NV-Sen, NV-Gov: More Trouble for the Reid Boys

Mason-Dixon for the Las Vegas Review-Journal (11/30-12/2, likely voters, 10/6-8 in parens):

Harry Reid (D-inc): 42 (43)

Danny Tarkanian (R): 48 (48)

Harry Reid (D-inc): 41 (39)

Sue Lowden (R): 51 (49)

(MoE: ±4%)

Them ol’ Reid Boys got themselves a heap of trouble. Harry Reid trails both Sue Lowden and Danny Tarkanian by significant margins. Reid also has bad favorables of 38/49, compared with blank-slate-ish results for the GOPers: 33/13 for Lowden and 32/12 for Tarkanian.

Former state party chair Lowden, who now has prominent GOP strategist Dick Wadhams in her cheering section, has a lot of noisy detractors in the GOP screaming “RINO” (mostly from Paulists ticked off over her anti-Ron Paul chicanery at the 2008 caucus). But she still has enough establishment support for a small plurality in the primary, as seen below. Note that the big gainer is, as I expected, right-wing Assemblywoman Sharron Angle, who seems to be carrying the movement conservative flag in this race. But contrary to what I expected, this may be more of a three-way race than a five-way, though: rich guy John Chachas and state Sen. Mark Amodei are down at 1% with the nobodies.

Sue Lowden (R): 25 (23)

Danny Tarkanian (R): 24 (21)

Sharron Angle (R): 13 (9)

Bill Parson (R): 1 (1)

Robin Titus (R): 1 (1)

Mike Wiley (R): 1 (1)

John Chachas (R): 1 (NA)

Mark Amodei (R): 1 (NA)

Undecided: 33 (44)

(MoE: ±6%)

Political Wire also has a leaked look at the same poll’s gubernatorial numbers. UPDATE (DavidNYC, 12/5): The full numbers are now available from the LVRJ:

Jim Gibbons (R-inc): 18

Brian Sandoval (R): 39

Michael Montadon (R): 6

Undecided: 37

(MoE: ±6%)

Rory Reid (D): 34 (33)

Brian Sandoval (R): 49 (50)

Undecided: 17

Rory Reid (D): 48

Jim Gibbons (R-inc): 34

Undecided: 18

Rory Reid (D): 24 (25)

Brian Sandoval (R): 32 (33)

Oscar Goodman (I): 35 (33)

Undecided: 9

Rory Reid (D): 25

Jim Gibbons (R-inc): 25

Oscar Goodman (I): 38

Undecided: 12

(MoE: ±4%)

The younger half of the Reid boys, Clark County Commissioner Rory Reid, isn’t faring well either, getting pasted by Republican former AG Brian Sandoval in a two-way and finishing third behind Las Vegas mayor Oscar Goodman and Sandoval in a three-way. My personal wish list is to see a Goodman/Reid Dem primary matchup and a Goodman/Sandoval general polled — Goodman is a Dem as Las Vegas mayor, and running as a Dem would probably only increase his chances of winning the general as he’d probably pick up most of those Reid votes in the general (however, he’s been pretty adamant that if he runs, it’s as an indie). Not that we might necessarily want the, um, “colorful” Goodman to be governor, but that’s a whole ‘nother kettle of fish.

I’m not sure if the LVRJ didn’t leak numbers of a Reid/Gibbons and Goodman/Reid/Gibbons matchup like they did last time, or if they didn’t even bother polling it. (UPDATE: They did poll Gibbons.) This time (unlike last time), they tested the GOP primary, finding a mighty edge for former AG Brian Sandoval, so maybe they decided just not to bother polling Gibbons in the general. Problems abound on every front today for Gibbons, whose soon-to-be-ex-wife Dawn is interviewed in Reno Magazine and paints an entirely unsympathetic portrait of the governor.

RaceTracker Wiki: NV-Sen | NV-Gov

SSP Daily Digest: 11/2

CO-Sen: Former state Sen. Tom Wiens made it official; he’s entering the Republican field in the Senate race. With former Lt. Governor Jane Norton wearing the mantle of establishment anointment in this race, Wien’s entry may actually help Norton, by taking non-Norton votes away from conservative Weld County DA Ken Buck. Wiens is a wealthy rancher prepared to put up to half a million of his own dollars into the race.

FL-Sen: If anyone has to sweating the movement conservatives’ takedown of the pre-selected moderate establishment candidate in NY-23, it’s gotta be Charlie Crist. Here’s one more thing for him to worry about: his job approval according to a new St. Petersburg Times poll is only 42/55. They don’t have him in as dire straits against Marco Rubio in the GOP primary as a number of other pollsters, though — Crist leads Rubio 50-28 — but the ultimate indignity is on the question of whether respondents would choose Crist or Jeb Bush to lead Florida right now, 47% opt for Bush (with 41 for Crist). On the Dem side, Rep. Kendrick Meek leads newly-announced former Miami mayor Maurice Ferre 26-6.

IL-Sen, IL-07: There a lots of interesting plot lines forming as today is the filing deadline in Illinois. But the big one is: what the hell is up with Patrick Hughes? The real estate developer was considered to be the right-wingers’ go-to guy to against alleged moderate Rep. Mark Kirk in the GOP primary, but now rumors are swirling that he doesn’t have the signatures to qualify. There also seem to be some major ball-droppings for progressives: there’s nobody challenging Rep. Dan Lipinski in the primary in IL-03, and there’s nobody, period, to go up against GOP Rep. Peter Roskam in the R+0 IL-06. In the 7th, where it’s unclear whether Rep. Danny Davis will be coming back or not (he’s filed for his seat, but also for Cook County Board President), he’s facing primary competition from only one elected official: state Sen. Rickey Hendon (Cook Co. Deputy Recorder of Deeds Darlena Williams-Burnett is also a big name, but I don’t think deputy recorder is an elected position). Hendon says he’ll bail out and run for Lt. Governor if Davis sticks around.

Meanwhile, on the Senate front, state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias is touting his own internal poll from GQR giving him a 3-point edge on Rep. Mark Kirk in a general election, 46-43. The same poll finds less-known Democrat former Chicago Inspector General David Hoffman trailing Kirk 48-39.

IN-Sen: Research 2000 (on behalf of the Progressive Change Campaign Committee, rather than Kos) found last week that Blanche Lincoln was in serious trouble electorally and that her troubles would mount if she opposed health care reform. They also looked at Evan Bayh, and they found that, a) he’s not in trouble (62/30 approvals, although no head-to-head test against his erstwhile opponent, state Sen. Marlin Stutzman), and b) a majority wouldn’t be moved one way or the other by his health care actions.

MA-Sen: The start of debates haven’t done much to reshape things in the Democratic primary in the special election in the Bay State. AG Martha Coakley holds a 25-point lead over Rep. Michael Capuano, according to an R2K poll commissioned by local blog Blue Mass Group. Coakley is at 42 and Capuano at 16, with Stephen Pagliuca at 15 and Alan Khazei at 5. Only 52% of Coakley’s voters are firm about it, though, but that’s not much different from any of the other candidates.

FL-Gov: That aforementioned St. Petersburg Times poll also looked at the governor’s race, and they gave Democratic CFO Alex Sink her first lead in a while; she’s up a single point on GOP AG Bill McCollum, 38-37. More trouble for McCollum: state Senator Paula Dockery, as threatened, now appears to be jumping into the Republican primary, which had been painstakingly cleared for him.

MN-Gov: If a candidate falls in the Minnesota gubernatorial Republican field, does it make a sound? State Rep. Paul Kohls dropped out, having not gotten much traction according to recent straw polls. That leaves approximately eleventy-seven zillion Republicans left in the hunt.

VA-Gov: He’s dead, Jim. Four more polls on VA-Gov are out:

YouGov (pdf): McDonnell 53, Deeds 40

Mason-Dixon: McDonnell 53, Deeds 41

PPP (pdf): McDonnell 56, Deeds 42

SurveyUSA: McDonnell 58, Deeds 40

MI-07: Unseated wingnut Tim Walberg — who’d like to get his job back from freshman Dem Mark Schauer — has some company in the GOP primary next year: attorney and Iraq vet Brian Rooney (the brother of Florida Rep. Tom Rooney) is getting in the race. It’s not clear whether Rooney is any more moderate than Walberg, though; he’s an attorney for the right-wing Thomas More Law Center, the theocons’ answer to the ACLU.

NY-23: A few more odds and ends in the 23rd. One more key Republican endorser working for Doug Hoffman now is Rudy Giuliani (like George Pataki, not the likeliest fellow you’d expect to see make common cause with the Conservative Party — with neither of them having ruled out 2010 runs, they seem to want to be in good graces with the national GOP, who are all-in for Hoffman now). Rudy’s crack team of robots is making calls on his behalf. Another possible useful endorsement: Watertown’s mayor Jeff Graham is now backing Hoffman. Former candidate Dede Scozzafava, on the other hand, is now cutting robocalls on Democrat Bill Owens’ behalf. Finally, here’s an ill omen on the motivation front: sparse turnout was reported for Joe Biden‘s appearance on behalf of Owens.

PA-06: One more Republican is getting in the field in the open seat race in the 6th: Howard Cohen, a consultant who is the former Revenue Secretary from the Dick Thornburgh administration decades ago. He’ll face a financial gap against pharma exec Steven Welch, and a name rec gap against state Rep. Curt Schroder, though.

AL-AG: One incumbent who looks badly endangered going into 2010 is Alabama’s Republican Attorney General, Troy King. Having buddied up with the state’s trial lawyers (thus angering the local business establishment) and also pissed off many local DAs by interfering in their cases, King has lost most establishment support in the upcoming GOP primary against Luther Strange. Two of Strange’s biggest backers are both of the state’s Senators, Jeff Sessions and Richard Shelby.

ME-Init: Two more polls on Maine’s Question 1 (where “yes” is a vote to overturn the state’s gay marriage law), both pointing to an excruciatingly close vote. PPP (taken over the weekend) sees it passing 51-47, while Research 2000 (taken last week) gives a tiny edge to “no,” 47-48. (R2K also confirms that Olympia Snowe’s numbers are way off; the once bulletproof Snowe now has approvals of 50/44.)

NYC: Three more polls all show Michael Bloomberg with an easy path to a third term, beating Democratic comptroller William Thompson. Bloomberg leads 50-38 according to Quinnipiac, 53-42 according to SurveyUSA, and 53-38 according to Marist (pdf).

Mayors: There are fresh polls in a few other mayoral races. In St. Petersburg, Florida, one of the most hotly contended races around, Bill Foster leads Kathleen Ford 48-44 according to SurveyUSA. (Foster leads among both blacks and conservatives.) The racially polarized race in Charlotte gives a small edge to the conservative white candidate, Andy Lassiter, who leads 50-46 over Anthony Foxx. And in Chapel Hill, North Carolina, all we know is that someone with a difficult-to-spell last name will be mayor. Matt Czajkowski leads Mark Kleinschmidt 45-44. (Czajkowski seems to be the conservative and Kleinschmidt the liberal.)

State legislatures: In case there wasn’t enough to focus on tomorrow, Josh Goodman points to five legislative special elections tomorrow. The big one is Michigan‘s 19th Senate district, which was vacated by Democratic Rep. Mark Schauer. Republican former state Rep. Mike Nofs may have an edge for the pickup against Democratic state Rep. Martin Griffin, at least based on fundraising. There are also Dem-held seats up in Alabama’s 65th House district, Missouri’s 73rd House district, and Washington’s 16th House district (the reddest Dem-held seat in Washington), and a GOP-held seat in South Carolina’s 48th House district. (UPDATE: TheUnknown285 points us to a whopping seven legislative seats up from grabs in Georgia, too, in his diary.)

NRCC: Pete Sessions Deathwatch, Vol. 1? This seems odd, given that he’s had some pretty good success on the recruiting front, but apparently the behind-closed-doors potshots are hitting NRCC head Sessions just as heavily as they did Tom Cole last cycle. The complaints aren’t about recruiting, though, but rather about fundraising, where the NRCC is still lagging the DCCC despite the superficial conventional wisdom that Republicans come into 2010 with momentum, and about not keeping enough of a lid on all those nagging intraparty skirmishes that somehow only the blogosphere ever seems to notice.

Polling: Mark Blumenthal has a thought-provoking piece on polling the cap-and-trade issue. The key problem: no one knows exactly what it is (reminiscent of polling the public option question, too).

Voting: States are still trying to figure out what to do about the new federal law intended to make sure that military ballots from overseas get counted. At least a dozen states are now actively considering moving their September primaries up in the calendar to comply (including Minnesota, Vermont, Delaware, Hawaii, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New York, Rhode Island, and Wisconsin).

NV-Sen/Gov: More Lousy Numbers for the Reid Boys

Mason-Dixon for the Las Vegas Review-Journal (10/6-8, likely voters, 8/17-18 in parens):

Harry Reid (D-inc): 43 (38)

Danny Tarkanian (R): 48 (49)

Harry Reid (D-inc): 39 (40)

Sue Lowden (R): 49 (45)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Hm, you mean that parading around the state with Sarah Palin’s father didn’t result in any Tarkmentum? That’s a head-scratcher. But maybe that sort of thing will play better in the GOP primary:

Sue Lowden (R): 23 (14)

Danny Tarkanian (R): 21 (33)

Sharron Angle (R): 9 (5)

Bill Parson (R): 1

Robin Titus (R): 1

Mike Wiley (R): 1

Undecided: 44 (47)

(MoE: ±6%)

Oh, I… guess not.

Anyhow, the general election numbers speak for themselves. But at least Harry has company even further down the barrel: while his 38-51 favorable rating is bad, at least it’s not John Ensign bad (23-43) or Jim Gibbons bad (14-51). In fact, it’s too bad that Ensign’s term isn’t up next year, because Nevadans apparently can’t wait to kick his sorry ass to the curb: his re-elects are at an abysmal 22%, with 44% saying they’ll vote to eject him from the Senate.

And how about that gubernatorial race? Mason-Dixon looked at a number of scenarios for that contest, too:

Rory Reid (D): 49 (47)

Jim Gibbons (R-inc): 37 (35)

Rory Reid (D): 33 (32)

Brian Sandoval (R): 50 (49)

Oscar Goodman (I): 36

Rory Reid (D): 27

Jim Gibbons (R-inc): 24

Oscar Goodman (I): 33

Rory Reid (D): 25

Brian Sandoval (R): 33

In the GOP primary, Sandoval beats Gibbons by a 41-20 margin. It’s hard to imagine Gibbons finding a way to claw back from oblivion, but it may be amusing to watch him try.

At this point, though, Democrats might be better off asking Goodman, the colorful mayor of Las Vegas, to enter the Democratic gubernatorial primary. He’s the most popular pol in the state (or more accurately, the most popular dude tested by Mason-Dixon), with a surprising 49-9 favorable rating. Rory Reid, meanwhile, is saddled with a 21-29 rating off the starting blocks — which is no match for Sandoval’s shiny 38-7. Yet, Democrats seem content to let Rory take a crack at bat, even when the evidence suggests that Harry is displeased with his son’s efforts to climb the ladder at such an inopportune time. I don’t think it would be too much of a challenge for Goodman, or anybody else with talent, to dispose of Rory in a Democratic primary. Unfortunately, no hypothetical Dem primary match-ups were tested this time around.