Tag: VA-02

Bennett, Petts, & Normington for Glenn Nye (9/21-22, likely voters, 5/6-8 in parens):

Glenn Nye (D): 40 (32)

Thelma Drake (R-inc): 45 (48)

Undecided: 15 (20)

(MoE: ±4.9%)

Very nice trend for Glenn Nye the candidate guy. After airing some bio ads, Nye’s name recognition has shot up to 49% — more than five times higher than it was in May, but also showing some major room to grow.

Drake’s been firing blanks at Nye in recent days over a D.C. residence that he maintained with his brother while serving as a foreign service officer in Iraq. In Drake’s view, Nye’s been “gaming” the D.C. tax system for a discount. The Virginian-Pilot tears Drake to shreds for this attack:

Here’s the problem with that charge: Nye owns the house with his brother, who has lived there except while the State Department employed him in Iraq to work on reconstruction and job creation. Nye himself was also in Baghdad – creating a jobs program for Iraqis – during the period that Drake’s campaign argues he was cheating the D.C. government.

In other words, Drake is criticizing the Nye brothers for claiming as a primary residence the house they left behind while serving their country in a war zone. What the Nyes did will sound very familiar to the heavily military voters of the 2nd District.

It’s no wonder that Drake has a net negative job rating (45-47) and that her favorables are only at 42%.

SSP currently rates this race as Lean Republican. The full polling memo is available below the fold.

With congressional primaries in Maine, South Carolina, and Virginia on June 10th, the deadline for candidates to file their pre-primary fundraising reports with the FEC for the period from 4/1 to 5/21 passed at midnight.  Let’s round-up the numbers from all the hot races (all figures are subject to rounding and listed in the thousands; loans not included):

“Under the radar” races are my favorite, so let’s take a look at SC-01 and SC-02, two deeply red seats with surprisingly strong Democratic challengers.

In SC-01, businesswoman/civic leader Linda Ketner has raised ($430K) and spent ($398K) quite a bit money so far. She’s also loaned her campaign $350,000 so far. This is some serious money for an R+9.6 district — and she needs to be posting these kinds of figures, when the incumbent is sitting on $1.3 million cash on hand.

Also impressive is SC-02’s Rob Miller. An Iraq vet, Miller entered the race in March and has raised nearly $200K and lent his campaign an additional $100K. Again, very respectable scrilla for an R+8.9 district.

Bennett, Petts & Normington (5/6-8):

Glenn Nye (D): 32

Thelma Drake (R-inc): 48

Any incumbent under 50 against a challenger who only has 9% name recognition is not in stellar shape.  Indeed, Drake’s re-elects are at 40%.  After hearing positive statements about both candidates, Nye closes the gap to 45-47.

Democrats have had heartbreak here before, losing narrowly in ’06.  Mark Glenn Nye, who only began his campaign earlier, as a candidate to watch.

SSP currently rates this race as “Likely Republican“.

Will a challenger emerge to take on Rep. Thelma Drake (R-VA) next year?  According to the Virginian-Pilot, Norfolk sheriff Bob McCabe, a former Republican, is considering a run after being approached by some local Democrats:

Sheriff Bob McCabe said he may challenge U.S. Rep. Thelma Drake in November.

“There are some Democratic leaders who are encouraging me to run,” McCabe said Wednesday. “It wasn’t on my radar screen six or seven weeks ago, but I’ve been overwhelmed by the support I’ve received from grass-roots people and friends in Richmond and Washington.”

McCabe, 49, is a Navy veteran and former Norfolk police officer who was elected sheriff 15 years ago. He was elected as a Republican, with Drake’s support, and still has photographs of GOP stalwarts Oliver North and George Allen in his office at the City Jail.

However, he left the GOP several years ago, saying elements of the party had become too extreme. He later joined the Democratic Party.

VA-02 is an R+5.9 district that Bush carried by 12 and 16 point margins in 2000 and 2004, respectively, but the DCCC still wants to target this seat, despite top-tier candidate Phil Kellam’s narrow loss in 2006.  At the statewide level, Dems have been competitive here: Webb lost by three points in 2006, but Tim Kaine won it by the same margin in 2005.

Another potential candidate is Jody Wagner, the state secretary of finance and a strong fundraiser, who lost a previous attempt at the seat by 4% when it was open in 2000.  We’ll see how this shakes out.  If I were McCabe, I might think about taking down those pictures, though…

(H/T: Raising Kaine)

(A solid synopsis of an opportunity lost – promoted by James L.)

VA-02 was a target seat this year for a Democratic Party takeover of the House. Freshman Thelma Drake (R-Norfolk) seemed ripe to topple. After Iraq War Veteran David Ashe (D), who lost to Drake in ’04 55-45%, dropped out of the race to pave the way for Virginia Beach Commissioner of Revenue Phil Kellam (D), things were looking pretty good. Kellam, member of a well known Virginia Beach Democratic political family, was the only Citywide elected Democratic Official, this city accounts for approximately 71% of the District’s population. Drake hails from the smaller though Democratic leaning Norfolk. Virginia Beach is historically Republican at both the National & Local level, though Gov. Tim Kaine (D) narrowly carried the city in 2005 and carried the district by 3.02%, former Gov. Mark Warner came within 0.15% of carrying the District in 2001. Besides the City of Viginia Beach, the District includes 23 (+ 2 AT/CV) Precincts in the City of Norfolk, 12(+2 A/T) precincts in the City of Hampton  and the Eastern Shore Counties of Accomack & Northampton.  (More after the flip.)

In my quest to discover why Kellam was unable to unseat Drake in a District I had called home for almost two decades, I did a little research and located two websites: Not Larry Sabato and Vivian J. Paige of Norfolk.
The links will lead you to not only their analysis of what happened here but blog comments from those even closer to the ground or with a differing perspective.
My personal take was re-affirmed on the following points:
1. The Kellam Political dynasty is not a reliably powerful entity and is unknown to many of the transient voters in the Distict, read: of little impact.
2. Kellam avoided debates with Drake after his initial and only debate with Drake in mid-June. His performance in that debate was perceived as “unsteady” by the press.
3. Grassroots/Ground Support was too light.
4. Kellam failed to clearly delineate himself as much different from Drake politically & ideologically. Granted in this conservative leaning-Military heavy District that might seem like a good thing but I don’t think it worked to Kellam’s advantage in the type of Wave year we just saw.
5. Momentum damage from disclosures about Kellam’s past.
6. Failure to secure major newspaper endorsement in the District and failure to dent the potenially vulnerable Drake in the press.
7. Lack of coordination with VA Dem Party major leaders for campaign support.
8. The RNC Robocalls against both Kellam & Webb.

Take a look at these links and the information contained within and see what you think.

A look back at the 2nd Congressional District
http://notlarrysabat…

Kellam: the turning pointhttp://vivianpaige.w…

Thanks to both those sites and the Commentators for dissemination of this information.
Election Results VA-02
2004 Pres
Kerry-D  101,576 41.53% 
Bush-R 141,097 57.69%
2005 Gov
Kilgore-R 64,955 46.79% 
Kaine-D 69,153 49.81%

2006 Sen
Allen-R 89,145 51.04% 
Webb-D 83,268 47.67%

2006 VA-02
Drake-R 88,777  51.27%
  Kellam-D  83,901  48.45%

Congressional District Map Link:
http://en.wikipedia….

The latest California Field Poll has Shwarzenegger up by double digits but still under 50%. Feinstein also up by double digits, with slight slippage within the MOE. Unfortunetly no polling on the “down the ticket” or Congressional races.

11/1/2006 MOE 3.5% Both Polls

Gov:

Shwarzenegger 49 (44)

Angelides 33 (34)

Other 6 (7)

Undecided 12 (15)

Angelides is only leading in LA County-42% to 36% and tied in the SF Bay Area, not good news. Looks like the Gropenator will pull this out but interesting that he still hasn’t popped 50%. 78% believe Shwarzenegger will win.

Sen:

Feinstein 55  (57)

Mountjoy 33  (29)

Other  4 (6)

Undecided 8 (8)

No regional info. Interesting slip though its within the MOE and I only just saw my first Feinstein TV Ad today.

AZ-08

Zogby(Reuters). 10/24-29. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/25-10/2 results)

Graf (R) 41 (37)

Giffords (D) 54 (45)

CO-07

Zogby (Reuters). 10/24-29. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/25-10/2 results)

O’Donnell (R) 40 (34)

Perlmutter (D) 54 (45)

CT-02

Zogby (Reuters). 10/24-29. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/25-10/2 results)

Simmons (R) 47 (44)

Courtney (D) 42 (41)

CT-04

Zogby (Reuters). 10/24-29. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/25-10/2 results)

Shays (R) 44 (41)

Farrell (D) 51 (46)

IL-06

Zogby (Reuters). 10/24-29. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/25-10/2 results)

Roskam (R) 40 (38)

Duckworth (D) 54 (43)

IN-02

Zogby (Reuters). 10/24-29. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/25-10/2 results)

Chocola (R) 39 (39)

Donnelly (D) 52 (49)

IN-09

Zogby for Reuters. 10/24-29. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/25-10/2 results)

Sodrel (R) 46 (38)

Hill (D) 48 (46)

IA-01

Zogby(Reuters). 10/24-29. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/25-10/2 results)

Whalen (R) 42 (34)

Braley (D) 49 (47)

KY-04

Zogby(Reuters). 10/24-29. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/25-10/2 results)

Davis (R) 42 (42)

Lucas (D) 45 (36)

MN-06

Zogby (Reuters). 10/24-29. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/25-10/2 results)

Bachmann (R) 52 (46)

Wetterling (D) 42 (43)

NM-01

Zogby for Reuters. 10/24-29. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/25-10/2 results)

Wilson (R) 44 (40)

Madrid (D) 53 (50)

NC-11

Zogby (Reuters). 10/24-29. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/25-10/2 results)

Taylor (R) 43 (40)

Shuler (D) 48 (51)

OH-18

Zogby (Reuters). 10/24-29. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/25-10/2 results)

Padgett (R) 33 (36)

Space (D) 58 (45)

PA-06

Zogby (Reuters). 10/24-29. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/25-10/2 results)

Gerlach (R) 44 (41)

Murphy (D) 49 (43)

VIRGINIA (2nd CD)

Zogby (Reuters). 10/24-29. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/25-10/2 results)

Drake (R) 51 (42)

Kellam (D) 43 (46)