX-Gov: Bill White also rolls out his newspaper endorsements, as well as lobbing “career politician” at Rick Perry one last time

MN-06: Taryl Clark’s last ad is a look at real people with real problems in the 6th, and the myriad ways Michele Bachmann blew them off

Rasmussen:

CA-Gov: Jerry Brown (D) 49%, Meg Whitman (R) 45%

CO-Gov: John Hickenlooper (D) 47%, Dan Maes (R) 5%, Tom Tancredo (C) 42%

KY-Sen: Jack Conway (D) 41%, Rand Paul (R) 53%

MA-Gov: Deval Patrick (D-inc) 46%, Charlie Baker (R) 44%, Tim Cahill (I) 6%

OR-Sen: Ron Wyden (D-inc) 53%, Jim Huffman (R) 42%

PA-Sen: Joe Sestak (D) 46%, Pat Toomey (R) 50%

YouGov: The English pollster is out with a slew of polls; the numbers seem very plausible, but they’re conducted over the Internet (probably using at least some sort of rigor, but that alone is enough for relegation to the end of the digest)

CA: Jerry Brown (D) 50%, Meg Whitman (R) 41%; Barbara Boxer (D-inc) 49%, Carly Fiorina (R) 45%

FL: Alex Sink (D) 44%, Rick Scott (R) 41%; Kendrick Meek (D) 18%, Marco Rubio (R) 42%, Charlie Crist (I) 31%

NY: Andrew Cuomo (D) 57%, Carl Paladino (R) 27%; Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc) 57%, Joe DioGuardi (R) 33%; Charles Schumer (D-inc) 59%, Jay Townsend (R) 35%

OH: Ted Strickland (D-inc) 45%, John Kasich (R) 48%; Lee Fisher (D) 40%, Rob Portman (R) 53%

PA: Dan Onorato (D) 41%, Tom Corbett (R) 50%; Joe Sestak (D) 44%, Pat Toomey (R) 50%

SSP Daily Digest: 10/25 (Morning Edition)

  • Site News: Holy moly. We just passed ten million all-time visitors yesterday. Wow. Just really have to take a step back for a moment. When I started this site almost exactly seven years ago, I never, ever imagined we’d achieve anything like this. Just a huge thank you to every reader who has checked in since Oct. 19, 2003 to today – and beyond.
  • AR-Gov (Mason-Dixon): Mike Beebe (D-inc) 59, Jim Keet (R) 26
  • CA-Sen, CA-Gov (Greenberg Quinlan Rosner & American Viewpoint for the LA Times/USC): Barbara Boxer (D-inc) 50, Carly Fiorina (R) 42; Jerry Brown (D) 52, Meg Whitman (R) 39
  • CA-Gov (John McLaughlin & David Hill (R) for Meg Whitman): Jerry Brown (D) 46, Meg Whitman (R) 43
  • CO-Sen, CO-Gov (SurveyUSA for 9News/Denver Post): Michael Bennet (D-inc) 47, Ken Buck (R) 47; John Hickenlooper (D) 46, Dan Maes (R) 15, Tom Tancredo (ACP) 34
  • Bonus: SUSA also tested the state AG, SoS, and Treasurer races.

  • CO-Gov (Magellan): John Hickenlooper (D) 44, Dan Maes (R) 9, Tom Tancredo (ACP) 43
  • FL-Sen, FL-Gov (Ipsos for Florida media): Kendrick Meek (D) 20, Marco Rubio (R) 41, Charlie Crist (I) 26; Alex Sink (D) 41, Rick Scott (R) 44
  • Bonus: Ipsos also tested the AG, Ag Comm’r, and CFO races.

  • FL-Gov (Susquehanna for Sunshine State News): Alex Sink (D) 45, Rick Scott (R) 45
  • IL-Sen, IL-Gov (Mason-Dixon for St. Louis Post-Dispatch/KMOV-TV): Pat Quinn (D-inc) 40, Bill Brady (R) 44; Alexi Giannoulias (D) 41, Mark Kirk (R) 43
  • Note: The poll apparently asked respondents about “Alex Giannoulias.”

  • IL-Sen (Market Shares Corp. for the Chicago Tribune): Alexi Giannoulias (D) 41, Mark Kirk (R) 44
  • LA-Sen (Anzalone-Liszt (D) for Charlie Melancon): Charlie Melancon (D) 45, David Vitter (R-inc) 48
  • MA-Gov (Western New England College): Deval Patrick (D-inc) 44, Charlie Baker (R) 36, Tim Cahill (I) 8
  • MA-Gov (UNH): Deval Patrick (D-inc) 43, Charlie Baker (R) 39, Tim Cahill (I) 8
  • MD-Gov (OpinionWorks for the Baltimore Sun): Martin O’Malley (D-inc) 52, Bob Ehrlich (R) 38
  • ME-Gov (Critical Insights): Libby Mitchell (D) 20, Paul LePage (R) 32, Eliot Cutler 19
  • MN-Gov (Princeton Survey Research for the Minneapolis Star-Tribune): Mark Dayton (D) 41, Tom Emmer (R) 34, Tom Horner (I) 13
  • MO-Sen (Mason-Dixon for St. Louis Post-Dispatch/KMOV-TV): Robin Carnahan (D) 40, Roy Blunt (R) 49
  • NY-Gov (Marist): Andrew Cuomo (D) 60, Carl Paladino (R) 37
  • PA-Gov (Quinnipiac): Dan Onorato (D) 44, Tom Corbett (R) 49
  • WV-Sen (Global Strategy Group (D) for Joe Manchin): Joe Manchin (D) 48, John Raese (R) 43
  • Margins & Errors: On Sunday, Pat Toomey moved out to a 3-point lead in the Muhlenberg tracker, while Tom Corbett is +9… some sketchy details of IN-02 internals from Brian Howey: “Howard County Republican Chairman Craig Dunn said internal polling has shown Walorski chipping a 9-point Donnelly lead to “at the margin of error” around 4 percent.” … CNN sources tell them that Harry Reid’s internals have him up 6 over Sharron Angle in NV-Sen… PPP will have polls out for CA, CO, KY & WV this week

    SSP Daily Digest: 10/22 (Afternoon Edition)

    KY-Sen: The Beltway chattering class seems to have either moved on from “Aqua Buddha,” or taken it as a given that it just backfired on Jack Conway. Josh Green at the Atlantic does some actual, y’know, reporting on what’s happening on the ground, though, and finds that the ad (and its rebuttal), and their aftermath, are still completely driving the conversation in Kentucky. Local GOP pols still seem to think that Rand Paul will squeak by in the end, but it’s thrown him deeply off message and the refusal to debate again doesn’t look good on him. (UPDATE: Actually, Greg Sargent just reported that the Conway camp is taking down the Aqua Buddha ad. To clarify “taking down,” though, this was a planned move, as it reached the end of its original run, to be replaced by this sales tax ad.)

    PA-Sen: Barack Obama will be making a four-state swing through the east coast and midwest over the weekend prior to the election; one of the stopping spots will be Philadelphia, where he’ll be doing a canvassing event. He’ll also be doing rallies in Chicago, Cleveland, and Bridgeport, Connecticut (indicating they’re still leaving nothing to chance with Richard Blumenthal).

    CA-Gov: Meg Whitman breaking self-funding records has become something of a dog-bites-man story around here, but one more for old times sake: she spent $23 million in the first half of October, bringing her all-cycle total to $163 million. Jerry Brown, by contrast, spent $14.6 million in that period, bringing his all-cycle spending to $25 million.

    CO-Gov: I doubt this is much of a game-changer, but it may help flip a few more Colorado Springs area votes in Tom Tancredo’s direction (if there were any Dan Maes supporters left there). Rep. Doug Lamborn became perhaps the most prominent elected Republican in Colorado to publicly come out in support of Tancredo, rather than Maes.

    MN-Gov: The RGA must be seeing something the polls aren’t telling them, because they’re still fighting till the end in Minnesota. (Of course, if one committee has money to throw at unlikely races and see what sticks, it’s the RGA.) They just gave $1 million to third party group Minnesota Future to run more anti-Mark Dayton (and probably anti-Tom Horner) ads. (You may remember Minnesota Future from the whole Target contribution controversy. Interestingly, Hubbard Broadcasting, owner of local TV station KSTP, also was just identified as having given $25K to Minnesota Future. Y’know, because they’re part of that liberal lamestream media.)

    FL-24: And here I’d thought we’d dodged something of a bullet when Karen Diebel got sent packing to spent more time guarding her swimming pool. Sandy Adams, who seems likely to be the next Representative for the Space Coast, has come out in favor of the “biblical teachings” rather than the theory of evolution. I look forward to hearing her proposals for a faith-based space program next.

    ID-01: The Tea Party Express finally endorsed Raul Labrador in the 1st. However, that comes only after they tried to endorse Democratic incumbent Walt Minnick as their token Dem fig-leaf and he rejected the endorsement (over racist statements by one of their, at the time, key members).

    Early voting: Ohio Democrats are pointing to an edge in early voting, where they’re leading 44 percent to 34 percent for Republicans in votes cast so far. The Republicans are claiming the edge after three days of early voting in Florida, with a 148,000 vote edge, although Dems pointed out that was about where the numbers were in the 2006 election.

    Redistricting: Here’s a good counterpoint to several articles that have shrugged off the possible large Republican advantage on the redistricting front coming out of this election, one that actually looks at the actual number of House seats that are likely to be influenced. Extrapolating likely control of state governorships and legislatures, the GOP will have “untrammeled” control over 125 House seats while Dems will control only 62, a worse outcome than 1990 or 2000. (43 are in commission-based states or at-large states, with 205 drawn by divided governments.)

    Chamber of Commerce: This article was been making the rounds, but it’s a must-read if you haven’t already done so and you’re interested in the “dark money” that’s swamping the transparent money, this cycle more than ever. The NYT digs into what corporations are using the national Chamber of Commerce as a pass-through for their contributions, including Prudential, Dow Chemical, and Dutch insurer Aegon.

    SSP TV:

    AZ-Sen: This looks like John McCain’s last ad, as it’s a soft-focus closing argument type of spot

    CO-Sen: The League of Conservation Voters hits Ken Buck on environmental issues

    DE-Sen: Here’s the first Chris Coons ad to take on Christine O’Donnell directly, saying she lives in the “Twilight Zone”

    NV-Sen: Harry Reid rolls out endorsements from various local business leaders in his newest ad

    WA-Sen: Waiting until the end to go after Dino Rossi for his anti-abortion stance seems to be tradition now, in order to swing any last-minute moderate women who haven’t decided, and the DSCC piles on

    HI-Gov: Barack Obama, fresh off his Colleen Hanabusa spot, also cuts an ad touting Neil Abercrombie

    RI-Gov: The DGA keeps pounding on Lincoln Chafee over the tax hikes he’d like (I’ve also heard the RGA is buying an ad here on behalf of John Robitaille, though I haven’t seen a link)

    WV-03: Ewwww… Spike Maynard plays the terrorist card against Arab-American Rep. Nick Rahall

    MoveOn: MoveOn seems to have saved their powder for one huge blast at the end, running ads in eight Senate races and 20 House races (here’s their WI-08 ad), helping only Dems who voted in favor of HCR

    Sierra Club: The Sierra Club is out with ads boosting Democratic incumbents in FL-22, MI-07, and AZ-08

    60+ Assoc.: The AARP’s evil doppelganger is running two spots, a two-fer in Arizona hitting both Raul Grijalva and Gabby Giffords, and… here’s a new one… Solomon Ortiz in TX-27

    Rasmussen:

    MN-Gov: Mark Dayton (D) 44%, Tom Emmer (R) 41%, Tom Horner (I) 10%

    NY-Gov: Andrew Cuomo (D) 51%, Carl Paladino (R) 37%

    NY-Sen: Charles Schumer (D-inc) 59%, Jay Townsend (R) 31%

    SD-AL: Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D-inc) 44%, Kristi Noem (R) 49%

    SSP Daily Digest: 10/19 (Morning Edition)

    What better way to celebrate SSP’s seventh birthday than to give you another firehose blast of polls?

    AL-02: Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (D) for the DCCC (10/9-12, likely voters, 9/26-28 in parens):

    Bobby Bright (D-inc): 51 (52)

    Martha Roby (R): 39 (43)

    (MoE: ±4.9%)

    AR-01: Anzalone Liszt for the DCCC (10/11-13, likely voters, 9/13-16 in parens):

    Chad Causey (D): 44 (46)

    Rick Crawford (R): 42 (44)

    (MoE: ±4.9%)

    AR-01: Talk Business Research and Hendrix College (PDF) (10/14, likely voters, 8/17 in parens):

    Chad Causey (D): 34 (32)

    Rick Crawford (R): 42 (48)

    Ken Adler (G): 4 (4)

    Undecided: 20 (20)

    (MoE: ±4.7%)

    AR-02: Talk Business Research and Hendrix College (PDF) (10/14, likely voters, 8/17 in parens):

    Joyce Elliott (D): 38 (35)

    Tim Griffin (R): 50 (52)

    Lance Levi (I): 3 (3)

    Lewis Kennedy (G): 3 (1)

    Undecided: 7 (9)

    (MoE: ±4.6%)

    AR-03: Talk Business Research and Hendrix College (PDF) (10/14, likely voters, 8/25 in parens):

    David Whitaker (D): 21 (31)

    Steve Womack (R): 59 (55)

    Undecided: 20 (14)

    (MoE: ±4.2%)

    AR-04: Talk Business Research and Hendrix College (PDF) (10/14, likely voters, 8/25-26 in parens):

    Mike Ross (D-inc): 52 (49)

    Beth Anne Rankin (R): 34 (31)

    Joshua Drake (G): 3 (4)

    Undecided: 11 (16)

    (MoE: ±4.2%)

    CA-47: Public Opinion Strategies (R) for Van Tran (10/13-14, likely voters, no trendlines):

    Loretta Sanchez (D-inc): 39

    Van Tran (R): 39

    Ceci Iglesias (I): 5

    Undecided: 17

    (MoE: ±5.7%)

    FL-Sen: Suffolk (10/14-17, likely voters, no trendlines):

    Kendrick Meek (D): 22

    Marco Rubio (R): 39

    Charlie Crist (I): 31

    Undecided: 6

    (MoE: ±4.4%)

    FL-Gov: Suffolk (10/14-17, likely voters, no trendlines):

    Alex Sink (D): 45

    Rick Scott (R): 38

    Undecided: 13

    (MoE: ±4.4%)

    Misc.: In the AG race, Pam Bondi (R) leads Dan Gelber (D), 38-30. Also, a poll by Voter Survey Service (aka Susquehanna) for the right-wing Sunshine State News site has Adam Putnam (R) leading Scott Maddox (D) in the Ag Comm’r race, 40-35. Tea Party candidate Ira Chester takes 14%.

    MA-Gov: Public Opinion Strategies (R) for Charlie Baker (10/11-13, likely voters, no trendlines):

    Deval Patrick (D-inc): 35

    Charlie Baker (R): 42

    Tim Cahill (I): 10

    (MoE: ±3.5%)

    MA-10: MassINC Polling Group for WGBH (10/13-15, likely voters incl. leaners, no trendlines):

    William Keating (D): 46

    Jeffrey Perry (R): 43

    Other: 5

    Undecided: 4

    (MoE: ±4.9%)

    MI-Gov: Foster McCollum White and Baydoun Consulting (D) (PDF) (10/7, likely voters, no trendlines):

    Virg Bernero (D): 37

    Rick Snyder: 50

    Undecided: 13

    (MoE: ±2.1%)

    MO-Sen: Public Policy Polling (D) (PDF) for Robin Carnahan (10/17-18, likely voters, 8/14-15 in parens):

    Robin Carnahan (D): 41 (38)

    Roy Blunt (R): 46 (45)

    Jerry Beck (C): 3 (5)

    Jonathan Dine (L): 3 (3)

    Undecided: 7 (9)

    (MoE: ±3.9%)

    NM-Gov: SurveyUSA for KOB-TV (10/12-14, likely voters, 5/23-25 in parens)

    Diane Denish (D): 42 (43)

    Susana Martinez (R): 54 (49)

    Undecided: 4 (8)

    (MoE: ±3.9%)

    Note: Among the 13% of respondents who say they have already voted, Martinez has a 60-36 lead.

    NY-25: Siena (10/10-12, likely voters, no trendlines):

    Dan Maffei (D-inc): 51

    Ann Marie Buerkle (R): 39

    Undecided: 10

    (MoE: ±3.9%)

    Note: Maggie Haberman tweets that Karl Rove’s American Crossroads plans to get involved here.

    NY-Gov: New York Times (PDF) (10/10-15, likely voters, no trendlines):

    Andrew Cuomo (D): 59

    Carl Paladino (R): 24

    Undecided: 12

    (MoE: ±3%)

    OR-04: Grove Insight (D) for Peter DeFazio (10/11-12, likely voters, no trendlines):

    Peter DeFazio (D-inc): 53

    Art Robinson (R): 39

    (MoE: ±4.9%)

    OR-05: Moore Information (R) for Scott Bruun (10/13-14, likely voters, no trendlines):

    Kurt Schrader (D-inc): 40

    Scott Bruun: 44

    (MoE: ±5.7%)

    PA-15: Muhlenberg (PDF) (10/5-13, likely voters, 9/11-16 in parens):

    John Callahan (D): 32 (38)

    Charlie Dent (R-inc): 49 (49)

    Jake Towne (I): 5 (3)

    Undecided: 13 (10)

    (MoE: ±5%)

    UT-Gov: Dan Jones & Associates for the Deseret News/KSL-TV (10/11-14, “active voters,” 10/7-13 in parens):

    Peter Corroon (D): 33 (31)

    Gary Herbert (R-inc): 58 (52)

    Undecided: 6 (13)

    (MoE: ±4%)

    Note: The Deseret News says that Dan Jones has also done polling for Herbert. Should we be regarding them as an (R) pollster?

    UT-Gov: UtahPolicy.com/Western Wats (9/30-10/3, likely voters, no trendlines):

    Peter Corroon (D): 27

    Gary Herbert (R-inc): 58

    Undecided: 12

    (MoE: ±4%)

    Note: Dan Jones also has UT-Sen numbers. UtahPolicy.com also has UT-Sen, UT-01, and UT-03 numbers.

    VA-05: Roanoke College (10/5-14, likely voters, no trendlines):

    Tom Perriello (D-inc): 40

    Rob Hurt (R): 46

    Jeffrey Clark (I): 1

    Undecided: 13

    (MoE: ±4.1%)

    WI-Gov: St. Norbert College (PDF) for Wisconsin Public Radio (10/12-15, likely voters, 3/23-31 in parens):

    Tom Barrett (D): 41 (28)

    Scott Walker (R): 50 (44)

    Undecided: 6 (17)

    (MoE: ±5%)

    Margins & Errors: The Fix publishes an alleged WA-Sen poll without either field dates or sample size… Bill Kristol (yeah, that Bill Kristol) claims he has his hands on an OH-10 poll – he has the n, but won’t say the pollster’s name, who paid for the poll, or when it was taken… Pollster.com has a PDF from ccAdvertising with numbers for WV-Sen, WV-01, and WV-03 – but not only does ccA report to hundredths of a percent, they get taken to the woodshed by Mark Blumenthal for refusing to divulge the poll’s sponsor

    SSP Daily Digest: 10/18 (Morning Edition)

  • CO-Sen: In a debate on Meet the Press with Sen. Michael Bennet, GOPer Ken Buck said he thinks that being gay is a choice – and then followed up by saying, “I think that birth has an influence over it, like alcoholism and some other things, but I think that basically you have a choice.”
  • NH-Sen: This is not so helpful: Paul Hodes’s former pollster, Mountain West Research, just agreed to pay New Hampshire a $20K fine for failing to comply with state law regarding a negative message-testing poll they did on behalf of Hodes this past summer. The AP calls it “push polling,” but it quite clearly wasn’t, given the small number of respondents involved, and also the timing (push polling is something you do to mass numbers of people right before election day). It seems like Mountain West’s sin was failing to identify the poll’s sponsor (i.e., Hodes) on their calls.
  • PA-Sen: CQ says that the DSCC has spent $4.7 million in Pennsylvania to date (not include the $1.2 million they shelled out to help Arlen Specter), and Dems expect to spend $9 million before all is said and done, making it the biggest commitment in the nation. Thanks to independent groups, the NRSC has only spent about $600K here so far.
  • WV-Sen: This has already come up on the campaign trail (Joe Manchin’s mentioned it in ads, for instance), but now it’s official: John Raese’s wife has been formally purged from the West Virginia voting rolls – because she’s also registered to vote in Florida, where she lives. (Ooh! Voter fraud!) And while we’re on the topic, Raese probably wishes that Rush Limbaugh would shut his big fat mouth. This is how Big Pharma described the senate candidate while endorsing him on his show:
  • “Full disclosure, I happen to know John Raese. He is a part-time resident here in Palm Beach and he has a locker right across the, right across the bench from me at a prominent local club. I’ve never played golf with him, but I’ve met him.”

    As the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette’s Daniel Malloy says, “The image of Raese rubbing elbows with Rush at a swank Palm Beach country club is not one that the Raese campaign must welcome right now.”

  • AZ-07: I wonder what guys like Steve Driehaus have to think when they get told to walk the plank while veterans in much bluer districts who are victims only of their own self-inflicted wounds – oh, such as, I dunno, Raul Grijalva – get help airlifted in from above. Anyhow, the DCCC must clearly sense trouble in AZ’s 7th CD, since they’ve gone up on the air here with an ad hitting Ruth McClung for supporting a 23% national sales tax.
  • FL-22: You may have seen the news that GOPer Allen West has a disturbingly close relationship with a notorious gang of violent criminals known as the Outlaws Motorcycle Club. The best part now, though, is West’s denial that he has any affiliation with the group, in which he channels a sort of Bizarro Groucho Marx. The Outlaws, you see, “do not accept blacks, Jews or gays.” Phew!
  • NC-11: Big Dog alert! Bill Clinton is doing a rally for Heath Shuler in Asheville on Thursday.
  • NY-22: It may not be quite Paul LePage levels, but Maurice Hinchey probably wishes he hadn’t gotten so testy with a reporter who asked him questions about whether he had a financial interest in a local development project. On tape, you can see Hinchey tell William Kemble that he is “full of baloney” and to “shut up.” After the cameras stopped rolling, though, Hinchey apparently “made a beeline for Kemble and got in his face.” Crew for local station YNN said they “saw the congressman poke Kemble in the chest aggressively.”
  • TN-08: Though Ron Johnson’s received probably the most attention in recent months, I think Steve Fincher may be this cycle’s granddaddy for bailouts-for-me-but-not-for-thee Republicanism. As an agribusiness kingpin, he’s raked in millions in federal farm subsidies. Now it turns out that he also received a state grant just last year – and may have even violated the terms of that grant by selling the equipment it helped him buy too quickly.
  • TX-17: It looks like Bill Flores is going to win the Tommy Thompson Award for Crazy Beliefs Blamed on Bodily Functions. You may recall that Thompson (by far my favorite Republican candidate to run in the last GOP presidential primary) claimed that a full bladder caused him to say he favored allowing employers to fire gay employees during a debate in 2007. Now Flores wants backsies for telling an interviewer that he was not opposed to raising the Social Security retirement age… because he had a headache.
  • DCCC/NRCC: CQ says that so far, the NRCC has spent $31 million on independent expenditures this cycle, while the D-Trip has spent $22 mil.
  • Senate: Politico has a roundup of senate fundraising numbers.
  • SSP TV:

    • PA-Sen: It’s been a while, but at long last, we finally have another poop-themed ad, thanks to Joe Sestak
    • KY-Sen: I worship you, Aqua Buddha! (Apparently this ad has turned Rand Paul into a WATB)
    • GA-Gov: Roy Barnes hits Nathan Deal for once having tried to weaken the state’s rape shield law; the RGA uses a clip of Roy Barnes dismissing the deaths of two children in state custody: “Out of 20,000 children, you’re going to have children die every day.”
    • NY-Gov: Andrew Cuomo whacks Carl Paladino on abortion rights
    • CA-03: Karl Rove’s American Crossroads attacks Ami Bera for supporting “Obamacare”
    • CA-20: The DCCC says Republican Andy Vidak wants to cut federal funding for water projects (apparently a big issue in this district)
    • NY-04: Carolyn McCarthy’s first spot of the cycle touts her focus on job creation
    • OH-02: Dem Surya Yalamanchili says his ad cost him only $20 to make
    • TX-27: In a much-less-good-than-it-could-have-been ad, Rep. Solomon Ortiz features that goofy photo of Blake Farenthold in his pajamas with a scantily clad woman
    • VA-01: Dem Krystal Ball introduces herself with her first ad

    Weekend Poll Dump: Senate, Gov, and Other Miscellany

    AK-Sen: National Research, Inc. for the Club for Growth (10/8-9, likely voters):

    Scott McAdams (D): 27

    Lisa Murkowski (WI-inc): 31

    Joe Miller (R): 33

    (MoE: ±4.9%)

    CA-Sen, CA-Gov, Prop 23: Ipsos for Reuters (10/12-14, likely voters, 10/2-4 in parens):

    Barbara Boxer (D-inc): 46 (49)

    Carly Fiorina (R): 45 (45)

    Jerry Brown (D): 48 (50)

    Meg Whitman (R): 44 (43)

    Yes on 23: 35

    No on 23: 46

    (MoE: ±4.6%)

    CT-Gov: Quinnipiac (10/7-11, likely voters, 9/21-26 in parens):

    Dan Malloy (D): 49 (45)

    Tom Foley (R): 42 (42)

    (MoE: ±2.9%)

    FL-Gov: Susquehanna for Sunshine State News (10/12-13, likely voters, 9/28-10/3 in parens):

    Alex Sink (D): 48 (44)

    Rick Scott (R): 44 (50)

    (MoE: ±2.2%)

    HI-Gov: Aloha Vote for Honolulu Civil Beat (10/11, likely voters):

    Neil Abercrombie (D): 47

    Duke Aiona (R): 44

    (MoE: ±2.9%)

    KS-Sen, KS-Gov: Survey USA for KWCH-TV (10/10-12, likely voters, 9/14-16 in parens):

    Tom Holland (D): 32 (32)

    Sam Brownback (R): 60 (59)

    Andrew Gray (L): 3 (3)

    Ken Cannon (Ref): 4 (4)

    Lisa Johnston (D): 27 (24)

    Jerry Moran (R): 67 (66)

    Michael Dann (L): 2 (2)

    Joe Bellis (Ref): 3 (5)

    (MoE: ±4%)

    For SoS, Dems trail 35-53; for State Treasurer, it’s 39-55. For Attorney General, appointed Dem Steve Six trails Derek Schmidt 40-48.

    MA-Gov: Suffolk University (10/10-12, registered voters, 9/14-16 in parens):

    Deval Patrick (D-inc): 46 (41)

    Charlie Baker (R): 39 (34)

    Tim Cahill (I): 10 (14)

    Jill Stein (G): 1 (4)

    (MoE: ±4.4%)

    ME-Gov: Critical Insights for Maine Today Media (10/10-11, likely voters, 9/27 in parens):

    Libby Mitchell (D): 29 (33)

    Paul LePage (R): 34 (33)

    Eliot Cutler (I): 13 (10)

    Shawn Moody (I): 7 (6)

    Kevin Scott (I): 1 (-)

    (MoE: ±4.0%)

    MN-Gov: SurveyUSA for KSTP-TV (10/11-13, likely voters, 9/12-14 in parens):

    Mark Dayton (DFL): 42 (38)

    Tom Emmer (R): 37 (36)

    Tom Horner (IP): 14 (18)

    Other: 3 (5)

    (MoE: ±3.7%)

    NH-Sen: University of New Hampshire (10/7-12, likely voters, 9/23-29 in parens):

    Paul Hodes (D): 35 (35)

    Kelly Ayotte (R): 50 (50)

    Other: 3 (2)

    (MoE: ±3.7%)

    NV-Sen, NV-Gov: MasonDixon for the LVRJ (10/11-12, likely voters, 9/20-22 in parens):

    Harry Reid (D-inc): 45 (43)

    Sharron Angle (R): 47 (43)

    Other: 2 (2)

    NOTA: 2 (4)

    Rory Reid (D): 37 (37)

    Brian Sandoval (R): 52 (51)

    Other: 2 (3)

    NOTA: 1 (2)

    (MoE: ±4%)

    NV-Gov: Public Policy Polling (10/7-9, likely voters, July in parens):

    Rory Reid (D): 43 (38)

    Brian Sandoval (R): 52 (52)

    (MoE: ±4.4%)

    NV-Gov: Suffolk University (10/8-11, likely voters, in parens):

    Rory Reid (D): 39

    Brian Sandoval (R): 50

    Other: 2

    NOTA: 3

    (MoE: ±4.4%)

    Bonus findings: Incumbent LG Brian Krolicki (R) leads Dem Jessica Sferrazza 42-30, Dem SoS Ross Miller leads 40-24, Dem Treasurer Kate Marshall trails 33-38, and Dem Controller Kim Wallin leads 31-26.

    NY-Gov, NY-Sen, NY-Sen-B: SurveyUSA for WABC-TV, WHEC-TV, and WNYT-TV (10/11-13, likely voters, in parens):

    Andrew Cuomo (D): 59 (57)

    Carl Paladino (R): 33 (34)

    Other: 6 (5)

    Chuck Schumer (D): 63 (60)

    Jay Townsend (R): 30 (30)

    Other: 4 (6)

    Kirsten Gillibrand (D): 54 (54)

    Joe DioGuardi (R): 36 (35)

    Other: 7 (8)

    (MoE: ±3.9%)

    Bonus finding: Manhattan/Bronx state Senator Eric Schneiderman (D) leads Staten Island DA Dan Donovan (R) for Attorney General 44-40, down from 46-40 a week ago.

    OH-Sen, OH-Gov: Univ. of Cincinnati for the Ohio Poll(10/8-13, likely voters, 9/16-20 in parens):

    Lee Fisher (D): 36 (40)

    Rob Portman (R): 58 (55)

    Ted Strickland (D-inc): 43 (45)

    John Kasich (R): 51 (49)

    (MoE: ±3.7%)

    OK-Sen: Sooner Poll (10/3-7, likely voters):

    Jim Rogers (D): 22

    Tom Coburn (R-inc): 62

    Other: 2

    (MoE: ±5.2%)

    Other results here find the GOP leading for all statewide offices: 40-28 for LG, 50-30 for Attorney General, 41-35 for Insurance Commissioner, 45-31 for Treasurer, 35-32 for State Superintendent, 44-33 for Labor Commissioner, and 41-35 for Auditor/Inspector. Dems had held most of these offices, if you’ll recall.

    OR-Gov, OR-Sen: SurveyUSA for KATU-TV (10/12-14, likely voters, 9/12-14 in parens):

    John Kitzhaber (D): 46 (43)

    Chris Dudley (R): 45 (49)

    Greg Kord (C): 4 (3)

    Wes Wagner (L): 3 (2)

    Ron Wyden (D-inc): 56 (54)

    Jim Huffman (R): 34 (38)

    Bruce Cronk (WF): 2 (3)

    Marc Delphine (L): 2 (1)

    Rick Staggenborg (P): 2 (0)

    (MoE: ±3.9%)

    PA-Gov: Magellan (10/10, likely voters, 9/21 in parens):

    Dan Onorato (D): 38 (38)

    Tom Corbett (R): 48 (50)

    (MoE: ±2.3%)

    VT-Sen, VT-Gov, VT-AL: Mason-Dixon for Vermont Public Radio (10/11-13, registered voters):

    Patrick Leahy (D-inc): 62

    Len Britton (R): 27

    Other: 4

    Peter Shumlin (D): 43

    Brian Dubie (R): 44

    Other: 5

    Peter Welch (D): 61

    Paul Beaudry (R): 25

    Other: 4

    (MoE: ±4%)

    WA-Sen: Washington Poll (10/5-14, registered voters, in parens):

    Patty Murray (D-inc): 50

    Dino Rossi (R): 42

    (MoE: ±4.3%)

    WA-Sen: SurveyUSA for KING-TV (10/11-14, likely voters, in parens):

    Patty Murray (D-inc): 50 (50)

    Dino Rossi (R): 47 (48)

    (MoE: ±4.1%)

    SSP Daily Digest: 10/14 (Morning Edition)

    What would you do without the Daily Digests?

  • MO-Sen: Republican media trackers tell Politico that the DSCC has cancelled $1.3 million worth of ad buys in Kansas City and St. Louis for the final week before the election. The DS tried to push back, saying that “decisions are made on a week-to-week basis,” but as Swingnuts well know, cancelling early reservations now subjects you to forfeiting deposits – and means you have to pay higher rates if you decide to go back in later. In other words, late cancellations are not made lightly.
  • WV-Sen: John Raese has one simple request. And that is to have sharks with frickin’ laser beams attached to their heads!
  • NV-Sen: So maybe some of that cash earmarked for Missouri is going to Nevada instead. On the heels of Sharron Angle’s eye-bursting $14 million haul, the DSCC is making its first ad reservations in the Silver State, apparently for a million bucks a week.
  • GA-Gov: Wow, Nathan Deal really is the epitome of the corrupt scumbag who thinks the purposes of getting elected to public office is to use his position for personal gain. As the AP explains: “While in Congress, Republican Nathan Deal lobbied Georgia’s attorney general and top state environmental officials to allow the development of a landfill that he and his business partner wanted next to their auto salvage yard….” Note that though this involves Deal’s auto salvage business, this is actually a different scandal from the one which inspired him to resign from Congress (there, he had lobbied the state from his perch in the House to preserve a questionable vehicle inspection program from which he profited immensely).
  • NY-Gov: For the trouble of offering a half-assed, bullshit, “I’m sorry if you were offended” non-apology, Carl Paladino has now lost the backing of the right-wing rabbi, Yehuda Levin, who helped pen the anti-gay speech which got Paladino into such hot water to begin with.
  • Relatedly, a truly awesome catch by Politico’s Maggie Haberman: She digs waaay deep to link a story at the Orthodox-oriented news blog Voz Iz Neias (Yiddish for “What’s News?”) about Paladino’s flubbed outreach in the Orthodox community. Though it’s getting far less play than his homophobic outburst, Paladino also attacked a bunch of big-time rebbes (Hasidic leaders) for supposedly being suckered into going soft on the libruhl Andrew Cuomo (who had also done the ritual meet-and-greets in Hasidic communities). Several prominent rabbis are now rebuking Paladino for waltzing on to their turf and making such presumptuous accusations against some of their own. So not only did Paladino piss off half the state thanks to this trip, he pissed off the very people he was trying to win over! In a word: fail.

  • CA-03: There aren’t a whole lot of bright spots these days, but one of them is definitely Dan Lungren. The former state AG managed to win in 2008 against a badly underfunded opponent with less than 50% of the vote, and has been getting his ass kicked in fundraising literally every quarter this cycle by Ami Bera. So with his back against the wall, Karl Rove is coming to the rescue. American Crossroads/Crossroads GPS is launching ads in the district on Friday, but NWOTSOTB as yet.
  • CA-45: You know I’m a ratfucking fetishist, so of course it warms my heart to hear that Dem Steve Pougnet is doing his best to prop up teabagger Bill Lussenheide. He’s targeting Republicans with robocalls that say Lussenheide is the “true conservative” – but he’s also sending out mailers to the same households describing him as “extreme” and “dangerous” while calling Rep. Mary Bono Mack a “raging liberal.” I imagine the idea is that what’s “extreme” and “dangerous” to normal people is actually appealing to crazies. I also love the fact that Bono Mack’s people whined that this was a “dirty trick” – just shows they are a bunch of weenies who don’t know how to fight.
  • LA-02: Man, it seems like most pols in Louisiana care about party loyalty as much as the writers of LOST cared about not pissing off their fans after six fucking years of slavishly watching that goddamn… uh, where was I? Oh yeah, state Rep. Juan LaFonta, who got pasted in the Democratic primary by Cedric Richmond, has decided to endorse Republican Rep. Joe Cao for re-election. This does not seem like the winning move to me. (And screw you, J. J. Abrams!)
  • OH-09: This comment has the flavor of Star Trek nerds debating whether Captain Picard ever wore the Federation dress uniform while on the bridge of the Enterprise D during season 4… only, except, you know, this guy is actually trying to be serious. Rich Iott’s spokesbot pleaded with Politico to understand that no, it was an SS uniform, not a NAZI uniform! I’m sure that will please John Boehner, who, as it turns out, gave $5,000 to Iott last month. Think he wants his Reichsmarks back?
  • PA-03: Paging Mark Twain… Mark Twain to the white courtesy phone. The AFSCME evidently thinks that rumors of Kathy Dahlkemper’s demise are at least somewhat exaggerated, since they’re dropping $350K on ads on her behalf. Triage is a tricky business.
  • WI-08: Aaron Blake tweets that the DCCC is “pulling out” of the 8th CD, but as is often the case, the picture is more nuanced. First off, AFSCME just dropped $750K here (to which Blake alludes). Secondly, Kagen is personally wealthy. In fact, in 2008, he was the 28th-richest member of the House, with a net worth of anywhere between $7 and $20 million. Hopefully his investments haven’t taken too bad of hit the last couple of years and he can still afford to spend large (he gave his campaign almost $900K last cycle).
  • SSP TV:

    • GA-08: Jim Marshall’s anti-Pelosi ad actually has hippies in it – for reals
    • NY-20: Fuck yes – Scott Murphy’s latest lacerates Chris Gibson for supporting repeal of the healthcare reform bill. Murphy, like Earl Pomeroy, knows the only way to win is to go loud and proud
    • TN-04: Lincoln Davis lacerates Scott DesJarlais for reportedly threatening his ex-wife with a gun – and threatening to kill himself. Stories like this were a big reason why Don Sherwood and Randy Kuhl both lost
    • ID-01: On behalf of Walt Minnick, the mother of a woman murdered by her abuser hits Raul Labrador for his failure to support laws that would protect women in abusive relationships
    • MA-06: Republican Bill Hudak hits Rep. John Tierney on a story we’ve been somewhat remiss in covering here: namely, his wife’s recent guilty plea for tax fraud. By referring to “Tierney’s family,” the ad makes it sound like Tierney himself was involved, but Hudak gets away with this legerdemain because the wife’s brother (family by marriage, I suppose) was also involved. The ad is only running on cable (Hudak had less than $100K on hand at the end of August)

    Independent Expenditures:

    • America’s Families First Action Fund: Sounds like a GOP group, but it’s actually Dem to the bone: $80K against David Schweikert (AZ-05); $403K against David Rivera (FL-25); $94K on mail against Bob Dold! (FL-25); $200K against Randy Hultgren (IL-14)
    • EMILY: $520K against Tom Ganley (OH-13); $212K against Cory Gardner (CO-04); $20K against Frank Guinta (NH-01)
    • NEA: $1.4 million against Ken Buck (CO-Sen); $306K against Harold Johnson (NC-08)
    • Realtors: $450K for Jim Gerlach (PA-06)
    • SEIU: $100K on radio ads for Cedric Richmond (LA-02); smaller amounts in MI-07 & IL-17
    • VoteVets: $325K cable buy against Pat Toomey (PA-Sen); $31K buy against Mike Fitzpatrick (PA-08); $296K for Harry Reid (NV-Sen)

    SSP Daily Digest: 10/13 (Morning Edition)

  • AK-Sen: A new PAC called “Alaskans Standing Together” has spent $600K on ads for Lisa Murkowski, a pretty huge sum for the state. AST filed with the FEC as a so-called “Super PAC,” as the Washington Independent puts it, which allows them to “raise and spend unlimited amounts of money, so long as they do so entirely independent of candidates or political parties.” Sounds a lot like a 527, except that AST will (supposedly) have to file its donor lists with the FEC. One of their ads is here – almost sounds like a Dem spot, except for the fact that Scott McAdams’ ads have been far better than this.
  • CT-Sen: Talking Points Memo went digging into an old story about a former WWF referee who, after making claims that Vince McMahon sexually assaulted her, was sued by both Vince and Linda McMahon in the early `90s. (They also sued Geraldo Rivera, on whose show the ref made her allegations.) The McMahons eventually dropped their suit after a year… but now that TPM is writing about it, their lawyer has threatened TPM with legal action.
  • WV-Sen: Trying to understand why Politico is presenting this as a new story, when we knew two weeks ago that zillionaire asshole John Raese loudly and proudly announced that he doesn’t support the minimum wage.
  • NV-Gov: Is this story going to blow up in the same way the Meg Whitman housekeeper story did? A woman says she cleaned Brian Sandoval’s home back in the late `90s while she was an illegal immigrant, and that Sandoval never asked her for documentation. Sandoval and his wife are claiming they don’t know the woman.
  • SC-Gov: Winthrop University (10/5-10, likely voters, no trendlines):
  • Vincent Sheheen (D): 37

    Nikki Haley (R): 46

    Undecided: 13

    (MoE: ±3.6%)

  • TN-08: Looks like Roy Herron is trying to make the most of the news that the DCCC’s abandoning him: He’s claiming it’s because he won’t support Nancy Pelosi. Gotta give the dude credit for trying – there’s lemonade in there somewhere!
  • UT-02: A poll by the Utah Policy Center apparently shows Rep. Jim Matheson leading Republican Morgan Philpot 46-30, with 20% undecided. The full details are behind a paywall, so we don’t know the field dates or voter screen.
  • DCCC: Ah, the panzers are definitely reconsolidating now, for real. The Fix’s Aaron Blake has a detailed writeup of the D-Trip’s ongoing triage efforts. As we mentioned yesterday, it looks like Kathy Dahlkemper (PA-03), Steve Dreihaus (OH-01), and Suzanne Kosmas (FL-24) are being left on the cutting room floor. In addition, Blake confirms his earlier tweet that Trent van Haaften (IN-08), Roy Herron (TN-08 – see above), and Stephene Moore (KS-03) are also apparently on their own as they defend open seats. Two “good” cancellations were also made in LA-02 and DE-AL, where Dem pickup chances are looking good. (Remember that even in 1994, Dems won four open seats.) But really, click through and read the whole piece, as Blake has details of cuts made all around the country – though he notes that many are small and may just represent resource shifts.
  • SSP TV:

    • NY-Gov: Andy Cuomo touts the Medicaid Fraud unit at the AG’s office, then attacks Carl Paladino as a shady insider
    • AL-02: Bobby Bright explains that he’s basically more-or-less a Republican
    • NH-02: Annie Kuster hits Charlie Bass on a common theme, “raising his own pay” while a member of Congress
    • PA-Sen: Two Joe Sestak ads on the same theme: the first points out what would have happened to retirement savings over the last couple of years had Social Security been privatized (per Pat Toomey’s wishes); the second features seniors saying basically the same thing

    Independent Expenditures:

    • PA-10: The DCCC spends $47K attacking Tom Marino – I’m wondering if some of this is for web ads, since there’s an $8 charge from GoDaddy (and the sums are smallish, though possibly radio-level)
    • Realtors: Spend $1.3 mil helping Dems Joe Donnelly (IN-02), Dennis Cardoza (CA-18), John Adler (NJ-03), and Ed Perlmutter (CO-07)