Tag: DSCC

In every cycle, the DSCC has a handful of targets that it aggressively focuses on, along with any Democratic Senators that might be deemed vulnerable.  However, there are also those races that escape the DSCC’s radar for a little while (or a long while) and are vehemently trumpeted by the netroots and grassroots.  My question is, in those cases of netroots and grassroots joining hands and backing a candidate, how effective do these efforts tend to be?  Or are there not enough examples, due to the young lifespan of the netroots, to really know for sure? 

We all point out (correctly, I might add, as many have praised these efforts, including DSCC Chair Schumer) that Jon Tester and Jim Webb were greatly benefited by the efforts of the netroots/grassroots – “people powered”-candidates, if you will.  So, if 2006 was a starting point, can these types of efforts be effectively spread out to several states?  How early do they need to begin and what tools are most useful in persuading a potential candidate to make the jump?  Or are draft movements even the best way to go about getting an attractive candidate in?  Also, in presidential years it seems that the most well-known possibilities in red states are very cautious about jumping in, so these movements seem to focus on less conventional nominees, am I correct in that observation?  I will run down what I believe to the DSCC’s current top priorities, races that have heir apparents upon the retirement of an incumbent, and then 7 races that I believe would benefit from a candidate in the mold of Senators Tester and Webb.

It seems that the DSCC has five definite targets, at this point in the cycle, although each race has different dynamics going on.

COLORADO – Mark Udall, who seems well on his way to a cleared primary.

MAINE – Tom Allen, is expected to announce shortly and will also have no serious opposition.

NEW HAMPSHIRE – Steve Marchand and Katrina Swett are already announced candidates but could defer if the DSCC is successful in getting Jeanne Shaheen to run.  Either way, this will remain a top pick-up opportunity.

MINNESOTA – Al Franken and Mike Ciresi are in, however, there remains the possibility of an announcement being made by a state legislator.

OREGON – Speaking of draft movements, a very well-known one is underway to convince Pete DeFazio to make the jump.  In the meantime, Steve Novick has announced and, if DeFazio declines, Earl Blumenauer will be the next to be courted by the DSCC.

Those five races seem to be DSCC targets and will probably remain among their top priorities throughout the cycle.

Then there are these next four seats that could possibly become open and, in that event, likely gain heavy attention from the DSCC.

VIRGINIA – Mark Warner has been making waves about getting in and John Warner has been making waves about getting out.

NEW MEXICO – Richardson will either be on the ticket or Sec. of State, Udall or Chavez seem to only jump if it’s indeed open, Homans seems intent on going after Wilson, but Madrid might make the jump.

NEBRASKA – If Hagel is out, Fahey seems to be in.  If Fahey declines, then expect a netroots-driven draft movement to get Scott Kleeb to run.

MISSISSIPPI – It seems a little less likely that Cochran will retire, but Mike Moore goes in if he does.

That leaves what I believe to be a group of seven states that have incumbents that might be more vulnerable than pundits seem to believe and are also ripe for “people powered”-candidates in the mold of a Tester or a Webb. In fact, many of these states already have draft movements underway.  In the other four, I’m seeking information on whether a draft movement would even work in those states and, if so, what potential candidates (but still realistic) would be able to knock off the incumbent.

1)  NORTH CAROLINA – Brad Miller.  A draft movement has been going on for months (led by blue south, I believe) and seems to be gaining much traction.  Miller has recently stated having serious interest in the race.

2)  ALABAMA – Ron Sparks.  Sparks was mentioned in Schumer’s advice thread at dKos and has been the center of much attention since.  He also has shown interest and will make an announcement,  regarding his decision, soon.

3)  TEXAS – Rick Noriega.  Also a subject of netroots support.  The Texas House is currently in session, so, understandably, no announcement is expected until after May, from any Texas legislators.

Then there are the four states that a populist candidate could make it a competitive election.

4)  OKLAHOMA – The big names (Henry, Edmondson, Boren) have been contacted and declined, for various reasons.  State Senator Andrew Rice would be a great prospect for a draft movement.  Are there any indications he’s open to it?

5)  TENNESSE – Bredesen either thinks he’s on someone’s VP list, or doesn’t want to leave his office open to the GOP Senate Pres.  If Ford doesn’t jump in, would there be any chance of persuading Nashville mayor Bill Purcell to get in?  Are there any other Tennessee Dems that have been under the radar, but would be great for this race?

6)  KENTUCKY – Any progress on the U.S. Senate race will probably have to wait until the gubernatorial primary is over.  Who do Kentuckians want to see in this race?  Is Owen really the assumed nominee?

7)  GEORGIA – After Saxby’s distasteful 02 campaign, it would seem that this race would be getting more attention.  Anyone heard of attorney Jim Butler’s plans?

Others:
IDAHO – Larry LaRocco is our nominee, whether Craig is the nominee or not.

ALASKA – I wish Mark Begich could be persuaded to make this race, even if just for the added benefits of higher name ID for the 2010 race against Lisa Murkowski.

WYOMING, KANSAS, and SOUTH CAROLINA – No clue on any of these three.  Trauner might go for a House rematch, Sebelius won’t go for it, and I have no real knowledge about SC politics, so there’s that, lol.

So, what say you?  Are the seven races I identified actual possibilities?  Are there potential candidates that have been showing any level of interest, not just being mentioned as pipe dreams?  I know that we should all be backing our candidates, even if they are already going to have the full-backing of the DSCC, but it seems that if the more “longshot” of races were the ones that the grassroots and netroots spent most of their attention on, that would benefit all involved and expand our playing field.

I know I haven’t said anything that hasn’t already been touched upon, but I am just really interested in how candidates are drafted into the tougher races and how much success such efforts are met with.

(Also, this is my first diary, so pardon the length and lack of proper editing skills, lol.)

[Cross posted at my blog, Senate 2008 Guru: Following the Races.]

Let’s revisit candidate filing for the 2006 cycle.  At this point in the 2006 cycle (i.e. April 1, 2005), 9 of the 28 listed Senate non-incumbent challengers had filed, or just about one-third.  At this point, the Republicans had seen Bob Corker, Mark Kennedy, and Tom Kean Jr. file.  The Democrats saw Amy Klobuchar, Bob Casey, and Sheldon Whitehouse file.  In other words, while there is lots of time left to recruit candidates and to see strong challengers file, both parties should have a couple promising candidates to point to at this point.

The Democrats, right now, can point to Mark Udall well-situated in Colorado for a pick-up.  In New Hampshire, Sprintin’ John Sununu lost in a hypothetical match-up to former Governor Jeanne Shaheen by 10 points, suggesting that she is the #1 potential recruit for the Democrats – though a spirited primary is underway with promising candidates.  In Minnesota, Al Franken went from being down 20 points in mid-February, right after announcing, to being only down 10 points a month later.  Mid-April polling will give us a fuller indication of the direction of this possible trend.  Additionally, strong candidates are considering races in Alabama, Maine, and Nebraska.  There is clearly still much work to be done as the year goes in, particularly in states like Kentucky, New Mexico, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Oregon, Tennessee, Texas, and Virginia if Democrats are to take full advantage of the political opportunities before them.

And how are the NRSC and the Republicans doing?  Well, not so good.  There are twelve Democratic incumbents and one open seat.  Let’s run through all thirteen potential battlegrounds, starting with the open seat.

Colorado (open seat): The CO-GOP just saw their top candidate back out of the race and back-ups like state AG Suthers have some conservatives less than enthused.  NRSC success or failure so far?  Failure.

Arkansas (Senator Mark Pryor): Just yesterday, it was reported that former Governor and Presidential candidate Mike Huckabee, perhaps the only candidate that a weakened AR-GOP could put up to make the race competitive, has ruled out a Senate challenge.  NRSC success or failure so far?  Failure.

Delaware (Senator Joe Biden): GOP Rep. Mike Castle is perhaps the only Republican who could offer even a somewhat challenging race against Biden, but he seems to have indicated, for yet another cycle, that he isn’t interested.  NRSC success or failure so far?  Failure.

Illinois (Senator Richard Durbin): The IL-GOP is reduced to begging wealthy conservatives to martyr themselves in a self-funded campaign to prevent Durbin from having a total cake-walk re-election.  NRSC success or failure so far?  Failure.

Iowa (Senator Tom Harkin): Right now, the IA-GOP Senate primary consists of two token candidates in tongue-tied conservative Steve Rathje and part-time tae kwon do instructor Bob McDowell.  Iowa’s several flawed Republican Congresspeople and former Congresspeople are all still biding their time.  NRSC success or failure so far?  Failure.

Louisiana (Senator Mary Landrieu): Senator Landrieu is supposed to be the most vulnerable Democratic incumbent.  Then how come nobody has stepped up to her yet?  Bobby Jindal seems to be the state’s most popular Republican.  But he is running for Governor, not Senate.  And against a statewide GOP officeholder and potential opponent, LA Sec. of State Jay Dardenne, Landrieu vastly exceeds expectations, winning 53-38, as some Republican Congresspeople take their names out of the running.  NRSC success or failure so far?  Failure.

Massachusetts (Senator John Kerry): There are two legitimate challengers (Harvard-Pilgrim CEO Charles Baker and former Governor Paul Cellucci) and one “spectacle” challenger (Red Sox pitcher Curt Schilling) that could make a race against Senator Kerry.  Baker and Schilling have taken their names out of the running and Cellucci has indicated no interest, particularly in endorsing Rudy Guiliani for President over former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney.  The rest of the MA-GOP is fairly irrelevant-to-nonexistant right now.  NRSC success or failure so far?  Failure.

Michigan (Senator Carl Levin): There hasn’t been a single substantial peep of noise from the MI-GOP regarding a Senate challenger; and speculation rests primarily (if not only) on the wives of former Michigan politicians.  In the words of police officers everywhere, “Nothing to see here, folks.”  NRSC success or failure so far?  Failure.

Montana (Senator Max Baucus): Despite the redness of Montana in Presidential races, the MT-Dems have had major successes including the races of Governor Brian Schweitzer and Senator Jon Tester, as well as significant shifts in the Montana state Legislature.  Also, Baucus is extremely popular in Montana.  The only candidate who could even give Baucus a challenge is GOP Rep. Denny Rehberg, who the NRSC must be courting like crazy, only to get zero sustained interest so far.  NRSC success or failure so far?  Failure.

New Jersey (Senator Frank Lautenberg): I expected the NJ-GOP to kick this potential race into gear early, but we’ve heard practically nothing from them.  Lautenberg’s relatively low approvals aren’t as big of a concern as they’d be in another state, as NJ-Dems can get (re-)elected with low approvals (see: 2006’s Menendez v. Kean Jr.).  And the NJ-GOP’s strongest potential candidate, U.S. Attorney Chris Christie, has taken himself out of the running, leaving, at best, a B-team for the NJ-GOP and NRSC to look at.  NRSC success or failure so far?  Failure.

Rhode Island (Senator Jack Reed): The RI-GOP has been even quieter than the MI-GOP.  In 2006, moderate-to-liberal Republican Lincoln Chafee got bounced primarily for having an R next to his name.  Reed is very popular and the RI-GOP bench is slim.  Again, “Nothing to see here.”  NRSC success or failure so far?  Failure.

South Dakota (Senator Tim Johnson): Senator Johnson is extremely popular and recovering from a serious health malady.  It is unclear how the SD-GOP will approach this race.  A political attack on Johnson while he is recovering could seriously backfire.  Meanwhile, it is unclear if Johnson will run for re-election or not, though indications are that he will, barring a health setback.  Had ultra-conservative Governor Mike Rounds gotten in the race early, he might have stood a chance, but now the SD-GOP and NRSC have to sit on their hands and wait.  NRSC success or failure so far?  Failure.

West Virginia (Senator Jay Rockefeller): The WV-GOP has been almost as quiet as the MI-GOP and RI-GOP.  At most, they have rumors, but not a single WV Republican has stepped forward, as they wait to see if GOP Rep. Shelley Moore Capito wants to take a shot.  As Capito and other WV Republicans expect this term to be Senator Robert Byrd’s last, they’ll likely wait out that seat for an open race than challenge Rockefeller.  NRSC success or failure so far?  Failure.

So there you go.  The Democrats certainly have some recruiting work to do in some key states, but they have also seen some early success with the ball rolling in other states.  Meanwhile, the NRSC is objectively a resounding 0-for-13 so far in challenges to open seats and Democratic-held seats.

(From the diaries. – promoted by James L.)

(Cross-posted on my DKos diary.  I originally posted this to my blog on February 4, but I want to get the input of the DKos and SSP communities on the topic.  What have you heard in your states?  Note that since I posted this, Thad Cochran has delayed his retirement vs. re-election bid decision, and Pete Domenici has made stronger assertions toward a re-election bid.  Also, Frank Lautenberg has made his intentions crystal clear.)

We know that the numbers favor Senate Democrats in 2008.  21 GOP vs. 12 Democratic Senators up for re-election gives the GOP a great deal more territory to have to protect.  And, as hard as it can be to hold incumbent seats, it’s even harder to retain open seats.  This again favors the Democrats, as there are many more Republican Senators on “Retirement Watch.”

DSCC Chair Chuck Schumer has said that he has gotten assurances from every Democratic Senator that they are all running for re-election, except for Iowa’s Tom Harkin, who has since demonstrated public steps toward a re-election bid.

Aside from Harkin, I’m not sold that New Jersey’s Frank Lautenberg is definitely going to run for re-election, which might not be a bad thing given Lautenberg’s low approval ratings and NJ’s wealth of Democratic Congresspeople waiting for a promotion, not to mention that Lautenberg is the Democrats’ oldest 2008 incumbent by just over a decade.

Also, Delaware’s Joe Biden is looking at the White House, but is hardly a favorite to win the nomination in 2008, meaning that he will likely opt for Senate re-election and have plenty of time to do so.

This leaves only the recovering Tim Johnson of South Dakota as a significant question mark, and even his camp is showing signs, from staffing to fundraising, that a re-election bid could still be on the horizon, health-permitting.

Meanwhile, more than half of the GOP’s 21 incumbents are on the retirement watch spectrum.  After spending much of the last decade-plus in the majority party, many of these Senators will find that spending 2007 in the minority will make for a less pleasant work environment.  And with many states, like Colorado and Virginia, on a blue-trend, some Republican Senators may opt for retirement rather than risking ending their career on a loss.  Beyond that, many Republican Senators are just really old.

1) Colorado’s Wayne Allard: Definitely retiring

2) Maine’s Susan Collins: Is under a self-imposed term-limit-pledge, but is planning a re-election bid.  However, if Tom Allen gets in the race and Collins’ broken promise becomes a major issue, with polling going strongly Allen’s way, it’s not inconceivable that Collins would step aside

3) Virginia’s John Warner: Publicly leans one way, then publicly leans the other – definitely considering retirement

4) Alaska’s Ted Stevens: Is 200 years old and threatens to retire every time he doesn’t get his way on a vote – claims to be preparing for a re-election bid, but we’ll see

5) Mississippi’s Thad Cochran: Publicly undecided on a re-election bid and says he may not make up his mind until November

6) Nebraska’s Chuck Hagel: Considering a White House bid, with rumors afoot that he may retire from the Senate regardless of a Presidential bid

7) Tennessee’s Lamar Alexander: Was considering retiring until he received choice committee assignments – still not publicly confirmed for re-election, though – if he dislikes serving in the minority enough, he may just hang it up

8) New Mexico’s Pete Domenici: not publicly committed to a re-election bid, as rumors of retirement thoughts persist, as well as rumors of a questionable mental state, including wandering the halls of Congress in his pajamas

9) North Carolina’s Elizabeth Dole: her staff has claimed that she’s planning on re-election, but she has not made any definitive comments; meanwhile, many factors, including her age, her horrible job as NRSC Chair, and her recent hip replacement, suggest that retirement may be a strong possibility – also, polling has the reluctant Mike Easley ahead of Dole; if he got in, maybe she’d prefer to avoid a tough re-election campaign

10) Texas’ John Cornyn: While he is very clearing planning a re-election bid, he is also one of Bush’s top choices (if not Bush’s first choice) for a Supreme Court opening should there be one more before the end of Bush’s term – granted, I’d rather have Cornyn in the Senate running for re-election than enjoying a lifetime seat on the Supreme Court

11) Oklahoma’s Jim Inhofe: Rumors exist that he is considering retirement, though this is a rare situation (perhaps akin to NJ’s Lautenberg) where the non-incumbent party might have an easier time beating the incumbent than a replacement (say former Governor Frank Keating)

12) Idaho’s Larry Craig: Another situation of more rumors circulating while Craig waits on a formal public announcement one way or the other

Running (or most likely running) for re-election: Saxby Chambliss (GA), Norm Coleman (MN), Mike Enzi (WY), Lindsey Graham (SC), Mitch McConnell (KY), Pat Roberts (KS), Jeff Sessions (AL), Gordon Smith (OR), John Sununu (NH)

Though only one retirement is announced, if the stars aligned well enough, the GOP could face a meltdown with more than a half-dozen retirements.  While we can’t hang our hats on that many open seats, we can probably expect a couple more to follow Wayne Allard.