SSP Daily Digest: 5/4 (Afternoon Edition)

NH-Sen: I’m still hazy on the backstory here, but it’s never a good sign when Politico is running big headlines titled “Fraud case complicates Ayotte bid.” New Hampshire’s Bureau of Securities Regulation director, Mark Connelly, just resigned his job to become a whistleblower, alleging a cover-up by the AG’s office and state banking commission in a fraud case where Financial Resources Mortgage Inc. defrauded New Hampshire investors out of at least $80 million. Connelly was pushing for charges against FRM as early as 2006; the AG in question, of course, was Kelly Ayotte, who resigned her post in mid-2009. Discovery in the matter may be complicated because all of Ayotte’s e-mail and calendars were wiped from her computer after she left the AG’s office.

PA-Sen, PA-Gov (pdf): It looks like Muhlenberg College (on behalf of the Morning Call) is actually going to be doing a daily tracker on the Democratic primary races in the next two weeks as we count down to May 18. Today they find an even narrower gap in the suddenly-closer Arlen Specter/Joe Sestak race: Specter leads Sestak 46-42. Dan Onorato’s numbers in the gubernatorial race aren’t quite as showy, but still dominant: he’s at 36, with Anthony Williams at 9, Joe Hoeffel at 8, and Jack Wagner at 8. Quinnipiac also has similar numbers out today: they also have Specter leading Sestak by only single digits, at 47-39 (down from 53-32 a month ago). In the governor’s race, Qpac finds Onorato at 36, Hoeffel at 9, Wagner at 8, and Williams at 8. The DSCC seems to be sensing some trouble here for their preferred candidate, and they’re dipping into their treasury to help Specter out: the DSCC chipped in for $300K in Specter’s last $407K TV ad buy. Sestak just kicked off TV advertising two weeks ago but is going all in, outspending Specter in the last two weeks, which obviously coincides with his late surge.

AZ-Gov: That Behavior Research Center poll of AZ-Sen from a few weeks ago contained a Republican gubernatorial primary question as well. Their findings mirror the other most recent polls of the primary: vulnerable incumbent Jan Brewer strengthened her hand among GOP primary voters by signing Arizona’s immigration law into effect. She’s at 22, not a lock but well ahead of any opposition: Owen Buz Mills is at 13, Dean Martin is at 10, and John Munger is at 4. (If your calculator isn’t handy, that leaves 51% undecided.)

NH-Gov (pdf): Univ. of New Hampshire is out with another look at New Hampshire’s gubernatorial race, where Democratic incumbent John Lynch is well in control but still facing a tougher race than the last few times. They find Lynch leads GOP challenger John Stephen 49-32, little changed from the February poll where Lynch led 50-30.

WI-Gov: Ex-Rep. Mark Neumann is very much the underdog in the Republican primary in the gubernatorial race (as the DC and local establishments have both embraced Milwaukee Co. Executive Scott Walker instead). But he added a hard-right endorsement to his trophy cabinet today; he got the nod from Tom Coburn.

GA-08: In a clear sign that state Rep. Austin Scott (who recently bailed out of a long-shot gubernatorial campaign) is the man to beat in the GOP primary in the 8th, Angela Hicks got out of the race, saying she didn’t want to hurt Scott’s chances. Local businesswoman Hicks seemed to be considered the frontrunner among the GOPers prior to Scott’s entry, more by virtue of being the least weak rather than the strongest.

HI-01: Barack Obama recorded a robocall for Democratic voters in his hometown district. Despite reports that the White House is joining the DCCC is putting a finger on the scale in favor of Ed Case rather than Colleen Hanabusa in the screwy special election, Obama didn’t name names; he simply urged a vote for “a Democrat.”

NH-02: The largely forgotten state Rep. John DeJoie, the third wheel in the Democratic primary to replace Paul Hodes, cut short his bid today. Despite generally being regarded as from the progressive side of the ledger, DeJoie threw his support to Katrina Swett. DeJoie’s departure, on the balance, may help Ann McLane Kuster, though, by not splitting the progressive vote.

PA-12: I have no idea whether this is good strategy or not, but Mark Critz, hoping to replace former boss John Murtha, is clinging hard to Murtha’s legacy in his new TV ad, seeming to put a lot of faith in polling data showing Murtha still a very popular figure in the district. Critz blasts back at Tim Burns for his own TV spots focusing on Murtha’s ethical woes, telling Burns ungrammatically to stop attacking “someone not there to defend themselves.” Meanwhile, the fight’s on for Murtha’s money: $7K from Murtha’s PAC found its way into Democratic pockets (including $5K for Critz), but the bulk of Murtha’s leftover money is headed for a charitable foundation established by his widow.

CA-St. Sen.: For fans of legislative special elections, it looks like the marquee event between now and November will be the fight for California’s SD-15, a Dem-leaning central coast district vacated by Republican now-Lt. Gov. Abel Maldonado. Republican Assemblyman Sam Blakeslee just got in the race, giving the GOP a solid contender to try and hold the seat as Dems try to push closer to the 2/3s mark in the Senate; he’ll face off against Democratic ex-Assemblyman John Laird in the June 22 election. (If neither candidate breaks 50%, there’ll be an Aug. 17 runoff.)

Redistricting: Lots of redistricting-related action this week, going in two different directions. In Florida, the GOP-held legislature placed a redistricting measure on the November ballot that partially contradicts two citizen initiatives on the ballot that would prevent the legislature from drawing maps that favor one political party. The new proposal would still allow the legislature to take “communities of interest” into consideration when drawing maps. In Illinois, though, two attempts to change redistricting both failed, when the legislature couldn’t muster the votes to put it on the November ballot. Illinois’s arcane methods (which involve breaking ties by pulling a name out of a hat) will apparently still apply for the 2012 redistricting round.

Deutschland: Our man in Cologne, SSPer micha.1976 has a hilarious and remarkable find from the streets of Germany. Remember the impeach-Obama Larouchie, Kesha Rogers, who won the Democratic nomination in TX-22? Her image is now being used on posters for a like-minded LaRouchie candidate in Germany! (J)

SSP Daily Digest: 3/4 (Morning Edition)

With the Daily Digest turning a year old (and starting to get pretty portly on a regular basis), we thought we’d experiment with splitting it into two parts. This may not happen every day, just on an as-needed basis. But with the campaign season really heating up, we may need to do this a lot! Without further ado:

  • NY-Gov: Gov. David Paterson’s free-fall is so spectacular that it’s actually interfering with AG Andrew Cuomo’s investigation of Paterson’s alleged interference in the abuse case against his top aide. Apparently, aides are so eager to brandish their knives in the press that various accounts are coming out publicly before Cuomo’s team can conduct proper interviews, making it hard to get the straight story. Talk about perverse luck for Paterson – though I’m sure it won’t make a difference in the long run.
  • AL-02: State Board of Education member Stephanie Bell has officially entered the Republican primary for Alabama’s 2nd CD. She’ll face off against NRCC Young Gun Martha Roby and teabagging businessman Rick “The Barber” Barber.
  • GA-07: As expected, state Rep. Clay Cox has jumped into the race to succeed John Linder. Cox says he’s a teabagger, loud and proud. Since most ‘baggers tend to be of the Some Dude variety (at best), this has to count as a pretty good get for the tea partiers. (TheUnknown has further updates on the race and the downballot implications.)
  • NY-24: Mike Arcuri has decided to employ the John Kerry strategy: Even though he already voted for healthcare the first time around, now he’s saying he might vote against it. What a profile in courage. Arcuri’s complaints sound like a laundry-list of right-wing talking points. Who’s advising this guy, Lanny Davis and Al From?
  • NY-29: “Shotgun” Randy Kuhl, the man Eric Massa beat in 2008, says he is weighing a comeback. Ex-Corning Mayor Tom Reed has been in the race for a while, but hasn’t raised much and is probably considered shoveable-asidable by bigger players. Some other names in the mix for the GOP include Monroe County Executive Maggie Brooks, state Assembly Minority Leader Brian Kolb, and state Sens. Cathy Young and George Winner (R). (Remember the last time we ran against the Assembly minority leader in upstate NY?)
  • The Dem bench, as Crisitunity noted, is hella thin in these parts, but apparently Assemblyman David Koon is putting out feelers. Hornell (pop. 9K) Mayor Shawn Hogan has also been mentioned as a possibility.

    Also of note, several outfits now report that Massa informed Steny Hoyer about the sexual harassment allegations against him a few weeks ago. Yet before anyone jumps to conclusions, this is no Mark Foley scandal. Hoyer told Massa to report himself to the Ethics Committee, and Massa did just that.

  • Minnesota: In order to comply with a new federal law mandating that overseas voters have sufficient time to mail in their ballots, Gov. Tim Pawlenty finally signed a bill into law which changes MN’s primary from Sep. 14 to Aug. 10. This makes Minnesota the first state with a late primary to resolve this problem – quite a few others will likely need to make similar arrangements.
  • Texas: Get a load of this: Former GOP state Rep. Rick Green was ousted by Dem Patrick Rose in 2002. Four years later, he punched Rose in the face at a polling location. Now, this bag of dicks is in a run-off for the Texas Supreme Court, the state’s highest civil court. Kath Haenschen wants to know: “If Rick Green loses the run-off, will he punch Debra Lehrmann in the face?”
  • Given the absurd number of races on the ballot in Texas, I’m sure Green wasn’t the only maniac to do well last night. In fact, Dems have at least one problem of their own: Kesha Rogers, a LaRouchie who won the nomination in TX-22 (Nick Lampson’s old seat) on a platform of impeaching President Obama. Says Rogers’ website:

    The victory in the 22nd Congressional District yesterday by LaRouche Democrat Kesha Rogers sent an unmistakable message to the White House, and its British imperial controllers: Your days are numbered.

    Fortunately, a spokesperson for the Texas Democratic Party said, “LaRouche members are not Democrats. I guarantee her campaign will not receive a single dollar from anyone on our staff.” Or pounds sterling.