SSP Daily Digest: 10/26 (Morning Edition)

  • AZ-Sen, AZ-Gov (Public Policy Polling for Daily Kos): Rodney Glassman (D) 38, John McCain 56; Terry Goddard (D) 44, Jan Brewer (R-inc) 52
  • GA-Sen, GA-Gov (Landmark Communications): Michael Thurmond (D) 35, Johnny Isakson (R-inc) 56; Roy Barnes (D) 39, Nathan Deal (R) 47
  • GA-Sen, GA-Gov (SurveyUSA): Michael Thurmond (D) 34, Johnny Isakson (R-inc) 58; Roy Barnes (D) 39, Nathan Deal (R) 49
  • HI-Gov (Ward Research): Neil Abercrombie (D) 51, Duke Aiona (R) 43
  • HI-01 (Ward Research): Colleen Hanabusa (D) 45, Charles Djou (R-inc) 48
  • IN-Sen (EPIC/MRA): Brad Ellsworth (D) 35, Dan Coats (R) 53
  • LA-Sen (Magellan): Charlie Melancon (D) 35, David Vitter (R-inc) 52
  • MA-04, MA-10 (UNH for the Boston Globe): Barney Frank (D-inc) 46, Sean Bielat (R) 33; Bill Keating (D) 37, Jeff Perry (R) 33
  • MD-01 (OpinionWorks for the Baltimore Sun): Frank Kratovil (D-inc) 40, Andy Harris (R) 40
  • MD-Gov (Abt SRBI for the Washington Post): Martin O’Malley (D-inc) 54, Bob Ehrlich (R) 40
  • MI-01 (EPIC/MRA): Gary McDowell (D) 40, Dan Benishek (R) 42
  • MI-03 (Public Opinion Strategies (R) for Justin Amash): Pat Miles (D) 30, Justin Amash (R) 49
  • MN-Gov (St. Cloud State University): Mark Dayton (D) 40, Tom Emmer (R) 30, Tom Horner (I) 19
  • NE-02 (Wiese Research): Tom White (D) 39, Lee Terry (R-inc) 44
  • NY-Sen-B (PDF) (Marist): Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc) 56, Joe DioGuardi (R) 38
  • OH-Gov (U. Cincinnati for Ohio media): Ted Strickland (D-inc) 47, John Kasich (R) 49
  • OR-Gov (Elway Research): John Kitzhaber (D) 45, Chris Dudley (R) 44
  • OR-01, OR-05 (Elway Research): David Wu (D-inc) 51, Rob Cornilles (R) 38; Kurt Schrader (D-inc) 50, Scott Bruun (R) 38
  • SC-Gov (Insider Advantage): Vincent Sheheen (D) 37, Nikki Haley (R) 51
  • SD-AL (Mason-Dixon): Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D-inc) 43, Kristi Noem (R) 45
  • SD-AL (Nielson Brothers): Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D-inc) 42, Kristi Noem (R) 40
  • TX-Gov (University of Texas): Bill White (D) 40, Rick Perry (R-inc) 50
  • Bonus: UT also tested a wide range of down-ballot races.

  • VA-02 (Christopher Newport University): Glenn Nye (D-inc) 41, Scott Rigell (R) 42
  • Margins & Errors: The DSCC supposedly has some internal with Alexi Giannoulias up 2 in IL-Sen, but this is some NRCC-style crap with no details other than the toplines… Some MI-Gov poll shows that the race still sucks… Frank Guinta is touting an internal in NH-01 that supposedly has him up 53-37, but there isn’t even word of the pollster’s name

    SSP Daily Digest: 10/22 (Morning Edition)

  • AR-Sen (Mason-Dixon): Blanche Lincoln (D-inc) 34, John Boozman (R) 55
  • CA-Sen (Tarrance Group for NRSC): Barbara Boxer (D-inc) 44, Carly Fiorina (R) 44
  • CT-Sen, CT-Gov (PDF) (Suffolk): Richard Blumenthal (D) 57, Linda McMahon (R) 39; Dan Malloy (D) 49, Tom Foley (R) 38 (PDF of crosstabs)
  • Rather unusually, Suffolk included Blumenthal & Malloy twice in their head-to-head questions: once as the Dem candidate, and once as the Working Families Party candidate. Each got about 3-4% as the WFP candidate. I’ve never seen a pollster do this in New York, where the practice of fusion voting is best known.

  • IL-Gov (PPP): Pat Quinn (D-inc) 41 (35), Bill Brady (R) 42 (42)
  • FL-22 (Susquehanna for Sunshine State News): Ron Klein (D-inc) 44, Allen West (R) 47
  • MA-04 (Fleming & Associates for WPRI): Barney Frank (D-inc) 49, Sean Bielat (R) 37
  • MD-01 (Monmouth): Frank Kratovil (D-inc) 42, Andy Harris (R) 53
  • MI-03 (EPIC/MRA): Pat Miles (D) 37, Justin Amash (R) 46
  • MN-01 (Grove Insight (D) for Project New West): Tim Walz (D-inc) 50, Randy Demmer (R) 34
  • MS-04 (Tarrance Group (R) for Steven Palazzo): Gene Taylor (D-inc) 41, Steven Palazzo (R) 43
  • NC-11 (Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (D) for DCCC): Heath Shuler (D-inc) 54, Jeff Miller 39
  • NM-02 (Tarrance Group (R) for Steve Pearce): Harry Teague (D-inc) 41, Steve Pearce (R) 50
  • NY-20 (Public Opinion Strategies (R) for Chris Gibson): Scott Murphy (D-inc) 42, Chris Gibson 44
  • OR-05 (SurveyUSA for KATU-TV): Kurt Schrader (D-inc) 41, Scott Bruun (R) 51
  • Note: Among the 10% who have already voted, Schrader leads 47-46. This continues a pattern we’ve seen in other SUSA polls (and also some, but not all, of the early voting numbers by party registration).

  • PA-06 (Monmouth): Manan Trivedi (D) 44, Jim Gerlach (R-inc) 54
  • PA-17 (Susquehanna for ABC27 News): Tim Holden (D-inc) 58, Justin Argall (R) 28
  • TX-23 (OnMessage (R) for Quico Canseco): Ciro Rodriguez (D-inc) 39, Quico Canseco (R) 45
  • VA-02 (PDF) (Public Opinion Strategies (R) for Scott Rigell): Glenn Nye (D-inc) 41, Scott Rigell 46 (R)
  • VA-05 (Benenson Strategy Group (D) for Tom Perriello): Tom Perriello (D-inc) 46, Rob Hurt (R) 47
  • WA-08 (SurveyUSA for KING-TV): Suzan DelBene (D) 45 (45), Dave Reichert (R-inc) 52 (52)
  • SSP Daily Digest: 10/19 (Morning Edition)

    What better way to celebrate SSP’s seventh birthday than to give you another firehose blast of polls?

    AL-02: Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (D) for the DCCC (10/9-12, likely voters, 9/26-28 in parens):

    Bobby Bright (D-inc): 51 (52)

    Martha Roby (R): 39 (43)

    (MoE: ±4.9%)

    AR-01: Anzalone Liszt for the DCCC (10/11-13, likely voters, 9/13-16 in parens):

    Chad Causey (D): 44 (46)

    Rick Crawford (R): 42 (44)

    (MoE: ±4.9%)

    AR-01: Talk Business Research and Hendrix College (PDF) (10/14, likely voters, 8/17 in parens):

    Chad Causey (D): 34 (32)

    Rick Crawford (R): 42 (48)

    Ken Adler (G): 4 (4)

    Undecided: 20 (20)

    (MoE: ±4.7%)

    AR-02: Talk Business Research and Hendrix College (PDF) (10/14, likely voters, 8/17 in parens):

    Joyce Elliott (D): 38 (35)

    Tim Griffin (R): 50 (52)

    Lance Levi (I): 3 (3)

    Lewis Kennedy (G): 3 (1)

    Undecided: 7 (9)

    (MoE: ±4.6%)

    AR-03: Talk Business Research and Hendrix College (PDF) (10/14, likely voters, 8/25 in parens):

    David Whitaker (D): 21 (31)

    Steve Womack (R): 59 (55)

    Undecided: 20 (14)

    (MoE: ±4.2%)

    AR-04: Talk Business Research and Hendrix College (PDF) (10/14, likely voters, 8/25-26 in parens):

    Mike Ross (D-inc): 52 (49)

    Beth Anne Rankin (R): 34 (31)

    Joshua Drake (G): 3 (4)

    Undecided: 11 (16)

    (MoE: ±4.2%)

    CA-47: Public Opinion Strategies (R) for Van Tran (10/13-14, likely voters, no trendlines):

    Loretta Sanchez (D-inc): 39

    Van Tran (R): 39

    Ceci Iglesias (I): 5

    Undecided: 17

    (MoE: ±5.7%)

    FL-Sen: Suffolk (10/14-17, likely voters, no trendlines):

    Kendrick Meek (D): 22

    Marco Rubio (R): 39

    Charlie Crist (I): 31

    Undecided: 6

    (MoE: ±4.4%)

    FL-Gov: Suffolk (10/14-17, likely voters, no trendlines):

    Alex Sink (D): 45

    Rick Scott (R): 38

    Undecided: 13

    (MoE: ±4.4%)

    Misc.: In the AG race, Pam Bondi (R) leads Dan Gelber (D), 38-30. Also, a poll by Voter Survey Service (aka Susquehanna) for the right-wing Sunshine State News site has Adam Putnam (R) leading Scott Maddox (D) in the Ag Comm’r race, 40-35. Tea Party candidate Ira Chester takes 14%.

    MA-Gov: Public Opinion Strategies (R) for Charlie Baker (10/11-13, likely voters, no trendlines):

    Deval Patrick (D-inc): 35

    Charlie Baker (R): 42

    Tim Cahill (I): 10

    (MoE: ±3.5%)

    MA-10: MassINC Polling Group for WGBH (10/13-15, likely voters incl. leaners, no trendlines):

    William Keating (D): 46

    Jeffrey Perry (R): 43

    Other: 5

    Undecided: 4

    (MoE: ±4.9%)

    MI-Gov: Foster McCollum White and Baydoun Consulting (D) (PDF) (10/7, likely voters, no trendlines):

    Virg Bernero (D): 37

    Rick Snyder: 50

    Undecided: 13

    (MoE: ±2.1%)

    MO-Sen: Public Policy Polling (D) (PDF) for Robin Carnahan (10/17-18, likely voters, 8/14-15 in parens):

    Robin Carnahan (D): 41 (38)

    Roy Blunt (R): 46 (45)

    Jerry Beck (C): 3 (5)

    Jonathan Dine (L): 3 (3)

    Undecided: 7 (9)

    (MoE: ±3.9%)

    NM-Gov: SurveyUSA for KOB-TV (10/12-14, likely voters, 5/23-25 in parens)

    Diane Denish (D): 42 (43)

    Susana Martinez (R): 54 (49)

    Undecided: 4 (8)

    (MoE: ±3.9%)

    Note: Among the 13% of respondents who say they have already voted, Martinez has a 60-36 lead.

    NY-25: Siena (10/10-12, likely voters, no trendlines):

    Dan Maffei (D-inc): 51

    Ann Marie Buerkle (R): 39

    Undecided: 10

    (MoE: ±3.9%)

    Note: Maggie Haberman tweets that Karl Rove’s American Crossroads plans to get involved here.

    NY-Gov: New York Times (PDF) (10/10-15, likely voters, no trendlines):

    Andrew Cuomo (D): 59

    Carl Paladino (R): 24

    Undecided: 12

    (MoE: ±3%)

    OR-04: Grove Insight (D) for Peter DeFazio (10/11-12, likely voters, no trendlines):

    Peter DeFazio (D-inc): 53

    Art Robinson (R): 39

    (MoE: ±4.9%)

    OR-05: Moore Information (R) for Scott Bruun (10/13-14, likely voters, no trendlines):

    Kurt Schrader (D-inc): 40

    Scott Bruun: 44

    (MoE: ±5.7%)

    PA-15: Muhlenberg (PDF) (10/5-13, likely voters, 9/11-16 in parens):

    John Callahan (D): 32 (38)

    Charlie Dent (R-inc): 49 (49)

    Jake Towne (I): 5 (3)

    Undecided: 13 (10)

    (MoE: ±5%)

    UT-Gov: Dan Jones & Associates for the Deseret News/KSL-TV (10/11-14, “active voters,” 10/7-13 in parens):

    Peter Corroon (D): 33 (31)

    Gary Herbert (R-inc): 58 (52)

    Undecided: 6 (13)

    (MoE: ±4%)

    Note: The Deseret News says that Dan Jones has also done polling for Herbert. Should we be regarding them as an (R) pollster?

    UT-Gov: UtahPolicy.com/Western Wats (9/30-10/3, likely voters, no trendlines):

    Peter Corroon (D): 27

    Gary Herbert (R-inc): 58

    Undecided: 12

    (MoE: ±4%)

    Note: Dan Jones also has UT-Sen numbers. UtahPolicy.com also has UT-Sen, UT-01, and UT-03 numbers.

    VA-05: Roanoke College (10/5-14, likely voters, no trendlines):

    Tom Perriello (D-inc): 40

    Rob Hurt (R): 46

    Jeffrey Clark (I): 1

    Undecided: 13

    (MoE: ±4.1%)

    WI-Gov: St. Norbert College (PDF) for Wisconsin Public Radio (10/12-15, likely voters, 3/23-31 in parens):

    Tom Barrett (D): 41 (28)

    Scott Walker (R): 50 (44)

    Undecided: 6 (17)

    (MoE: ±5%)

    Margins & Errors: The Fix publishes an alleged WA-Sen poll without either field dates or sample size… Bill Kristol (yeah, that Bill Kristol) claims he has his hands on an OH-10 poll – he has the n, but won’t say the pollster’s name, who paid for the poll, or when it was taken… Pollster.com has a PDF from ccAdvertising with numbers for WV-Sen, WV-01, and WV-03 – but not only does ccA report to hundredths of a percent, they get taken to the woodshed by Mark Blumenthal for refusing to divulge the poll’s sponsor

    SSP Daily Digest: 10/12 (Morning Edition)

  • AK-Sen: Joe Miller is taking a vow of omertà, insisting that he simply won’t answer any more questions about his personal background. He’s also taking a page right out of the Sarah Palin playbook, whining that he’s been the victim of “journalist impropriety,” and making up stories about reporters gaining access to his “confidential file,” in “violation of the law.” I despairingly think that Miller won’t pay the price for this that he ought to – look at Rick Perry, who refuses to meet with newspaper editorial boards, as an example.
  • Also of note: Miller is trying to unring that Seventeenther bell a bit – but not really. His stance now is that a constitutional amendment to eliminate the direct election of senators is not “practical,” but sure sounds like he’d love to do it if he could. What a weirdo.

  • NV-Sen: Clinton alert! The Big Dog will be in Nevada today to campaign with Harry Reid.
  • WV-Sen: Clinton alert (retroactive)! Bill Clinton was in Morgantown yesterday, campaigning for Joe Manchin. He made a point of saying that the “hick-y” ad “burns me up.”
  • KS-Gov: This creeptastic story is finally getting some play in the Kansas gubernatorial race. Back around 2002 or so, Sam Brownback was roommates in Washington, DC with a radical cleric named Lou Engle. You might remember Engle as the Talibangelist who led a “prayer” rally in Uganda right when the country was debating passage of a bill which would have implemented the death penalty for homosexuals. Though he later tried to distance himself from the measure, at the time, Engle “praised the country’s ‘courage’ and ‘righteousness’ in promoting the bill. In the past, Engle has also donated to Brownback’s campaigns, and Brownback has done events with him as recently as last year. Seemingly caught off-guard by all this, the Brownback campaign had no statement in response.
  • NY-Gov: When you’ve lost Rudy Giuliani… His Dingusness attacked fellow Republican Carl Paladino over his anti-gay remarks, calling them “highly offensive” and saying Paladino should apologize. Not really sure what Rudy’s angle is here, though.
  • TN-Gov: Republican gubernatorial nominee Bill Haslam poured in another $2.8 million of his own money in the third quarter, for $4.3 mil total. He’s also raised a pretty amazing $12.5 million from outside donors, all told; combined, this apparently makes for a new Tennessee record. (Recall that Haslam had a very competitive GOP primary.) Dem Mike McWherter hasn’t released 3Q nums yet, but he’s raised just a fraction of what Haslam has.
  • FL-22: Barack Obama did a fundraiser last night at the home of former NBA great Alonzo Mourning (which we mentioned to you back in SSP Amazing Digest #88). The event raised a million bucks, split between the Ron Klein campaign and the DNC. In attendance were Miami Heat players Chris Bosh and Dwayne Wade (but not LeBron James), as well as Magic Johnson.
  • ME-02: Looks like Jason Levesque is going to have to beg his mom for rides to campaign rallies: the Republican just got his license suspended, after three speeding convictions in the past year. Lifetime, he has 18 driving-related convictions (including nine for speeding), and his licenses has been suspended three times.
  • NV-03: Joe Heck has a serious problem wrapped around his neck like a twenty-pound goiter. It’s called Sharron Angle, and he just doesn’t know what do with it. When asked directly by a voter whether he planned to vote for his own party’s senate nominee, Heck responded: “I’m waiting to see all of the evidence before I make my choice.”
  • NY-01: Biden alert! The VPOTUS is coming to NYC to do a fundraiser for Tim Bishop on Oct. 26th. Seems awfully late in the game to be raising scratch, but I suppose a Biden event is such a sure thing that Bishop can max out the campaign credit cards against the expected take.
  • OH-09: As he watches his candidacy circle the drain, Rich Iott lashed out at the top-ranking Jewish Republican in the Milky Way, Eric Cantor, who had repudiated him a day earlier:
  • “I think that Representative Cantor did what so many career politicians do. He reacted before he had all the facts. He didn’t know the whole story. He didn’t understand what historical reenacting is all about, or the education side of it. And he just made a decision without all the facts. My opponent here is cut out of the same cloth. Those are the people who passed the health care bill before they knew what was in it. The same folks who passed the stimulus bill….”

    Because comparing the minority whip to Democrats is a good idea for a Republican candidate with a future, right? Anyhow, for those of you who perhaps wanted to hold out hope that Iott was just some weird LARPer (but I repeat myself), please review this paragraph taken from the website of his fellow Nazi re-enactors:

    Nazi Germany had no problem in recruiting the multitudes of volunteers willing to lay down their lives to ensure a “New and Free Europe”, free of the threat of Communism. National Socialism was seen by many in Holland, Denmark, Norway, Finland, and other eastern European and Balkan countries as the protector of personal freedom and their very way of life, despite the true underlying totalitarian (and quite twisted, in most cases) nature of the movement. Regardless, thousands upon thousands of valiant men died defending their respective countries in the name of a better tomorrow. We salute these idealists; no matter how unsavory the Nazi government was, the front-line soldiers of the Waffen-SS (in particular the foreign volunteers) gave their lives for their loved ones and a basic desire to be free.

  • OR-04: There’s no direct quote here, but the Douglas County News-Review reports that Rep. Peter DeFazio “says he favors replacing Pelosi as speaker if Democrats retain their majority.” DeFazio has long had an antagonistic relationship with Pelosi, most recently coming to a head with his refusal to vote for the stimulus, allegedly from the left.
  • OR-05: These Republicans have no respect for Godwin’s Law, do they? Speaking of the healthcare reform bill, Scott Bruun said:
  • “From a social perspective, it’s right up there, I would argue – probably the fugitive slave law was worse. But still, the healthcare bill was pretty darn bad.”

    The Fugitive Slave Act, which “required any runaway slaves who had escaped their bondage and were living free in the Northern states be returned to their owners” – and was one of the causes of the Civil War. Right on!

  • PA-03, PA-12: Biden alert (retroactive)! The VPOTUS did a fundraiser in Pittsburgh with both Reps. Kathy Dahlkemper and Mark Critz in attendance. The Hill makes a big deal out of the fact that this event didn’t take place in Critz’s district – but I’m just going to guess that there are a lot more wealthy Dems in the P’burgh area than in the 12th CD.
  • PA-06: Can an internal ever be too good? Well, you tell me if you believe this Susquehanna survey that Jim Gerlach is touting, which has him up by a massive 61-31 spread. Still, now would be a good time for Manan Trivedi or the DCCC to show us something different.
  • PA-11: If Paul Kanjorski somehow, improbably, survives once more, he will owe his fortune yet again to the realtors, who have already spent three-quarters of a million on ads on his behalf, after spending a million bucks last time.
  • Polltopia: Time to help PPP pick their next state to poll.
  • SSP TV:

    • FL-Gov: In a move we’ve seen a few times this cycle, Alex Sink is trying out the long-form political ad, this time with a 2-minute spot detailing Rick Scott’s Medicare fraud and his attempts to hide from it
    • WA-08: In her third ad, Suzan DelBene hits Reichert on raising taxes & shipping jobs overseas

    Independent Expenditures:

    • AFSCME: Throws down $750K against Republican roofer Reid Ribble (WI-08) and $628K against GOPer Mike Fitzpatrick (PA-08)
    • NRA: Almost $3 million in senate buys (here & here)
    • NRCC: Huge $8.25 million buy
    • Realtors: CA-18 (for Dennis Cardoza); IL-14 & PA-11 (for Bill Foster & Paul Kanjorski)
    • TX-23: A group called “The American Worker, Inc.” is running some $200K worth of ads against Republican Quico Canseco

    SSP Daily Digest: 9/23 (Morning Edition)

  • DE-Sen: Interesting – Mike Castle isn’t ruling out a write-in bid. If he does pull the trigger, let’s see if the NRSC and the Senate GOP caucus have the stomach to tell Castle to fuck off. It’d be a great test of their will – and their willingness to embrace Christine O’Donnell.
  • FL-Sen: Al Gore Alert! In a rare sighting on the campaign trail, Al Gore (still my president!) will headline a rally for Kendrick Meek in Tampa on September 30th. Have we seen Gore do events for any other candidates this cycle?
  • KY-Sen: Objectively pro-methamphetamine senate candidate Rand Paul keeps running into trouble over his views on drugs. Republican Clay County Sherriff Kevin Johnson endorsed Paul after Paul told him he supported Operation UNITE, a federally-funded anti-drug task force. Paul’s hostility to UNITE, though, is what’s gotten him into hot water in the first place – and amazingly enough, when asked to confirm his pledge to Johnson, Paul’s campaign refused to back it up! I had always hoped/prayed/expected that Rand Paul was such a hardcore libertarian that he’d rigidly – and publicly – cling to beliefs that halfway-competent politicians would be smart enough to elide, deny, or just plain hide. I just figured it would be something like the gold standard, not, you know, meth.
  • Surprisingly, Paul has smelled the glove belonging to a very different interest group, the neocons. They mistrust Paul’s views on Israel and probably just on the general concept of randomly invading countries and killing people.

  • AR-Gov: That Ipsos poll which showed Blanche Lincoln “only” 14 points into her political grave also has a gubernatorial component. Dem Gov. Mike Beebe is beating Republican Jim Keet by a 55-37 margin among LVs. You want an enthusiasm gap? Beebe wins 58-30 among RVs. (It was 57-35 among RVs back in July.)
  • CO-Gov: God, I love the smell of ratfucking in the morning. So, we all know about Scott McInnis’s now-legendary implosion thanks to his plagiarism/theft scandal, but Democrats had a big hand in consigning him to the dustbin of history. It turns out that a group called the Colorado Freedom Fund spent half a million bucks on ads blistering McInnis during the primary, in order to help bolster Dan Maes. The DGA was a big contributor to this effort, chipping in $150K, while unions and wealthy philanthropist Pat Stryker gave the rest. Excellent fucking work, guys.
  • MN-Gov: The RGA is funneling $428K to a pro-Tom Emmer group, while the DGA sent a quarter mil to an org helping Dem Mark Dayton.
  • TX-Gov: Rick Perry may not be the suckiest suck who ever sucked, but you’ll have to agree that he is pretty sucky. The Texas Farm Bureau finally agrees, too. Though they’ve always endorsed him in the past (and have always endorsed Republicans for governor), they’re giving up on his sorry ass this year and staying neutral in the race. (They previously endorsed Kay Bailey Hutchison against him in the primary.) It probably didn’t help that a Perry spokesman, in an attempt to bolster his boss’s teabagger/secessionista cred, derided the bureau as “an insurance company that supported the bailout.”
  • IL-14: We could call this the Hypocrisy State Project and still have tons to write about. The latest chapter in this never-ending saga is penned by Republican Randy Hultgren, who was responsible for marketing his investment firm’s funds. One of the firm’s offerings invested entirely in bailout-backed securities, which were described by one Wall Streeter as “an incredibly free lunch.” This is a two-fer, because this fund was also based in the Cayman Islands, to take advantage of lax tax laws, of course.
  • MA-10: Massachusetts, at least, is one place where Republicans still need to run away from their own party in order to be electable. So it’s no surprise to see Jeffrey Perry declare that he doesn’t want Sarah Palin showing up in his district. (Don’t worry, bud, I think you’re safe.) Of course, Perry isn’t exactly from the non-crazy wing of the Republican Party (to the extent there still is such a thing), since he has teabagger ties himself.
  • MI-07: Rossman Group/Team Telcom (9/20, likely voters, no trendlines):
  • Mark Schauer (D-inc): 38

    Tim Walberg (R): 42

    Undecided: 12

    (MoE: ±5.6%)

  • NY-18: This interview with Jim Russell – remember him from yesterday? the guy whose writings have been favorably cited by the KKK? – is just brutal. He doesn’t disavow anything. So we’ve gotta ask: Why isn’t the press giving this guy the Alvin Greene treatment? After all, Greene’s weirdest idea was to sell bobblehead dolls. Russell thinks there are too many Jews. Anyhow, the Westchester GOP is trying to get Russell off the ballot through legal means, and they say if they can’t, they’ll run a write-in candidate.
  • NY-19: A judge ruled against a group trying to knock Nan Hayworth off the Independence Party line for a lack of valid signatures. Hayworth gets to keep the line, while incumbent John Hall has the Working Families line.
  • NY-23: With the vote count all but completed, it looks like Matt Doheny is (still) the winner of the Republican primary, but Doug Hoffman ain’t conceding yet. I guess he feels burned after what happened in the special election, where he tried to “un-concede” after some counting errors emerged (but still lost anyway). The vote count does not officially get certified until the 27th, but Doheny could declare victory (and/or Hoffman could concede) before then. Hoffman still hasn’t said anything about how vigorously (if at all) he plans to wage war from the Conservative Party line.
  • PA-10: Another day, another NRA endorsement for a Dem. Chris Carney is the latest in a string of mostly-conservative Democrats to rack up the group’s support, even though they labeled him a “true enemy” of guns just four years ago.
  • TN-09: Heh – the Memphis Flyer commissioned a poll by Yacoubian Research, which found Steve Cohen leading Charlotte Bergmann 66-23. There were only 205 respondents, and note that we previously flagged a Yacoubian poll of the primary for attempting to screen voters by asking them if they lived in the 9th CD – how many people actually know what district they live in, by number? But whatever, Steve Cohen ain’t losing.
  • VA-09: Rick Boucher successfully got an ad by Americans for Job Security pulled off the air for making a misleading statements. The ad said “Rick Boucher supports Nancy Pelosi 96 percent of the time,” but this claim was based on the Washington Post’s “party voting” score, which Boucher rightly argued does not measure “support for Pelosi.” (A good time to remind folks that it’s much, much easier to get third-party ads yanked because stations are liable for defamation when they run these ads. Media outlets are immune from liability for candidate ads.)
  • SSP TV (by James L.):

    • LA-Sen: “Diaper” David Vitter hits Charlie Melancon for attending a fundraiser in Canada, of all places.
    • AR-01: Chad Causey’s latest spot takes a shotgun approach to messaging, touting his heritage, his support for a balanced budget amendment and a paycut for Congress, while hitting Republican Rick Crawford over the bad kind of SSP and for his support of a 23% national sales tax
    • FL-22: Allen West takes on Ron Klein over a Florida Democratic Party mailer that boneheadedly revealed West’s Social Security number
    • GA-08: Dem Rep. Jim Marshall goes heavy negative on GOP state Rep. Austin Scott on immigration – not once, but twice
    • MI-07: GOP douche Tim Walberg says that Dem Rep. Mark Schauer is spending America into ruin, and also makes the dubious claim that he “strongly supports” Social Security. The ad, a coordinated expenditure partially paid for by the RNC, is airing in the Lansing media market and cost $85,000.
    • MI-15: John Dingell goes negative on Republican Rob Steele over his support from the wretched hive of scum and villainy that is Wall Street, while Steele has gone up with an ad of his own touting his record as a physician and poking Dingell over spending
    • NC-02: Dem Rep. Bob Etheridge’s latest ad features the testimonials of locals who say that Etheridge saved their jobs
    • OH-12: Dem Paula Brooks touts her record on the Franklin County Commission while spilling marbles all over her kitchen island
    • OR-05: GOPer Scott Bruun will stop the spending… except when it comes to restoring Medicare cuts, apparently
    • SC-02: Libruhl Rob Miller and libruhl Nancy Pelosi will liberally kill all your jobs; meanwhile, Joe Wilson still sounds like he uses a speech synthesizer instead of a functional set of vocal cords. Seriously, what a creepy-sounding asshole.
    • VA-09: Republican Morgan Griffith plays a clip of Barack Obama saying “I love Rick Boucher” – four times in thirty seconds

    KY-06, NM-02, OR-05, PA-12: Dems Lead in DCCC Polls

    The D-trip is out with four new internal polls showing Democratic incumbents in the lead.

    KY-06: Grove Insight for the DCCC (9/7-9, likely voters):

    Ben Chandler (D-inc): 52

    Andy Barr (R): 38

    (MoE: ±4.9%)

    NM-02: Anzalone Liszt for the DCCC (9/7-9, likely voters):

    Harry Teague (D-inc): 51

    Steve Pearce (R): 44

    (MoE: ±4.9%)

    OR-05: Grove Insight for the DCCC (9/7-9, likely voters):

    Kurt Schrader (D-inc): 42

    Scott Bruun (R): 29

    (MoE: ±4.9%)

    PA-12: Grove Insight for the DCCC (9/7-9, likely voters):

    Mark Critz (D-inc): 48

    Tim Burns (R): 41

    (MoE: ±4.9%)

    SSP Daily Digest: 8/26 (Afternoon Edition)

    AZ-Sen: Bad news! For John McCain! J.D. Hayworth still hasn’t conceded. He’s still waiting for those late-breaking absentee ballots to help him make up that oh-so-narrow 56-32 margin, apparently.

    CT-Sen: This doesn’t seem like it’ll end well for Linda McMahon, whose stance on WWE has been that it’s harmless soap opera. Harley McNaught, the father of recently-deceased pro wrestler Lance Cade (who died of heart failure at age 29 in the wake of painkiller addiction), is going on the offense against McMahon in response to her comments that she “might have met him once.” McNaught said that he’d been to several functions with his son where they’d met McMahon and she’d known him by name, and also ripped the company’s “Wellness Program,” which he says was more about PR than about helping employees.

    DE-Sen: There’s no third-party fallback option for teabagger Christine O’Donnell, challenging Mike Castle for the GOP Senate nomination. The Constitution Party had nominated O’Donnell for its ballot line, but didn’t even receive a ballot line after its membership dwindled to 287(!) members. (That’s less than something called the “Blue Enigma Party,” which still qualified for the ballot.) O’Donnell still can mount a write-in campaign after losing the primary to Castle (which she already did in the 2006 race after losing the primary to Jan Ting).

    KY-Sen: Our James L. summed this up pithily: “Douche Day Afternoon.” Losing Dem Senate candidate Dan Mongiardo’s latest statement of semi-support for Jack Conway was that Conway was “not the best” but that “he’s a heck of a lot better” than Rand Paul, whose “scare[s him].”

    PA-Sen, PA-Gov (pdf): The newest Franklin & Marshall poll is another one of their choose-your-own-adventure specials, which shows the dimensions of the enthusiasm gap the Dems are facing, especially in the Keystone State. In the Senate race, Pat Toomey leads Joe Sestak 40-31 among likely voters, but only 31-28 among registered voters, which isn’t much different from where we left off with their last general election poll in May. And in the gubernatorial race, it’s similar, with Tom Corbett leading Dan Onorato 38-27 among LVs, but only 29-28 (probably the best showing I’ve seen in a head-to-head in this race) among RVs.

    FL-Gov: With Hayworth and Murkowski already mentioned today, it’s just turning out to be the big day of GOP disunity and sour grapes all around. While figures like Jeb Bush and state party chair John Thrasher have gotten behind Rick Scott without any major hedging, Bill McCollum is continuing his sulk, flat-out not endorsing Scott.  

    KY-Gov: The aptly-named Republican Agriculture Commissioner, Richie Farmer (I guess “Rich Farmer” was a little too overly descriptive), is still mulling over a run for Governor in next year’s off-year election against Dem incumbent Steve Beshear, where early polling has shown he’d be competitive. He’s also been linked to a possible Lt. Gov. bid, as running mate to state Senate president David Williams.

    SC-Gov: In another sign that a chunk of the local political establishment prefers Dem Vincent Sheheen to GOPer Nikki Haley, Sheheen just got the endorsement of 30 mayors around South Carolina. Most of these mayors are in nonpartisan elected positions, although one, Greer mayor Rick Danner, said he was a two-time voter for Mark Sanford.

    VT-Gov: Faced with the unenviable task of certifying her own gubernatorial primary loss, SoS Deb Markowitz says that the final certification of the super-close race in Vermont will be done on next Tuesday. All five candidates appeared amicably at a unity rally yesterday, but only shortly after Doug Racine’s campaign manager called Peter Shumlin’s declaration of victory premature, saying to wait until Tuesday. Shumlin currently leads Racine by 192 votes.

    AL-02: Rep. Bobby Bright caused some hyperventilating today when it came out that, in meeting with constituents, had punted on the issue of whether or not he’d be voting for Nancy Pelosi for Speaker next session. He did so by listing a number of reasons why that might not be an issue, including the decidedly morbid “heck, she might even get sick and die.”

    CA-18: I don’t know who looks worse in this situation, Mike Berryhill (the Republican launching an uphill, but generally credible, challenge to Rep. Dennis Cardoza), or his former campaign consultant John Villareal. Apparently they parted ways in unpleasant fashion, as Villareal blasted Berryhill’s campaign as a lost cause… but did it in the form of a somewhat unhinged-sounding, 25-minute long rant posted to YouTube.

    OH-17: Jim Traficant may still yet be able to beam himself back into Congress. He just got an extension from Jennifer Brunner, giving him more time to prove that he did collect enough signatures to qualify for the November ballot as an independent. He previously got bounced for the ballot for not having enough valid signatures.

    OR-05: Hot on the heels of a too-good-to-be-true internal from Scott Bruun giving him a small lead a few days ago, Rep. Kurt Schrader hauled out his own internal from Lake Research giving him a pretty comfortable lead: 46-35. The poll’s from late July, though, so one wonders if there’s a more recent one that he’s not sharing.

    PA-08: The ubiquitous POS is out with an internal poll on behalf of ex-Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick, giving him a 7-point lead (48-41) over Democratic sophomore Rep. Patrick Murphy. Murphy hasn’t been one of the Dems’ top worries in Pennsylvania, but as we’ve seen in recent weeks, the Dem brand in Pennsylvania seems to be waning particularly quickly.

    VA-05: Tom Perriello, in an interesting bit of distancing from national Dems that’s ambiguous enough that it works from both right and left, called for the replacement of Treasury Sec. Timothy Geithner, at a local town hall. He didn’t say who his preferred replacement would be (Robert Reich, anyone?).

    Ads: Lead-off ad of the day is from Alan Grayson in FL-08; the Hotline actually says it makes Grayson look “angelic” and they refer to it as the most positive ad they’ve seen so far from anyone. That Grayson… always zigging when everyone else is zagging. Other Dems out with their first TV ads for themselves today include Kathy Dahlkemper in PA-03, Julie Lassa in WI-07, and Tom Hayhurst in IN-03.

    All the GOP ads today are anti-Dem ads being run by third party groups: America’s Future Fund running against Bruce Braley in IA-01, the Heritage Foundation’s lobbying arm against Mike McIntyre in NC-07, and Koch-backed Americans for Prosperity running against Gabrielle Giffords in AZ-08 and a weird two-fer (aimed at the Phoenix market, I guess) attacking both Anne Kirkpatrick and Harry Mitchell in AZ-01 and AZ-05. NWOTSOTB, on any of the ads.

    Rasmussen:

    CA-Gov: Jerry Brown (D) 40%, Meg Whitman (R) 48%

    FL-Sen: Kendrick Meek (D) 21%, Marco Rubio (R) 40%, Charlie Crist (I) 30%

    UT-Gov: Peter Corroon (D) 29%, Gary Herbert (R-inc) 60%

    UT-Sen: Sam Granato (D) 29%, Mike Lee (R) 54%

    SSP Daily Digest: 8/24 (Afternoon Edition)

    CO-Sen, CO-Gov: ColoradoPols has an interesting question up at their site: who’s crazier, the Republicans’ candidate in the Senate race or the Governor’s race? (In fact, that’s a good question for the comments here… not just Colorado, but for a whole number of other states too.) The DSCC would like the answer to be “Ken Buck,” the whole Dan Maes UN-bicycle-plot thing notwithstanding: they’re out with a new ad working the Paul/Angle-style “too extreme” angle, here focusing on Buck’s support for eliminating the 17th amendment.

    PA-Sen: This is going to be a hard one for Pat Toomey to explain without some high-impact semantic gymnastics. At the Pennsylvania Press Club yesterday, Toomey said “I’ve never said I favor privatizing Social Security.” The DSCC promptly rolled out 36 different newspaper articles in which Toomey favored privatizing Social Security. We Ask America did offer some sustenance for Toomey, though: they find him leading Joe Sestak 48-35.

    FL-Gov: Here’s a bad sign for the Republican Party of Florida (aka RPOF, pronounced “rip-off”), who poured a lot of money into carrying Bill McCollum across the finish line in the primary and will have to keep propping him up for November. They’re down to $54K in their federal campaign finance account (after plowing much of their holdings into outside committees backing McCollum). Maybe they’d been counting on a reimbursement check from disgraced former state party chair Jim Greer to help fill their coffers a bit, but here’s the ultimate ignominy: Greer’s $7K check to reimburse the party for overcharges bounced.

    LA-03: Politico has a preview of the Republican primary in the open seat 3rd (which will be decided this Saturday, don’t forget). Former state House speaker Hunt Downer is pretty universally considered frontrunner, but he faces a double-teabagging from attorney Jeff Landry and engineer Kristian Magar, who are pointing to his decades as a Democrat, and his snubbing of Tea Party events. Downer’s fate could rest on whether he clears the 50% mark and avoids a runoff, as he could face more trouble against just one opponent.

    MI-01, MI-07: It looks like the Tea Party won’t be getting a ballot line in Michigan, after a 2-2 decision by the state’s Board of Canvassers. (The tie means they’re kept off the ballot.) Republicans brought the challenge pointing to possible Democratic involvement in getting the Tea Party on the ballot (to the extent that a member of the Oakland County Dem leadership helped them). This probably has the greatest impact in the competitive races in the 1st and 7th, where the Tea Party had had candidates ready to go (Lonnie Lee Snyder and Danny Davis, respectively), presumably who would eat into the GOP’s vote share.

    NJ-06: Who knew that when Facebook was created that it’d become a preferred venue for leaking internal polls? Anna Little, the surprise victor in the NJ-06 GOP primary, is now touting a poll from National Research showing her trailing Rep. Frank Pallone 40-34.

    OR-05: One other GOP internal poll kicking around today: state Rep. Scott Bruun, is out with a poll via local Republican pollster Bob Moore giving him a 41-38 lead over freshman Rep. Kurt Schrader.

    Ads: The big ad of the day may be Harry Reid’s newest attack on Sharron Angle in NV-Sen, using her own words to seize on her claims that the state aid package was “money laundering.” Ted Strickland in OH-Gov is also out with a new ad, hitting John Kasich again on his ties to Lehman Brothers. Two House members facing credible challenges this year are also out with their first ads of the season: Republican Lee Terry in NE-02, focusing on his hatred of pork, and Democrat Martin Heinrich in NM-01, focusing on his constituent services.

    Outside Money: The Washington Post has a fantastic new little tool, in the form of a sortable chart that keeps track of outside expenditures by unions, Republican front groups, assorted weirdos, and all other manner of interest groups outside the two parties. Fun fact: did you know that Robert Kirkland (who spent $2.1 million) is #5 overall in total IEs for 2010 (on behalf of his brother Ron’s losing GOP primary run in TN-08), more than the Club for Growth, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, or even the DSCC?

    Rasmussen:

    IL-Gov: Pat Quinn (D-inc) 37%, Bill Brady (R) 46%

    MO-Sen: Robin Carnahan (D) 40%, Roy Blunt (R) 51%

    OR-Gov: John Kitzhaber (D) 44%, Chris Dudley (R) 45%

    SSP Daily Digest: 8/11 (Afternoon Edition)

    CT-Sen: This may be the first time we’ve ever linked to Jezebel, but they have a nice deconstruction of the public face of the new image that Linda McMahon has built up for herself, and its complicated relationship to the WWE, the source of the millions that Linda McMahon plans to spend on her Senate bid. (Although I wish they’d focused more on the behind-the-scenes stuff: the steroids, the lack of health care, the union-busting, and so on…)

    KY-Sen: Is this really the kind of headlines that Rand Paul (or any candidate, for any office) would want to be seeing today? “Woman Says Paul Did Not Kidnap Her,” and “Paul Apologizes for Fancy Farm Beer Flub.” The former story isn’t that surprising, in that Paul’s college acquaintance clarifies that the whole let’s-tie-her-up-make-her-smoke-pot-and-pray-to-a-graven-idol thing was more of a consensual hazing than an out-and-out kidnapping (of course, other than the “kidnapping” semantics, all that Bong Hits for Aqua Buddha stuff still seems to stand). The latter story has its roots in Paul’s worries that the audience at the Fancy Farm church picnic (the same ones who got the vapors last year when Jack Conway used the words “son of a bitch”) were going to start throwing beer at him – even though the event was dry. Having realized that you don’t go around dissing politically-legendary church picnics unless you have the political instincts of a brick, Paul later apologized.

    LA-Sen: Southern Media & Opinion Research finds that David Vitter leads Charlie Melancon 46-28, not much changed since their last poll from spring, where Vitter led 49-31. They also take a look at the Republican Senate primary, finding (as did POS a few weeks ago) that Chet Traylor is really turning into something of a paper tiger: Vitter leads Traylor 78-4! They also do a quick look at the jungle-style Lt. Governor special election, giving the lead to current Republican SoS Jay Dardenne at 26.

    OR-Gov: Well, it seems like the John Kitzhaber campaign has finally acknowledged what the blogosphere realized a while ago, that it’s time to shake things up and bring in a more feisty and uptempo approach. That’s hopefully what they’re doing with a new campaign manager, Patricia McCaig. Interestingly, McCaig is a former right-hand woman to ex-Gov. Barbara Roberts, who Kitzhaber shoved over in 1994 and whose relations with Kitz have been rocky since then.

    AZ-03: Will today’s double-whammy be enough to knock Ben Quayle out of his seeming frontrunner position in the GOP primary in the 3rd? Rocked by controversy over having denied and then having gotten outed as having written pseudonymously for sleazy local website DirtyScottsdale.com (a forerunner to today’s TheDirty.com), he’s out with a TV spot that he hopes will take some of the heat off. Unfortunately for him, the ad seems to have gotten an almost universally derisive reaction, based on his odd combination of hyperbolic claims (“Barack Obama is the worst president in history”), slow, droning delivery, and strange robotic motions.

    IA-03: When we moved Leonard Boswell in the 3rd to Tossup a few weeks ago, we weren’t fooling around. A second Republican poll was released today giving his GOP challenger, state Sen. Brad Zaun, a decent-sized lead: Victory Enterprises, on behalf of the Polk County GOP and not the Zaun camp, finds a 45-38 lead for Zaun. (There was also a June poll giving Zaun a 41-32 lead. It was also by Victory Enterprises, and shared the same Republican-friendly party ID composition, but that one was for the Zaun campaign.)

    OR-05: He’s Scott Bruun, and he drives a truck. He also supports privatizing Social Security. Or doesn’t he? Bruun has reversed himself several times on how he frames the issue, depending on who his audience is, but either way, he seems to be relying on the Paul Ryan roadmap for his ideas.

    Passages: Here’s a sad bookend to yesterday’s death of Ted Stevens: today’s death of another legendary, long-time Congressman who was a master at horse-trading and pork-wrangling, this one from the other side of the aisle. Former Rep. Dan Rostenkowski, one of the biggest Democratic names to fall in 1994, died at age 82.

    Rasmussen:

    FL-Sen: Kendrick Meek (D) 21%, Marco Rubio (R) 38%, Charlie Crist (I) 33%

    FL-Sen: Jeff Greene (D) 20%, Marco Rubio (R) 36%, Charlie Crist (I) 37%

    IL-Sen: Alexi Giannoulias (D) 40%, Mark Kirk (R) 40%

    TN-Gov: Mike McWherter (D) 31%, Bill Haslam (R) 56%

    WI-Sen: Russ Feingold (D-inc) 46%, Ron Johnson (R) 47%

    WI-Sen: Russ Feingold (D-inc) 48%, Dave Westlake (R) 39%

    SSP Daily Digest: 8/2 (Afternoon Edition)

    WA-Sen: I’m not sure how this will work, practically speaking, but the two Tea Partiers in the race, rancher Clint Didier and fastener mogul Paul Akers, are “joining forces.” They’ll be doing joint ads and joint online forums for the remaining few weeks. They can’t, of course, be jointly voted-for, so I don’t know what the endgame is, but it probably doesn’t matter, as both have been polling in the single digits in polls of the jungle primary. Apparently, it does give them a better venue for airing their grievances with the GOP establishment’s selection of Dino Rossi as standard-bearer; maybe this way, Akers can distract the ref while Didier puts Rossi in a sleeper hold.

    Also on the weird timing front, Washington’s Republican SoS, Sam Reed, is just out with a new book on the 2004 gubernatorial election and the protracted recount and court challenges he oversaw. Relations between Reed and the rest of the state Republicans were severely tested during the recount, seeing as how the scrupulous Reed wanted to, y’know, follow the rules. While the book doesn’t seem to paint Rossi in a terribly unfavorable light, it can’t help but remind everyone of his “perennial candidate” status.

    AZ-Gov: You might recall that NRA board member Owen Buz Mills recently ended his GOP primary campaign against the once-endangered, now-all-powerful Jan Brewer several weeks ago. Well, he’s not quite done, his spokesperson is now saying: he’s going to enter a Rob Simmons-style state of electoral limbo. Mills won’t be spending any more money on the race, but he will leave his name on the ballot. (Other dropouts Dean Martin and John Munger have filed papers of formal withdrawal from the race.)

    OR-Gov, OR-05: Now that Oregon has opted to join New York in the weird world of fusion voting, now it even has its own Independent Party trying to quirkily play it down the middle. Based on its online straw poll of members (with a vote total of a whopping 2,290), the IP gave its backing to Democrat John Kitzhaber in the gubernatorial race, but to Republican state Rep. Scott Bruun in OR-05 (instead of incumbent Dem Kurt Schrader).

    TX-Gov: A number of prominent Dallas business leaders have signed on to a letter announcing their support for Bill White in the gubernatorial race. About half of the signatories, a mix of moderate Republicans and independents, are, in fact, former Kay Bailey Hutchison supporters.

    WY-Gov: I think this trumps her earlier Wilford Brimley endorsement. State auditor Rita Meyer (the only woman in the four-way GOP primary field) got added to Sarah Palin’s stable of Mama Grizzlies late last week.

    AL-02, AL-05: The “generally conservative” Alabama Farmer’s Federation handed out helpful endorsements to two Dems today: not just to Rep. Bobby Bright (who seems to fit their profile well) but also to Steve Raby, running in the 5th. Raby seems well connected with the agriculture world through his former work for ex-Sen. Howell Heflin.

    MI-02, MI-03: A poll for the Grand Rapids Press, taken by Practical Political Consulting, looks at the GOP primaries in the two western Michigan open seats. In the 2nd (Peter Hoekstra’s seat), former NFL player and Family Research Council executive Jay Riemersma has a small lead at 22, followed by former state Rep. Bill Huizenga and teabagging businessman Bill Cooper, both at 15, and state Sen. Wayne Kuipers at 13. In the 3rd (Vern Ehlers’ seat), state Rep. Justin Amash (anointed as chosen one by the DeVos family) leads at 28, followed by African-American state Sen. Bill Hardiman at 23 and ex-Kent Co. Commissioner Steve Heacock (the moderate in the field, and Ehlers’ endorsee) at 17.

    FL-12: We keep mentally writing this race off due to Lori Edwards’ paltry fundraising, and then polling evidence to the contrary shows up. For the second time, the Edwards camp has released an internal poll giving them a lead in this R+6 open seat. Edwards leads GOP ex-state Rep. Dennis Ross 35-32 in a poll taken by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner. The catch here is one of the most legitimate Tea Party candidates anywhere is here: Randy Wilkinson, a Polk Co. Commissioner who briefly sought the GOP nomination before deciding to go the third-party route. Wilkinson polls at 20%, although we’ll have to see if the near-broke Wilkinson can keep those numbers up through November.

    TN-03: Newt Gingrich handed out a last-minute seal of approval in the GOP primary in the 3rd. He’s backing the more-or-less establishment candidate, former state GOP chair Robin Smith. Smith’s main opponent is Chuck Fleischmann, a partly-self-funding attorney who seems tighter with the Mike Huckabee crowd than the teabaggers.

    WA-03: The Beltway media seems to take it as an article of faith that GOP state Rep. Jaime Herrera is going to be Denny Heck’s opponent in November, but David Castillo shouldn’t be counted out. Not being on the ground, they wouldn’t pick up on the general sense of underwhelmingness that seems to surround Herrera, but it seems like they would, at some point, have noticed that nearly all the endorsements of consequence in the district have gone to Castillo. He got endorsements from the newspapers in Vancouver, Longview, and Centralia, as well as the out-of-district Seattle Times. AG Rob McKenna, probably the state’s best-liked Republican, had endorsed Castillo before Rep. Brian Baird’s retirement and Herrera’s entry, but he’s been pointedly sticking by his endorsement, hosting a Castillo fundraiser last week.

    House: Nate Silver’s out with a new toy that SSPers will certainly be interested in: having found that Democratic House candidates tend to overperform vis-à-vis presidential numbers in districts with lower median household income, he’s created a new index that’s a mashup of prez numbers and income, called the Partisan Propensity Index. (He looked at only results in open seat races, which eliminates the main problem with trying to fit House numbers on top of prez numbers, which is the overwhelming staying power of incumbents.) At the end of the day, it’s still not too different from PVI, inasmuch as Chet Edwards has the worst district of any Dem and Joe Cao has the worst district of any GOPer, but it does reflect the reality that suburban Sun Belt districts that are truly swingy at the presidential level are a harder nut for Dems to crack at the House level than rural Appalachian districts that are red at the presidential level.

    Rasmussen:

    NV-Gov: Rory Reid (D) 40%, Brian Sandoval (R) 50%

    OK-Gov: Jari Askins (D) 36%, Mary Fallin (R) 57%

    PA-Gov: Dan Onorato (D) 39%, Tom Corbett (R) 50%

    PA-Sen: Joe Sestak (D) 39%, Pat Toomey (R) 45%

    SC-Gov: Vincent Sheheen (D) 35%, Nikki Haley (R) 49%

    WA-Sen: Patty Murray (D-inc) 49%, Dino Rossi (R) 47%

    WA-Sen: Patty Murray (D-inc) 48%, Clint Didier (R) 45%

    WA-Sen: Patty Murray (D-inc) 48%, Paul Akers (R) 42%

    WI-Gov: Tom Barrett (D) 45%, Mark Neumann (R) 44%

    WI-Gov: Tom Barrett (D) 43%, Scott Walker (R) 50%