PA-St. House: Primary results improve Democratic chances

With everything else on the ballot this past Tuesday (several high-profile congressional and gubernatorial primaries, as well as the PA-12 special election), the Pennsylvania State House primaries went somewhat under the radar.  But as the Pottstown Mercury explains, the results in some key races have put Democrats in a significantly better position to hold the chamber this November:  

Lehigh County Republican Rep. Karen Beyer lost to a 23-year-old upstart who attacked her for supporting budget deals negotiated by Democratic Gov. Ed Rendell and for collecting taxpayer-funded perks.

Rep. Mike Gerber, D-Montgomery, his caucus’ leading campaign strategist, said he was encouraged by the results in Beyer’s race, as well as the Republican primary for the Williamsport-area district currently held by freshman Rep. Rick Mirabito, D-Lycoming.

In the Williamsport race, the Republican who Mirabito beat two years ago defeated a more moderate candidate who last held the seat.

Gerber said he also was pleased with the quality of his party’s winners in multi-candidate races to fill vacancies. Those races will largely determine which party claims the majority come January. Republicans are working to regain majority control of the House, currently held 104-to-99 by the Democrats (…)

As a rule, the DLCC generally does not get directly involved in primary elections.  However, we share Rep. Gerber’s enthusiasm for the Democratic winners in open-seat contests (there are 19 open seats in the State House this year), and we agree that Democrats are more likely now to hold the House than we were two days ago.  

Rep. Gerber also serves as the Treasurer of the DLCC’s Board of Directors.

Holding the Pennsylvania House is one of the top Democratic priorities this year because of Redistricting.  Republicans dominated the state’s redistricting process in 2000 and drew one of the ugliest Republican gerrymanders in the country.  The Republican-drawn congressional maps forced six incumbent Democrats to run against each other and turned a one-seat Republican advantage in Pennsylvania’s congressional delegation into a five-seat advantage.    

Democrats fought back in 2006 and 2008, helped by demographic changes and a poisonous national climate for Republicans, but right now the Democratic State House is the key to preventing Republicans from wiping out those gains all over again.  

Arkansas primary analysis

Now that the dust has settled and I’ve had time to reflect, I wanted to post a quick analysis of what happened in Arkansas last night, from a progressive Arkie’s perspective.  Keep in mind, this is only meant to be an analysis of last night, and of nothing that’s to come.  I don’t think it’s a perfect analysis, but it is my take.

First, let’s start with the biggie, the AR-Sen race.

Dem primary-Obviously, it was a big night for Halter supporters like myself.  Bill cleaned up in places I never imagined-dominating southwest Arkansas and picking up counties in Lincoln’s home turf-Cross, St. Francis, Greene, Poinsett, etc.  What was odd was the fact that Lincoln won a few places where Halter was thought to be running strong in, namely Pulaski County, where Halter is from.  There’s an interesting explanation for this, and I wouldn’t have thought of it myself if one of my associates on Blue Arkansas hadn’t pointed it out.  Halter is running an anti-establishment campaign.  You don’t get more establishment in Arkansas Democratic politics than Pulaski County.  There has been a charge put out there that Halter drew in “GOP good ol’ boys”.  It’s true that Halter did do better in rural, more conservative areas (which should put the electability suggestion Lincoln is trying to peddle to rest).  However, I don’t think these count as Republican voters per se.  They are socially conservative, but they don’t necessarily think government doesn’t work.  They just think it’s not working for them.  Halter’s populist message, I think, is resonating.

GOPer primary-With all the excitement on the Dem side, John Boozman was able to quietly walk to victory.  Gilbert Baker’s campaign flamed out as he got more desperate for attention, becoming incredibly ridiculous.  (Go to youtube and type in “sexy Arkansas cheerleader politician”.)  The real drama, if there was any, was waiting to see if Jim Holt pulled into a runoff.  If that had happened, Boozman could have been the next Trey Grayson.  Sadly, it wasn’t to be.

AR-01:

Dems-former state senator Tim Wooldridge and Berry CoS Chad Causey have advanced to the runoff.  We at Blue Arkansas were backing State Representative David Cook, a more progressive, populist style candidate, but he ended up placing third, the cash advantage being the problem.  Wooldridge made it to this runoff by virtue of his name recognition from his Lt. Gov race against Halter.  Causey by his connections to Berry.

GOP-Rick Crawford easily beat my old high school classmate Princella Smith.  How many Republicans in Arkansas do you think really were enthusiastic about voting for a black woman?

AR-02:

Dems-State senator Joyce Elliott (a progressive hero in the state) surged to an incredibly high total in the initial primary that no one had expected.  State house speaker Robbie Wills won everywhere outside Pulaski County, but not by impressive margins.  High African American and progressive turnout was responsible for the Elliott surge.

GOP-Tim Griffin easily raised/spent far more money than his opponent, who did have some significan endorsements from folks like Mike Huckabee, the cash advantage carrying him over.

AR-03:

GOP primary-Weird dynamics in this one.  Steve Womack (Rogers mayor) has been labeled as a RINO in the primary.  Keep in mind, this is a man who’s so nutty on immigration George Bush said he was an extremist.  Cecile Bledsoe managed to inch past Gunner Delay to challenge Womack in the runoff.

Statewide offices:

Two statewide office races were particularly noteworthy, the Secretary of State race and the Land Commissioner’s race.  In both races, young, more progressive minded candidate running on ideas (Pulaski county clerk Pat O’Brien and businessman L.J. Bryant respectively) both surged to face establishment candidates in the Dem runoff (current Land Comm. Mark Wilcox in the SoS race and state rep. Monty Davenport in the Land Commissioner’s race).  This is a big deal, as these offices are usually where Arkansas sends old politicians to retire, as in the case of our former Land Commissioner, current Sec. of State, and future Auditor Charlie Daniels.  The fact that more issues oriented progressive policy wonks did so well last night is a huge deal for the state.

State legislature-Nothing dramatic on the state legislative front, except for maybe two things.  The large black turnout in Pulaski county lead to the defeat of state representative Richard Carroll, the former Green turned Democrat, at the hands of state senator Tracy Steele.  The saddest blow was this-Jay Barth, a great progressive running to be the first openly gay man elected to the state senate, was defeated after his opponent Linda Poindexter Chesterfield, ran an ad raising his sexual orientation and accusing him of racism for questioning her missed votes as a state rep.  (Chesterfield is black and said that doing so amounted to playing to the stereotype of blacks as lazy.)  For me, that was the lowest moment of the night.  However, there was one good moment as Fayetteville sent a true progressive to the legislature, Greg Leding.

Arkansas, Oregon & Pennsylvania Results Thread #3

3:07am: The AR-03 (R) runoff has been called for Womack and Bledsoe.

1:52am: OR-01’s R primary has finally been called by the AP for Rob Cornilles, who beat opponents Keller and Kuzmanich 40-29-28. We’re still waiting on one race: which wingnut squeaks into the Republican runoff in AR-03 against Steve Womack: will it be Cecile Bledsoe or Gunner DeLay? Bledsoe has pulled into a tiny lead (13% each, with a 182 vote spread, with 510 of 533 reporting).

12:54am: The AP has called the OR-Gov GOP primary for Chris Dudley. I forget which pundit made the point, but this sets up possibly the tallest major election ever, if you laid the two candidates end-to-end. At any rate, I think Dudley poses less of a challenge for Kitz than would Alley, who came across more, uh, substantial.

12:49am: Two last races out there. In the wingnut central that is AR-03, Gunner DeLay and Cecile Bledsoe are duking it out for the right to go into a runoff with Steve Womack (91% counted). And in OR-01, Rob Cornilles has a 10-point lead over Douglas Keller, but the vote’s still being counted.

12:42am: The AP calls PA-06 (D) for Manan Trivedi and PA-17 (R) for Dave Argall.

12:34am: All 100% are reporting in PA-17 as well, and David Argall seems to have won, beating Frank Ryan 32-31 (with a 900 vote spread). AP hasn’t called this one, yet.

12:22am: Trivedi wins! 100% in according to the AP, and he’s up 21,338 to 20,667, a 50.8% to 49.2% victory! WOOHOO!!!! GREAT NIGHT!

12:12am: Manan Trivedi is up 672 votes, and it looks like there are very few if any precincts outstanding. Hard to tell, though, since the SoS doesn’t say, and AP is lagging.

12:09am: AP calls OR-05 (R) for Scott Bruun. He’ll face freshman Rep. Kurt Schrader in the fall.

12:05am: Alright, where’s the foul up with the PA-19 (R) numbers? According to the AP, Rep. Todd Platts dispatched his primary challenger, Michael Smeltzer, with ease – 70-30. But the PA SoS shows him barely surviving, at 54-46. State Rep. Eugene DePasquale (D) tweets at us that the 70-30 figure is correct.

12:03am: Ah well – the AP says John Boozman won’t face a runoff. Fortunately, the Dem runoff in Arkansas is in just three weeks, so we won’t face a prolonged exposure like we do in NC (six weeks).

12:02am: The clock’s struck midnight, and as we like to say around here, we’re getting down to stems and seeds, folks. The AP has called PA-03 (R) for Mike Kelly, who wins with 28% to Paul Huber’s 26%.

11:59pm: A moment ago, Bill Halter temporarily pulled into the lead (by 86 votes) over Blanche Lincoln. She’s back ahead now by some 1,400 votes, but it would be interesting if Halter finished the night ahead.

11:55pm: Following these PA races is a bit of a pain — the AP is updating at a sluggish pace compared to the DoS, but the DoS won’t tell us where any outstanding votes are. Still, between the two, we have some good news for Manan Trivedi. Trivedi leads Pike by 800 votes according to the latest DoS count. The latest AP count (91% of the vote) indicates that almost all of Chester County is in (where Pike romped by 67-33), with a few outstanding precincts in Montgomery County, where Trivedi beat Pike. Great news.

11:40pm: What else is still on the board? Well, John Boozman is desperately trying to avoid getting teabagged into a runoff – he’s at 51.2% now with 60% reporting. And things just got a LOT tighter in PA-06, where Manan Trivedi is at 50.7% to 49.3% for Doug Pike now.

11:35pm: AP calls the OR-Sen R primary for law professor Jim Huffman, even though he’s only at 42%; none of his many opponents broke 15%.

11:32pm: Now we’re getting down to just a handful of races left. AR-01 (D) is going to be a runoff between Tim Wooldridge and Chad Causey. AR-02 (D) will be a runoff between Joyce Elliott and Robbie Wills.

11:31pm: So three races left in Pennsylvania: PA-06, PA-03 (where 100% are reporting but the race is uncalled), and PA-17.

11:30pm: Looks like our friends down in PA-06 have returned from a phat ganja break – Trivedi now has 18,132 to Pike’s 15,521. The problem is that the PA SoS doesn’t say how many precincts are outstanding, and the AP is well behind the SoS. But I’m guessing we’re around 70-75% counted.

11:28pm: On the R side in OR-Gov, with 40% reporting (see how fast it goes when all the ballots are already in hand?), it’s Chris Dudley with the slam dunk, or at least the lightly-contested layup: he’s at 41, Allen Alley at 32, John Lim at 13, and Bill Sizemore proving you can still be competitive even after indictment, at 8.

11:24pm: Well, that was easy – the AP just called OR-Gov (D) for Kitz. Kinda gotta wonder why Bradbury never just got out of the way in the first place….

11:21 pm: Detouring down into the weeds in Oregon: the nonpartisan race for Superintendent of Public Instruction is being decided today, not in November, because only two people ran. The incumbent Susan Castillo (whomever everyone knows is the D) is beating Ron Maurer (the R) 55-45. Also, in the Treasurer primary, incumbent appointee Ted Wheeler is beating Rick Metsger 63-37.

11:16pm: ALERT! AR-Sen (D) will go to a run-off. And the tally (with 50% in) is a lot closer than polls suggested it was likely to be. Blanche Lincoln is at 43.5% and Bill Halter is at 42.3%.

11:15pm: In OR-01 (R), it’s Rob Cornilles 38, Douglas Keller 32, John Kuzmanich 28 with 36% in. In OR-05 (R), it’s Scott Bruun 59, “Not That” Fred Thompson 42 (23% in).

11:13pm: Miles to go before we sleep: Out in Oregon, John Kitzhaber is crushing Bill Bradbury in the Dem gov primary, 69-27, with 20% reporting. Chris Dudley has a 41-33 lead over Allen Alley on the GOP side.

11:01pm: So it looks like the PA SoS is further along than Politico. They show PA-06 already at 54-46 Trivedi.

11:00pm: Polls have just closed in Oregon.

10:58pm: Gonna guess run-off in AR-01 as well, where Tim Wooldridge leads Chad Causey 34-28.

10:57pm: With about a third in, Joye Elliott leads AR-02 over Robbie Wills, 36-33. Looks like there will be a runoff here.

10:53pm: Alright, the AP just called it for Tom Marino, who wins with an unspiring 42% or so. He’ll square off against Chris Carney in the fall.

10:50pm: Still some unsettled GOP primaries in Pennsylvania. PA-03: Mike Kelly has a narrow 29-26 lead over Paul Huber with all but 7% counted. PA-10: Tom Marino hanging on with 42% (87% counted). PA-17: Dave Argall at just 35 with Frank Ryan at 32, with 82% in.

10:47pm: So here’s a look at what’s going on: In AR-Sen, Lincoln is up just 44-42 over Halter with a third of the vote in. John Boozman keeps flirting with the 50% mark. In PA-06, Manan Trivedi is up 59-41 with half the vote in; our model shows a 54% victory for him.


Polls will close in Oregon at 11pm Eastern. Let’s rock this party west coast style! Laiiiid back.

RESULTS:

Arkansas, Kentucky & Pennsylvania Results Thread #2

10:48pm: Calling all Swingnuts! Let’s make ’em hear us over here!

10:40pm: LOL – Tim Burns wins his primary, according to the AP. Lucky guy gets to face off again against Rep.-elect Mark Critz in November.

10:37pm: Check out AR-Sen – Lincoln is now down to 45-41 over Halter. DC Morrison is at a surprisingly sprightly 14% – a rare over-performance from pre-election polling for a classic “third wheel” candidate. A little over 27% of the vote is in. Also, John Boozman just slipped below the 50% mark, while Jim Holt! is in second place.

10:33pm: Also for what it’s worth, the Swing State Project is calling PA-12 for Democrat Mark Critz.

10:29pm: DRUDGE SIREN ALERT: In PA-12, Tim Burns has conceded to Democrat Mark Critz! Woo hoo!

10:26pm: Crossing off another race off this list, the AP has called PA-17 for Tim Holden, who’s sitting on 67% of the vote. On the GOP side, David Argall leads Frank Ryan by 35-33 with 79% of the vote in.

10:24pm: The AP calls PA-11 for Paul Kanjorski… The dude’s currently sitting at 50.1% of the vote. Not exactly a ringing vote of confidence!

10:22pm: In PA-04, the AP has called the race for attorney Keith Rothfus, who obliterated NRCC favorite Mary Beth Buchanan.

10:20pm: With 233 precincts reporting, Critz leads Burns by 54-43. Our county analysis tells us that Critz is running ahead of where he needs to be in order to win this.

10:19pm: The AP has called the Pennsylvania Democratic primary for Joe Sestak!

10:17pm: Possible upset special? In AR-02, Joyce Elliott is leading House Speaker Robbie Wills by 42-28 with just 7% in. (Of course, if no one hits 50%, this sucker is going to a runoff.)

10:15pm: The SSP team is projecting Joe Sestak to win his primary by around 79,000 votes.

10:08pm: The AP has called two GOP House races in Arkansas, even though only a small chunk of the vote has been counted. In AR-01, Rick Crawford gets the nod, and in AR-02, Tim Griffin does as well. Dem contests in both races are still very much undecided.

10:04pm: Damn, son – the AP calls KY-Sen for Jack Conway! Woohah!

10:02pm: With 5% now in, Blanche Lincoln is up 46-41 on Bill Halter, with DC Morrison taking 13%. John Boozman on the GOP side is at 53%, just outside of runoff territory.

10:01pm: PA-06: Manan Trivedi up 60-40 with 37% in.

10:00pm: On the GOP side in PA-17, semi-hyped David Argall is beating Frank Ryan 41-32 with a little over half the vote in. Tim Holden is at a much healthier 70-30 over Dow-Ford.

9:58pm: Rep. Todd Platts (PA-19), who we theorized might have pissed off the teabaggers by wanting to become head of the GAO, is handily dispatching his opponent 72-26 (with less than 10% of the vote in).

9:57pm: Was PA-12 more like NY-23 than we thought? Establishment fave Tim Burns is only leading angry outsider (and 2008 nominee) Bill Russell 54-46 in the primary.

9:56pm: The AP has called the PA-Gov Dem primary for (unsurprisingly) Dan Onorato. He’ll take on Tom Corbett in the fall.

9:52pm: In PA-03, it’s a dogfight between the two dudes who spent the most money: Mike Kelly’s at 29% and Paul Huber’s at 28%, though Huber lead earlier. About 44%’s been counted.

9:51pm: With 40% of the vote in, Sestak now has a narrow lead over Specter, 51-49. But Specter isn’t winning many counties, and the remaining vote seems favorable to the challenger.

9:50pm: Mark Critz is doing well in PA-12. He’s up 58-40 with 21% reporting. Much of that is from Dem-friendly areas, but our model shows him improving 1.3% over recent Dem performance in the district.

9:48pm: Over in PA-10, hyped GOP recruit Tom Marino is leading, but with a pretty blechy 43% (27% counted). He has two opponents, though, who are splitting the remainder, so this may be good enough.

9:46pm: PA-06: With 10% in, SSP favorite Manan Trivedi is up 63-37 over Doug Pike. Let’s pray that holds!

9:43pm: A bunch more votes have poured in in PA-17, and Tim Holden is now on top 61-39 with around a quarter tallied. Still pretty meager, considering Dow-Ford has spent zilch.


Results are still coming in at a fast and furious clip in Arkansas, Kentucky and Pennsylvania. We’ll have Oregon results up later — 11pm-ish.

RESULTS:

RESOURCES: SSP Election Preview | PA-12 maps

Kentucky, Pennsylvania & Arkansas Primary Results Thread

9:43pm: We’re just chewin’ ’em up and spitting ’em out, huh? Let’s move this conversation over here.

9:34pm: So our model is still liking Conway, to the tune of 7,700 votes. Serious squeaker, though.

9:27pm: I’m gonna guess Paul Kanjorski will hang on. With 28% in, he has 53% of the vote, while the once-touted Corey O’Brien is barely ahead of no-name Brian Kelly, 25-22. Numbers look rather like the IL-03 primary against Dan Lipinski in 2008.

9:25pm: I’m loving it – Keith Rothfus is absolutely hammering GOP establishment fave Mary Beth Buchanan, 64-36 with 25% reporting in PA-04.

9:23pm: 19% reporting in PA now, and Specter leads Sestak by 52-48.

9:20pm: With 25 precincts in, Mark Critz leads Burns by 59-39. These are some Dem-friendly precincts though, but Critz is holding down decent margins here based on our model.

9:17pm: With 3068 precincts in, Conway leads by only 45-42 (or just over 12K votes), but jeffmd is currently projecting Conway to win by 8,000.

9:15pm: Wow, look at Dem Rep. Tim Holden. With 18 precincts in, the guy’s getting spanked by 59-41.

9:13pm: 17 precincts are now in for PA-12, and Critz leads Burns by 59-38. This is fairly Dem-friendly turf, though.

9:10pm: Our latest projection has Conway ultimately winning by something around 4,000 votes.

9:09pm: 2846 precincts are now in, and Conway is now back up over 20,000.

9:05pm: With 2805 precincts in, Conway’s lead has dipped just below 20,000 votes. Our projection is still pointing to a 44-44 result.

9:03pm: Specter’s up by 58-42 with just 7% in.

9:00pm: 2751 precincts are reporting in Kentucky (leaving 824 on the table), and Conway’s up by 46-41, or just over 20,000 votes.

8:59pm: Heh — with just 7 precincts reporting in Arkansas, DC Morrison has 18%, and Halter leads Lincoln by 42-40.

8:54pm: Hoo boy — the abacus crew at SSP World HQ tells me that the latest projection shows a 44-44 race in Kentucky, with Conway winning a squeaker by 3,000 votes. However, we admit that our methods are crude.

8:50pm: Back in Kentucky, with 2654 precincts in (out of 3575), Conway still leads by 47-41 — or just under 22,000 votes.

8:47pm: You can also find the PA-12 special election results buried far down this page. They have Critz up by 59-41 in the single precinct reporting.

8:45pm: For PA-12 special election results, keep this link handy. Lots of other links are showing the primary nums.

8:43pm: We’re now up to 2377 precincts in Kentucky, and Conway leads Mongiardo by 47-41 (or about 23,000 votes).

8:41pm: KY-Sen turnout (so far): 328K voters in Dem primary, 212K in the GOP primary.

8:40pm: 2281, and it’s tightened to 47-40.

8:36pm: We’ve got 2237 precincts outta the oven in KY, and Conway still leads by 48-40. (Just 36 uncounted Jeffco counties, for those keeping score, though Conway is doing well enough in some of the smaller counties, too.)

8:32pm: The polls have just closed in Arkansas.

8:30pm: With 4 precincts reporting in PA, Sestak leads Specter by 131 votes to 114.

8:28pm: We’ve got two competing spreadsheets running by the eggheads at SSP Labs. One is projecting a 45-43 Conway win — the other a 46-42 Conway win.

8:25pm: 2009 precincts are now in, and Conway’s still sitting at 48-40. That includes almost all of Fayette County now, where Conway won by 52-38.

8:23pm: The boys down at SSP Labs tell me that Conway is, very crudely, projected to win by 45-43 right now. Variations in turnout could muck that one up, though.

8:21pm: 1845 precincts in — over half of the vote now — and Conway leads Mongiardo by 48-40. There’s only 60 precincts left in Jeffco to count, while Fayette still has 91 precincts taking a ganja break.

8:18pm: Hmmm — some voters were accidentally given two ballots in PA-12. Well, let’s hope that this one doesn’t come down to 178 votes!

8:15pm: 1703 precincts are now in, and Conway’s up by 48-39.

8:11pm: For whatever it’s worth, our crude back-of-the-envelope analysis has switched from predicting a Mongiardo win to a Conway victory. Conway’s also posting a narrow lead in Daviess County, home of Owensboro.

8:09pm: 1614 precincts are in, and Conway is holding onto his 49-39 lead over Mongiardo.


Polls have just closed in Pennsylvania. We’re still tracking the results in KY-Sen (D) and will bring you PA results as soon as they roll in. Arkansas (8:30pm ET) and Oregon (11pm ET) close later.

RESULTS:

RESOURCES: SSP Election Preview | PA-12 maps

IN, NC & OH Primary Results Thread

Polls have now closed in all three states with primaries tonight: Indiana, North Carolina, and Ohio.

RESULTS


9:51PM: Well, this thread is getting a bit obese. Let’s move this discussion over here.

9:45PM: Get ready for a runoff between Elaine Marshall (37%) and DSCC fave Cal Cunningham (27%) in North Carolina.

9:43PM: With half the vote in, Krikorian leads Yalamanchili by 40-34.

9:38PM: So, er, looks like we jumped to conclusions a bit in IN-09 – Hankins is now fewer than 300 votes behind Young. But it still looks like Young is favored.

9:37PM: Risk loses Kamchatka. The AP calls IN-08 for Larry Bucshon. (Hey teabaggers — vote for Trent out of spite!)

9:35PM: The AP calls OH-02 for Jean Schmidt. She scored 62% of the vote this time.

9:33PM: Unreal. Looks like Dan Burton is gonna live again — he’s at 29.7% of the vote, just over 2000 votes head of Luke Messer with 4 precincts outstanding. What a pathetic showing for Burton!

9:25PM: Despite Travis Hankins’ exciting late surge, Todd Young has pulled away with an almost 2K vote lead. Less than 10% of the vote is outstanding, which means that fewer than 5K more ballots are still out there. Almost impossible to make up that gap. (And incidentally, Mike Sodrel pulled back into second place.)

9:22PM: Elaine Marshall’s share of the vote keeps slipping downward. She’s now just above 37%.

9:09PM: With 477 of 587 precincts in, Todd Young leads Travis Hankins by 225 votes in IN-09.

9:03PM: With 9.5% of the vote in, Lee Fisher leads Jennifer Brunner by 56-44.

9:00PM: I note that Dan Coats won his nomination with about the same percentage as Alexi Giannoulias won his.

8:53PM: Whoa, check out IN-09 — Young leads teabagger Travis Hankins by 34-33, with 30% for Sodrel. Still about a fifth of the vote left to count there.

8:51PM: Risk is now back up by 31-29 in IN-08, but there are still 71 Bucshon-friendly precincts outstanding in Evansville left to count.

8:49PM: Whoa mama joe! In Ohio, it’s still 52-48 Fisher with 7% of the vote in.

8:47PM: Worth noting: Neither Kissell nor Shuler’s primary opponent filed an FEC report, and Shuler’s guy doesn’t even have a contribution link on his website.

8:46PM: The problem for Dan Burton? He has no strongholds left, and his Hamilton County performance is quite weak. This should be very close.

8:45PM: Buschon now up by 31-30 based on his strength in Evansville. 2/3rds of the vote now in.

8:43PM: Almost 2/3rds of the votes are now counted in IN-05, and Burton leads Messer by 31-28. The Hamilton County votes, which are starting to come in now, are split 25-25-25 for Burton, Messer, and McGoff.

8:41PM: The AP calls the Indiana Senate primary for Dan Coats.

8:41PM: Note that both Shuler and Kissell voted against healthcare — are we seeing some fallout there?

8:38PM: NC-11: And Heath Shuler is up just 57-43 against Aixa Wilson.

8:37PM: NC-08: Dem Rep. Larry Kissell up just 60-40 against challenger from the left with 15% in.

8:36PM: A bit over half of the vote is in, and Dan Burton leads Luke Messer by 32-30.

8:29PM: Risk only up 12 votes in IN-08, 30-30, she’ll continue to lose ground as more of Vanderburgh County comes in.

8:26PM: Harold Johnson leads D’Annuzio by 35-34 in NC-08. Looks like a runoff is a live possibility here.

8:25PM: Now that a bit over a quarter of the vote is in, Elaine Marshall leads Cal Cunningham by 38-28. Ken Lewis is at 15.

8:22PM: With a bit over half the vote counted in IN-09, Young leads Sodrel by 37-31, while teabagger Travis Hankins is close behind with 29%.

8:21PM: Teabagger Kristi Risk now only leads Buschon by 300 votes in IN-08, now that Evansville (Buschon’s home base) is starting to report.

8:19PM: In NC-08, Harold Johnson leads businessman Tim D’Annuzio by 37-34. Looks like that’s just the early vote, though.

8:18PM: NC-10: McHenry comfortably ahead with a small number of votes in, 60-25.

8:16PM: Check out OH-16, where Matt Miller is leading NRCC fave Jim Renacci by 72-23 thanks to some early votes in in Ashland, his home county.

8:13PM: The bean counters at SSP labs think that a runoff is likely in North Carolina. There’s a huge chunk of eastern NC that’s largely African-American where Ken Lewis is going to do better than he’s been doing right now, as well as Durham/Mecklenburg counties outstanding.

8:11PM: With under half of the vote in, teabagger Kristi Risk leads DC-backed surgeon Larry Buschon by 31-26. Wow!

8:10PM: The AP has called IN-02 for Wacky Jackie Walorski.

8:09PM: IN-09: Todd Young leads Mike Sodrel 38-33, with Travis Hankins back at 26.

8:08PM: In North Carolina, the Senate race is now 39M-27C-16L, but as Tom Jensen points out, the minor candidates may force this into a runoff.

8:04PM: With just 11 precincts in (but also a big chunk of votes in from Franklin County), Fisher leads Brunner by 52-48 in Ohio.

8:00PM: The AP has declared GOP Rep. Mark Souder the winner of his primary. I’m kind of surprised!

7:57PM: Dan Burton is in a very tight race. With 40% in, he leads Messer by 33-31.

7:56PM: IN-04: Rokita crushing 45-18 with about a third of the vote in.

7:56PM: IN-03: Souder very likely to hold on – 49-34 with 72% in.

7:55PM: IN-02: Wacky Jackie now up 57-31 with 43% in.

7:48PM: With the early vote in North Carolina in, Elaine Marshall leads Cal Cunningham by 39.5% to 26%.

7:42PM: Kristi Risk now ahead by just 15 votes in IN-08 (216 of 635 precincts reporting).

7:40PM: With 28% of precincts in statewide, Dan Coats leads Marlin Stutzman by 42%-30%.

May Elections Calendar

Elections junkies like us had to suffer through an entire month without a single exciting primary or special election to dissect. (I blame Kay Bailey Hutchison for that one.) But that’s just the will of the calendar. As it turns out, our patience will be rewarded, as May is going to be filled to the brim with a number of extremely exciting contests — primaries of all kinds and special elections alike. We’ve identified as many noteworthy races as we can think of in the following chart, but if there’s anything we’re missing, please let us know in the comments!

Needless to say, May is going to be a busy, busy month.

P.S. SSP’s complete primary calendar is available here.

AR-Sen: The rumor is that Bill Halter is in…

The rumor is buzzing around Arkansas that Lt. Gov Halter will challenge Blanche Lincoln in the primary.

http://www.arktimes.com/blogs/…

Again, there is no confirmation on this as of yet.  But the Draft Halter facebook group (including yours truly) did a phone bomb this week on Halter’s office and got a rather enthusiastic response from the staff.  All of us that called from the Draft group got the impression that if Halter saw that the support was there he’d run, and if this is true our efforts may have pushed him over the edge.  Here’s to hoping!

If you’re on facebook, you can join the Draft group here:

http://www.facebook.com/group….

UPDATE:Halter spokesman Bud Jackson: “Nothing has changed.  The lieutenant governor continues to focus on his re-election while also considering the available options to best serve Arkansans.”

Sounds like a big non-denial to me.

Developments in AR-02

Two potential candidates are out.

Little Rock mayor, Mike Stodola (who I honestly never expected to run anyway) has declared for reelection.

More surprisingly, veteran and former AG candidate, Paul Suskie, who was apparently laying the groundwork for the campaign, has opted out, citing family obligations and his current work.

http://bluearkansasblog.com/?p…

It’s a real shame about Suskie.  I’ve met the guy and, while we don’t agree on much, he’d have been a strong candidate and I genuinely like him on a personal level.

Right now the race is looking like a three person affair in the primary-

State House Speaker Robbie Wills is running.  So is Snyder’s chief of staff, David Boling.  And then there’s state senate majority leader Joyce Elliott, the only woman and African American in the feild, so far at least.

How to pick a good general election candidate in a primary

While we’re talking about lessons to learn from the debacle in Massachusetts, two tough questions that need to be asked, discussed, and reflected on a great deal are:

1. How to get better at picking good candidates in primaries, and

2. What are the danger signs to look out for in a primary that might warn us a candidate that looks good in a primary will bomb in the general election?

More after the fold.

Some of you knew Coakley would be a lousy general election candidate. Did any of you suspect she would be too lazy to campaign effectively and would say a bunch of idiotic things? How did you figure out that she was gonna suck?

And what about VA-Gov? Did the Democratic voters pick the wrong candidate in Deeds? I think we all agree that his campaign strategy was awful, a guaranteed loser, and got even worse when he tried to sound like a Republican and turned off the base. But would Moran, for example, have had a chance of winning?

I don’t have answers, but if we are to benefit from this stinging loss, we will have to figure out how to get smarter in picking candidates who are more likely to win in state-wide contests, as we did in the Presidential primaries in 2008.

I look forward to any insights you can give on these campaigns, and more importantly, for the future.

By what margin will Bob Shamansky win?

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