SSP Daily Digest: 12/30

Dave’s Redistricting App: If you use Dave’s App, please don’t close your browser window/tab when you take a break. Whenever you load a new instance of the app, it causes a big bandwidth hit, especially when you open up New York state. So to help Dave conserve bandwidth, leave your browser open once you’ve loaded whatever you’re working on until you’re finished with that project. Thanks! (D)

AZ-Sen: Ex-Rep. J.D. Hayworth says that he may be ready to start “testing the waters” for a primary challenge to John McCain. Hayworth was recently seen in D.C., holding a joint fundraiser with Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio that raked in $100,000. Hayworth’s share of the proceeds went directly to help alleviate his outstanding legal bills.

CT-Sen: Well, this is awkward. Before Chris Dodd led the attacks on AIG for its executive compensation fiasco, Dodd was in AIG’s offices, collecting checks from their employees.

MA-Sen: Republican Scott Brown has launched the first ad of his campaign, making a totally cheeseball comparison between himself and JFK.

NY-Gov: Basil Paterson, David’s dad and former SoS, raises the ugly specter of the 2002 gubernatorial primary between Carl McCall and Andrew Cuomo as some kind of “warning” to Cuomo. (D)

AL-05: As we expected, PSC Commissioner Susan Parker has turned down the opportunity to challenge Parker Griffith in 2010. This leaves Democrats without a top shelf candidate, but there are other options worth considering. One potential candidate, state Rep. Randy Hinshaw, talks with Left in Alabama about the campaign that he’d like to see the Democratic nominee run. Doc’s Political Parlor hears that Deborah Bell Paseur is unlikely to run, and that Hinshaw is “as likely as anyone” to go for it. Madison County Commissioner Bob Harrison is also thinking about it.

CA-19: The Defenders of Wildlife are gearing up to do whatever it takes to prevent Richard Pombo from re-entering Congress (as he is considering), even if it means supporting another conservative Republican for the seat of retiring GOP Rep. George Radanovich. Meanwhile, Taniel notes that ex-Fresno mayor Jim Patterson is a Club For Growth protege — so this could be a pretty lively primary.

LA-03: State Rep. Nickie Monica has become the first Republican to file for the seat of Dem Rep. Charlie Melancon.

TX-10: Foreign policy consultant Dan Grant, who lost a 2008 Democratic primary to local celebrity judge Larry Joe Doherty, has taken his name out of consideration as a last-minute replacement for businessman Jack McDonald, who withdrew his candidacy for the seat of GOP Rep. Mike McCaul last week.

NC-10: Here’s something interesting we missed a while back: Iredell County Commissioner Scott Keadle is challenging Rep. Patrick McHenry in the GOP primary, and he’s backed his play with $250K of his own money. It’s not really clear what exactly Keadle’s beef with McHenry is – he seems to be running a 1994-esque campaign, accusing McHenry (who’s only held office since 2005) of turning into a “career politician,” and pledging to serve no more than three terms himself. (Hat-tip: Reader IR) (D)

VA State Sen: Hotline on Call takes a look at a crucial special election between ex-Fairfax Co. School Board member Steve Hunt (R) and Del. Dave Marsden (D). Marsden and Hunt are running to replace Republican AG-elect Ken Cuccinelli. If Democrats somehow win the seat, they’d be able to pad their razor-thin majority in the Senate to 22-18.

NYC-Mayor: The Swing State Project has gotten its hands on the precinct-by-precinct results for the 2009 New York City mayor’s race. You can also check out our entire storehouse of obscure election returns and otherwise-unpublished polling memos at the SSP Document Collection. For some tasty eye candy and analysis, SSP Research Bureau Chief jeffmd has put together some beautiful maps comparing Thompson’s performance to Obama’s. (D)

Polltopia: Pick PPP’s next state polling target: Alabama, Connecticut, Illinois, Florida or Massachusetts.  

AL-05: Sparks Unlikely to Run

Well, nothing’s official, but check out this press release that found its way into my inbox:

Gubernatorial candidate Ron Sparks will hold press conferences on Tuesday, December 29 to discuss the his campaign for Governor and next year’s race for the 5th Congressional District seat in North Alabama.  The press conferences will be held at:

Huntsville: 10:00 a.m., Madison County Courthouse Steps

100 Northside Square

Birmingham: 1:30 p.m., Linn Park

Montgomery: 4:00 p.m., Sparks campaign headquarters, 4240 Carmichael Rd

If you’re announcing that you’re running for Congress, you usually don’t take your announcement tour on the road to places outside the district (Birmingham and Montgomery) that you’re supposedly interested in representing. While I suppose Chris Van Hollen still has some time on the clock to make a last minute plea, I don’t think you should hold your breath. Ron Sparks seems to think that he has a good shot at being Alabama’s next Governor. I think he’ll eventually come to regret this choice, but that’s just my take.

So what’s next? If the DCCC is smart, they’ll lean hard on Public Service Commissioner Susan Parker, who was the candidate they should have lined up behind in 2008. However, while Parker hasn’t officially ruled out the race, I’m hearing credible word that it’s more likely that she’ll run for re-election to the PSC. Democrats would then have to settle for someone further down the totem pole — one such name that I’ve heard being considered is Deborah Bell Paseur, a former district judge who narrowly lost a race for Alabama’s Supreme Court in 2008. But I’m sure we’ll hear more names in the coming days.

UPDATE: This tweet says that Sparks isn’t running.

RaceTracker Wiki: AL-05