Tag: NC-04

CT-Sen: It feels as thought we’ve been partying like it’s 1994 in more ways that one this cycle. One major throwback has been Republicans who can’t control teh crazy and insist, Newt Gingrich-style, on calling for the abolition of the Department of Education. In fact, Linda McMahon did `em one better, telling some teabaggers that she would also consider getting rid of the Department of Energy and the Environmental Protection Agency. I don’t understand whatever cultural bug Republicans have up their ass about the Dept. of Education, but suffice it to say that when you say you want to get rid of it, it sounds like you want to cut education funding, period. So please, keep saying that.

DE-Sen: A GOP source tells Politico that Mike Castle is fielding a poll to test his chances as a write-in. Castle has until Sept. 30th to file a statement with the elections board, something a spokesman said is an “under 5%” chance.

AL-Gov: We’ve seen all kinds of unexpected touting of seemingly sucky internal polls this cycle, but this may be one of the roughest. Dem Ron Sparks is saying that a poll by Capital Survey Research Center showing him down 52-39 to Republican Robert Bentley is “good news,” because a July survey had Sparks behind by 22. (Technically this isn’t an internal, but rather was produced by Dem-allied teachers union Alabama Education Association.)

FL-22: Allen West is out with what the Palm Beach Post is terming a “brushfire” poll (n=300) from Wilson Research Strategies that has him up 48-42 over Ron Klein. A recent Klein internal had almost opposite numbers, 48-40 for the Dem.

NC-04: This is a couple of weeks old, but repeat Republican candidate B.J. Lawson claims to have an internal poll from robopollster Action Solutions, purporting to show him up 47-46 over Rep. David Price. But, cautions Dave Wasserman of the Cook Political Report: “This isn’t your standard polling outfit. This is an outfit that most in Washington would not consider reputable.” Lawson only has $50K on hand (though Price only has $300K), and got crushed last time out, 63-37. His fundraising also seems to be off from his 2008 pace, when he took in half a million (he’s raised just $150K this cycle).

RI-01: Dem David Cicilline is out with a comforting poll from the Feldman Group, showing him up 53-38 over Republican John Loughlin.

VA-05: I’m almost getting tired of keeping track of these, but anyhow… the NRA is expected to endorse Dem Tom Perriello.

NY-AG: A couple of pollsters also took a look at the AG’s race in their recent New York polling packages. Quinnipiac, unsurprisingly, finds a close race: Dem Eric Schneiderman is at 37 while Republican Dan Donovan is at 36. Siena (PDF) paints a somewhat different picture, showing Schneiderman up 45-32 over Donovan. Both men have very low name rec in both polls, and the both hold voters of their own parties equally well. Donovan has small leads among independents in both surveys.

SSP TV:

• AR-02: Tim Griffin (R)
• AZ-08: Jesse Kelly (R)
• FL-25: Pro-Joe Garcia (D) airs ads attacking David Rivera (R) (if you find links to the actual ads, let usk know in comments)
• IL-11: Adam Kinzinger (R)
• IL-14: Rep. Bill Foster (D)
• KS-04: Raj Goyle (D)
• MI-09: Rep. Gary Peters (D)
• NV-03: Joe Heck (R)
• OH-01: Rep. Steve Driehaus (D)
• VA-09: Rep. Rick Boucher (D)

Independent Expenditures:

• Women Vote!: Aka EMILY’s List puts in $80K (TV) against Joe Heck (R) in NV-03, $23K (mail) for Julie Lassa (D) in WI-07, and $32K (mail) against Roy Blunt (R) in MO-Sen
• MI-07: The Communications Workers of America put in $100K (TV) against Tim Walberg (R)
• OR-04: Conservative front group Concerned Taxpayers of America puts in $86K (TV) for Art Robinson (R)

• AR-Sen: Could Arkansas even handle one more Republican in its Senate field, without the entire state collapsing into a singularity? Looks like we’ll find out, as former state Sen. Tim Jim Holt says he’s considering a rematch. Holt, you’ll recall, was Lincoln’s 2004 opposition, coming within 56-44 while running a low-budget, socially conservative campaign.

• AZ-Sen, AZ-Gov: The Cronkite-Eight Poll (conducted by Arizona St. Univ.) finds that AG Terry Goddard is in great shape against incumbent Republican Gov. Jan Brewer; Goddard wins the matchup 47-28. They don’t test any other potential matchups (including the Joe Arpaio possibility, which is suddenly on people’s minds). They also have good news! for John McCain, who beats the unlikely-to-run ex-Gov. Janet Napolitano 50-41. They don’t test the potential McCain/J.D. Hayworth primary. And speaking of Hayworth, I may have been more right than I thought about that throwaway “grifting” comment yesterday. Hayworth has been soliciting donations to pay down his campaign debt, but a quick look at the FEC’s 2008 termination report for Hayworth’s campaign indicates $0 CoH and $0 debt.

• MA-Sen: Rasmussen’s newest poll of the Massachusetts Senate primary shows the closest race that anyone has seen — although AG Martha Coakley is still in pole position. She’s at 36%, followed by Rep. Michael Capuano at 21 (about where he was in the recent Globe poll) and Stephen Pagliuca at 14. The big gainer here (and where the chunk of Coakley votes may have gone) is Alan Khazei, who hasn’t broken out of single digits before but is now also at 14.

• NY-Sen-B: I see lots of weird rumors in my day-to-day work here, and this one is among the weirdest: it has ex-Rep. Harold Ford Jr. (of Tennessee) considering running against Kirsten Gillibrand in the New York senate primary. Ford has been living in New York for the last few years (and is currently an executive at Merrill Lynch — not exactly a good political launching pad these days), so his run would at least be legal, but it’s not clear whether he has the name rec among anyone but news junkies to overcome his lack of roots there. Glenn Thrush actually sources the whole thing to a comment from Democratic Underground, of all places, from a person claiming to have been polled by Ford. Also, a sort-of famous name was considering running as a Republican in the Senate race, but just decided against it: Theodore Roosevelt IV, a wealthy investment banker and environmentalist who sounds, like his great-grandpappy, like he doesn’t have much in common with today’s Republicans.

• VA-Gov: T-Mac may yet be back. Terry McAuliffe is in a high-profile effort to lure a factory to southern Virginia, suggesting to some that he’s trying to remain in Virginia politics, trying to build up chits in the rural parts of the state with an eye toward a 2013 run.

• KS-03: Roll Call highlights a powwow held by the Kansas GOP for potential candidates in the open seat race in the 3rd, and list a few more names that we haven’t heard yet. In addition to likely frontrunner ex-state Sen. Nick Jordan, also present were attorney Greg Musil, former county commission candidate Charlotte O’Hara, state Sen. Karin Brownlee, and state GOP chair Amanda Adkins. State Rep. Kevin Yoder is also running for the GOP, and state Sen. Jeff Colyer and surgeon Steve Reintjes are also listed as GOP possibilities.

• NC-04: We may have a winner for the worst-designed candidate website of all time, from Republican George Hutchins, running against Rep. David Price in the safe 4th. It looks like he ate a lot of pictures of Ronald Reagan and then vomited them all over a flag.

• NJ-03: Former Philadelphia Eagle Jon Runyan confirmed that he’ll be running against freshman Dem Rep. John Adler. Strangely, though, he doesn’t have any immediate plans to start fundraising or hitting the ground in the district; instead, he’s starting a new job. He’ll be playing for the San Diego Chargers for the rest of the season. Maybe his plan is to put all the money he earns toward his campaign, but it doesn’t seem like the right way to get off on the right foot.

• NY-23: So, maybe ACORN didn’t steal the election after all. Doug Hoffman has, by my estimation, now re-re-conceded (after two unconcessions), saying he won’t challenge the election results or ask for a recount, and that the final count of absentee ballots “reaffirm the fact that Bill Owens won.” Hoffman promises to stay active in politics; let’s hope he’s as effective in the campaign in 2010 as he was in the election’s aftermath this year.

• WV-03: Another long-time Democrat in a newly-Republican-leaning Appalachian district is facing a challenge instead of usual free path to re-election, but this time it’s a challenge from a fellow elected Dem. State Rep. Ralph Rodighiero has filed a pre-candidacy to run against Rep. Nick Rahall, who’s been in the House since the 1970s. Rodighiero sounds like he’s running at the behest of coal industry figures; although Rahall voted against cap and trade, the Natural Resources chair has tried to strike more of a balance on environmental issues than they might prefer (and with almost zero Republican bench in this district, this is their only foot in the door).

• IA-St. House: Dems held their own in a special election last night, retaining a Dem-controlled seat in Cedar Rapids. Democrat Kirsten Running-Marquardt got 75% of the vote against Republican Joshua Thurston in HD-33.