ME-Sen: Collins’ Lead Shrinks to Seven

(This topic deserves more analysis– as far as I’m concerned, it’s the biggest news of the day . . . and of the week, so far! – promoted by The Caped Composer)

Just as we were starting to give up on the Pine Tree State, a new Rasmussen poll shows incumbent Republican Susan Collins' lead shrinking (5/14 in parens):

Tom Allen (D): 42 (42) 
Susan Collins (R, inc): 49 (52)
(MoE: ±4%)

The poll found that Collins' favorability, while still high, has fallen from since last month, and her unfavorables have risen slightly.  Allen's numbers, by contrast, have remained static.  The most surprising finding here is the fact that Collins has a double-digit lead among men, but leads by only two points among women.  Discuss.

This race may still be an uphill battle, but, let's just say it's akin to climbing Cadillac, more than Katahdin.

ME-SEN: Tom Allen Wants To “Re-Defeat” Joe Lieberman

(Partially cross-posted from My Left Nutmeg.)

This is good stuff. Tom Allen is hanging Joe Lieberman around Susan Collins’ neck:

Joe knows exactly what he’s doing in supporting Collins: attempting to retain any shred of his own continued relevance by keeping the Democratic majority in the Senate as slim as possible in what is looking, once again, like a very tough cycle for GOP incumbents across the board.

And Allen knows exactly what he’s doing in tying Collins to Joe: making sure that this “moderate” Republican owns the Bush-Cheney-Lieberman war that she’s done nothing to oppose (see this NPR report on the Allen campaign this weekend), and that the Democratic Party stays strong and united against the Lieberman-GOP nexus. It’s exactly the approach that Maine Dems hinted at when they “welcomed” news of Joe’s endorsement of Collins back in April.

ME-Sen, ME-01: Allen Will Run for Senate

Rep. Tom Allen of Maine’s 1st District has made it official: he’s filed his papers to challenge Republican Senator Susan Collins.  Check out his video message and his new website here.

From a press statement:

Portland, Maine—Maine Congressman Tom Allen today filed A Statement of Candidacy form with the Secretary of the Senate to become a candidate for the United States Senate in 2008.  His campaign simultaneously launched a new website (http://www.tomallen.org) that includes a digital video statement from Congressman Allen about today’s filing.  In the statement, Allen says that he will conduct an announcement tour of the state when Congress adjourns for Memorial Day.  He said he is looking forward to a substantive debate on the issues and that he believes voters will see a clear contrast between his priorities and record and those of the incumbent. 

“Maine people tell me that they want our involvement in the Iraq War- the worst foreign policy mistake in our nation’s history -to end,” Congressman Allen says in the video announcement.  “From the beginning, when President Bush rushed to invade Iraq, Susan Collins has supported his misguided policy.  I fought to stop it.  She voted for the Iraq War.  I voted against it.  Susan Collins continues to vote with the Republicans against a timetable to end the War in Iraq.  I voted for a responsible change of course to bring our troops safely home.”

Republicans will likely point to Republican Sen. Olympia Snowe’s overwhelming victory last year in a Democratic wave year, but, simply put: Collins is no Snowe, and Allen is certainly no Jean Hay Bright.  On top of that, Snowe’s continued capitulation to the out-of-control Republican leadership in the U.S. Senate is not going to win her any accolades in her home state, especially as more and more local media outlets are turning against the Bush/Collins position on Iraq.

Race Tracker: ME-Sen

Senate 2008 Retirement Watch

(From the diaries. – promoted by James L.)

(Cross-posted on my DKos diary.  I originally posted this to my blog on February 4, but I want to get the input of the DKos and SSP communities on the topic.  What have you heard in your states?  Note that since I posted this, Thad Cochran has delayed his retirement vs. re-election bid decision, and Pete Domenici has made stronger assertions toward a re-election bid.  Also, Frank Lautenberg has made his intentions crystal clear.)

We know that the numbers favor Senate Democrats in 2008.  21 GOP vs. 12 Democratic Senators up for re-election gives the GOP a great deal more territory to have to protect.  And, as hard as it can be to hold incumbent seats, it’s even harder to retain open seats.  This again favors the Democrats, as there are many more Republican Senators on “Retirement Watch.”

DSCC Chair Chuck Schumer has said that he has gotten assurances from every Democratic Senator that they are all running for re-election, except for Iowa’s Tom Harkin, who has since demonstrated public steps toward a re-election bid.

Aside from Harkin, I’m not sold that New Jersey’s Frank Lautenberg is definitely going to run for re-election, which might not be a bad thing given Lautenberg’s low approval ratings and NJ’s wealth of Democratic Congresspeople waiting for a promotion, not to mention that Lautenberg is the Democrats’ oldest 2008 incumbent by just over a decade.

Also, Delaware’s Joe Biden is looking at the White House, but is hardly a favorite to win the nomination in 2008, meaning that he will likely opt for Senate re-election and have plenty of time to do so.

This leaves only the recovering Tim Johnson of South Dakota as a significant question mark, and even his camp is showing signs, from staffing to fundraising, that a re-election bid could still be on the horizon, health-permitting.

Meanwhile, more than half of the GOP’s 21 incumbents are on the retirement watch spectrum.  After spending much of the last decade-plus in the majority party, many of these Senators will find that spending 2007 in the minority will make for a less pleasant work environment.  And with many states, like Colorado and Virginia, on a blue-trend, some Republican Senators may opt for retirement rather than risking ending their career on a loss.  Beyond that, many Republican Senators are just really old.

1) Colorado’s Wayne Allard: Definitely retiring

2) Maine’s Susan Collins: Is under a self-imposed term-limit-pledge, but is planning a re-election bid.  However, if Tom Allen gets in the race and Collins’ broken promise becomes a major issue, with polling going strongly Allen’s way, it’s not inconceivable that Collins would step aside

3) Virginia’s John Warner: Publicly leans one way, then publicly leans the other – definitely considering retirement

4) Alaska’s Ted Stevens: Is 200 years old and threatens to retire every time he doesn’t get his way on a vote – claims to be preparing for a re-election bid, but we’ll see

5) Mississippi’s Thad Cochran: Publicly undecided on a re-election bid and says he may not make up his mind until November

6) Nebraska’s Chuck Hagel: Considering a White House bid, with rumors afoot that he may retire from the Senate regardless of a Presidential bid

7) Tennessee’s Lamar Alexander: Was considering retiring until he received choice committee assignments – still not publicly confirmed for re-election, though – if he dislikes serving in the minority enough, he may just hang it up

8) New Mexico’s Pete Domenici: not publicly committed to a re-election bid, as rumors of retirement thoughts persist, as well as rumors of a questionable mental state, including wandering the halls of Congress in his pajamas

9) North Carolina’s Elizabeth Dole: her staff has claimed that she’s planning on re-election, but she has not made any definitive comments; meanwhile, many factors, including her age, her horrible job as NRSC Chair, and her recent hip replacement, suggest that retirement may be a strong possibility – also, polling has the reluctant Mike Easley ahead of Dole; if he got in, maybe she’d prefer to avoid a tough re-election campaign

10) Texas’ John Cornyn: While he is very clearing planning a re-election bid, he is also one of Bush’s top choices (if not Bush’s first choice) for a Supreme Court opening should there be one more before the end of Bush’s term – granted, I’d rather have Cornyn in the Senate running for re-election than enjoying a lifetime seat on the Supreme Court

11) Oklahoma’s Jim Inhofe: Rumors exist that he is considering retirement, though this is a rare situation (perhaps akin to NJ’s Lautenberg) where the non-incumbent party might have an easier time beating the incumbent than a replacement (say former Governor Frank Keating)

12) Idaho’s Larry Craig: Another situation of more rumors circulating while Craig waits on a formal public announcement one way or the other

Running (or most likely running) for re-election: Saxby Chambliss (GA), Norm Coleman (MN), Mike Enzi (WY), Lindsey Graham (SC), Mitch McConnell (KY), Pat Roberts (KS), Jeff Sessions (AL), Gordon Smith (OR), John Sununu (NH)

Though only one retirement is announced, if the stars aligned well enough, the GOP could face a meltdown with more than a half-dozen retirements.  While we can’t hang our hats on that many open seats, we can probably expect a couple more to follow Wayne Allard.

By what margin will Bob Shamansky win?

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