NC-Sen: Elaine Marshall Set to Run

Things are starting to take shape in North Carolina; Elaine Marshall, the state’s Secretary of State and first woman elected to statewide office, looks like she will become the first top-tier Democratic challenger to Richard Burr.

Secretary of State Elaine Marshall filed paperwork Tuesday to create a campaign committee to run for the U.S. Senate next year.

“We’ll have a more formal announcement in the future,” said Thomas Mills, a consultant for Marshall. “We were feeling we just needed to get started in moving forward.”

Durham attorney Kenneth Lewis is the only announced Democratic candidate so far. Charismatic former state Senator Cal Cunningham seems likely to get in as well, while former Lt. Gov. Dennis Wicker and Rep. Bob Etheridge are still considering it.

SSP Daily Digest: 9/1

MA-Sen: Now we know the dates for the special election to fill the seat left behind by Ted Kennedy. Deval Patrick set the dates as Dec. 8 for the primary (which will be the real focus in this dark blue state) and Jan. 19 for the general. Meanwhile, while many possible contenders are waiting to see what Joe Kennedy II does, it looks like AG Martha Coakley (who has been sizing up a Senate run for years) isn’t wasting any time. One of her representatives picked up filing papers today.

FL-Sen: It shouldn’t be a surprise that Marco Rubio didn’t like Charlie Crist’s pick of George LeMieux as interim Senator, since approximately nobody liked it. Rubio takes to NRO to say he would have picked conservative Orlando-area state Sen. Dan Webster instead (who could still surface as a candidate in FL-08).

IL-Sen: Cheryle Jackson, president of Chicago’s Urban League, hasn’t gotten much attention yet in the Democratic primary. However, she just got several noteworthy endorsements, from Rep. Bobby Rush and the Cook County Democratic Women Organization.

NC-Sen: Maybe Rep. Bob Etheridge is moving toward a Senate run after all? He just launched a blistering salvo toward Richard Burr over health care reform in a DNC conference call today, attacking Burr’s “Patients Choice Act” counterproposal. Etheridge wouldn’t say anything about his intentions for 2010, though.

NY-Sen-B: Somehow the New York Post got the ball rolling on the idea of an Eliot Spitzer comeback, either with a run for Comptroller or even Kirsten Gillibrand’s Senate seat. Spitzer quickly acted today to dispel the idea.

SC-Sen: Democrats are back to the drawing board on a challenger for Jim DeMint. State Sen. Bradley Hutto had sounded very interested, but announced over the weekend that he won’t run. Lawyer and former Fritz Holling aide Ashley Cooper is about the only other credible name on tap.

NJ-Gov: The police department of Lambertville, NJ – the town where Chris Christie got seemingly preferential treatment after he was pulled over for speeding back in 2005 – says that their director is “no longer returning media calls.” Sketchy, huh? Christie’s varying tales about what exactly happened at that stop aren’t helping him, either. He’s now claiming that his identity as US Attorney only came up during the incident because the tow-truck driver recognized him. Shah, right. (D)

SC-Gov: Seems like Mark Sanford’s up to his 10th or 11th life already. After rumors that the legislature was ready to do a special session to impeach him, now the state GOP is saying it’s not ready to issue an ultimatum letter threatning impeachment (although they throw the door open to any lawmakers wanting to draft the legislation individually).

MO-04: It’s not unusual for a challenger to have nice things he said about an incumbent thrown back in his face. But this is kind of an extreme case: GOP state Sen. Bill Stouffer, chasing 33-year Rep. Ike Skelton in the 4th, has not only called Skelton “an outstanding advocate for the people of west-central Missouri and the state as a whole” but said it while sponsoring legislation to name a bridge after Skelton.

NY-19: Republican Assemblyman Greg Ball continues to impress, well, at least Pete Sessions; he just got named to the “On the Radar” part of the NRCC’s “Young Guns” program. He’s running against sophomore Rep. John Hall in this R+3 district.

NY-23: Looks like Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman is gaining some traction, seeing as Republican nominee Dede Scozzafava has started attacking him in the press. This could bode well for Democrat Bill Owens – back in 2004, in a state Senate race in the same part of New York, Dem David Valesky snuck through with a narrow win after a Conservative candidate helped split the right-wing vote in the district. (D)

WI-05: Best wishes for a speedy recovery for Wisconsin’s Rep. Jim Sensenbrenner, who has been diagnosed with treatable, early stage prostate cancer.

NC-Sen, NC-02: Etheridge Taking Another Look at Senate Race

Democratic Rep. Bob Etheridge has been mentioned as a possible Senate candidate since Attorney General Roy Cooper passed on the race, but he never appeared to show much interest in challenging Richard Burr. It looks like he’s giving the race a closer look after being pressed by the DSCC in recent days. From the News & Observer:

Democratic U.S. Rep. Bob Etheridge said today that he is giving some thought to running against Republican Sen. Richard Burr next year.

Etheridge, a Lillington Democrat, said he has been courted by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee as a potential candidate, reports Rob Christensen.

“I’m evaluating it,” Etheridge said during a meeting Wednesday with reporters and editors at The News & Observer.

Etheridge said he met recently with Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, and had discussions with family members and a few key supporters. Etheridge said he hoped to make a decision by September.

Etheridge would be a pretty decent candidate for this race, though I wouldn’t relish defending his open R+2 seat — especially if the wind is blowing against us next year. Obama did actually carry Etheridge’s district by a 52-47 margin according to SSP’s Prez-by-CD analysis, but Bush won the district by eight points in 2004 and seven points when Al Gore was on the ballot.

Etheridge has a bit of money in the kitty — just shy of $900K — and has the potential to raise a bunch more from his perch on Ways and Means. This seems to be a top concern for the DSCC, as the organization hasn’t been rushing to embrace the potential candidacy of NC SoS Elaine Marshall, perhaps in part due to her fundraising difficulties during her last Senate primary campaign.

RaceTracker Wiki: NC-Sen

SSP Daily Digest: 5/19

AL-07: Former Selma Mayor James Perkins (who was defeated in his attempt to seek a third term in 2008) is jumping into the open seat race here. He is likely to draw support away from Terri Sewell, Artur Davis’s preferred successor, also a Selma native.

AL-Gov: Speaking of good ol’ Artur, he’s released an internal poll which shows him up 56-26 over Ron Sparks and 54-25 over Sue Bell in the Dem primary. He also purports to lead Republican Bradley Byrne by a 43-38 margin. I’m finding it hard to believe that a congressman has such high name rec (59-6 for Davis among Dems statewide!). But the best checksum: This survey has Obama’s favorables at 58%. Last month, SUSA had them at just 48%. Which do you think is more likely? In other AL-Gov news, state Sen. Roger Bedford (D) says he won’t run.

IA-Gov: State Auditor David Vaudt, one of only two Republicans holding statewide office in Iowa, has declined to challenge incumbent Gov. Chet Culver next year.

NC-Sen: Both Reps. Bob Etheridge and Mike McIntyre are leaving the door open to a Senate bid, with McIntyre sounding more enthused. Meanwhile, Lt. Gov. Walter Dalton is “not considering” the race, Raleigh Mayor Charles Meeker is “not looking at running,” and state Rep. Grier Martin claims his “decision to decline a chance to run against Elizabeth Dole was also not to run in 2010.”

NV-Gov: Jim Gibbons’ poll numbers are just horrendous – in a new Mason-Dixon survey for the Las Vegas Review-Journal, 54% say they would “definitely vote to replace” him. Gibbons’ campaign manager claims things are lookin’ up, because his boss’s approvals were 25-69 in a January Reno Gazette poll but are an awesome 17-52 in this one.

NV-Sen: Meanwhile, the same poll finds pretty lousy numbers for Harry Reid as well, but better than Gibbons’. Reid gets 45% “definitely replace,” but his approvals are “only” 38-50. The big difference, of course, is that the GOP doesn’t really have any strong candidates to challenge Reid, while plenty of folks are lining up to take a whack at Gibbons.

FL-CFO: Checking in with an old friend, it looks like Annette Taddeo is considering a run to replace Alex Sink as Florida’s Chief Financial Officer.

Redistricting: CQ has a story on five key races that could affect congressional redistricting. Roll Call has published the second half of its two-part series on the same subject (part one here). And finally, the National Conference of State Legislatures is holding the first in a series of training seminars on redistricting in San Francisco, June 11-14.

NC-Sen: DSCC Looking at Four Potential Recruits

With Roy Cooper out of the running for the Democratic nomination against GOP non-entity Richard Burr, CNN reports that the DSCC is putting out feelers to four potential candidates — including one who previously passed on the race:

Still, the DSCC – which is otherwise staying mum on the recruitment process – is taking four Democratic candidates seriously at the moment, according to a committee source.

Their top candidates are, in no particular order: Rep. Heath Shuler, the former NFL quarterback and second term congressman from western North Carolina’s 11th district; Rep. Bob Etheridge from the Raleigh-area second district; former state Treasurer Richard Moore, who lost in the state’s Democratic gubernatorial primary last year; and Lt. Gov. Walter Dalton.

Shuler, who declined to run for this race back in March, has been receiving encouragement to reconsider the race from Dem groups in DC and North Carolina, according to a spokesperson.

Aside from Shuler, who brings a unique strength in western NC to a hypothetical race, the DSCC appears to looking at candidates with a statewide track record first, and they have a lot to choose from here. Dalton, a former state senator, won the Lt. Governor’s race by a five-point margin in 2008, while Etheridge served for two terms as NC’s Superintendent of Public Instruction from 1988-1996. (Additionally, Etheridge’s Raleigh-area district, which Obama carried last fall, would be an easier hold for Democrats than Shuler’s or Mike McIntyre’s seats.) However, Etheridge is getting a bit long in the tooth for someone looking to join the Senate — he’ll be 69 years old by election day in 2010.

For more details on the long list of potential nominees, the Winston-Salem Journal has a brief rundown on the DSCC’s top four choices and many other possible recruits.

(H/T: Political Wire)

NC-SEN: Dole Vulnerable Against Etheridge

North Carolina Senator Elizabeth Dole is still showing vulnerability in recent polls, even if her opponent in not Mike Easley. A new poll has Dole leading 45-30 against Congressman Bob Etheridge.

A new poll out Wednesday has Republican U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Dole dominating a hypothetical race against Democratic U.S. Rep. Bob Etheridge, but the numbers expose a few weaknesses for the incumbent senator, the poll’s author said.

Dole, of Salisbury, has been dogged by rumors about whether she will run in 2008, especially in the wake of a catastrophic outcome for Senate Republicans after her term as chairwoman of the National Republican Senatorial Campaign.

Dole says she’s running.

The poll, by Public Policy Polling, shows Dole running ahead of Etheridge, 45 percent to 30 percent, among likely voters.

But Dean Debnam, president of the company, pointed out that Dole enjoys more name recognition than Etheridge, a Lillington congressman known mostly in his district south and east of the Triangle.

“Dole is not necessarily in a very strong position,” Debnam said.

Etheridge’s name has been floated in the past as a possible senatorial candidate. His spokeswoman said Wednesday he isn’t planning a Senate run in 2008.

“Right now his focus is on working on his committees on issues important to North Carolina,” said spokeswoman Joanne Peters.

Dole political consultant Mark Stephens disputed the accuracy of the poll, which was conducted through automatic phone calls. Respondents signaled their choices by punching numbers on the phone.

“I don’t know a campaign worth its salt that would utilize this kind of polling,” Stephens said. “They don’t even know who they’re talking to on the other end of the phone. It could be a 12-year-old kid.”

Debnam said the polling group will pit other hypothetical candidates, perhaps including U.S. Rep. Brad Miller of Raleigh, against Dole in future polls.

A poll by the group last month showed Gov. Mike Easley beating Dole by 44 percent to 41 percent.

The Dole-Etheridge poll was conducted Monday by automatic phone calls of 448 likely voters. The survey’s margin of sampling error is plus or minus 4.6 percentage points.

Granted, the sample size is small, but it mirrors similar problems she is having in a hypothetical match-up against former Gov. Easley, who has thus far declined to run. Some will also point to Jesse Helms who constantly polled terribly but won elections. But I would argue that Dole does not command the rabid loyalty that Helms did. She’s clearly vulnerable and we need to keep up the pressure.