NY-Sen-B: Israel Set to Challenge Gillibrand?

A couple of slightly differing reports. The NY Post says:

Long Island Congressman Steve Israel will announce plans to challenge US Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand in next year’s Democratic primary as early as tomorrow, several sources said yesterday.

The Suffolk County Democrat, who was first elected to Congress in 2000 and is a member of the Appropriations Committee, told several members of the state’s congressional delegation of his plans to challenge Gillibrand late Friday, congressional sources revealed.

Glenn Thrush at the Politico says Israel will form an exploratory committee rather than launch a formal challenge. These days, that seems to be a distinction without a difference – I haven’t crunched any numbers, but it sure feels like many if not most prominent exploratory committees turn into the real thing. An Israel spokesman, though, is denying that there is any sort of announcement planned for this week.

Supposedly, Carolyn Maloney will soon create an exploratory committee, too. I imagine if one or both of these folks get in, Carolyn McCarthy will bow out, citing her desire to see someone younger challenge Gillibrand (she’s older than both Maloney and Israel). But if either Israel or Maloney are to have any chance, I can’t imagine Gillibrand would be beatable in a three-way race. Someone’s gonna have to give.

Meanwhile, Chuck Schumer, who was busy declaring the other day there would be no primary, is now supposedly backing off. David Paterson is also apparently staying out of things, though if I were Kirsten Gillibrand, I’m not sure I’d want him within a hundred yards of the campaign van. If anything, suggests a canny Maloney confidant, Gillibrand might be forced to support Paterson, since he is her recent patron, after all.

Anyhow, open seat fans & worry-warts: Obama pounded McCain 56-43 in Israel’s suburban Long Island district (NY-02), but its PVI nonetheless fell to D+4 from D+8. Given how Long Island has turned over the last fifteen years, the Dems would have an advantage in any open seat race here. McCarthy’s NY-04, at D+6, would be fairly similar. Maloney’s NY-14, however, would be a mortal lock for the Dems (D+26).

Congress 2008: time to decouple from the presidential race?

The spat between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama shows no sign of ending anytime soon.  McCain is going to win this election, likely by 6-10%.  Obama is damaged goods and Hillary’s negative are simply too high.  I believe voters are in the process of rejecting both candidates.

And I don’t think there’s a realistic way of getting through McCain’s huge teflon coating and getting swing voters to doudt his :maverick” image.

So how does this impact the Congressional elections?  Right now, not yet.  But it’s important that this long battle between Obama and Clinton could weaken the Democratic brand.  And I actually think Barack Obama would more of a drag on downballot races than Clinton would be.

I know that’s contrary to the CW, but I just don’t think Hillary Clinton is as radioactive to other Democrats.

So the leaders of the DSCC and DCCC have to make a decision.  How and when to separate from the presidential race?  And waht about the 527s who are about to pour millions in to a likely hopeless presidential election?  Will they save enough for House and Senate races?

So I’m ready to forget about the presidential election and concentrate on Congress.  Then, what’s the best way do this?

1.  The fundamental dynamics still favor Democrats.  We must still run on the economy, offering relief from the foreclosure crisis and ending giveaways.  I would like to see a united Democratic proposal on health care.

2.  Instead of just opposing Iraq, emphasize our opposition to Republicans’ “war-first” approach, and tie the current economic climate to this costly war on Iraq.

3.  Most importantly, we can’t run away from Democratic values and principles.  On most issues, the Democrats are still favored.

4.  More leadership needs to forthcoming, starting with the removal of Debbie Dubya from the Red-to-Blue Committee.  That’s an unconscionable conflict of interest.

Any other thoughts?  I know, writing off the Presidency is a huge step, but we may have to settle for winning enough seats in Congress to keep McCain in check (that’s another issue for another post).

Senate 2008 Retirement Watch

(From the diaries. – promoted by James L.)

(Cross-posted on my DKos diary.  I originally posted this to my blog on February 4, but I want to get the input of the DKos and SSP communities on the topic.  What have you heard in your states?  Note that since I posted this, Thad Cochran has delayed his retirement vs. re-election bid decision, and Pete Domenici has made stronger assertions toward a re-election bid.  Also, Frank Lautenberg has made his intentions crystal clear.)

We know that the numbers favor Senate Democrats in 2008.  21 GOP vs. 12 Democratic Senators up for re-election gives the GOP a great deal more territory to have to protect.  And, as hard as it can be to hold incumbent seats, it’s even harder to retain open seats.  This again favors the Democrats, as there are many more Republican Senators on “Retirement Watch.”

DSCC Chair Chuck Schumer has said that he has gotten assurances from every Democratic Senator that they are all running for re-election, except for Iowa’s Tom Harkin, who has since demonstrated public steps toward a re-election bid.

Aside from Harkin, I’m not sold that New Jersey’s Frank Lautenberg is definitely going to run for re-election, which might not be a bad thing given Lautenberg’s low approval ratings and NJ’s wealth of Democratic Congresspeople waiting for a promotion, not to mention that Lautenberg is the Democrats’ oldest 2008 incumbent by just over a decade.

Also, Delaware’s Joe Biden is looking at the White House, but is hardly a favorite to win the nomination in 2008, meaning that he will likely opt for Senate re-election and have plenty of time to do so.

This leaves only the recovering Tim Johnson of South Dakota as a significant question mark, and even his camp is showing signs, from staffing to fundraising, that a re-election bid could still be on the horizon, health-permitting.

Meanwhile, more than half of the GOP’s 21 incumbents are on the retirement watch spectrum.  After spending much of the last decade-plus in the majority party, many of these Senators will find that spending 2007 in the minority will make for a less pleasant work environment.  And with many states, like Colorado and Virginia, on a blue-trend, some Republican Senators may opt for retirement rather than risking ending their career on a loss.  Beyond that, many Republican Senators are just really old.

1) Colorado’s Wayne Allard: Definitely retiring

2) Maine’s Susan Collins: Is under a self-imposed term-limit-pledge, but is planning a re-election bid.  However, if Tom Allen gets in the race and Collins’ broken promise becomes a major issue, with polling going strongly Allen’s way, it’s not inconceivable that Collins would step aside

3) Virginia’s John Warner: Publicly leans one way, then publicly leans the other – definitely considering retirement

4) Alaska’s Ted Stevens: Is 200 years old and threatens to retire every time he doesn’t get his way on a vote – claims to be preparing for a re-election bid, but we’ll see

5) Mississippi’s Thad Cochran: Publicly undecided on a re-election bid and says he may not make up his mind until November

6) Nebraska’s Chuck Hagel: Considering a White House bid, with rumors afoot that he may retire from the Senate regardless of a Presidential bid

7) Tennessee’s Lamar Alexander: Was considering retiring until he received choice committee assignments – still not publicly confirmed for re-election, though – if he dislikes serving in the minority enough, he may just hang it up

8) New Mexico’s Pete Domenici: not publicly committed to a re-election bid, as rumors of retirement thoughts persist, as well as rumors of a questionable mental state, including wandering the halls of Congress in his pajamas

9) North Carolina’s Elizabeth Dole: her staff has claimed that she’s planning on re-election, but she has not made any definitive comments; meanwhile, many factors, including her age, her horrible job as NRSC Chair, and her recent hip replacement, suggest that retirement may be a strong possibility – also, polling has the reluctant Mike Easley ahead of Dole; if he got in, maybe she’d prefer to avoid a tough re-election campaign

10) Texas’ John Cornyn: While he is very clearing planning a re-election bid, he is also one of Bush’s top choices (if not Bush’s first choice) for a Supreme Court opening should there be one more before the end of Bush’s term – granted, I’d rather have Cornyn in the Senate running for re-election than enjoying a lifetime seat on the Supreme Court

11) Oklahoma’s Jim Inhofe: Rumors exist that he is considering retirement, though this is a rare situation (perhaps akin to NJ’s Lautenberg) where the non-incumbent party might have an easier time beating the incumbent than a replacement (say former Governor Frank Keating)

12) Idaho’s Larry Craig: Another situation of more rumors circulating while Craig waits on a formal public announcement one way or the other

Running (or most likely running) for re-election: Saxby Chambliss (GA), Norm Coleman (MN), Mike Enzi (WY), Lindsey Graham (SC), Mitch McConnell (KY), Pat Roberts (KS), Jeff Sessions (AL), Gordon Smith (OR), John Sununu (NH)

Though only one retirement is announced, if the stars aligned well enough, the GOP could face a meltdown with more than a half-dozen retirements.  While we can’t hang our hats on that many open seats, we can probably expect a couple more to follow Wayne Allard.

By what margin will Bob Shamansky win?

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