SSP Daily Digest: 10/29 (Afternoon Edition)

FL-Sen: File this under half a year too late and a few million dollars too short. Charlie Crist, as quietly as possible through an advisor making a leak to the Wall Street Journal, says he’d caucus with the Democrats if elected. If he’d said that many months ago, he would have probably had a clearer shot consolidating the Democratic vote and turning it into a two-man race. This comes shortly after a day of conflicting reports on whether or not Bill Clinton tried to get Kendrick Meek to drop out of the race, as recently as last week. Clinton and Meek have offered partial rebuttals, but at any rate, it’s kind of a non-story at this point with only a few days left.

LA-Sen: Too bad there isn’t time left in the cycle to turn this into an ad: David Vitter’s verbal gymnastics at the last debate as to direct questions as to whether or not he actually broke the law when he was engaging in “very serious sin,” apparently for pay. The short answer is, of course, yes (assuming that his involvement with a prostitution ring occurred in Washington DC and not Reno).

NV-Sen: Those of you following Jon Ralston’s tweets of the early voting in Nevada with bated breath probably already know this, but thanks to the movement of the mobile voting booths into some Dem-friendly areas, Democrats have actually pulled into the lead (at least by party registration) among early voters, up by 20,000 in Clark County.

CO-Gov: My first question was why Tom Tancredo would even bother running for office if he felt this way, but then I remembered that he’s running for an executive position this time, not a legislative one. Apparently he’s a believer in a strong executive. Very, very, very strong.

There is a sort of an elitist idea that seeps into the head of a lot of people who get elected. And they begin to think of themselves as, really, there for only one purpose and that is to make laws. And why would you make laws?

IL-Gov: Oooops, ad buy fail. A round of Bill Brady ads were pulled from the air on Thursday because the appropriate television stations didn’t get paid first. It appears to have been a “glitch” (their words) rather than a cash flow problem, though, nothing that a Fed-Exed check won’t fix: the ads will resume running tonight.

PA-Gov: Ah, nice to see that a Republican briefly acknowledge that the fewer people vote, the better Republicans do. Tom Corbett, at a Philadelphia appearance, said that he wanted to keep Democratic participation down, saying “we want to make sure that they don’t get 50 percent.”

OH-13: Sensing a pattern here? A second woman is coming forward to accuse Tom Ganley of sexual harassment. She filed a police report stating that in 2005, while in the middle of a car transaction, Ganley groped her and later propositioned her. This race, despite Ganley’s money, is seeming increasingly like one of the House Dems’ lesser worries.

RGA: I’m not sure what you can do with $6.5 million in half a week, but the RGA is determined to find out. They put that much money into four governor’s races in some of the nation’s largest states: Florida, Illinois, Ohio, and (interestingly, since they haven’t sweated this one before) Pennsylvania. (While the other three are for TV ads, in Florida it’s for GOTV… seemingly something that Rick Scott forgot to purchase.)

Election night: This may be the most shocking news of all today, for the obsessive number crunchers among us. This will be the first election where the powers that be (mostly the AP) will be doing away with precinct reporting. Instead of giving specific numbers of precincts in, they’ll be expressing it as “percentage of expected vote.” The change in longstanding tradition has mostly to do with the increasing prevalence of mail-in votes and early votes, best seen with some locales dumping all their early votes all at once and calling it one precinct, messing with people like us who build complicated models ahead of time.

SSP TV:

IL-Sen: Mark Kirk’s last ad calls Alexi Giannoulias “too immature” for the Senate (um, has he actually seen the Senate in action?)

NV-Sen: Obama! Fear! Tyranny! Aaaghh! And apparently the Carmina Burana playing the background! (Sharron Angle’s closing statement, in other words)

WI-Sen: Russ Feingold puts on a plaid shirt and faces the camera, touting his accomplishments and newspaper endorsements

TX-Gov: Bill White also rolls out his newspaper endorsements, as well as lobbing “career politician” at Rick Perry one last time

MN-06: Taryl Clark’s last ad is a look at real people with real problems in the 6th, and the myriad ways Michele Bachmann blew them off

Rasmussen:

CA-Gov: Jerry Brown (D) 49%, Meg Whitman (R) 45%

CO-Gov: John Hickenlooper (D) 47%, Dan Maes (R) 5%, Tom Tancredo (C) 42%

KY-Sen: Jack Conway (D) 41%, Rand Paul (R) 53%

MA-Gov: Deval Patrick (D-inc) 46%, Charlie Baker (R) 44%, Tim Cahill (I) 6%

OR-Sen: Ron Wyden (D-inc) 53%, Jim Huffman (R) 42%

PA-Sen: Joe Sestak (D) 46%, Pat Toomey (R) 50%

YouGov: The English pollster is out with a slew of polls; the numbers seem very plausible, but they’re conducted over the Internet (probably using at least some sort of rigor, but that alone is enough for relegation to the end of the digest)

CA: Jerry Brown (D) 50%, Meg Whitman (R) 41%; Barbara Boxer (D-inc) 49%, Carly Fiorina (R) 45%

FL: Alex Sink (D) 44%, Rick Scott (R) 41%; Kendrick Meek (D) 18%, Marco Rubio (R) 42%, Charlie Crist (I) 31%

NY: Andrew Cuomo (D) 57%, Carl Paladino (R) 27%; Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc) 57%, Joe DioGuardi (R) 33%; Charles Schumer (D-inc) 59%, Jay Townsend (R) 35%

OH: Ted Strickland (D-inc) 45%, John Kasich (R) 48%; Lee Fisher (D) 40%, Rob Portman (R) 53%

PA: Dan Onorato (D) 41%, Tom Corbett (R) 50%; Joe Sestak (D) 44%, Pat Toomey (R) 50%

SSP Daily Digest: 10/26 (Morning Edition)

  • AZ-Sen, AZ-Gov (Public Policy Polling for Daily Kos): Rodney Glassman (D) 38, John McCain 56; Terry Goddard (D) 44, Jan Brewer (R-inc) 52
  • GA-Sen, GA-Gov (Landmark Communications): Michael Thurmond (D) 35, Johnny Isakson (R-inc) 56; Roy Barnes (D) 39, Nathan Deal (R) 47
  • GA-Sen, GA-Gov (SurveyUSA): Michael Thurmond (D) 34, Johnny Isakson (R-inc) 58; Roy Barnes (D) 39, Nathan Deal (R) 49
  • HI-Gov (Ward Research): Neil Abercrombie (D) 51, Duke Aiona (R) 43
  • HI-01 (Ward Research): Colleen Hanabusa (D) 45, Charles Djou (R-inc) 48
  • IN-Sen (EPIC/MRA): Brad Ellsworth (D) 35, Dan Coats (R) 53
  • LA-Sen (Magellan): Charlie Melancon (D) 35, David Vitter (R-inc) 52
  • MA-04, MA-10 (UNH for the Boston Globe): Barney Frank (D-inc) 46, Sean Bielat (R) 33; Bill Keating (D) 37, Jeff Perry (R) 33
  • MD-01 (OpinionWorks for the Baltimore Sun): Frank Kratovil (D-inc) 40, Andy Harris (R) 40
  • MD-Gov (Abt SRBI for the Washington Post): Martin O’Malley (D-inc) 54, Bob Ehrlich (R) 40
  • MI-01 (EPIC/MRA): Gary McDowell (D) 40, Dan Benishek (R) 42
  • MI-03 (Public Opinion Strategies (R) for Justin Amash): Pat Miles (D) 30, Justin Amash (R) 49
  • MN-Gov (St. Cloud State University): Mark Dayton (D) 40, Tom Emmer (R) 30, Tom Horner (I) 19
  • NE-02 (Wiese Research): Tom White (D) 39, Lee Terry (R-inc) 44
  • NY-Sen-B (PDF) (Marist): Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc) 56, Joe DioGuardi (R) 38
  • OH-Gov (U. Cincinnati for Ohio media): Ted Strickland (D-inc) 47, John Kasich (R) 49
  • OR-Gov (Elway Research): John Kitzhaber (D) 45, Chris Dudley (R) 44
  • OR-01, OR-05 (Elway Research): David Wu (D-inc) 51, Rob Cornilles (R) 38; Kurt Schrader (D-inc) 50, Scott Bruun (R) 38
  • SC-Gov (Insider Advantage): Vincent Sheheen (D) 37, Nikki Haley (R) 51
  • SD-AL (Mason-Dixon): Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D-inc) 43, Kristi Noem (R) 45
  • SD-AL (Nielson Brothers): Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D-inc) 42, Kristi Noem (R) 40
  • TX-Gov (University of Texas): Bill White (D) 40, Rick Perry (R-inc) 50
  • Bonus: UT also tested a wide range of down-ballot races.

  • VA-02 (Christopher Newport University): Glenn Nye (D-inc) 41, Scott Rigell (R) 42
  • Margins & Errors: The DSCC supposedly has some internal with Alexi Giannoulias up 2 in IL-Sen, but this is some NRCC-style crap with no details other than the toplines… Some MI-Gov poll shows that the race still sucks… Frank Guinta is touting an internal in NH-01 that supposedly has him up 53-37, but there isn’t even word of the pollster’s name

    SSP Daily Digest: 10/21 (Afternoon Edition)

    AK-Sen: Congrats to Scott McAdams, who just cleared the McMillion hurdle with $1 million in fundraising so far. The majority of contributions were from Alaska, with 88% contributions of $200 or less.

    KY-Sen: Matt Taibbi’s new Rolling Stone article as he works the Rand Paul beat is a must-read even if it doesn’t have any revelations as freaky as the “Aqua Buddha” story, although there’s some vague and anonymous racism from the newsletter that his snarky secret society put out. The prize-winning quote, though, deals with the Tea Partiers don’t seem terribly phased by any of this:

    (“Well, I used to use that cologne myself,” was the response of one Tea Partier to a question I posed about “Aqua Buddha”)

    MO-Sen: American Crossroads has declared victory in Missouri, and is pulling out of advertising there, where Roy Blunt has a consistent but single-digit lead. (As for the actual party committees… well, it’s probably not relevant, seeing as how Crossroads and its ilk have made them basically irrelevant this year.)

    NV-Sen: Harry Reid racked up a couple endorsements from the big-in-Nevada gaming industry, including PokerPAC. He also got the endorsement of the former chair of the RNC, Frank Fahrenkopf, who warned of the threat Sharron Angle (with her ties to anti-gambling Gary Bauer) might pose to the state’s gaming industry.

    PA-Sen: Ah, sweet Schadenfreude. The Club for Growth is having to plug $1 million into the Pennsylvania Senate race in order to bail out their former boss, Pat Toomey.

    WI-Sen: Yet another story with Ron Johnson with his hand in the trough he so regularly decries: he says he’s not quite sure how five of his employees (and 10 dependents) at his plastics firm Pacur wound up on BadgerCare, the state’s health insurance program for the poor. That would seem to contradict previous statements from the Johnson camp that all Pacur full-time employees are covered by the company’s plan.

    AZ-07, AZ-08: I know John McCain has refudiated all his old mavericky ways, but did he actually have to go so far as to violate his signature piece of mavericky legislation, the McCain-Feingold Act? He recently cut spots for GOP candidates in the 7th and 8th, in which he and Jon Kyl appeared, and paid for them out of Friends of John McCain (his campaign committee). Dems have filed FEC complaints against McCain, saying that if he coordinated with the Ruth McClung and Jesse Kelly campaigns, he would’ve been limited to $4,800 contributions to each (they’d be legal independent expenditures if there was truly no coordination).

    CO-03, CO-04: The gang-that-couldn’t-shoot-straight strikes twice, in two different neighboring Old West districts. In the 3rd, an anti-abortion group has been hitting the airwaves attacking Ken Salazar. That’s fine, but Ken Salazar is the Secretary of Interior. His brother (the one with the mustache) is John Salazar, the Rep. from the 3rd. OK, understandable, since they’re brothers… but how do you explain the confusion in the 4th, where not just some outside group but the Cory Gardner campaign mixed up Betsy Markey with Massachusetts Rep. Ed Markey? They accused her of voting for the Obama budget, which she didn’t; that was the other Markey.

    FL-25: I don’t know how far this will get, but give local Dems in south Florida credit for audaciousness. A Joe Garcia backer filed a lawsuit trying to get David Rivera removed from the ballot. The suit alleges that Rivera should be removed because of state election finance disclosure irregularities, concerning Rivera’s mysterious claims of being a contractor to USAID despite USAID saying he wasn’t. While they cite a comparable case where a state senate candidate was recently stricken from the ballot from similar problems, I’m wondering if it may be too late to do anything about that even if it succeeds on the merits (although if it only serves to move the USAID deception into the spotlight, that’s good too).

    MO-04: More triage news… on the Republican side? Despite news of a Vicky Hartzler internal poll yesterday that showed a tied race, the NRCC is packing up, at least from the Kansas City market. I wonder if that has more to do with feeling neighboring KS-03 is locked down, as there are other smaller media markets in the 4th where they might still spend, but I think this has to count as at least a partial pullout.

    SD-AL: This is an interesting counterpoint to the anti-Pelosi (or at least Pelosi-skeptical) tide that seems to be rising among threatened Blue Dogs, including Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (who’s in the skeptic camp): GOP challenger Kristi Noem is saying that if she wins her race, she’s not sold yet on John Boehner as Republican leader, but would like to see who else might run. Recall that Noem previously politely told Sarah Palin to stay far away from her race, so this isn’t the first time she’s pantomimed independence.

    Early voting: There’s been some buzz today about a CBS News story that says that Dems are doing better than expected in early voting, although it’s kind of shy on actual numbers. It mentions that Dems have outpaced GOPers in early voting in Iowa, Maryland, North Carolina, and Clark Co., Nevada, while there’s a Republican edge in Florida and Colorado. Jon Ralston, of course, has more data on Nevada, while Politico has some Iowa tidbits, involving early ballot requests in IA-03 (where 50% of requests are from Dems, but where Dems are 36% of the electorate) and IA-02 (51% of the requests, 38% of the electorate).

    SSP TV:

    CO-Sen: Women’s Voices Women Vote Action Fund is out with a “high six-figure” buy in Colorado, with the first TV ad to take on Ken Buck’s failure to prosecute that 2005 rape case (the “buyer’s remorse” incident)

    KY-Sen: The DSCC hits Rand Paul on his support for the 23% sales (aka “fair”) tax

    NV-Sen: Sharron Angle wonders how Harry Reid made all that money in her new ad (helpful fact from Jon Ralston: he was a millionaire even before he was in the House)

    WV-Sen: Outsourcing seems to be the hot button issue coming out of focus groups that works for the Dems these days, as the DSCC keeps hitting John Raese on it with their new spot

    AZ-03: Jon Hulburd has another TV ad against Ben Quayle, poking at his values and overall maturity

    HI-01: Colleen Hanabusa’s new ad has a special guest star in the form of Barack Obama

    IN-09: The SEIU goes after Todd Young on Social Security privatization

    NH-01: Carol Shea-Porter, in her own ad, also works the SSP angle against Frank Guinta

    VA-05: Is the DCCC trying to drive up indie teabagger Jeffrey Clark’s numbers? They’re out with a spot hitting Robert Hurt for all the tax-raising he did in the state legislature

    Rasmussen:

    IL-Gov: Pat Quinn (D-inc) 37%, Bill Brady (R) 45%, Rich Whit(n)ey (G) 2%, Scott Lee Cohen (I) 6%

    MO-Sen: Robin Carnahan (D) 43%, Roy Blunt (R) 52%

    ND-AL: Earl Pomeroy (D-inc) 42%, Rick Berg (R) 52%

    NY-Sen-B: Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc) 54%, Joe DioGuardi (R) 33%

    SC-Gov: Vincent Sheheen (D) 38%, Nikki Haley (R) 47%

    Weekend Poll Dump: Senate, Gov, and Other Miscellany

    AK-Sen: National Research, Inc. for the Club for Growth (10/8-9, likely voters):

    Scott McAdams (D): 27

    Lisa Murkowski (WI-inc): 31

    Joe Miller (R): 33

    (MoE: ±4.9%)

    CA-Sen, CA-Gov, Prop 23: Ipsos for Reuters (10/12-14, likely voters, 10/2-4 in parens):

    Barbara Boxer (D-inc): 46 (49)

    Carly Fiorina (R): 45 (45)

    Jerry Brown (D): 48 (50)

    Meg Whitman (R): 44 (43)

    Yes on 23: 35

    No on 23: 46

    (MoE: ±4.6%)

    CT-Gov: Quinnipiac (10/7-11, likely voters, 9/21-26 in parens):

    Dan Malloy (D): 49 (45)

    Tom Foley (R): 42 (42)

    (MoE: ±2.9%)

    FL-Gov: Susquehanna for Sunshine State News (10/12-13, likely voters, 9/28-10/3 in parens):

    Alex Sink (D): 48 (44)

    Rick Scott (R): 44 (50)

    (MoE: ±2.2%)

    HI-Gov: Aloha Vote for Honolulu Civil Beat (10/11, likely voters):

    Neil Abercrombie (D): 47

    Duke Aiona (R): 44

    (MoE: ±2.9%)

    KS-Sen, KS-Gov: Survey USA for KWCH-TV (10/10-12, likely voters, 9/14-16 in parens):

    Tom Holland (D): 32 (32)

    Sam Brownback (R): 60 (59)

    Andrew Gray (L): 3 (3)

    Ken Cannon (Ref): 4 (4)

    Lisa Johnston (D): 27 (24)

    Jerry Moran (R): 67 (66)

    Michael Dann (L): 2 (2)

    Joe Bellis (Ref): 3 (5)

    (MoE: ±4%)

    For SoS, Dems trail 35-53; for State Treasurer, it’s 39-55. For Attorney General, appointed Dem Steve Six trails Derek Schmidt 40-48.

    MA-Gov: Suffolk University (10/10-12, registered voters, 9/14-16 in parens):

    Deval Patrick (D-inc): 46 (41)

    Charlie Baker (R): 39 (34)

    Tim Cahill (I): 10 (14)

    Jill Stein (G): 1 (4)

    (MoE: ±4.4%)

    ME-Gov: Critical Insights for Maine Today Media (10/10-11, likely voters, 9/27 in parens):

    Libby Mitchell (D): 29 (33)

    Paul LePage (R): 34 (33)

    Eliot Cutler (I): 13 (10)

    Shawn Moody (I): 7 (6)

    Kevin Scott (I): 1 (-)

    (MoE: ±4.0%)

    MN-Gov: SurveyUSA for KSTP-TV (10/11-13, likely voters, 9/12-14 in parens):

    Mark Dayton (DFL): 42 (38)

    Tom Emmer (R): 37 (36)

    Tom Horner (IP): 14 (18)

    Other: 3 (5)

    (MoE: ±3.7%)

    NH-Sen: University of New Hampshire (10/7-12, likely voters, 9/23-29 in parens):

    Paul Hodes (D): 35 (35)

    Kelly Ayotte (R): 50 (50)

    Other: 3 (2)

    (MoE: ±3.7%)

    NV-Sen, NV-Gov: MasonDixon for the LVRJ (10/11-12, likely voters, 9/20-22 in parens):

    Harry Reid (D-inc): 45 (43)

    Sharron Angle (R): 47 (43)

    Other: 2 (2)

    NOTA: 2 (4)

    Rory Reid (D): 37 (37)

    Brian Sandoval (R): 52 (51)

    Other: 2 (3)

    NOTA: 1 (2)

    (MoE: ±4%)

    NV-Gov: Public Policy Polling (10/7-9, likely voters, July in parens):

    Rory Reid (D): 43 (38)

    Brian Sandoval (R): 52 (52)

    (MoE: ±4.4%)

    NV-Gov: Suffolk University (10/8-11, likely voters, in parens):

    Rory Reid (D): 39

    Brian Sandoval (R): 50

    Other: 2

    NOTA: 3

    (MoE: ±4.4%)

    Bonus findings: Incumbent LG Brian Krolicki (R) leads Dem Jessica Sferrazza 42-30, Dem SoS Ross Miller leads 40-24, Dem Treasurer Kate Marshall trails 33-38, and Dem Controller Kim Wallin leads 31-26.

    NY-Gov, NY-Sen, NY-Sen-B: SurveyUSA for WABC-TV, WHEC-TV, and WNYT-TV (10/11-13, likely voters, in parens):

    Andrew Cuomo (D): 59 (57)

    Carl Paladino (R): 33 (34)

    Other: 6 (5)

    Chuck Schumer (D): 63 (60)

    Jay Townsend (R): 30 (30)

    Other: 4 (6)

    Kirsten Gillibrand (D): 54 (54)

    Joe DioGuardi (R): 36 (35)

    Other: 7 (8)

    (MoE: ±3.9%)

    Bonus finding: Manhattan/Bronx state Senator Eric Schneiderman (D) leads Staten Island DA Dan Donovan (R) for Attorney General 44-40, down from 46-40 a week ago.

    OH-Sen, OH-Gov: Univ. of Cincinnati for the Ohio Poll(10/8-13, likely voters, 9/16-20 in parens):

    Lee Fisher (D): 36 (40)

    Rob Portman (R): 58 (55)

    Ted Strickland (D-inc): 43 (45)

    John Kasich (R): 51 (49)

    (MoE: ±3.7%)

    OK-Sen: Sooner Poll (10/3-7, likely voters):

    Jim Rogers (D): 22

    Tom Coburn (R-inc): 62

    Other: 2

    (MoE: ±5.2%)

    Other results here find the GOP leading for all statewide offices: 40-28 for LG, 50-30 for Attorney General, 41-35 for Insurance Commissioner, 45-31 for Treasurer, 35-32 for State Superintendent, 44-33 for Labor Commissioner, and 41-35 for Auditor/Inspector. Dems had held most of these offices, if you’ll recall.

    OR-Gov, OR-Sen: SurveyUSA for KATU-TV (10/12-14, likely voters, 9/12-14 in parens):

    John Kitzhaber (D): 46 (43)

    Chris Dudley (R): 45 (49)

    Greg Kord (C): 4 (3)

    Wes Wagner (L): 3 (2)

    Ron Wyden (D-inc): 56 (54)

    Jim Huffman (R): 34 (38)

    Bruce Cronk (WF): 2 (3)

    Marc Delphine (L): 2 (1)

    Rick Staggenborg (P): 2 (0)

    (MoE: ±3.9%)

    PA-Gov: Magellan (10/10, likely voters, 9/21 in parens):

    Dan Onorato (D): 38 (38)

    Tom Corbett (R): 48 (50)

    (MoE: ±2.3%)

    VT-Sen, VT-Gov, VT-AL: Mason-Dixon for Vermont Public Radio (10/11-13, registered voters):

    Patrick Leahy (D-inc): 62

    Len Britton (R): 27

    Other: 4

    Peter Shumlin (D): 43

    Brian Dubie (R): 44

    Other: 5

    Peter Welch (D): 61

    Paul Beaudry (R): 25

    Other: 4

    (MoE: ±4%)

    WA-Sen: Washington Poll (10/5-14, registered voters, in parens):

    Patty Murray (D-inc): 50

    Dino Rossi (R): 42

    (MoE: ±4.3%)

    WA-Sen: SurveyUSA for KING-TV (10/11-14, likely voters, in parens):

    Patty Murray (D-inc): 50 (50)

    Dino Rossi (R): 47 (48)

    (MoE: ±4.1%)

    SSP Daily Digest: 10/8 (Afternoon Edition)

    AK-Sen: Joe Miller finally got around to belatedly filing his financial disclosures, maybe feeling he had something to hide. He really shouldn’t, because he’s just like the rest of us: he’s carrying a lot of credit card debt. He owes between $35K and $80K on three separate charge accounts, and also owes himself $103K for a campaign loan.  That, my friends, is fiscal conservatism you can believe in. (His biggest asset seems to be undeveloped farmland worth at least $250K, apparently the same Delta Jct. land for which he was receiving farm subsidies.)

    FL-Sen: Here’s a freaky rumor (and I think it’s nothing more than that, as everything seems to be business as usual with the Kendrick Meek camp today, at least on the surface). The Wall St. Journal alludes to increased chatter that a Meek/Charlie Crist deal might be in the works for Meek to drop out of the race and clear the way for Crist to take all the left-of-center votes.

    IL-Sen, IL-Gov: The DGA is out with an internal poll of Illinois, via Global Strategy Group. The poll, though, has better news on the Senate front than the gubernatorial battle. Alexi Giannoulias leads Mark Kirk by 3: 40-37, with 3 each to the Green and Libertarian candidates. On the other hand, Pat Quinn, who’s popped up in the lead in a couple polls lately, trails Bill Brady by 1, at 36-35, with 4 for Green Rich Whitney, 2 for Lex Green, and 6 for Scott Lee Cohen. Just the fact that Quinn seems to be climbing back into the thick of things at this late date seems to be newsworthy in itself, though.

    MO-Sen: As is often the case with these advancing-in-a-different-direction stories, there have been some mixed signals about whether the DSCC is packing up in Missouri. Hotline is observing that this seems to be at least partially the case: they’ve canceled buys from Oct. 11 to Oct. 25, although the buy still seems intact for the last week before the election. They’ve spent $1.8 million in Missouri so far, but probably will be looking to spend that money on defense in West Virginia, or maybe even Washington, which seems to be slowly edging back onto the map.

    NV-Sen: We might expect a steady stream of endorsements on a regular basis from now until the election for Harry Reid from not-insane Republicans. Two were just unveiled in the last few days. One is from Bill Raggio, the former Republican leader in the state Senate (and a legislator since 1972), who has particular reason to dislike Sharron Angle, as she tried to primary him out of his Reno-area seat in 2008. The other is Dema Guinn, the widow of the recently deceased ex-Gov. Kenny Guinn, who also says that her former husband would have backed Reid in this case too.

    NY-Sen-B, NY-Gov: Quinnipiac (10/1-5, likely voters, 9/16-20 in parens):

    Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc): 55 (48)

    Joe DioGuardi (R): 34 (42)

    Undecided: 11 (9)

    (MoE: ±2.9%)

    SurveyUSA (10/5-7, likely voters, 9/20-21 in parens):

    Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc): 54 (45)

    Joe DioGuardi (R): 35 (44)

    Other: 8 (8)

    Undecided: 3 (4)

    Andrew Cuomo (D): 57 (49)

    Carl Paladino (R): 34 (40)

    Other: 5 (8)

    Undecided: 3 (3)

    (MoE: ±4%)

    I think we can conclude that both those previous Quinnipiac and SurveyUSA polls — the two ones that came out simultaneously and had the big New York races in single digits, spurring a wave of panic — were some combination of a perfect wave of primary bounce and big honkin’ outlier. These races have resumed looking pretty much the way they have all cycle except for those two blips.

    We also have NY-Sen-A numbers (60-30 for Chuck Schumer over Jay Townsend in SurveyUSA, and 63-32 in Quinnipiac), and NY-AG numbers (Eric Schneiderman leads Dan Donovan 46-40 in SurveyUSA, and 43-32 in Quinnipiac). Quinnipiac also has Thomas DiNapoli leading Harry Wilson 49-31 in the Comptroller race.

    MO, NV, NY: CNN/Time Roundup

    Opinion Research for CNN/Time (10/1-5, likely voters):

    MO-Sen:

    Robin Carnahan (D): 40

    Roy Blunt (R): 53

    (MoE: ±3.5%)

    NV-Sen, NV-Gov (9/10-14 in parens):

    Harry Reid (D-inc): 40 (41)

    Sharron Angle (R): 42 (42)

    Scott Ashjian (T): 7 (5)

    Rory Reid (D): 33 (31)

    Brian Sandoval (R): 56 (58)

    (MoE: ±3.5%)

    Interestingly, Harry Reid’s lead actually increased among registered voters — from 42-34 in September to 43-32 today. Without Ashjian on the ballot, Angle still leads by the same margin among LVs, 47-45.

    NY-Sen-B, NY-Gov:

    Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc): 55

    Joe DioGuardi (R): 41

    Andrew Cuomo (D): 55

    Carl Paladino (R): 41

    (MoE: ±4%)

    Again, turnout is a factor here. Among RVs, Gillibrand leads DioGuardi by 60-33, and Cuomo stomps the repulsively vile Carl Paladino by 65-31. This poll also tested Chuck Schumer’s re-election, and finds him up by 57-41 over Jay Townsend.

    SSP Daily Digest: 10/5 (Afternoon Edition)

    AK-Sen: It’s never a dull moment with Joe Miller in the race. Hot on the heels of the news that he believes that federal unemployment insurance is unconstitutional, today comes the news that his wife went on unemployment after leaving a job in 2004, and that Miller did not disown his wife for betraying the Founding Fathers. But wait, it just gets more interesting: the job Miller’s wife left was working for… Miller himself. He hired his wife as a part-time clerk when he was working for several years as a magistrate judge for the federal district court (y’know, for the federal government he just hates so much). Local gadfly (and Lisa Murkowski ally) Andrew Halcro is, in fact, suggesting that Miller was forced to fire his wife because the blatant nepotism may have been a violation of court policies. (Of course, Miller’s response was that Murkowski’s not one to talk about nepotism.)

    And on top of that, now it’s come out that Miller is a full-on Seventeenther. In other words, part of the new crop of right-wingers who want you to vote for him so he can take away your rights to vote for him in the future.

    HI-Sen: Term-limited GOP Gov. Linda Lingle is saying she’ll “take a look” at a Senate bid in 2012. That seat’s current occupant, Dan Akaka, is 86 years old, so it’s not clear whether he’ll run for another term or not. Lingle is probably the only Republican on the bench in Hawaii with enough juice to make a Senate race, especially an open seat one, competitive.

    IL-Sen, IL-Gov: Mark Kirk is out with an internal poll (from Fulcrum), giving him a much larger lead than, well, anyone else, considering that most pollsters have seen this within a point or two either way. His poll says he leads Alexi Giannoulias 42-33, with 2 for the Green Party’s LeAlan Jones. (The same poll also shows Bill Brady leading Pat Quinn 39-27 in the Governor’s race.) Sitting on a big cash advantage, Kirk has reserved most of his entire kitty ($5.2 million) on ad buys for the remaining month.

    WI-Sen: Russ Feingold seems determined to follow Nancy Boyda down the path of integrity/obscurity. He’s telling the DSCC (who haven’t advertised yet on his behalf) to back off and let him fight the election himself. Says Feingold: “I consider it to be outside help of a kind that is uncontrolled and tends to believe in a philosophy of slash-and-burn politics. That’s frankly not who I am. I don’t want to win that way.”

    NH-Gov: Univ. of New Hampshire (9/23-29, likely voters, July in parentheses):

    John Lynch (D-inc): 51 (54)

    John Stephen (R): 34 (29)

    (MoE: ±4.3%)

    Considering that UNH’s sample had Paul Hodes down by 15 and Carol Shea-Porter losing too, it’s pleasantly surprising to see John Lynch hanging in there with little trouble (in contrast to several other recent polls, such as UNH’s in-state rival for weird results, ARG).

    WV-Gov: I guess the 2010 election is over already? Because the conversation today already seems to be changing to 2012. Republican state Sen. Clark Barnes (whom you might remember for briefly getting in and then getting out of the field in WV-01 last year) says he’ll run for governor two years from now.

    NY-20: Finding himself on the very wrong end of both a Siena poll and a Scott Murphy internal, Chris Gibson offers up a POS internal of his own, taken 9/27-28, showing that he’s still within striking distance. He says he trails Murphy 42-38.

    VA-05: Here’s one more Dem poll from the 5th that shows Tom Perriello is narrowly trailing, but not officially dead yet. Rob Hurt leads Perriello 44-43 in a poll sponsored by the League of Conservation Voters and the SEIU (no word on who the pollster is, though). (UPDATE: The pollster is David Dougherty, and the memo is here. The sample was taken 9/20-23 with a 4.4% MoE.)

    American Crossroads: Remember back when we all laughed at American Crossroads for not raising any money, apparently because they were waiting for the million-dollar checks from their half-a-dozen billionaire donors to clear? Ha ha, boy, those were simpler times. Anyway, Democracy 21 and the Campaign Legal Center are going to the IRS to ask for an investigation of Crossroads GPS, one tentacle of the group that’s organized as a non-profit “social welfare organization” or 501(c)(4). The larger Crossroads is a PAC, but GPS itself isn’t supposed to participate in campaigns. Rather than take it up with the FEC, which has fallen into chaotic uselessness because of empty seats on the commission, they’re going straight to the IRS, alleging tax law violations instead.

    Fundraising:

    MO-Sen: Roy Blunt raised $2 million in 3Q, no CoH given

    PA-07: Pat Meehan raised $725K, giving him $1.5 million CoH

    SSP TV:

    AK-Sen: Two different ads, one a coordinated spot between the Joe Miller camp and the NRSC that’s a bio spot for Miller, the other a Tea Party Express one-minute extravaganza that calls Lisa Murkowski a liar, a fraud, and various other things

    IN-Sen: Here’s a link to that Brad Ellsworth ad we mentioned yesterday, where he literally calls Dan Coats a sellout over that all-covers album he released outsourcing

    KY-Sen: The DSCC rolls out an ad hitting Rand Paul on his proposed $2,000 Medicare deductible, while Paul’s newest ad returns to the Jack Conway=Obama theme

    MO-Sen: Robin Carnahan goes back to the theme of Roy Blunt’s cozy DC insider relationships

    NY-Sen-B: Joe DioGuardi’s first ad is an intro spot, as well as bemoaning the dwindling American Dream

    WA-Sen: The DSCC revisits Dino Rossi’s days as a state Senator, including support for cutting unemployment benefits and the minimum wage

    WI-Sen: Russ Feingold takes the GOP to task for prematurely celebrating short of the end zone

    WV-Sen: John Raese follows the NRSC’s lead with his own ad doing the Joe Manchin=Obama thing

    FL-Gov: The DGA’s out with a Florida ad with various law enforcement officials bashing Rick Scott’s Medicare fraud

    NH-Gov: Here’s the ad of the day: John Lynch leaps out of the gate and punches John Stephen in the nose over scandals at New Hampshire’s HHS Dept.

    OH-Gov: Ted Strickland, bedecked in camo, reminds the state’s hunters who got the NRA’s backing

    PA-Gov: Well, at least Tom Corbett isn’t saying Dan Onorato = Obama, but he is saying Onorato = Ed Rendell

    RI-Gov: The DGA hits Lincoln Chafee from the right? Their new ad says that vulnerable Rhode Islanders can’t afford all the new taxes Chafee wants

    FL-24: Suzanne Kosmas hits Sandy Adams over the Paul Ryan roadmap

    PA-04: Oh, good… more kids complaining about how their allowance isn’t big enough to cover all the debt they’re going to have to pay off, courtesy of Keith Rothfus

    Rasmussen:

    AZ-Sen: Rodney Glassman (D) 33%, John McCain (R-inc) 54%

    CA-Sen: Barbara Boxer (D-inc) 49%, Carly Fiorina (R) 45%

    CO-Gov: John Hickenlooper (D) 43%, Dan Maes (R) 16%, Tom Tancredo (C) 35%

    CO-Sen: Michael Bennet (D-inc) 45%, Ken Buck (R) 50%

    Rasmussen (appearing as Fox/Pulse):

    CT-Gov: Dan Malloy (D) 47%, Tom Foley (R) 41%

    CT-Sen: Richard Blumenthal (D) 52%, Linda McMahon (R) 42%

    MO-Sen: Robin Carnahan (D) 42%, Roy Blunt (R) 50%

    NV-Sen: Harry Reid (D-inc) 46%, Sharron Angle (R) 49%

    OH-Gov: Ted Strickland (D-inc) 43%, John Kasich (R) 49%

    OH-Sen: Lee Fisher (D) 37%, Rob Portman (R) 53%

    WV-Sen: Joe Manchin (D) 43%, John Raese (R) 48%

    SSP Daily Digest: 9/28

    AK-Sen: Daily Kos just added Scott McAdams to its Orange to Blue list, so if you’re still looking to throw some money in his direction, you can do so via Big Orange. Meanwhile, Lisa Murkowski is trying to gear up her write-in campaign, and with Ted Stevens having been laid to rest this week, she’s mulling whether to roll out those ads featuring Stevens that she had ready to go pre-primary but pulled because of his death. This can’t be good news for Murkowski, though: Rep. Don Young, more from the Murkowski/Stevens wing of the local GOP than the teabagger wing, is having a bout of self-preservation and is staying neutral, not endorsing anyone in the race. Finally, here’s one more page in Joe Miller’s ongoing saga of milking the system that he hates so darn much: when new to Alaska (but after he’d bought his expensive house and started working as an attorney), he obtained an indigent hunting/fishing license that required an income of less than $8,200/yr.

    DE-Sen: Christine O’Donnell says she attended Oxford. Oh, no, wait, she took a course from something called the Phoenix Institute that “rented space from” Oxford. Why am I not surprised?

    FL-Sen: I always figured that the early love affair between the local teabaggery and Marco Rubio wouldn’t last; he seemed more from the mainstream Jeb Bush camp and it seemed more a marriage of convenience based on his charisma but mostly on the fact that he wasn’t Charlie Crist. Anyway, he’s pretty much severed the relationship and making a break for the establishment with his latest revelation, that he decided several months ago against privatizing Social Security after concluding the idea “doesn’t work.” (If Ken Buck gets elected, I wonder how long it’ll take him to make the same move?)

    IL-Sen: The DSCC is keeping on pouring money into the Land of Lincoln, bolstering Alexi Giannoulias. They’re adding another $400K to the pile, for another week on the air.

    KY-Sen: The NRSC is taking the opposite tack, engaging in a little advertisus interruptus and pulling out for a week from Kentucky. (They claim they’re doing so from a position of strength, naturally.) Meanwhile, this is kind of small ball ($1,400 in contributions from three guys), but it’s still the kind of headline you probably don’t want to see if you’re Rand Paul, especially once you’ve made your feelings on the Civil Rights Act clear:

    Conway camp calls on Paul to return money from white separatists

    NY-Sen-B: Marist (9/19-22, likely voters, 5/3-5 in parentheses):

    Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc): 52 (50)

    Joe DioGuardi (R): 41 (30)

    Undecided: 7 (20)

    (MoE: ±4%)

    Marist gives you a buffet of different numbers of choose from, as it’s 54-42 for Gillibrand when leaners are pushed, or it’s 55-36 when polling just registered voters (meaning there’s an enthusiasm gap worth 8 points here). They also find Chuck Schumer having no problems in the other Senate race, leading Jay Townsend 58-37 among LVs (and 63-32 among RVs).

    WI-Sen: Ron Johnson’s one act of political participation prior to this year — testifying before the state legislature in opposition to the bipartisan-supported Wisconsin Child Victims Act — is getting a second look in the press. His main interest in opposing the bill was that it could lead to corporations or other business entities being held liable for acts of employees, worried about the “economic havoc” it would create (and worried that those meddling “trial lawyers” would benefit). Think Progress has video of the testimony.

    WV-Sen: This seems like a new one to me… John Raese is actually paying people to write letters to the editor on his behalf. Not just offering them McCain Bucks that can’t be redeemed for anything in the real world, but running an actual contest giving money to people who get the most letters published. Also, I’ll give John Raese credit for being himself even when he’s being followed around by reporters. Here’s his reaction to finding out that the NRA endorsement went to Joe Manchin:

    Raese speaks angrily into the phone, his words full of threat: “Tell them that I have an A plus rating with them, and that if they are fair they should include that. Tell them about the polling. Tell them I’m riding an elephant.” Raese pulls the cell phone away from his ear,  hands it back to Patrick the driver, and says “That has made it a lot harder.”

    CT-Gov: Little known fact: did you know that Jodi Rell still hasn’t endorsed Tom Foley yet, despite only weeks to go? Foley’s camp is saying it’s imminent, but it looks like Rell has summoned up even less enthusiasm in the general as she did for her Lt. Gov., Michael Fedele, in the GOP primary.

    FL-Gov: Here’s an interesting endorsement for Alex Sink: she got the backing of term-limited Republican state Sen. Alex Villalobos. Villalobos is also backing Charlie Crist (and even Dan Gelber in the AG race), so this exactly a sign of the Republican edifice collapsing, though.

    IA-Gov, SD-AL: Add one more to the long list of Dems who are getting a nice NRA endorsement as their box-of-Rice-a-Roni-and-can-of-Turtle-Wax-style parting gift on their way out the studio door. Chet Culver just got the backing of the gun lobby. (One state to the north, they also just backed Stephanie Herseth Sandlin today.)

    CA-44: PPP for Democrats.com (9/24-26, likely voters, no trendlines):

    Bill Hedrick (D): 38

    Ken Calvert (R-inc): 49

    Undecided: 13

    (n=760)

    Despite being woefully underfunded, Bill Hedrick’s keeping the race competitive in his rematch against Ken Calvert (recall that he almost won, out of nowhere, in 2008). How he makes up that last 12 points in this climate, though, I’m not sure.

    FL-22: Harstad Research Group for Project New West (9/20-22, likely voters, no trendlines):

    Ron Klein (D): 48

    Allen West (R): 43

    Undecided: 9

    (n=504)

    There’s lots of back-and-forth in the polling of the 22nd, with each side sporting their own internal with a lead in the last week. Dem pollster Harstad weighs in with another one going in Ron Klein’s column.

    KS-03: Moore money, Moore problems? Retiring Rep. Dennis Moore is still busy emptying out his campaign coffers, transferring $100K more to the Kansas Democratic party (on top of a previous $100K in June). That’s probably with the understanding that the money will be used to pay for their newest mailer in support of Stephene Moore, running to succeed her husband.

    NH-01, NH-02: American Research Group (9/22-26, likely voters, no trendlines):

    Carol Shea-Porter (D-inc): 40

    Frank Guinta (R): 50

    Undecided: 8

    Ann McLane Kuster (D): 36

    Charlie Bass (R): 38

    Undecided: 21

    (MoE: ±5%)

    Here are some unusual results from ARG! (although should we expect anything else?): they find Carol Shea-Porter getting keelhauled in the 1st, while the open seat battle in the 2nd is a swashbuckling battle (contrary to other polls we’ve seem of these races, where the 1st has been a tossup or a narrow CSP advantage while the 2nd has looked bad).

    PA-08: I’ve been patiently waiting here for actual toplines for more than a day, but it seems like they aren’t forthcoming… so I’ll just let you know there’s a Harstad Research Group poll (on behalf of SEIU and VoteVets, not the Patrick Murphy campaign) out in the 8th that gives Murphy a 3-point lead over Mike Fitzpatrick and an 8-point lead among voters who voted in 2006. It was taken Sept. 20-22.

    WI-07: Garin Hart Yang for Julie Lassa (9/26-27, likely voters, in parentheses):

    Julie Lassa (D): 41

    Sean Duffy (R): 42

    Gary Kauther (I): 7

    Undecided: 10

    (MoE: ±4.4%)

    I don’t know how good a sign this is, releasing an internal where you’re still trailing in a Democratic-leaning district. Lassa needs to let the donors know she’s still in this, I suppose.

    WV-03: Global Strategy Group for DCCC (9/23-26, likely voters, no trendlines):

    Nick Rahall (D-inc): 55

    Spike Maynard (R): 37

    Undecided: 8

    (MoE: ±4.8%)

    Well, here’s one district where all the polls (even the one from AFF) are consistent in showing a nearly-20 point edge for long-time Dem Nick Rahall.

    NY-St. Sen.: Four polls from Siena of key New York State Senate races have, on the balance, bad news for the Democrats: Darrell Aubertine, the first Democrat in several geological epochs to hold SD-48 in the North Country, is trailing GOP opponent Pattie Ritchie for re-election, 48-45. Brian Foley, in Long Island-based SD-4, is also in a tough race, leading Lee Zeldin 44-43. Meanwhile, two Republican incumbents are looking fairly safe: Frank Padavan, who barely survived 2008 in Dem-leaning Queens-based SD-11, leads ex-city councilor Tony Avella 56-32, while in SD-44, Hugh Farley leads Susan Savage 55-37. (I’d rather see them poll the open seat races; that’s where the Republicans are at more risk.)

    Mayors: There aren’t a lot of big-city mayoral races where the decisive vote is in November (most were wrapped up in the primaries), but one interesting one is Louisville, where the longtime Dem incumbent Jerry Abramson is leaving in order to run for LG next year. Dem Greg Fischer (who you may remember from the 2008 Senate primary) is beating Republican city councilor Hal Heiner 48-42, according to SurveyUSA.

    DLCC: You probably saw yesterday that the DLCC is out with a first round of 20 “essential races” for controlling key state legislative chambers. Well, over in diaries, now they’re soliciting suggestions for further additions to the list, so please add some suggestions from races that are near and dear to your own hearts.

    SSP TV:

    CA-Sen: The Chamber of Commerce, trying to salvage this dwindling race, tries to hang the “career politician” tag on Barbara Boxer

    CO-Sen: The DSCC goes after Ken Buck on Social Security again

    CO-Sen: The NRSC runs an anti-Michael Bennet ad, hitting him on his support for health care reform

    DE-Sen: The DSCC crams as much Christine O’Donnell insanity as it can into 30 seconds

    IL-Sen: Mark Kirk goes back to where he began, with another bio spot of small town boy made good

    PA-Sen: Joe Sestak’s newest ad keeps on trying to tie Pat Toomey to Wall Street

    WV-Sen: The DSCC goes after John Raese for supporting eliminating the minimum wage and his own ooopses at his own company

    CT-Gov: The DGA hits Tom Foley on outsourcing in his former career as textile magnate

    MI-Gov: The RGA hits Virg Bernero on spending as mayor (OMG! he spent $1,277 on pencils!)

    NM-Gov: Another Susana Martinez attack ad hits Diane Denish for some bungled solar power thingamajig

    TX-Gov: Here’s a mindblowing stat: the DGA has never paid for advertising in Texas… until now. They’re out with an attack on Rick Perry, calling him what nobody wants to be called this cycle (“career politican”)

    KY-03: Todd Lally’s out with two ads, one a bio spot, the other a pretty funny attack on John Yarmuth using the K-Tel greatest hits album motif

    MI-07: Tim Walberg has to call on his mom for help: not to do any polling on his behalf, just to appear in an ad about Social Security

    NC-02: This was probably inevitable… AJS weighs into the 2nd with an ad using Bob Etheridge going apeshit on a poor innocent little tracker

    NC-11: Repent now or Jeff Miller will forever cast you into the fiery pits of Nancy Pelosi’s hell!

    ND-AL: Earl Pomeroy touts how well he cooperated with George W. Bush! (on Medicare Part D, though, which probably plays well among North Dakota’s aging population)

    PA-08: Outsourcing must be polling well for the Dems these days, as Patrick Murphy hits Mike Fitzpatrick on that

    VA-05: Indie candidate Jeff Clark scrounged up enough money to advertise? And he’s attacking GOPer Robert Hurt? That’s good enough for me

    Rasmussen:

    CT-Gov: Dan Malloy (D) 50%, Tom Foley (R) 40%

    WV-Sen: Joe Manchin (D) 46%, John Raese (R) 48%

    Fox/Pulse (aka Rasmussen):

    CO-Gov: John Hickenlooper (D) 44%, Dan Maes (R) 15%, Tom Tancredo (C) 34%

    CO-Sen: Michael Bennet (D-inc) 43%, Ken Buck (R) 47%

    IL-Gov: Pat Quinn (D-inc) 36%, Bill Brady (R) 46%, Rich Whitney (G) 8%

    IL-Sen: Alexi Giannoulias (D) 40%, Mark Kirk (R) 42%, LeAlan Jones (G) 7%

    OH-Gov: Ted Strickland (D-inc) 43%, John Kasich (R) 45%

    OH-Sen: Lee Fisher (D) 37%, Rob Portman (R) 50%

    WA-Sen: Patty Murray (D-inc) 48%, Dino Rossi (R) 47%

    WI-Gov: Tom Barrett (D) 45%, Scott Walker (R) 49%

    WI-Sen: Russ Feingold (D-inc) 44%, Ron Johnson (R) 52%

    NY-Sen-B: Did This Race Just Get a Lot Closer All of a Sudden? (Part 2)

    Quinnipiac (9/16-20, likely voters, 8/23-29 in parens):

    Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc): 48 (43)

    Joe DioGuardi (R): 42 (28)

    Other: 2 (1)

    Undecided: 9 (25)

    (MoE: ±3.6%)

    SurveyUSA:

    Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc): 45

    Joe DioGuardi (R): 44

    Other: 8

    Undecided: 4

    (MoE: ±4.2%)

    Siena (PDF) (9/16-17 & 9/19-21, registered voters, 8/9-12 in parens):

    Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc): 57 (54)

    Joe DioGuardi (R): 31 (29)

    Undecided: 12 (17)

    (MoE: ±3.5%)

    You tell me.

    SSP Daily Digest: 9/21 (Afternoon Edition)

    AK-Sen: Joe Miller finally fessed up to what we told you about last week (concerning farmland he owned in Alaska): he’s a hypocrite on the farm subsidy issue, having gladly accepted them while railing against them. This time, it’s about a different parcel of farmland in Kansas that he owned before moving to Alaska, receiving $7K in GOVERNMENT HANDOUTS FOR LAZY UNPRODUCTIVE PEOPLE WHO’VE MADE BAD LIFESTYLE CHOICES!!!1! between the years 1990 and 1997. And check out the excuse he offers: “This was back in the ’90s, the situation the country was in was far different than now.” (Uh huh… when some guy named Bill Clinton was running a surplus.)

    DE-Sen: Whoops. Prior to getting their establishment asses handed them to them on the end of a mob-wielded pitchfork, the Delaware state GOP filed a FEC complaint against Christine O’Donnell for illegal campaign coordination with and excessive contributions from the Tea Party Express. Now that they’re saddled with her as the nominee, the FEC is telling them no-backsies, and that they can’t withdraw the complaint… the complaint against their own nominee.

    NC-Sen: And now it’s Richard Burr’s turn in the hypocrisy dunk tank. An announcement of 240 new jobs and a $130 million expansion at Cree Inc. in Durham is drawing four major Democrats and Richard Burr to celebrate. Burr, unlike the Democrats, though, did not support the stimulus package that, y’know, was behind that expansion.

    NV-Sen: John Ensign may not even survive till the general election in 2012, if Jon Ralston’s tweet is to be believed. John Chachas, the little-known self-funder who barely made a ripple in the overcrowded 2010 GOP Senate field but who seems likely to do better in a one-on-one, is saying he may run against Ensign in two years.

    GA-Gov, GA-Sen: Mason-Dixon for Georgia Newspaper Partnership:

    Roy Barnes (D): 41

    Nathan Deal (R): 45

    Michael Thurmond (D): 33

    Johnny Isakson (R-inc): 52

    (MoE: ±4%)

    While this isn’t as nice as the InsiderAdvantage poll showing the race tied in the wake of disclosures about Nathan Deal’s financial disarray, Mason-Dixon does show a close race. This appears to be their first poll of the Barnes/Deal matchup, so there’s no sense of whether things have tightened.

    RI-Gov: Faced with the choice between a labor-friendly indie candidate and a Democrat whom they endorsed for state Treasurer four years ago, the AFL-CIO finally decided to punt, and endorse neither Lincoln Chafee nor Frank Caprio, remaining neutral. Recall that Chafee got SEIU and nurses’ union backing yesterday.

    AZ-05: There’s a new internal out in the rematch in Arizona’s 5th that founds its way across someone’s desk at the Hill. It’s from Democratic pollster Harstad Strategic Research and is apparently on behalf of the Harry Mitchell campaign, giving Mitchell a narrow lead over David Schweikert, 45-44 with 6 to the Libertarian candidate. That’s kind of pushing the limits on when it’s a good idea to release an internal, but with Schweikert having claimed an 8-point lead in his own internal and the DCCC’s ambiguous pull-out announcement about this district triggering some alarms, Mitchell seemed to need to show he’s still right in the thick of things.

    UPDATE: The Mitchell campaign writes in to clarify that this isn’t their internal poll (which the Hill had originally reported, then apparently deleted), but rather is on behalf of Project New West. Mitchell’s up 51-29 among independents, which helps him prevail even in a sample that’s slightly GOP-skewed (46% GOP, 30% Dem) You can see the polling memo here.

    LA-02: Anzalone-Liszt for Cedric Richmond (9/12-15, likely voters, no trendlines):

    Cedric Richmond (D): 45

    Joe Cao (R): 35

    (MoE: ±4.4%)

    Here’s the antidote to that bizarre Joe Cao internal from a few months back, that gave him a 25-point lead over Cedric Richmond. Even this Richmond internal, which has him up by 10, indicates that this isn’t going to be a total cakewalk for the Dems, though; with only 35%, Cao is still way overperforming the GOP baseline in this district that went for Barack Obama with 75% of the vote in 2008.  

    MN-01: Tim Walz picked up an endorsement from an unexpected corner yesterday. He got the backing of former Republican Senator David Durenberger, who support Walz’s stance on “uniting people” but also his support for health care reform. (Durenberger is also supporting IP candidate Tom Horner in the governor’s race.)

    PA-15: Muhlenberg College for the Allentown Morning Call (9-11/16, likely voters, 4/19-27 in parentheses):

    John Callahan (D): 38 (33)

    Charlie Dent (R-inc): 49 (45)

    Jake Towne (I): 3 (?)

    Undecided: 10 (22)

    (MoE: ±5%)

    John Callahan’s one of the best Dem challengers to a GOP incumbent this cycle, but he’s got a lot of work ahead of him to make up that last 12 points against Charlie Dent.

    NRSC: Here’s an interesting Roll Call dispatch from the front lines in the war between the NRSC and the Army of One known as Jim DeMint. DeMint is apparently dissatisfied with current NRSC allocations, and is moving money from his own personal stash to bolster Sharron Angle in Nevada ($156K) and Ken Buck in Colorado ($250K). The NRSC has reserved $3.2 million for Buck in TV time, more than any other candidate, so his concerns about Colorado may be misplaced.

    SSP TV:

    IL-Sen: The DSCC hits Mark Kirk for voting against unemployment extensions and minimum wage raises

    MO-Sen: Roy Blunt disappears down the meta rabbithole, with an attack ad about Robin Carnahan’s attack ads

    NV-Sen: Can we just have Harry Reid handle the advertising for all our candidates? He turns up the heat even higher on Sharron Angle, saying she wants to privatize the VA and “end our promise to our veterans”

    IA-Gov: Two separate ads for Chet Culver, one featuring endorsements from his immediate family members, the other making the case that “hey, Iowa’s not that bad off compared to all those other states”

    NM-Gov: Susana Martinez’s ad is a positive bio spot recounting her early prosecuting days

    SC-Gov: Vince Sheheen’s TV ad features a litany of reasons to be suspicious of Nikki Haley, recited by various average folks

    OH-16: The DCCC’s newest spot is a tax-time two-fer, hitting Jim Renacci on supporting the 23% “fair tax” and on his own pile of back taxes owed

    OR-05: Kurt Schrader’s newest is a testimonial from a thankful veteran

    TN-08: Roy Herron’s newest ad hits Stephen Fincher mostly on his various campaign finance discrepancies of misfilings and mysterious loans

    WI-07: Julie Lassa’s newest ad features criticism from a Sean Duffy underling from the DA’s office in Ashland County, focusing on his neglect of that stepping-stone job

    Rasmussen:

    AK-Sen: Scott McAdams (D) 25%, Joe Miller (R) 42%, Lisa Murkowski (W-I-inc) 27%

    CA-Sen: Barbara Boxer (D-inc) 47%, Carly Fiorina (R) 43%

    NY-Sen-B: Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc) 49%, Joe DioGuardi (R) 39%

    RI-Gov: Frank Caprio (D) 30%, John Robitaille (R) 23%, Lincoln Chafee (I) 33%

    Rasmussen (appearing as Fox/Pulse):

    CA-Gov: Jerry Brown (D) 45%, Meg Whitman (R) 45%

    CA-Sen: Barbara Boxer (D-inc) 47%, Carly Fiorina (R) 46%

    DE-Sen: Chris Coons (D) 54%, Christine O’Donnell (R) 39%

    NV-Sen: Harry Reid (D-inc) 45%, Sharron Angle (R) 46%

    OH-Gov: Ted Strickland (D-inc) 41%, John Kasich (R) 47%

    OH-Sen: Lee Fisher (D) 36%, Rob Portman (R) 49%

    PA-Gov: Dan Onorato (D) 39%, Tom Corbett (R) 49%

    PA-Sen: Joe Sestak (D) 40%, Pat Toomey (R) 48%