MI-Gov: Cherry Drops Out

Big news:

Lt. Gov. John Cherry ended his sputtering Democratic campaign for governor, saying he was unable to raise the money he needed.

“I was not successful in that endeavor to the degree that was needed. With that in mind, I have come to the conclusion that to wage a successful campaign will be difficult at best,” Cherry said in a prepared statement.

Cherry, who had not formally announced his candidacy, expressed disappointment for those who had worked on his campaign and contributed money.

Given that Cherry had some significant troubles in the polls, this move is probably a good thing for Democrats. Perhaps someone with fewer connections to the Granholm administration like Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero will seize upon this opportunity.

UPDATE (Crisituntiy): Politico has a few other tidbits, in a piece provocatively titled “Dems cheer Cherry’s exit from race:” for starters, it sounds like Cherry may have been shown the door (or at least pointed in that direction) by Beltway Democrats.

Cherry was in Washington last month to meet with Democratic officials, where they showed him bleak polling numbers and questioned whether he would be able to win the contest.

The article also states that multiple Democratic sources say state House speaker Andy Dillon will be entering the race. (Dillon has already made his interest in the race known and has shown up often in polls of the Democratic primary, but hasn’t taken official steps yet.) Dillon has had poor relations with organized labor, though, and would probably still draw a serious challenge. Politico also says that Lansing mayor Virg Bernero, as speculated above, is “also expected” to enter the race, although they don’t even rely on unidentified sources for that.

Also, a variety of minor Dems are already in the race and presumably now more motivated to stay in: state Rep. Alma Wheeler Smith, former state Rep. John Freeman, Flint mayor Don Williamson, and MSU trustee (and former football coach) George Perles. The removal of front-running Cherry mightily scrambles the field — but given Cherry’s weak numbers and weak fundraising, we may in fact be better off rolling the dice on someone else here.

RaceTracker Wiki: MI-Gov

MI-Gov: Cherry Lags Republican Opponents

EPIC-MRA for Detroit News/WXYZ-TV/WOOD-TV (10/11-15, “active voters,” 5/18-21 in parentheses)

Primaries:

John Cherry (D): 33 (14)

Alma Wheeler Smith (D): 5 (2)

George Perles (D): 3 (2)

Don Williamson (D): 3 (1)

John Freeman (D): 2 (NA)

Undecided: 54 (26)

Peter Hoekstra (R): 29 (27)

Mike Cox (R): 28 (26)

Mike Bouchard (R): 14 (NA)

Rick Snyder (R): 3 (NA)

Tom George (R): 2 (1)

Undecided: 24 (25)

(MoE: ±4%)

General:

John Cherry (D): 33 (36)

Peter Hoekstra (R): 40 (33)

John Cherry (D): 30 (36)

Mike Cox (R): 45 (35)

John Cherry (D): 30

Mike Bouchard (R): 39

John Cherry (D): 34

Rick Snyder (R): 32

(MoE: ±4%)

We’ve already used the joke “Cherry’s Numbers Are the Pits,” so I won’t bother you with that one again, but the Michigan gubernatorial race is certainly not going in the right direction for the Democrats. The problem right now seems to be that Lt. Gov. John Cherry, front-runner in the Democratic field, is inextricably linked to current Gov. Jennifer Granholm’s administration, which is quite unpopular right now as Michigan suffers from what are in all likelihood the worst economic conditions of any of the 50 states. There seems to have been a lot of decline since the last EPIC-MRA poll in May; while Cherry squeaked past Rep. Peter Hoekstra and AG Mike Cox then, he’s losing by double-digits today. (He does, however, beat businessman Rick Snyder — probably the most moderate option among the Republicans, but also little-known statewide.)

The primary fields have gotten dramatically reshaped since May; on the GOP side, EPIC-MRA previously also included SoS Terri Lynn Land (who has since dropped out) but added Oakland Co. Sheriff Mike Bouchard. And on the Democratic side, they previously included Sen. Debbie Stabenow (bizarre, since she has never expressed interest in the race), Wayne Co. Exec Robert Ficano (ditto), and state House Speaker Andy Dillon (who seems to have simply faded into obscurity) — which would explain why Cherry (and “undecided”) are performing much better in the Dem primary now. Still, with 54% of primary voters undecided, and losing ground in the general, you’ve gotta start wondering if Cherry is the best we can do here.

RaceTracker Wiki: MI-Gov