Tag: Ken Lewis

As promised, I would make maps of primary election results. I started with the three big contests on May 4th – the Democratic Senate contests in North Carolina and Ohio, and the GOP Senate contest in Indiana.

This diary is a bit lengthy with all the images, so most of them will go over the flip!

But a taste first (Green is Marshall, Orange is Cunningham, and Purple is Lewis):

As you can see, Marshall did well in most parts of the state, with the notable exceptions being the Piedmont Triad, which went strongly for Cunningham. Lewis won four counties, Durham and three others located in GK Butterfield’s majority-black district.

More over the flip…

More North Carolina:

Marshall, Cunningham, and Lewis’ performances statewide:

Of course, as we all know, Marshall only got 36%, less than the 40% needed and the race is going to a runoff. Here is Marshall’s performance against the 40% threshold. A red circle indicates a loss of votes against the threshold for Marshall, a green circle indicates a gain. As you can see, those are some mighty big red circles in Forsyth and Guilford Counties of the Triad, accompanied by sizable circles in Durham and Charlotte.

However, I’d still call Marshall the favorite heading into the runoff: Looking at her performance directly against Cunningham, we get the following. Cal ran up the margins in a few counties, but a large part of Marshall falling short of 40% is Lewis’ strong draw on the African American vote.

O-H. I-O..(Hey, I can spell Ohio by myself! No love for the Buckeyes here…)

Ohio is a story of regions: Brunner did exceptionally well in the far Northwest, Metro Cincinnati, and the Ohio River counties. Fisher did admirably almost everywhere else, even taking Brunner’s home county of Franklin. (Brunner in green, Fisher in orange.)

While you might be tempted to think this looks relatively evenly matched, Fisher cleaned up in his base area in the Northeast. There are two ways to visualize this:

Brunner did very well in the counties she won, but the juggernaut of votes that is Cuyahoga County can’t be underestimated in a Democratic contest:

Finally, Ohio’s next door neighbor: Indiana.

Dan Coats hobbled to a 40% victory over two people who split the anti-establishment, and it shows. (Coats in orange, Hostettler in green, Stutzman in purple). IN-03 (Souder’s open district where Stutzman might run) and IN-08 (Hostettler’s former district) are highlighted.

John Hostettler might have been bounced from the Bloody Eighth by a margin of 61-39 in 2006, but GOP primary voters in the district still seem to like him: Hoss’ support is VERY regionalized, doing the best in the southwestern corner and dropping off as you progress northeast. Stutzman seemed to have two stronger areas: a stronghold in the 3rd CD, and a belt across the center of the state including Marion County and Columbus.

Coats, again, I think got the benefit of a divided field, something you can easily tell when you compare Coats v. Hoss+Stutz (Green being Coats, Red being the aggregate of Hostettler and Stutzman), as well as the customary pie chart map:

Next edition of the SSP atlas: May 18th.

The daily digest is so hunormous today that we had to CHOP IT IN HALF!

AR-Sen: Chris Cillizza’s incredibly annoying Mr. Rogers wallpaper tweets that Bill Halter raised $2 million in his first month on the trail.

AZ-Sen: This Roll Call piece has some interesting tidbits about the nascent Democratic (yes, Democratic) primary in the Arizona senate race. Tucson city councilman Rodney Glassman is all but running, and he has some personal wealth due to his family’s farming business. He also has the backing of Rep. Raul Grijalva (Glassman was once a Grijalva aide). Some other Dems, however, are talking up the potential candidacy of Nan Stockholm Walden, who is also wealthy and is a well-connected Democratic donor. The knock on Glassman is that he’s young and inexperienced; the knock on Walden is that she was a registered lobbyist for several years. Glassman says he’ll run no matter what Walden decides, and I think a primary here could actually be helpful if it stays clean.

On the GOP side of things, John McCain says he raised $2.2 million in the first quarter and has $4.5m on hand. Primary opponent J.D. Hayworth, meanwhile, seems like he hasn’t been doing quite so hot on the money front.

CA-Sen: A whiff of extra-special dumb: Carly Fiorina sent around an email to supporters describing Passover as a time to “break bread.” Of course, the one thing that Jews don’t eat on Passover is… bread. Trying to wiggle their way out of this one, a staffer tells TWI: “We meant all bread, leavened and unleavened, and matzo is just unleavened bread so that’s what we meant by that.” That still doesn’t work.

CT-Sen: GOP hopeful Linda McMahon is taking heat from opponent and ex-Rep. Rob Simmons for her $10,000 donation to the DCCC in 2006. Not only should this make McMahon suspect to Republicans, argues Simmons, but he seems to be tying that donation to the fact that he himself lost in 2006, perhaps nudged out the door by McMahon’s very own cash. (Considering Simmons came up just 83 votes short, he may have a point.)

FL-Sen: The joke is that when the New York Times finally gets to writing about a hitherto underground phenomenon (steampunk, miracle fruit, etc.), that’s the moment it becomes mainstream and therefore loses its cool. Marco Rubio’s “NYT moment” happened months ago, so anyone endorsing him at this late stage is about as cool as your mom using Facebook. Welcome to the club, Sen. Tom Coburn. Meanwhile, Charlie Crist’s old buddy, former FL GOP chair Jim Greer, is under criminal investigation for some sort of self-dealing.

KY-Sen: I think this is where Paulists probably part ways from teabaggers: Rand Paul thinks the government “shouldn’t be involved” in requiring people to wear seat belts. Not really sure ultra-libertarian whackness like this plays too well in most quarters. Please, please let this guy win the GOP primary. Incidentally, Paul says he’s raised $600K in the last quarter (lower than I would have thought), but also says he’s spent almost all of it. Apparently, though, he’s pre-paid for “the next six weeks of activity” (until the primary), perhaps locking in lower rates on things like TV ads.

MO-Sen: One last odd-n-end from PPP’s MO-Sen poll: Roy Blunt is under 50% against his unknown GOP primary challenger, Chuck Purgason – he leads 48-18. Purgason’s favorables are just 7-9 (not a typo), so obviously there’s a chunk of Republicans out there who just hate Blunt.

NC-Sen: Former Charlotte Mayor Harvey Gantt will endorse attorney Ken Lewis, who is seeking the Dem senate nomination. Gantt himself ran for the Senate twice, losing two close races to the unthinkably odious Jesse Helms. Meanwhile, GOP Sen. Richard Burr says he’s raised $1.4 million in the first quarter and is sitting on a $5.3 mil warchest. No word yet on any of the Dems.

TX-Sen: It looks we will have Kay Bailey Hutchison to kick around some more – for at least the next two years. She announced yesterday that she’ll serve out the remainder of her term, which ends in 2012. I wouldn’t be surprised if she subsequently changed her mind (at least, after this November), but for now, that means TX-Sen comes off our “Races to Watch” list.

WI-Sen: Richie rich Terrence Wall says he’ll stay in the GOP primary even if ex-Gov. Tommy Thompson gets in. Wall had kind words for Thompson, and also thanked him for drawing Democratic fire, but it sounds like Wall wants to present himself as the “true conservative” option.

CA-Gov: Meg Whitman is the latest moron-American to jump onto the “healthcare reform is unconstitutional” bandwagon, agreeing wholeheartedly with a supporter who asked at a campaign event if she would “force your attorney general to file suit” against the legislation. (Of course, CA’s governor can do no such thing.) I really can’t wait until these idiots get punked out of court.

PA-Gov: Some fundraising numbers from some of the big players in Pennsylvania’s gubernatorial race – click the link for details. One of them, Dan Onorato, is up on the air with his first TV ads. No exact word on the size of the buy, but supposedly the ads are in “heavy rotation around the state,” which could cost $1 million.

CA-Sen: Arianna Packard, granddaughter of Hewlett-Packard co-founder David Packard, is slamming Carly Fiorina for “almost destroying” HP. Packard, who had pushed for Fiorina’s ouster from the company in 2005, is supporting rival Chuck DeVore in the GOP primary. (P.S. Carlyfornia just officially filed to run.)

FL-Sen: Tom Jensen is such a tease:

We are going to have absolutely brutal numbers out on Charlie Crist tomorrow.

Here’s a little preview: among Republican primary voters 19% would like to see him as Governor a year from now, 14% want him in the Senate, and 56% want him out of elected office.

If there is any path to his winning office in Florida again – and there may not be – it’s as something other than a Republican.

NC-Sen: Attorney Ken Lewis scored a pretty good endorsement in his uphill Dem primary against Elaine Marshall and Cal Cunningham: Rep. Mel Watt (NC-12) has given Lewis his backing. Watt is the second member of Congress to support Lewis; Rep. G. K. Butterfield, another CBC member, had previously endorsed.

ND-Sen: Former SoS candidate and businesswoman Kristin Hedger (D) is passing on a run to replace the retiring Byron Dorgan. Still, Dems do have a candidate in state Sen. Tracy Potter.

NV-Sen: Huzzah! Harry Reid has officially filed for re-election!

AL-05: This is bipartisanship you can believe in, my friends: Dems and conservatives alike, some 400 strong, protested John Boehner and Parker Griffith outside of a closed-door fundraiser the Minority Leader held in Huntsville for the newest, and least-popular, member of his caucus.

LA-02: CQ Politics sat down for an interview with state Rep. Juan LaFonta, who is aiming to take down GOP Rep. Joe Cao. (So is fellow state Rep. Cedric Richmond.)

PA-06: Doug Pike has proposed a “positive campaign agreement” to Manan Trivedi, his rival for the Dem nomination to take on erstwhile Rep. Jim Gerlach this fall. Trivedi hasn’t made a formal decision yet, but his manager said of Pike’s offer: “It certainly sounds like someone who’s afraid of his own record.”

SC-05: After Dem Rep. John Spratt’s anemic fourth quarter filing prompted renewed speculation that the veteran incumbent may be heading for the exits this year, he’s taking some positive steps towards a re-election bid. Spratt’s office says that the congressman “intends to run again” and will hold a fundraiser at DNC headquarters this week. (JL)

Census: Only one Representative voted against a non-binding resolution to promote participation in the Census last week… did you guess Ron Paul? You guessed right! Memo to U.S. Gov’t: Keep your nose out of my gold bullion stash! Be really curious what happens to this fucking weirdo in redistricting. In less wacky Census news, the Census Bureau started sending out advance notification letters to 120 million households today. Research shows that these letters boost response rates.

Polling: Jed Lewison has some great visualizations of exactly how stark Rasmussen’s “house effect” is.

Voting: This is a good bit of news (and shows you why having Dems in charge of Washington still matters, even if they can’t seem to get anything done in Congress): The Obama DoJ blocked one of the biggest voting machine makers, Electronic Systems & Software, from purchasing Premier Election Solutions (an arm of Diebold). Had the deal gone forward, ES&S would have controlled 70% of the voting machine market. Hooray for competition!