SSP Daily Digest: 10/25 (Morning Edition)

  • Site News: Holy moly. We just passed ten million all-time visitors yesterday. Wow. Just really have to take a step back for a moment. When I started this site almost exactly seven years ago, I never, ever imagined we’d achieve anything like this. Just a huge thank you to every reader who has checked in since Oct. 19, 2003 to today – and beyond.
  • AR-Gov (Mason-Dixon): Mike Beebe (D-inc) 59, Jim Keet (R) 26
  • CA-Sen, CA-Gov (Greenberg Quinlan Rosner & American Viewpoint for the LA Times/USC): Barbara Boxer (D-inc) 50, Carly Fiorina (R) 42; Jerry Brown (D) 52, Meg Whitman (R) 39
  • CA-Gov (John McLaughlin & David Hill (R) for Meg Whitman): Jerry Brown (D) 46, Meg Whitman (R) 43
  • CO-Sen, CO-Gov (SurveyUSA for 9News/Denver Post): Michael Bennet (D-inc) 47, Ken Buck (R) 47; John Hickenlooper (D) 46, Dan Maes (R) 15, Tom Tancredo (ACP) 34
  • Bonus: SUSA also tested the state AG, SoS, and Treasurer races.

  • CO-Gov (Magellan): John Hickenlooper (D) 44, Dan Maes (R) 9, Tom Tancredo (ACP) 43
  • FL-Sen, FL-Gov (Ipsos for Florida media): Kendrick Meek (D) 20, Marco Rubio (R) 41, Charlie Crist (I) 26; Alex Sink (D) 41, Rick Scott (R) 44
  • Bonus: Ipsos also tested the AG, Ag Comm’r, and CFO races.

  • FL-Gov (Susquehanna for Sunshine State News): Alex Sink (D) 45, Rick Scott (R) 45
  • IL-Sen, IL-Gov (Mason-Dixon for St. Louis Post-Dispatch/KMOV-TV): Pat Quinn (D-inc) 40, Bill Brady (R) 44; Alexi Giannoulias (D) 41, Mark Kirk (R) 43
  • Note: The poll apparently asked respondents about “Alex Giannoulias.”

  • IL-Sen (Market Shares Corp. for the Chicago Tribune): Alexi Giannoulias (D) 41, Mark Kirk (R) 44
  • LA-Sen (Anzalone-Liszt (D) for Charlie Melancon): Charlie Melancon (D) 45, David Vitter (R-inc) 48
  • MA-Gov (Western New England College): Deval Patrick (D-inc) 44, Charlie Baker (R) 36, Tim Cahill (I) 8
  • MA-Gov (UNH): Deval Patrick (D-inc) 43, Charlie Baker (R) 39, Tim Cahill (I) 8
  • MD-Gov (OpinionWorks for the Baltimore Sun): Martin O’Malley (D-inc) 52, Bob Ehrlich (R) 38
  • ME-Gov (Critical Insights): Libby Mitchell (D) 20, Paul LePage (R) 32, Eliot Cutler 19
  • MN-Gov (Princeton Survey Research for the Minneapolis Star-Tribune): Mark Dayton (D) 41, Tom Emmer (R) 34, Tom Horner (I) 13
  • MO-Sen (Mason-Dixon for St. Louis Post-Dispatch/KMOV-TV): Robin Carnahan (D) 40, Roy Blunt (R) 49
  • NY-Gov (Marist): Andrew Cuomo (D) 60, Carl Paladino (R) 37
  • PA-Gov (Quinnipiac): Dan Onorato (D) 44, Tom Corbett (R) 49
  • WV-Sen (Global Strategy Group (D) for Joe Manchin): Joe Manchin (D) 48, John Raese (R) 43
  • Margins & Errors: On Sunday, Pat Toomey moved out to a 3-point lead in the Muhlenberg tracker, while Tom Corbett is +9… some sketchy details of IN-02 internals from Brian Howey: “Howard County Republican Chairman Craig Dunn said internal polling has shown Walorski chipping a 9-point Donnelly lead to “at the margin of error” around 4 percent.” … CNN sources tell them that Harry Reid’s internals have him up 6 over Sharron Angle in NV-Sen… PPP will have polls out for CA, CO, KY & WV this week

    IL-Sen: Pity the Poor Illinois Voter?

    Market Shares Corp for the Chicago Tribune/WGN (8/28-9/1, likely voters, no trend lines):

    Alexi Giannoulias (D): 34

    Mark Kirk (R): 34

    LeAlan Jones (G): 6

    Mike Labno (L): 3

    Undecided: 22

    (MoE: ±4%)

    One area where Giannoulias can gain some ground is among African American voters, who favor him over Kirk by 58-3 margin. This one is shaping up to be a battle of inches, though:

    IL-Sen: Giannoulias Ahead, Kirk with Clear Lead

    Market Shares Corp. for the Chicago Tribune/WGN-TV (1/16-20, likely voters, 12/2-8 in parens):

    Alexi Giannoulias (D): 34 (31)

    Cheryle Jackson (D): 19 (17)

    David Hoffman (D): 16 (9)

    Other: 5 (8)

    Undecided: 26 (35)

    Mark Kirk (R): 47 (41)

    Patrick Hughes (R): 8 (3)

    Other: 10 (10)

    Undecided: 35 (46)

    (MoE: ±4%)

    Public Policy Polling (PDF) (1/22-25, likely voters, no trendlines):

    Alexi Giannoulias (D): 32

    Cheryle Jackson (D): 18

    David Hoffman (D): 20

    Other: 3

    Undecided: 27

    (MoE: ±4.9%)

    Mark Kirk (R): 42

    Patrick Hughes (R): 9

    Other: 11

    Undecided: 39

    (MoE: ±4.1%)

    Remarkably similar numbers from both pollsters in both primaries. It looks like teabagger extraordinaire Patrick Hughes has failed to take much of a bite out of Kirk’s hide. The real question is whether Kirk’s successful rightward march to head off the likes of Hughes will damage him in the fall – or if he can pull of a charade of Scott Brownian proportions.

    On the Dem side, Giannoulias seems to be in the pole position, but the Tribune, at least, seems to think Hoffman is showing some momentum. Time is pretty much out for anyone to make a move, though.

    PPP also took a look at the gubernatorial primaries:

    Pat Quinn (D-inc): 40

    Dan Hynes (D): 41

    Undecided: 19

    (MoE: ±4.9%)

    Kirk Dillard (R): 19

    Andy McKenna (R): 17

    Bill Brady (R): 16

    Jim Ryan (R): 13

    Adam Andrzejewski (R): 11

    Other: 8

    Undecided: 17

    (MoE: ±4.1%)

    These numbers are also in line with the Tribune’s, though Hynes is doing just a hair better here. As for the Republican slate, several of the places are switched from where the Trib had them, but all of the players are still jostling inside a very tight band. Both races are too close to call – but we’ll know the answers on Tuesday.

    And, as always, SSP will be liveblogging all of the Illinois primaries.

    UPDATE: Rasmussen also just put out some numbers:

    Andy McKenna (R): 20

    Jim Ryan (R): 16

    Kirk Dillard (R): 13

    Bill Brady (R): 11

    Adam Andrzejewski (R): 11

    Other: 12

    Undecided: 17

    (MoE: ±4.5%)

    IL-Gov: New Poll Show Tight Races in Both Primaries

    Market Shares Corp. for the Chicago Tribune/WGN-TV (1/16-20, likely voters, 12/2-8 in parens):

    Pat Quinn (D-inc): 44 (49)

    Dan Hynes (D): 40 (23)

    Other: 2 (7)

    Undecided: 13 (21)

    (MoE: ±4%)

    These are some pretty remarkable trendlines, though the toplines are very close to a recent Hynes internal, which had him down 44-37. As the Tribune notes, Hynes (the state’s Comptroller) has been hammering Quinn on TV, aided by his somewhat surprisingly larger warchest. Hynes’s jump is also a tribute to the power of negative campaigning, as this race has turned quite ugly – he’s come under fire of late for ads which dredge up hoary old Chicago racial politics. This move may backfire on Hynes, but with the primary just over a week away, there’s no doubt that this contest is very much a tossup.

    (An aside: For an excellent exegesis on the importance of Harold Washington, Chicago’s first black mayor, and how his ascent and untimely death made an indellible mark on the city’s politics, I highly recommend Barack Obama’s Dreams from My Father. Obama’s years as a community organizer in Chicago came during and after Washington’s tenure.)

    The Tribune also polled the GOP primary:

    Andy McKenna (R): 19 (12)

    Jim Ryan (R): 18 (26)

    Kirk Dillard (R): 14 (9)

    Bill Brady (R): 9 (10)

    Adam Andrzejewski (R): 7 (6)

    Other: 14

    Undecided: 17

    (MoE: ±4%)

    Talk about unsettled – and what a drop for Ryan, the former AG (and not to be confused with disgraced former Gov. George Ryan or disgraced 2004 GOP senate nominee Jack Ryan). I tend to think that Ryan would be the GOP’s strongest candidate, but he’s suffered at the hands of McKenna (the former state party chair), who, like Hynes, has been blitzing the airwaves. Interestingly, McKenna has also targeted Quinn, which might also help explain Hynes’s surge. In any event, much like the Dem primary, this is anybody’s race.

    The full polling memo is not available online yet, but I’d expect the Tribune to post it here. (It’s nice to see the tradmed making better use of resources like Scribd and putting original documents online to allow greater scrutiny.) I also expect that the Trib will release senate numbers soon as well.