The Eastern Great Lakes region consists of Indiana, Michigan, and Ohio. This region’s growth has been stagnant over the last 50 years. In 1960, this region had 52 congressional districts: today, this region has only 42 congressional districts. By 2012, there might be as few as 39 congressional districts.
US House Representation Realignment
After the 1960 general election, the Democrats had approximately 60% of all house seats (and 64 of the 100 senate seats). I have inserted below the results of certain general elections.
1960: 20(D), 32(R)
1964: 28(D), 26(R)
1966: 17(D), 37(R)
1972: 18(D), 36(R)
1974: 29(D), 24(R)
1980: 28(D), 25(R)
1982: 27(D), 22(R)
1990: 30(D), 19(R)
1992: 27(D), 22(R)
1994: 19(D), 26(R)
1996: 22(D), 23(R)
2000: 21(D), 24(R)
2002: 15(D), 27(R)
2004: 14(D), 28(R)
2006: 18(D), 24(R)
2008: 23(D), 19(R)
50 years ago, this region was somewhat of a reliable Republican area (Nixon won Ohio and Indiana, while Kennedy won Michigan). The Kennedy/LBJ administrations made significant strides, and by 1964, the Democrats had a slim majority. The Republicans came back with vengence, overtaking 11 congressional districts in 1966. As late as 1972, the Republicans had a 2 to 1 advantage. Watergate assisted the Dems in overtaking 11 seats in the 1974 elections. I was very surprised when I realized that the Reagan revolution didn’t help the Republicans much, allowing the Democrats a sizable advantage as late as 1990. In the early 1990’s, this area jumped back to the Republicans, and by 2004, the Republicans once again had a 2 to 1 advantage (probably some of this advantaged relates to Gerrymandering). In the last 2 election cycles, the Democrats picked up 9 Congressional Seats.
US Senate Representation Realignment
1960: 5(D), 1(R)
1964: 6(D), 0(R)
1966: 5(D), 1(R)
1972: 3(D), 3(R)
1974: 4(D), 2(R)
1980: 4(D), 2(R)
1982: 4(D), 2(R)
1990: 4(D), 2(R)
1992: 4(D), 2(R)
1994: 2(D), 4(R)
1996: 2(D), 4(R)
2000: 3(D), 3(R)
2002: 3(D), 3(R)
2004: 3(D), 3(R)
2006: 4(D), 2(R)
2008: 4(D), 2(R)
Over the past 50 years, the Democrats had usually held a majority of this regions Senate seats. It wasn’t until 1994, during the Contract With (On) America did the Republicans gain a majority. The Democrats regained a majority with the 1998 victory for Bayh and the 2006 victory for Brown.
Conclusions
This region has historically been in play for both the Democrats and the Republicans. Due to fact that the Republican state parties have historically had a slight advantage, Gerrymandering is probably the norm rather than the exception, assisting the Republicans with their House representation (I’m personally referring to the 2002 Gerrymandering). The 2010 election year has an Indiana and an Ohio Senate seat in play, and if history is correct, the Democrats and Republicans will probably both win 1 seat each. In the House, the Democrats will probably have their hands full in defending a half of a dozen seats. This area will probably lose 3 more seats in 2012 (2 in Ohio, 1 in Michigan), and as a result the need for effective Gerrymandering is crucial. Indiana, Michigan, and Ohio is unique in the fact that the Democrats control the state Houses in each state while the Republicans control the state Senate. There are 2 tough Governor’s races in Ohio and Michigan, which will give us some insight on how this area might be represented in the next decade. I personally believe that the Democrats will still control this region after the 2010 election, but 2012? Who knows….