Tag: John Sununu

Research 2000 for Concord Monitor (10/17-19, likely voters, 9/22-24 in parens):

Jeanne Shaheen (D): 50 (50)

John Sununu (R-inc): 43 (41)

(MoE: ±4%)

Carol Shea-Porter (D-inc): 48 (44)

Jeb Bradley (R): 43 (43)

(MoE: ±6%)

Paul Hodes (D-inc): 49 (47)

Jennifer Horn (R): 35 (34)

(MoE: ±6%)

Things are looking pretty stable in New Hampshire in the newest round of Research 2000 polls of that state for the Concord Monitor. Probably most notable is the improvement for Carol Shea-Porter, who has posted mostly underwhelming poll numbers this cycle; however, she’s up to a five-point lead from a one-point lead last month. (With a 6% margin of error, though… each CD’s sample seems to be half of the statewide sample… anything could be going on there.)

On the Senate side, John Sununu has gained a couple points on Jeanne Shaheen, probably on the back of major advertising expenditures (he’s got a big warchest; now’s the time to spend it). He’s left with an awful lot of ground to make up over the next few weeks, though.

Obama leads McCain 50-43 at the top of the ticket. And as a bonus, I know everyone has been losing a lot of sleep worrying over the New Hampshire governor’s race; incumbent Dem John Lynch leads John Joe Kenney 60-34.

Suffolk University (9/21-24, likely voters):

Jeanne Shaheen (D): 41

John Sununu (R-inc): 40

Ken Blevens (L): 3

(MoE: ±4%)

We’re getting a deluge of New Hampshire polls now, and we’re getting a wide range of results. Suffolk seems to fall in the ‘we have a real race on our hands’ camp. Throw this on the pile with all the other polls, and it does look like there’s a general tightening trend.

The same sample shows Obama beating McCain 46-45, and governor John Lynch beating Joe Kenney 61 to a pitiable 16.

University of New Hampshire (WMUR Granite State Poll): (9/14-21, likely voters, 7-11/20 in parens)

Jeanne Shaheen (D): 48 (46)

John Sununu (R-inc): 44 (42)

(MoE: ±4.3%)

The University of New Hampshire is back with new polls, and they show a continuation of Shaheen’s four-point lead from July. The July poll was considered a bit out-of-whack at the time, but this week’s poll seems more in line with overall polling trends: still a consistent Shaheen lead (with the exception of that recent wacky Rasmussen poll), but now within the margin of error instead of out in double-digit land. Encouragingly, Sununu’s favorables are dropping, down to 44% from over 50 in July. The same sample gives McCain a 47-45 lead.

University of New Hampshire (WMUR Granite State Poll): (9/14-21, likely voters, 7-11/20 in parens)

Carol Shea-Porter (D-inc): 42 (40)

Jeb Bradley (R): 45 (46)

Undecided 12 (14)

(MoE: ±6.2%)

Paul Hodes (D-inc): 38 (43)

Jennifer Horn (R): 26 (23)

Undecided 33 (32)

(MoE: ±6.0%)

UNH also takes a look at the two Congressional races in New Hampshire. Carol Shea-Porter continues to trail Jeb Bradley (now by 3) in the rematch of their 2006 race in NH-01. The gap has closed a bit from last time, probably as Jeb Bradley emerges from an acrimonious primary covered in mud. Shea-Porter has only a 44% favorable rating (up significantly from the previous sample), but Bradley is even worse at 36% favorable, down from nearly 50 last time, which indicates that his primary battle with John Stephen may have mortally wounded him. Shea-Porter maintains a financial edge and can count on DCCC help, but this still looks to be a close race come November.

The other freshman representative, Paul Hodes, is in much better shape in the more Dem-leaning NH-02, giving Hodes the tie-breaker in the battle of dueling internals we saw earlier this week. Hodes is up by 12, although note the huge number of undecideds in this race (which has only grown since the GOP primary was resolved).

Playing “spot the methodological weaknesses in the UNH poll” has become a favorite netroots pastime, and there are a few things to point out: each of the Congressional samples is only half of the statewide sample, leaving them with sample sizes of only 252 and 271, and enormous 6% MoEs. In addition, these samples seem especially heavy on the Republicans (although New Hampshire may be one state where old school New England Republicans retain their registration even as they increasingly vote Democratic as the national GOP devolves into Theocon Central). This is especially glaring in the 2nd District, where the sample includes 60 Democrats and 91 Republicans (50% more).

ARG (8/18-20, likely voters, 7/21 in parentheses):

Jeanne Shaheen (D): 52 (58)

John Sununu (R-inc): 41 (36)

(MoE: ±4.0%)

Ahoy there, me hearties! Cap’n Jeanne Shaheen be sendin’ th’ scurvy dog John Sununu on a voyage to Davy Jones’ locker, or so say the landlubbers at ARRRRRRRRRRRRG! Ye olde poll may have been a foul outlier, but that scalawag Sununu’s numbers still put him in more trouble than a bilge rat tryin’ to swim the Channel.

Joe Kenney also looks t’ take a long walk off a short plank, 58-32, as Lord Governor John Lynch will be dancin’ a spirited hornpipe come November.

Rasmussen (7/23, likely voters) (6/18 in parentheses):

Jeanne Shaheen (D): 50 (53)

John Sununu (R-inc.): 45 (39)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

The UNH poll that came out yesterday showing a 46-42 lead for Shaheen seemed pretty sketchy, especially when looking at the crosstabs. But now along comes the newest poll from Rasmussen and it shows a margin that’s also narrowed quite a bit. (With leaners pushed, it’s 51-45 for Shaheen.)

The same sample shows Obama leading McCain 47-41 (49-45 when leaners are pushed), which is typical for New Hampshire. Just based on that, it doesn’t seem to be an unusually Republican-heavy sample.

Just as we were all settling into the idea that former Governor Jeanne Shaheen's victory in the Senate race this fall was a given, along comes a Granite State poll with some sobering news:

Jeanne Shaheen (D): 46 
John Sununu (R, inc): 42
(MoE: ±4.3%)

Why is this happening?  Has Shaheen not been running enough advertisements?  Have donors been loath to give money to Shaheen's campaign, assuming that this would be a repeat of Casey-Santorum '06, already in the bag?  I worry that these numbers may reflect a complacency in the Democratic base, one that could come back to haunt us on Election Day, and not just in New Hampshire.  Your thoughts?

UPDATE (James L.): I think the answer to the question that CC poses in the title is “no”. I think it’s important to take a look at Miss Laura’s analysis of UNH’s shoddy methodology, including their wildly gyrating sample — one that became 1.6% less Democratic and 3.9% more Republican since April. Shaheen is the only candidate in this race who has gone up on the airwaves with advertisements, and her fundraising has been stellar.

OK, get all the pirate-themed ARG jokes out of your system. Ready now?

American Research Group (likely voters, 6/13-17):

Jeanne Shaheen (D): 54

John Sununu (R-inc): 40

(MoE: ±4%)

Jeanne Shaheen still faces a big campaign funds shortfall compared with the loaded Sununu, but the polls have consistently had this one in Casey/Santorum wipeout territory, and this is no exception. She owes her edge to indies: Shaheen is up 53-38 among independent and undeclared voters.

Of course, that’s peanuts compared with the beat-down that popular incumbent governor John Lynch is administering to state senator Joseph Kenney, as he seeks another term.

John Lynch (D-inc): 65

Joseph Kenney (R): 21

(MoE: ±4%)

Bear in mind, though, that the top line of the poll also has Obama beating McCain 51-39, so this may be an overly Democratic sample. (Or else the McCain campaign is completely imploding, and there’s enough polling evidence over the last week to actually suggest that.)

Jeanne Shaheen has bounced back in the latest ARG

poll, taking a 47% to 33% lead over John Sununu.

The swing is nearly all from independents, who now favor Shaheen 61-13(!).  And 26% of independents are undecided, so they will decide the race as Sununu wins GOP voters 81-1.

I think race has a lot more twists and turns (and swings) ahead.

If Bob Novak is correct, then John Sununu must be looking for a new pair of pants. The Prince of Darkness is reporting that Former Governor Jeanne Shaheen is very likely to enter the Senate race.

New Hampshire: Former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen (D) and her husband are telling supporters that she there is about a 70 percent chance that she will run for Senate against Sen. John Sununu (R). There is no need for her to move too quickly, since the state is currently consumed with presidential politics, and she already has universal name recognition there.

I hope she announces soon so the other canddiates can decide what to do. Until Shaheen confirms this herself, I wil continue to support Steve Marchand. Either way, New Hampshire is looking blue in 2008.

A new ARG poll released today shows former New Hampshire Gov. Jeanne Shaheen with a 10 point lead over incumbent Republican Sen. John Sununu.

Jeanne Shaheen  44%
John Sununu  34%

http://bluesunbelt.c…