The latest release of the Political Data Inc. redistricting package allows us to look at the 2010 election results by contest. So, using the congressional results from last election cycle I was able to construct election results as if the Cook plan had been implemented.
An obvious caveat is that these elections never happened. Incumbents who had an easy ride in the existing lines would be fighting a different battle. But it’s also true that the challengers – many of which were unimpressive and unfunded – would be cut from a different mold in a newly competitive seat.
Cook Uncooked Part Deux
12:05AM: Please join us in the new thread.
11:49PM: Mark Kleinschmidt narrowly beat Matt Czajkowski for the mayoral job in Chapel Hill, NC.
11:46PM: Oh, yeah, so the NYC mayoral race was officially called for Bloombo, but it wound up being close – just five points. A lot of people are going to have a lot of ‘splainin’ to do tomorrow.
11:44PM: 85% tallied and Owens still leads 49-45 – about 4,200 votes.
11:41PM: Democrat Anthony Foxx looks to have won the Charlotte mayor’s race by a little more than 3,000 votes. (All precincts are in.)
11:39PM: Out in California’s 10th CD, John Garamendi is up 56-40 with 22% in.
11:35PM: Taegan Goddard says that there are 10K absentees in NY-23.
11:31PM: Good guys with a narrow lead on Washington’s Ref. 71, 52-48. But remember, it can take a long time (even weeks) to count the vote in Washington.
11:28PM: Bad guys pull ahead, 51.6 to 48.4 in Maine.
11:27PM: Also in the NYC burbs, incumbent Dem Andy Spano (Westchester Co. Exec.) is getting destroyed, 58-42. Did anyone see that coming? Down in Hotlanta, Norwood is holding a lead at 45, with Reed at 37. This one looks headed to a run-off.
11:23PM: Ambitious Nassau County (Long Island) Executive Tom Suozzi is leading his Republican challenger by just 1% with half the vote counted. Suozzi would probably run for AG if Cuomo runs for governor – wonder if this might put a crimp in his plans.
11:22PM: Reid Wilson of The Hill: “Several GOP sources telling me they expect Bill Owens (D) to win NY23.”
11:00PM: We are down 52-48 in that PA Sup. Ct. race – 83% reporting. Not good.
10:57PM: A bright ray of sunshine? Owens leading 49-46 with two thirds in.
10:44PM: Dave Weigel says: “WHOA – Hoffman splitting Madison County, where he was leading 2-1 in Siena Poll. Getting ready to say ‘Congressman Bill Owens.'” You can get county results here.
10:33PM: The good guys have won in Kalamazoo.
10:43: Time for some more thread.
10:25PM: Shades of Florida 2000: Apparently, NBC has retracted its call on NYC-Mayor, but the NYT is still loud-n-proud. Bloombo’s lead has widended a bit, with three-quarters of the vote now reporting. But barring some late, wild changes, this is going to be a major story – how all the polls were so wildly wrong (and so many of them, too!), and how establishment Democrats failed to support one of their own.
10:21PM: Dems win a special election in Alabama, taking HD-65 by a 53-47 margin, which was quite a bit closer than expected.
10:17PM: Up in Maine, gay marraige is holding on by 51-49 with 22% in.
10:16PM: With 27% in, Bill Owens is up 51-44-5.
10:13PM: The AP is calling NJ-Gov for Chris Christie.
10:11PM: Man. Bill Thompson is only 0.5% back with over half the vote recorded. What is going on here?
10:07PM: As I’d suspected, Corzine is overperforming a bit in the north and Christie is overperforming in the south. (Maybe those LG picks actually made a difference, too.) Corzine is 49/48 in Bergen (should be 42/47 according to baselines), 68/27 in Essex (should be 64/25), 68/27 in Hudson (should be 61/28), and 52/43 in Passaic (should be 48/41). But Christie is cleaning up down the shore: 31/62 in Monmouth (should be 35/53), 28/66 in Ocean (should be 28/60), and unfortunately, in blue Camden County, where it’s 52/42 (should be 55/33). This balances out to a very close race, but it looks like it’s shading toward Christie.
10:05PM: In NY-23, Owens is still leading even at 15% reporting. He’s at 51%, with Hoffman at 45 and Dede at 5.
9:47PM: NYT calls the NYC mayoral race for Bloombo. Jesus. More than half my adult life has been spent under Republican mayors in NYC, and that ratio is about to get worse. The Times must really know something, though – 17% in and Bloombo leads by little more than 1%.
9:39PM: With 158 of 169 precincts reporting, Dem Anthony Foxx has a 52-48 lead in the Charlotte mayor’s race.
9:35PM: Sorry about the server errors, folks – not a whole lot we can do on our end, I’m afraid. Anyhow, the first few precincts are reporting in NY-23.
9:29PM: Looks like Jon Corzine is underperforming his county baselines just about everywhere. Though it just closed to 49-44-6 Christie with 44% reporting.
9:24PM: Another VA General Assembly Dem incumbent set to bite the dust in HD-83, trailing by 20 points with 82% reporting.
9:22PM: Some results are finally starting to make their way in from the Atlanta mayor’s race.
9:20PM: 52-42-6 Christie with 35% in. Ugh.
9:08PM: 50-43-5 Christie, with 29% reporting.
9:02PM: Polls are now closed in NY. In PA, the Dem Supreme Court candidate is up large with 6% in.
8:56PM: 16% of the vote in so far in New Jersey, and Christie is up 54-40. Don’t fret, though – most of the counties reporting are expected to go heavily to Christie.
8:55PM: Just 4% in so far in Maine – good guys with 56%.
8:52PM: TheUnknown285 says of GA-HD-141: “There will be a runoff. One of the candidates will be the indy Rusty Kidd. The question is: who will be the other candidate? Democrat Darrell Black and Republican Angela Gheesling-McCommon are separated by sixteen votes with seemingly only canvassing and absentees left.”
8:50PM: Johnny LT has a good update on the VA Assembly races. Says Johnny: “So far not looking as bad as it should be for such a large McDonnell victory.”
8:38PM: Just a head’s up for those planning to burn the midnight oil: We may not get the full results of NY-23 tonight, as several towns in St. Lawrence County are having difficulty with their new voting equipment.
8:33PM: Time for some fresh thread. The AP has results for several states: CA | CT | GA | ME | MI | NJ | NY | OH | PA | VA | WA.