ND-Sen, ND-AL: Huge Hoeven Leads; SSP Moves to ND-Sen to Likely R

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (1/11-13, likely voters, no trendlines):

Heidi Heitkamp (D): 34

John Hoeven (R): 55

Undecided: 11

Ed Schultz (D): 32

John Hoeven (R): 56

Undecided: 12

Jasper Schneider (D): 32

John Hoeven (R): 56

Undecided: 12

(MoE: ±4%)

Earl Pomeroy (D-inc): 46

Kevin Cramer (R): 24

Undecided: 30

Earl Pomeroy (D-inc): 47

Duane Sand (R): 22

Undecided: 31

(MoE: ±4%)

Republican Gov. John Hoeven seems to have an even clearer path to the Senate than he did against Byron Dorgan, now that it’s an open seat. He posts 20-point-plus leads against all of his opposition, including the likeliest Democrat to get the nod: former AG and 2000 gubernatorial candidate Heidi Heitkamp. We’re looking at a strongly Republican likely electorate here (with Barack Obama at 41/54 approval, and the Republican Party faring much better as a party than the Democrats (although still in crappy position, too): 39/53 for the GOP vs. 25/61 for the Dems). That means that performance is pretty much equal for all Dems, whether they’re well-known (Ed Schultz) or up-and-coming but unknown (North Dakota Rural Development Director Jasper Schneider). With that in mind, Swing State Project is moving this race to “Likely Republican.”

Hoeven may still be in for a bumpy ride, though, thanks to the same thing facing fellow level-headed midwestern Governor (and ‘stache wearer) Terry Branstad: bubbling-over anger on the teabagging right and mistrust of his establishment, insufficiently tax-averse ways. While the Tea Partiers don’t seem to have a particular primary opponent in mind, they’re adamant that Hoeven won’t be getting a free pass through the primary.

Democratic at-large Rep. Earl Pomeroy seems to have had the right idea in staying where he is, rather than going for the promotion. He’s looking fairly secure against the GOP opposition (although below the symbolic 50% mark), leading Public Service Commissioner Kevin Cramer (a statewide official, but one who’s lost twice to Pomeroy previously, and just announced today that he’s going back for a third try) and his 2008 opponent (and current Senate candidate, although he might want to drop down to get out of Hoeven’s way) Duane Sand by similar 20-point-plus margins. Insurance salesman Paul Schaffner is also in the GOP primary, and state Rep. Rick Berg and Fargo city commissioner Dave Piepkorn are also weighing the race.

RaceTracker Wiki: ND-Sen | ND-AL

SSP Daily Digest: 8/28

KY-Sen: Here’s a surprise; Mitch McConnell says he still won’t endorse in the GOP Senate primary, despite the presence of only one establishment candidate anymore (SoS Trey Grayson). Is he worried about drawing the wrath of the nationwide army of malfunctioning Paulbots? Anyway, even though he won’t endorse, he and 22 other GOP Senators are still planning to host a $500/person fundraiser in DC for Grayson in September.

LA-Sen: David Vitter dodged rumored challenges from Suzanne Terrell, Tony Perkins, and John Cooksey, but his luck may yet run out. Retired Lt. General Russel Honore, who has a high profile from his role in leading forces tasked with rescuing Katrina victims, says he’s leaning toward running in the GOP primary. Honore, a Creole African-American who lives near Baton Rouge, says he’s been a Republican since the Reagan era. A tough primary might be just what we need to soften up Vitter before loosing Charlie Melancon on him.

MA-Sen: The Massachusetts Secretary of State says that Gov. Deval Patrick has two choices as to the timing of the special election to fill Ted Kennedy’s seat: A Dec. 8 primary and a Jan. 19 general, or a Dec. 15 primary and a Jan. 26 general. (D)

NV-Sen: If this is meaningful, and not just cloud talk — that Harry Reid is going on record as saying health care reform must contain a public option, which moves us that much closer since (as best as I can tell) he’s the person with primary responsibility for how to merge the (good) HELP and (probably crappy) Finance Committee bills into one — we may have Danny Tarkanian and Susan Lowden to thank for passage of a public option. Facing suddenly perilous re-election prospects in the polls, Reid may be realizing that he’s going to need strong on-the-ground union support to stay in office in 2010, and that he’s not getting anything but tepid support from them without a decent reform package.

AR-Gov: There was a second phase to PPP’s Arkansas poll that showed Blanche Lincoln looking weak for re-election, with some details about the 2010 gubernatorial race. If there’s one governor in the country who doesn’t have much to worry about it, it’s Democrat Mike Beebe, who has 63/17 approvals and beats prospective GOP challenger state Rep. Allen Kerr 55-24.

AZ-Gov: Arizona’s Republican Gov. Jan Brewer, still getting her feet wet in the gube office, says that she’s “leaning toward” running for a full term in 2010. Despite having a rough time with the state legislator with her proposed tax increases, Brewer says that she “loves being governor, and I love campaigning”. (J)

GA-Gov: Rep. Nathan Deal doesn’t seem to be getting much traction in the Georgia Governor’s race, but now there are some nasty allegations out that may further dim whatever luster he once had. Apparently he intervened with Georgia state officials, lobbying them to preserve an obscure state program on inspection of rebuilt salvaged vehicles. Deal owns co-owns a salvage company that provides the location for these inspections, a company from which he personally earns up to $150,000 a year. Deal personally lobbied the state Revenue Commissioner against opening the program up to competitors instead of preserving his monopoly.

SC-Gov: State lawmakers are apparently getting ready to hold a special session of the legislature to impeach and remove Gov. Mark Sanford. Meanwhile, an Insider Advantage poll says 50% of South Carolinians think Sanford should resign. (D)

IA-05, IA-Gov: Rep. Steve King has ruled out a run for Governor and will run for re-election to the House again. While having been mentioned as a possible candidate earlier in the year, shortly after gay marriage was legalized in Iowa, he hadn’t shown much interest lately. Looks like it’s Terry Branstad (who’s still making up his mind) or bust for the Iowa GOP.

IL-14: Rotta the Huttlet Ethan Hastert won’t have the GOP primary to himself in his attempt to revenge the Hutt Hastert family name. Mark Vargas, a former Dept. of Defense official in Iraq, former Kane County Young Republicans chair, and briefly, an aide in the elder Hastert’s district office, said he’ll run too.

MT-AL: Best wishes for a speedy recovery for Rep. Denny Rehberg, who is listed in stable condition after being injured in a boating accident on Flathead Lake at some point between 10 pm and midnight last night.

NC-08: Republicans finally have a candidate to challenge freshman Democrat Larry Kissell this year, but it’s not anyone with a track record of electoral success. Retired Army Col. Lou Huddleston, who won 38% of the vote in an unsuccessful state House campaign last year, announced yesterday that he’ll seek the GOP nomination to challenge Kissell just a week after ex-Rep. Robin Hayes and former Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory passed on the race. Republicans seem to hope that Huddleston, who is African-American, will chip some support away from Kissell in the district’s sizable black community. Good luck with that. (J)

ND-AL: A Republican has stepped forward to take on entrenched Blue Dog Earl Pomeroy in North Dakota. Paul Schaffner currently is an insurance salesperson and has no electoral experience, but may have some residual name rec from his stints as football player at NDSU and assistant coach at local Jamestown College and Univ. of Mary.

NYC-Mayor: SurveyUSA has a new poll of the Democratic primaries in New York City, which closely match the Quinnipiac findings earlier this week. For the Dem nod in the mayoral race, Comptroller William Thompson leads city councilor Tony Avella, 48-13. Ex-Public Advocate and former mayoral candidate Mark Green has a big lead at 38% in the Public Advocate primary.  City councilor Melinda Katz leads the Comptroller field at 27%.