Tag: NC-11

In the wake of Republican candidate Carl Mumpower’s suspension and resurrection of his campaign, the Republican organizations of three counties in North Carolina’s 11th district are formally severing ties with the “unique” candidate:

Party officials in Polk and Jackson counties made public Wednesday that their organizations had voted to sever ties with the controversial Republican candidate.

The news comes in the wake of Henderson County’s announcement Tuesday that the county party was no longer coordinating with Mumpower’s campaign. […]

Jackson County Republican Party Chairwoman Dodie Allen said she and her party have been upset with Mumpower for weeks, prompting them to vote unanimously to sever ties. The county’s GOP leaders were particularly incensed when Mumpower said he would support the impeachment of President Bush for not enforcing immigration laws, Allen said.

“We were much opposed to that method of disagreement to chop his head off,” Allen said. “You might as well shoot him in the head with a .45.”

The response was classic Mumpower:

“Angry, wounded elephants tend to run in circles,” a defiant Mumpower told the Times-News in a phone interview Wednesday. “One cannot effect change if one is not willing to take the heat. These counties are giving me heat, and I can take it.”

Say, I wonder: Is our good friend Ken Spain over at the NRCC still “excited about him winning the nomination”? I’m sure he’s thrilled. After all, the NRCC has put together “one of the best Republican recruitment classes in quite some time”, and Democrat Heath Shuler was one of their top targets at the start of the cycle.

SSP currently rates this race as Safe Democratic.

A wise man once said: “You can’t stop the Mumpower! You can only hope to contain it.”

Consider him contained:

Republican Congressional candidate Carl Mumpower has suspended his campaign to unseat incumbent Heath Shuler, saying he’ll eliminate about 80 percent of formal campaigning until at least half of the Republican leaders in the 15 counties in the 11th Congressional District commit to core party principles.

“I’m not going to be doing any fundraising or advertising-there won’t be any active campaigning for the Republican Party,” Mumpower said this morning. “I’ll put things on hold until I get party officials to commit to the principles and to the process of holding elected officials accountable.”

Needless to say, the NRCC, who once spoke glowingly about Mumpower, is now incredibly embarrassed to have handed over this district to him.

SSP rates this race as “Safe Democratic“.

Republicans talked a good game at the start of the cycle about the wealth of pick-up opportunities they had in 2008. SSP favorite Tom Cole, boasted of his party’s chances in the Almanac of American Politics that “2008 will be a year to hunt with a shotgun, not a rifle.” Sure, but look who’s holding the gun now.

One such district that the GOP hoped to put in play was North Carolina’s 11th CD, an R+7 district that supported Bush by a 14-point margin in 2004. But things haven’t gone exactly as planned.

First, ex-Rep. Charles Taylor, whom Shuler beat by a healthy margin in ’06, dithered on whether he’d seek a rematch for most of 2007, putting a serious damper on candidate recruitment. When all was said and done, the GOP was left with two recruits: Asheville City Councilor Carl Mumpower and Henderson Co. GOP Chair Spence Campbell. While Campbell had more fundraising potential (he had raised and self-funded a total of $217K through April 16), Mumpower won the May 6th primary.

A Mumpower candidacy brings a number of problems for Republicans. First, he’s not exactly well-funded. As of April 16, he’s only raised $27,000 and has $2000 on-hand. And it sure doesn’t sound like the situation is going to improve any time soon:

Republican candidate for Congress in the 11th Congressional District Carl Mumpower sees a new path to Capital Hill, and it is paved with $5 bills. Mumpower launched a new campaign strategy to fund his run for Congress with $5 donations. Called the “Lincoln Campaign,” the effort seeks to distance Mumpower from political action committees and large-dollar donors.

“I am committed to not accepting any PAC, union, party, or other special interest monies to help me buy a seat in,” Mumpower said in a released statement.

Yup, that’s right — his fundraising will come in $5 increments. He even told the NRCC to shove it:

“I got a call from the NRCC (National Republican Congressional Committee) earlier today,” Mumpower said Wednesday afternoon. “And I told them we were not interested in their money. I believe that organization has passively supported our leadership in abandoning their principles, and I have no interest in aligning myself with a self-serving organization.”

Mumpower said he got quite a reaction for that stance.

“I think they were a little stunned,” Mumpower said. “Maybe there’s a better word for that. I think they were a little surprised. But I’m not interested in the tail wagging the dog. I’m going to run an authentic maverick campaign.”

In this case, I definitely think we can all agree that Mumpower actually is running an “authentic maverick campaign.” Take his recent comments arguing that President Bush should be impeached for his failure to adequately protect the border. That might be one way to “distance yourself” from an unpopular president, but it’s not going to help you raise the funds and profile needed to defeat an incumbent who hasn’t made any fireable offenses in his first term in office.

Due to Mumpower’s sheer flakiness, SSP is changing its rating of this race from Likely Democratic to Safe Democratic.

SSP’s full House race ratings are available here.

The latest California Field Poll has Shwarzenegger up by double digits but still under 50%. Feinstein also up by double digits, with slight slippage within the MOE. Unfortunetly no polling on the “down the ticket” or Congressional races.

11/1/2006 MOE 3.5% Both Polls

Gov:

Shwarzenegger 49 (44)

Angelides 33 (34)

Other 6 (7)

Undecided 12 (15)

Angelides is only leading in LA County-42% to 36% and tied in the SF Bay Area, not good news. Looks like the Gropenator will pull this out but interesting that he still hasn’t popped 50%. 78% believe Shwarzenegger will win.

Sen:

Feinstein 55  (57)

Mountjoy 33  (29)

Other  4 (6)

Undecided 8 (8)

No regional info. Interesting slip though its within the MOE and I only just saw my first Feinstein TV Ad today.

AZ-08

Zogby(Reuters). 10/24-29. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/25-10/2 results)

Graf (R) 41 (37)

Giffords (D) 54 (45)

CO-07

Zogby (Reuters). 10/24-29. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/25-10/2 results)

O’Donnell (R) 40 (34)

Perlmutter (D) 54 (45)

CT-02

Zogby (Reuters). 10/24-29. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/25-10/2 results)

Simmons (R) 47 (44)

Courtney (D) 42 (41)

CT-04

Zogby (Reuters). 10/24-29. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/25-10/2 results)

Shays (R) 44 (41)

Farrell (D) 51 (46)

IL-06

Zogby (Reuters). 10/24-29. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/25-10/2 results)

Roskam (R) 40 (38)

Duckworth (D) 54 (43)

IN-02

Zogby (Reuters). 10/24-29. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/25-10/2 results)

Chocola (R) 39 (39)

Donnelly (D) 52 (49)

IN-09

Zogby for Reuters. 10/24-29. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/25-10/2 results)

Sodrel (R) 46 (38)

Hill (D) 48 (46)

IA-01

Zogby(Reuters). 10/24-29. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/25-10/2 results)

Whalen (R) 42 (34)

Braley (D) 49 (47)

KY-04

Zogby(Reuters). 10/24-29. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/25-10/2 results)

Davis (R) 42 (42)

Lucas (D) 45 (36)

MN-06

Zogby (Reuters). 10/24-29. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/25-10/2 results)

Bachmann (R) 52 (46)

Wetterling (D) 42 (43)

NM-01

Zogby for Reuters. 10/24-29. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/25-10/2 results)

Wilson (R) 44 (40)

Madrid (D) 53 (50)

NC-11

Zogby (Reuters). 10/24-29. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/25-10/2 results)

Taylor (R) 43 (40)

Shuler (D) 48 (51)

OH-18

Zogby (Reuters). 10/24-29. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/25-10/2 results)

Padgett (R) 33 (36)

Space (D) 58 (45)

PA-06

Zogby (Reuters). 10/24-29. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/25-10/2 results)

Gerlach (R) 44 (41)

Murphy (D) 49 (43)

VIRGINIA (2nd CD)

Zogby (Reuters). 10/24-29. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/25-10/2 results)

Drake (R) 51 (42)

Kellam (D) 43 (46)