Tag: CT-02

Remember this poll showing Dem Rep. Joe Courtney with a 28-point lead over his GOP opponent, Sean Sullivan?

At the time, Sullivan’s campaign brushed the numbers off, saying that they were confident in their chances this November. Of course — what else are they gonna say?

However, Ted Mann over at The Day makes a hilarious rare find: Sullivan’s own campaign spokesman, Andrew Powaleny, has been writing about how Sullivan’s campaign is a “lost cause” on Twitter:

But at his publicly available page on twitter, the networking site, Andrew Powaleny, the campaign spokesman, wrote a message to a friend, sounding a different tune:

just read a poll that shows my candidate trailing by about 25%, told you it was a lost cause! 06:01 AM September 30, 2008

The friend’s response was sympathetic:

didn’t you ever see Mr. Smith Goes to Washington? “The only causes worth fighting for are the lost ones!” 06:22 AM September 30, 2008

But it didn’t cheer up the spokesman:

No I haven’t!!! I’m going to e-mail you the statement I made to the press trying to explain the numbers, you’ll laugh 08:24 AM September 30, 2008

In an e-mail response, Powaleny assures us that his exchange was an entirely “sarcastic” one. Well, what else is he gonna say? Dude’s gotta put food on the table.

While this is all extremely hilarious, it’s so pathetic that I almost feel sorry for this loser — and for Sullivan’s hapless campaign in general. Almost.

SSP currently rates this race as “Safe Democratic“, and so does Sullivan’s spokesman.

(Hat-tip: CT Local Politics)

University of Connecticut (9/22-28, likely voters):

Joe Courtney (D-inc): 55

Sean Sullivan (R): 27

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Remember how Ken Spain, the NRCC’s mouthpiece, was thumping his chest last year over Sullivan’s status as a “top-tier” “heavyweight“?

Yeah, me neither.

SSP rates this race as Safe Democratic.

These are just a few of my favorite bits of Republican misfortune this year. I’m sure you can think of more.

• VA-Sen: A seat your party holds in a purple-trending state somewhat unexpectedly opens up. The good news is that you have an ideal successor, ready-to-go. He’s won hard-fought elections, cultivated a “moderate” record, and has tons of cash in the bank. What do you do? Well, obviously, if you are the modern Republican Party, you tell him to fuck off. Congrats and thanks to the VA GOP for running Tom Davis out of town by cancelling their primary and scheduling a wingnut festival instead.
• NY-19: The gall! The unmitigated gall! How could a Democrat ever dare to represent Westchester! Why, such things just aren’t done! Well, of course they are (after all, a Dem represents the 18th), but so said the NY GOP after 2006. So they set their sights on Rep. John Hall and rallied around uber-rich self-funder Andrew Saul. Only problem: After months of gangbusters fundraising, it turns out Saul’s up to his ears in ethics violations – and now out of the race. A Republican engaging in corruption? Why, such things just aren’t done!
• NJ-07: Here’s a job no Republican wants: food-taster for Markos Moulitsas. Here’s another job no Republican wants, either: United States Representative for New Jersey’s Seventh Congressional District. Within just a single day of this seat opening up, Tom Kean, Jr., Jon Bramnick and Bob Franks all took a pass. Three up, three down, end of the inning. Better luck in the next frame, compadres.
• OH-15: First there was Jim Petro. But Petro said no. Then there was Steve Stivers. But Stivers said no. Then there was Jim Hughes, but Jim Hughes said no. Then there was Greg Lashutka but Lashutka said no. Then, there was… three months of silence. And finally, Steve Stivers decided he was fer it after he was agin’ it, undoubtedly after Tom Cole twisted his arm 180 degrees behind his back. Hint to Republicans: Money won’t spring loose if you shove it the full 360. Nor will victory.
• CT-02: The NRCC called him a “heavyweight.” Thing is, Mike Tyson is also a heavyweight. No, Sean Sullivan doesn’t sport any facial tattoos, but he might as well be wearing a scarlet letter, given how unloved he is these days in DC. “Persona non grata,” declared one insider after Sully scraped together a miserable $25K in the second quarter. Personally, I prefer another Latin phrase: bigus dickus. Good luck, skipper.

Crumb-bums will be crumb-bums; they can’t help it – it’s just in their nature.

From the Norwich Bulletin:

Sean Sullivan admits his first Federal Elections Commission report to be filed in two weeks won’t make many people stand up and take notice of his candidacy.

The presumptive Republican congressional candidate in Connecticut’s 2nd District said this week he’ll likely report between $25,000 and $30,000 raised since entering the race in early April. Those numbers will pale in comparison to incumbent U.S. Rep. Joe Courtney’s, D-2nd District, filing, which should show the freshman lawmaker well past the $500,000 mark.

So Sullivan, a guy who has been touted as a potentially strong recruit to Courtney, couldn’t crack the $30,000 mark in the first full three months of his campaign.  Meanwhile, Courtney reportedly pulls in over $500K in the second quarter, which will add nicely to the $380K cash-on-hand he reported in his April filings.  Does Sullivan have a clue?

With no previous political experience, Sullivan said he has spent much of the first three months of his candidacy simply learning how to run a campaign.

“I’ve been educating myself on what needs to be done,” he said. “I’ve talked with the folks at the Republican National Congressional Committee in Washington. I’ve been talking with (former Congressman) Rob (Simmons) and a number of others, including Chris Healy, who have in the past played a major role in Rob’s past campaigns.”

Sullivan chuckled at the advice national party officials gave him.

“They told me I needed to raise $1 million by the end of the year,” he said. “Raising $100,000 might be more realistic, like Rob did when he first challenged (former Congressman) Sam Gejdenson. But the bottom line, before I can expect any significant help from the party, national or state, I first have to prove myself.” (emphasis added)

Proving yourself, in the bare-knuckle world of congressional politics, would include the ability to raise the necessary funds to display viability, Sean.  And I love the laff-and-a-haff line about raising $100K before the year is over.  Yup, that kind of talk will definitely inspire the decision-makers over at the NRCC.

It’s got to be incredibly dispiriting for many potential GOP candidates to be facing supposedly vulnerable freshmen who are on pace to raise $1 million or more in their first year in the House, as the DCCC is pressuring its freshmen members to do.  And because fundraising superiority has always been one of the ways Republicans have won, it puts them at an even huger disadvantage than Democrats would have been in the reverse situation.

(Hat tip: Connecticut Local Politics)

From the AP:

A roller-coaster recount that stretched nearly a week and uncovered significant vote-counting flaws in at least three communities came to an end Tuesday night, confirming [Democrat] Courtney’s general election victory over Rep. Rob Simmons.

Recounts in each of the district’s 65 towns gave Courtney the nod, although his election-night margin of 167 votes narrowed to 91, according to results tabulated by town clerks. Nearly 250,000 votes were cast.

God, it feels to do this again: add CT-02 to the big board, Johnny!

(Bumped. – promoted by James L.)

From the Hotline:

In the contest between Joe Courtney (D) and Rep. Rob Simmons, new results are in:

So far today, Simmons (R) has picked up 105 votes. The gap is now about 60 votes with many more towns to compete and report. Spirits in the Simmons camp are high (Hotline sources).

Yikes.  It looks like we’ll know what happens by Wednesday.

Update: The Courant has the current margin at 66 votes.  As Samuel L. Jackson would say, hang on to your butts.

Update II: The AP has Courtney recovering slightly–to a 109 vote lead.

Update III: The Courant shows Simmons picking up a few more votes.  Now Courtney is only 82 votes ahead.  We’ll know the final score in this “stomach-churning” recount tomorrow night.

With every town except Waterford reporting, Courtney is up by 239.  Most of Waterford’s elected officials are Republican (http://www.waterford…).  Therfore, we should expect Simmons to pick up some seats.  This is the same district that Gejdenson won by 4 votes (21 after the recount) in 1994.

We may be watching this one for a while.

-Dan

The latest California Field Poll has Shwarzenegger up by double digits but still under 50%. Feinstein also up by double digits, with slight slippage within the MOE. Unfortunetly no polling on the “down the ticket” or Congressional races.

11/1/2006 MOE 3.5% Both Polls

Gov:

Shwarzenegger 49 (44)

Angelides 33 (34)

Other 6 (7)

Undecided 12 (15)

Angelides is only leading in LA County-42% to 36% and tied in the SF Bay Area, not good news. Looks like the Gropenator will pull this out but interesting that he still hasn’t popped 50%. 78% believe Shwarzenegger will win.

Sen:

Feinstein 55  (57)

Mountjoy 33  (29)

Other  4 (6)

Undecided 8 (8)

No regional info. Interesting slip though its within the MOE and I only just saw my first Feinstein TV Ad today.

AZ-08

Zogby(Reuters). 10/24-29. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/25-10/2 results)

Graf (R) 41 (37)

Giffords (D) 54 (45)

CO-07

Zogby (Reuters). 10/24-29. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/25-10/2 results)

O’Donnell (R) 40 (34)

Perlmutter (D) 54 (45)

CT-02

Zogby (Reuters). 10/24-29. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/25-10/2 results)

Simmons (R) 47 (44)

Courtney (D) 42 (41)

CT-04

Zogby (Reuters). 10/24-29. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/25-10/2 results)

Shays (R) 44 (41)

Farrell (D) 51 (46)

IL-06

Zogby (Reuters). 10/24-29. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/25-10/2 results)

Roskam (R) 40 (38)

Duckworth (D) 54 (43)

IN-02

Zogby (Reuters). 10/24-29. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/25-10/2 results)

Chocola (R) 39 (39)

Donnelly (D) 52 (49)

IN-09

Zogby for Reuters. 10/24-29. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/25-10/2 results)

Sodrel (R) 46 (38)

Hill (D) 48 (46)

IA-01

Zogby(Reuters). 10/24-29. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/25-10/2 results)

Whalen (R) 42 (34)

Braley (D) 49 (47)

KY-04

Zogby(Reuters). 10/24-29. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/25-10/2 results)

Davis (R) 42 (42)

Lucas (D) 45 (36)

MN-06

Zogby (Reuters). 10/24-29. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/25-10/2 results)

Bachmann (R) 52 (46)

Wetterling (D) 42 (43)

NM-01

Zogby for Reuters. 10/24-29. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/25-10/2 results)

Wilson (R) 44 (40)

Madrid (D) 53 (50)

NC-11

Zogby (Reuters). 10/24-29. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/25-10/2 results)

Taylor (R) 43 (40)

Shuler (D) 48 (51)

OH-18

Zogby (Reuters). 10/24-29. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/25-10/2 results)

Padgett (R) 33 (36)

Space (D) 58 (45)

PA-06

Zogby (Reuters). 10/24-29. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/25-10/2 results)

Gerlach (R) 44 (41)

Murphy (D) 49 (43)

VIRGINIA (2nd CD)

Zogby (Reuters). 10/24-29. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/25-10/2 results)

Drake (R) 51 (42)

Kellam (D) 43 (46)