Tag: Jill Long Thompson

PPP (10/18-19, likely voters, 10/11-12 in parens):

Bev Perdue (D): 48 (45)

Pat McCrory (R): 44 (44)

(MoE: ±2.8%)

This week’s PPP snapshot of the North Carolina governor’s race gives Bev Perdue a bit more breathing room. While PPP has generally been the most favorable pollster to Perdue, remember that they had her down by 3 at the start of the month. It seems like some of Obama’s momentum is finally transferring to Perdue, though, as PPP observes that she’s now leading among the under-30 crowd by 55-33; in previous polls, she had lagged Obama and Hagan in the young demo.

UPDATE: Civitas (R) also released governor’s race data today; Perdue and McCrory are tied at 43 each (last month, McCrory led 43-41). That’s sort of good news, too, as Civitas tends to be more favorable to McCrory and Perdue hasn’t led in a Civitas poll since August.

PPP (10/18-19, likely voters, no trendlines):

Jill Long Thompson (D): 36

Mitch Daniels (R-inc): 57

(MoE: ±2.6%)

Man, this Indiana race is a tease. Thompson will occasionally pop up within the margin of error, and then the next poll will always be something like this one. (PPP says Thompson’s problems start with her pulling in only 64% of Democrats.) This poll, however, isn’t much worse than the overall Pollster composite, which is now at 52-37. Bear in mind this is the same sample that just gave Obama a 48-46 edge in freakin’ Indiana, so coattails aren’t helping JLT at all.

Research 2000 for South Bend Tribune/WSBT (9/28-30, likely voters):

Jill Long Thompson (D): 46

Mitch Daniels (R-inc): 47

(MoE: ±4%)

The Indiana governor’s race was starting to slide off the map, with GOP incumbent Mitch Daniels leading Democratic ex-Representative Jill Long Thompson by double digits in most polls over the last few months (with the exception of a 4-point spread in a Selzer poll several weeks ago). However, R2K’s first poll of this race shows a dead heat.

Is it an outlier? Is it another indication that the economic chaos is lifting every Democratic boat, even JLT’s leaky dinghy? Or is it a sign that Obama’s uncontested ground game in Indiana is not only turning Indiana into a swing state but generating strong coattails (the same sample gives McCain a lead of only 46-45)?

Howey-Gauge (8/30-31, likely voters, 4/23-24 in parens):

Jill Long Thompson (D): 35 (36)

Mitch Daniels (R-inc): 53 (55)

(MoE: ±4.1%)

This is the fourth consecutive poll since June showing Daniels with a big lead. A couple of years ago, My Man Mitch seemed like a juicy target to be taken down by an aggressive populist Democratic campaign. However, Daniels has turned around his once-sagging job approval ratings and has put some serious daylight between himself and JLT.

While we don’t base our ratings system entirely on polls, you can’t outrun the trend lines. SSP is shifting its rating of this race from “Lean Republican” to Likely Republican.

On the bright side, this latest Howey-Gauge poll shows McCain leading Obama only by a 45-43 margin. Can McCain afford to continue to write this state off as a guaranteed GOP win?

(H/T: Blue Indiana)

Indiana’s Republican Governor Mitch Daniels has had a bit of a bumpy first term.  Controversy surrounding his initiative to privatize Indiana’s toll road, his efforts to push the state into following daylight savings time, and his clashes with the state legislature over tax increases wore down his approval rating dramatically.  In fact, Daniels’ disapproval ratings were higher than his approval ratings for all but one of SurveyUSA’s monthly tracking polls during 2006. 

Research 2000 has released the first poll of Daniels’ re-election race, and of the Democratic primary between state Senator Richard Young, businessman Jim Schellinger, and former Rep. Jill Long Thompson.  The results are not pretty for Mitch.

First, the Governor’s approvals:

Q: How would you rate the performance of Mitch Daniels as Governor; excellent, good, only fair, or poor?

Excellent/Good: 45
Fair/Poor: 47
Not Sure: 8

MoE: ±3.5%

Next, the straight-up re-election numbers:

Q: If the election for Governor were held today, would you vote to reelect Mitch Daniels, would you consider voting for another candidate, or would you vote to replace Daniels?

Re-Elect: 39
Would Consider Another Candidate: 21
Would Not Re-Elect: 37

Interestingly, 14% of Republicans polled would consider voting for another candidate, and 12% would vote for someone else.  In a general election match-up poll against Jill Long Thompson, Daniels isn’t exactly sitting in a position of strength:

Mitch Daniels (R-inc): 46
Jill Long Thompson (D): 38
Undecided: 16

That’s a surprisingly strong showing by Thompson, who served in the House from 1988 to 1994, and narrowly lost a comeback attempt against Republican Chris Chocola in Indiana’s 2nd District in 2002.  The poll also shows her in a strong position to win the Democratic primary:

Jill Long Thompson: 41
Richard Young: 16
Jim Schellinger: 10

Daniels still has over a year to turn this ship around, but he’s showing a great deal of weakness this far out.  Perhaps Indiana voters are realizing that Bush’s man is not theirs.

(Hat-tip: Blue Indiana)

So far, the Indiana Governor’s race has been on the quieter end of 2008’s potential gubernatorial battlegrounds.  Incumbent Republican Governor Mitch Daniels was elected after a 2004 campaign that emphasized his close working relationship with President Bush as former director of the Office of Management and Budget.  Daniels even went so far as to adopt “My Man Mitch”–Bush’s nickname for him–as his campaign slogan.  And while Daniels handily beat incumbent Democrat Joe Kernan for control of Indiana’s gubernatorial office by a 10 point margin, he did perversely manage to follow in Bush’s footsteps during his term as Governor–that is, he perfectly mirrored Bush’s descent into an indefinite slump in the polls.  According to SUSA, Daniels only had a net positive approval rating (of 1 point) once during the 14 month span ending in November 2006.  (More recent polling seems harder to come by.)

Nevertheless, despite Daniels’ obvious weaknesses, the few big names from the state’s Democratic bench have been reluctant to throw their hats in the ring.  Indianapolis Mayor Bart Peterson, who was regarded as the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination should he decide to pursue it, declined to enter the race last month.  So far, the only names in the race have been State Senate Democratic Leader Richard Young and Indianapolis architect and political neophyte Jim Schellinger.  However, the local media reports that a more familiar name in Indiana politics is gearing up for a challenge to Daniels:

Former Congresswoman Jill Long Thompson wants to run for governor of Indiana. A Democrat, Thompson served three terms in Congress before losing in the Republican landslide of 1994. She came to Indianapolis Monday seeking support for a bid to take on Republican Mitch Daniels in 2008.

Thompson met with union leaders to spell out her plans for the 2008 governor’s race. She began calling Democratic party leaders a month ago and says she hopes to make up her mind before summer.

“Not only am I getting a good response, but we’re optimistic that its going to be a good year for us in 2008,” said Thompson.

Jill Long Thompson, as you may recall, represented the 4th District in Congress from 1988 to 1994, when Republican Mark Souder defeated her in the so-called “Republican Revolution”.  She then served as an Under Secretary for Rural Economic and Community Development at the USDA in the Clinton Administration until 2001.  In 2002, she made a comeback attempt against Republican Chris Chocola in the 2nd District, losing by a close 46-50 margin. 

I’m not going to hold Long Thompson’s 2002 loss against her–a four point loss in an R+4.3 district in a bad year for Democrats nationwide is a pretty strong showing, if you ask me.  She might make a compelling candidate for Governor.  Certainly, she’ll have the appropriate fundraising connections to mount a strong challenge.

Another point of interest here is that by knocking out Daniels, Democrats will gain more ground in the state’s redistricting process, allowing the current map, which is quite favorable to Democrats, to survive (assuming Democrats hold their ground in the State House).

Race Tracker: IN-Gov