CA-AG: I Project Kamala Harris Wins

I put this in the comments of the open thread earlier today, but I’m confident in my numbers to make a proclamation.

As it stands right now, Kamala Harris is up by .2%, or 14,000 votes according to the CA SOS website, which was updated at 8 am this morning.

There are still around 900,000 ballots left uncounted.

Here are the top counties, their outstanding votes, and by how large a margin each county voted for a candidate.

Los Angeles: 208,513 (Harris +13.5%)

San Diego: 71,970 (Cooley +13.8%)

Orange: 54,316 (Cooley +29.2%)

San Joaquin: 39,715 (Cooley +7.6%)

Contra Costa: 38,413 (Harris +13.3%)

San Bernardino: 36,000 (Cooley +5%)

Sonoma: 35,500 (Harris +24.2%)

Riverside: 29,700 (Cooley +19%)

Monterey: 29,470 (Harris +15.2%)

Santa Cruz: 27,905 (Harris +34.1%!)

Marin: 27,050 (Harris +31.2%)

San Mateo: 26,812 (Harris +21.6%)

Alameda: 24,500 (Harris +40.7%!!)

Sacramento: 21,621 (Cooley +2.6%)

San Francisco: 21,376 (Harris +50.4%!!!!!!)

Using some mind numbing number crunching, I project that Kamala Harris takes it home with a net 64,584 from all of the above counties combined.

All of those counties account for around 694,000 of the 898,458 unprocessed votes, or 77% of the uncounted votes.

This means that for cooley to overtake that 64,584 deficit from the remaining uncounted counties, he would have to, on average, win them by around a 32% margin.

While not impossible, I find it highly unlikely for this to occur.  The biggest margin Cooley received from any county that I can see is from Kern, when he got a 36.5% margin.  He is going to have to do better than that with outstanding counties like santa Clara that went for Harris by 18.2%, and has 8,000 more outstanding ballots than Kern.

Unless the last of these ballots go overwhelmingly for Cooley, I think Cooley is a goner, and California will have its first Bi-Racial AG.

Congrats Kamala.  

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California Race Chart 2010 (Part 1 of 3: Statewide Races)

Cross-posted at Daily Kos, Calitics, and Democracy for California.

Here I will cover the eight constitutional offices, three State Supreme Court justice confirmations, and nine ballot measures. In the second diary, I will cover the U.S. Senate race and the House races, and in the third the state legislature. I will also combine my regular registration updates within the diaries.

Speaking of registration updates, as you will see in the layout of the statewide registration numbers, Democrats are more pumped up here, adding almost half a million voters to their rolls since 2008. The Republicans in comparison added just 13,000 in the same amount of time. So if you are looking for a lethargic Democratic base, look elsewhere because you won’t find it here!

More info can be found at the 2010 Race Tracker.

Here is the most recent registration data:…

Here is the list of candidates that will appear on the ballot:…

Statewide Layout

Democrats: 7,531,986 (44.32%)

Republicans: 5,257,669 (30.94%)

Decline to State: 3,427,395 (20.17%)

Others: 776,025 (4.56%)

Key: I will list the incumbent first, in boldface (in the case of open seats, the incumbent party first without boldface), and all minor parties after the two major parties.

D: Democratic

R: Republican

L: Libertarian

G: Green

AI: American Independent

PF: Peace and Freedom

NP: Nonpartisan

SW: Socialist Workers

Race Ratings

Toss-up: Margin by less than 5%

Lean: Margin by 5-10%

Likely: Margin by 10-15%

Strong: Margin by 15-20%

Solid: Margin by more than 20%

Governor: Ex-eBay CEO Meg Whitman (R) vs. Attorney General Jerry Brown (D), Laura Wells (G), Dale Ogden (L), Chelene Nightingale (AI), Carlos Alvarez (PF), and Lea Sherman (SW-W/I)

Profile: Forgive me for being a broken record as I have been in past comments, but again, I see no way Whitman can win. Running as an outsider when the current governor, who also ran as an outsider, is leaving office with 20% approval ratings, is a surefire losing strategy. And pissing voters off by running ads nonstop and spending nine-figure sums of money while they’re forced to cut back is not going to help at all. Brown is leading by example, running on a shoestring budget and calling for everyone to sacrifice, meaning no sacred cows. Polls may not yet show it, but in my opinion I think Whitman is finished. In fact, I’ll be very surprised if she even manages to make it a low-teen loss.

Outlook: Likely to Strong Brown (D pickup)

Lieutenant Governor: Interim Lt. Gov. Abel Maldonado (R) vs. S.F. Mayor Gavin Newsom (D), Jimi Castillo (G), Pamela Brown (L), Jim King (AI), and C.T. Weber (PF)

Profile: Here we have quasi-incumbent Abel Maldonado, appointed after John Garamendi went to Congress, running to be elected in his own right against Newsom. While Maldonado is moderate for a Republican (though that is not saying much), being closely associated with Arnold is going to be a huge liability, which I do not think he will overcome.

Outlook: Lean Newsom (D pickup)

Attorney General: S.F. DA Kamala Harris (D) vs. L.A. DA Steve Cooley (R), Peter Allen (G), Timothy Hannan (L), Dianne Beall Templin (AI), and Robert J. Evans (PF)

Profile: This is the only statewide race in California I am worried about, and where my theory (that California has just become too Democratic for even a moderate Republican to win barring unusual circumstances) will be put to the test. Cooley is not that bad for a Republican, having had the audacity to stand against popular opinion of issues such as three strikes and Jessica’s Law, though he is also against dispensaries for medical marijuana. Harris is a rising star in Democratic circles, and is a more formidable opponent than any of Cooley’s challengers in the past. The wild card is the big enchilada of L.A. County, where Harris’ name ID is low and she’d need to win by 18-20% to win statewide. I am of course pulling for Harris because I want our bench to stay nice and full for the inevitable retirements of DiFi probably in 2012, Boxer probably in 2016, and for the open governorship in 2014 or 2018; and also because she has courageously stood up to Prop 8, while Cooley pledges to defend it in court.

Outlook: Toss-Up

Secretary of State: SoS Debra Bowen (D) vs. businessman Damon Dunn (R), Ann Menasche (G), Christina Tobin (L), Merton D. Short (AI), and Marylou Cabral (PF)

Profile: Bowen is a lock for reelection.

Outlook: Solid Bowen

Treasurer: Treasurer Bill Lockyer (D) vs. State Senator Mimi Walters (R), Kit Crittenden (G), Edward Teyssier (L), Robert Lauten (AI), and Debra Reiger (PF)

Profile: Lockyer is a lock for reelection.

Outlook: Solid Lockyer

Controller: Controller John Chiang (D) vs. State Senator Tony Strickland (R), Ross Frankel (G), Andy Favor (L), Lawrence Beliz (AI), and Karen Martinez (PF)

Profile: A rematch from 2006, only with Democrats more pumped up, Chiang will win by a wider margin this time around.

Outlook: Strong to Solid Chiang

Insurance Commissioner: State Assemblyman Mike Villines (R) vs. State Assemblyman Dave Jones (D), William Balderston (G), Richard Bronstein (L), Clay Pedersen (AI), and Dina Padilla (PF)

Profile: In California, when a non-damaged Democrat is up against a generic Republican, the Democrat wins. Take it to the bank.

Outlook: Likely to Strong Jones (D pickup)

Superintendent of Public Instruction: Retired Superintendent Larry Aceves (NP) vs. State Assemblyman Tom Torlakson (NP)

Profile: Torlakson voted against Race to the Top and believes parents, teachers, students, and communities alike all need to come together to improve our schools, while Aceves believes that the problem with public schools is the teachers and hedge funds and billionaires should have more control over K-12 education. This will be a close one.

Outlook: Toss-Up

State Supreme Court confirmation – Tani Cantil-Sakauye: Voters are being asked whether to confirm Tani Cantil-Sakauye, Arnold’s pick to replace Chief Justice Ron George. She is seen as uncontroversial, but likely to share Arnold’s views on corporate power.

Outlook: Lean Confirm

State Supreme Court retention – Ming Chin: Chin was in the minority that voted to uphold the state’s ban on marriage equality in 2008, and is one of the most right-wing justices on the state Supreme Court. I want to see him go, but it doesn’t look likely.

Outlook: Likely Retention

State Supreme Court retention – Carlos Moreno: Moreno was the only justice who courageously voted to overturn Prop 8 at the State Supreme Court last year, and has been a reliable vote for equality and so should be voted to be retained.

Outlook: Likely Retention

Ballot Measures: Nine measures will be on the California ballot this fall. Information can be found here:… Field has released polls on 19, 23, and 25.…

Prop. 19 (Marijuana): If passed, this proposition would legalize the possession and growing of marijuana for personal use of adults 21 years and older, and allow state and local governments to regulate and tax related commercial activities. This proposition winning may make Washington reexamine its own policy towards marijuana, since what happens in California often makes it way to the other side of the country. Polls have shown Yes leading by single digits, so I’ll call 19 a passing proposition.

My recommendation: YES!

10/21/2010 Outlook: Lean Pass

Prop. 20 (Redistricting Congressional Districts): This proposition would amend the state Constitution be amended to have the Citizens Redistricting Commission (prop 11 from 2008) redistrict for the U.S. House of Representatives seats. This initiative calls for each district being composed of people of the same income level and people with the same work opportunities, which to me feels like a backdoor to the old bygone Jim Crow ways. And passing this prop while giving free passes to Republican-controlled legislatures in Texas and Florida to gerrymander the hell out of those states is likely to put California at a disadvantage when competing for federal dollars. In addition, there is no way this commission can be held accountable.

My recommendation: NO!

10/21/2010 Outlook: Toss-up/Lean Fail

Prop. 21 (Vehicle License Surcharge): Establishes an $18 annual vehicle license surcharge to provide funds for maintaining the state parks and wildlife programs, and grants surcharged vehicles free admission to the state parks. Our cash-starved state parks could use the extra funds. In addition, the governor can’t take funds from this coffer when other coffers are low. The tough economy may dampen the chances of this prop passing, though.

My recommendation: YES!

10/21/2010 Outlook: Toss-Up

Prop. 22 (Local Government Funds): Prohibits the state from taking funds used for local government services. It is well-intentioned but flawed. The cities and counties would get an immediate payment of over $1 billion, forcing further cuts to vital public services.

My recommendation: NO!

10/21/2010 Outlook: Toss-Up/Lean Fail

Prop. 23 (Suspension of AB 32): Backed by Texas oil interests, this prop would suspend AB 32 until unemployment dropped to an unrealistic 5.5% for a whole year and hurt the state’s fledgling green jobs industry, doing the exact opposite of what its backers claim: it would actually kill more jobs than create more jobs. (Here in “business-friendly” Texas, the economic situation is also pretty bad, with unemployment here at its highest level since the late ’80s [and me being unable to find a job to save my life] and an $18 billion deficit for the 2011 budget session, which will make 2003 look like the good old days.) Polls have shown a low double-digit lead for the No side.

My recommendation: NO! NO! NO!

10/21/2010 Outlook: Likely Fail

Prop. 24 (Corporate Loopholes): A long-overdue measure that would close corporate tax loopholes, reducing the budget deficit by $2 billion.

My recommendation: YES!

10/21/2010 Outlook: Toss-Up

Prop. 25 (Majority Vote on Budget): Another very long-overdue measure that eliminates the ridiculous 2/3rds rule to pass a budget in the state legislature. This prop is passing by double-digits in the polls.

My recommendation: YES! YES! YES!

10/21/2010 Outlook: Likely Pass

Prop. 26 (Two-Thirds Vote on Fees): Would require two-thirds vote approval for the imposition of certain state and local fees, including those on businesses that adversely impact the local community and environment. The last thing we need is higher vote thresholds.

My recommendation: NO! NO! NO!

10/21/2010 Outlook: Toss-Up

Prop. 27 (Redistricting Commission): This proposition eliminates the Citizens Redistricting Commission from Prop 11, which barely passed, suggesting some voters have some doubts about its effectiveness. This commission also gives Republicans much more power than their current share of the population.

My recommendation: YES!

10/21/2010 Outlook: Toss-Up

The State of Statewide Officeholders: 2010 Elections

Today’s downballot statewide officeholder is tomorrow’s Senator or Governor. Though these offices tend to get lost in the shuffle of sexier races, they’re important for party-building. So I’ve taken a look at what statewide races are on the ballot to see where each party stands.

A very big chart in png format (I couldn’t find an easy way to convert a spreadsheet with background colors to html) follows. Sorry, smaller monitored folks.

Note: Incumbents with primaries on 9/14 include DE-Treasurer, RI-Lt. Governor, RI-Secretary of State, and WI-Treasurer.

As the key says, dark red is for offices with Republican incumbents, light red is for open Republican seats, dark blue for Democratic incumbents, and light blue for open Democratic seats. I’ve also noted which seats have incumbents that were appointed to their position, and which seats are unopposed by the other party. And for the “Other” category, I’ve specified what the other officeholder’s title is.

Interestingly, despite the surfeit of Republican candidates, seven statewide posts were left unchallenged, only one less than the number of seats the Democrats didn’t field candidates for.

Trouble spots for the Democrats include the number of open spots in Georgia and Oklahoma. Not a lot of vulnerable open Republican seats, though — FL-Attorney General, VT-Lt. Governor, and OH-Auditor seem to be the best chances. I’m not nearly familiar enough with the incumbents to make any judgments there, though.

AL Post Primary Rundown

Last night, the voters in Alabama voted on nominees for each party to contest seats up for election in November. Here is a rundown of how things went in the Yellowhammer State last night:

AL-GOV: The GOP Primary will go to a runoff between former State Senator Bradley Byrne and either State Representative Robert Bentley or Real Estate Developer Tim James. Personally, I’m surprised Roy Moore, who was polling second in polls leading up to this race, placed 4th. In the Democratic Primary, Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks surprised many by crushing Congressman Artur Davis by a nearly 2-1 margin.

AL-LT GOV: State Treasurer Kay Ivey, who abandoned a hopeless Gubernatorial bid earlier this year, unsurprisingly romped over State Senator Hank Erwin and Teacher Gene Ponder. Ivey will face Incumbent Jim Fosom Jr. in November.

AL-AG: One of the biggest surprises of the evening occurred here with Attorney Luther Strange walloping Incumbent Republican AG Troy King by 20 points, a race that was under the radar for most political observers. In another surprise, Attorney James Anderson and former State Democratic Party Chairman Giles Perkins will go to a runoff. Perkins finished nearly 19 points below Anderson in yesterday’s vote tallies.

AL-State Treasurer: In another massive upset, former State Finance Department Official Young Boozer crushed former State Treasurer, former PSC Commissioner, and son of former Governor George Wallace, George Wallace Jr. by about 30 points(Thank God!!!). Unsurprisingly, in the Democratic Primary, former State Conservation Commissioner Charles Grimsley defeated Attorney Jeremy Sherer by about 20 points in the final tallies.

AL-AG Commissioner: In the GOP Primary, Former State Conservation Commissioner John McMillan and Walker County Economic Development Chair Dorman Grace are headed to a Runoff. The winner faces an uphill fight against Democratic Deputy Agriculture Commissioner Glen Zorn.

AL-SEN: No surprises in either race, Republican Senator Richard Shelby will face Democratic Attorney William Barnes in November.

AL-01: No surprise, Republican Congressman Jo Bonner horse-whipped Real Estate Developer Peter Gounares and will do so again to Constitution Party Artificial Reef Contractor David Walter in November.

AL-02: The Republicans will go to a Runoff between Montgomery City Councilwoman Martha Roby and Businessman Rick Barber. Whoever wins faces Incumbent Democrat Bobby Bright in November.

AL-05: In the GOP Primary, Madison County Commissioner Morris Brooks surprised everybody by trouncing turncoat Congressman Parker Griffith 51-33. In another surprise, former Congressional Aide Steve Raby beat back a challenge from former State Board of Education Member and Grandson of former Senator John Sparkman, Taze Shepard 61-22.

AL-06: Incumbent Republican Congressman Spencer Bachus God-smacked Pastor Stan Cooke 77-23.

AL-07: Jefferson County Commissioner Sheila Smoot and Attorney Terri Sewell surprised everyone by outpacing State Representative and son of former Congressman Earl Hilliard, Earl Hilliard Jr. to make the Democratic Runoff. The GOP has a Runoff of their own between Some-Dude Don Chamberlain and Mortgage Broker Chris Salter.

Please share your opinions in the comments.

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OH-16: Senator John Boccieri supports legislature’s movements on Attorney General

In a post last week, OH-16: State Senator John Boccieri: AG Dann should resign immediately State Senator John Boccieri expressed his “outrage” over the the behavior of Attorney General Marc Dann. On May 6, 2008, Senator Boccieri stated:

“I am outraged that the Attorney General of the state of Ohio has neglected the duty and honor of public service,” Senator Boccieri said. “The cronyism and lack of attentiveness to protocol and detail in Attorney General Dann’s hiring practices has led us to this tragic moment in Ohio’s history. I feel for his wife Alyssa and his children, who must endure the embarrassment he has caused to them, and the people of the state of Ohio.

“We support the ongoing investigation to determine whether any criminal lines have been crossed. However, after combing through the sordid details of the investigation transcripts, it is clear that ethical and moral lines have been disregarded. For this reason, I call upon Marc Dann to resign immediately.”

I was proud of Senator Boccieri for being thorough, reading the transcripts, and getting the facts straight before jumping to any conclusions. After he was sure of the facts, he made his initial call for Dann to resign immediately. Over the course of the week, Dann has tried every play in the book to avoid resignation, even while knowing the “dirt” would continue to pile up on the entire office and staff. Boccieri was chided for being slow to jump on the “Dann Bandwagon”, but was simply applying a reasonable fact checking methodology.

Today, May 13, 2008, just one week later, State Senator John Boccieri, candidate in Ohio’s 16th Congressional District, issued the following statement from his Senate office today:

“I fully support the actions taken by both the Ohio House and Senate today. As I have said before, Marc Dann cannot continue as Attorney General of the State of Ohio. It was my hope last week that he would recognize that reality, resign the office, and bring this shameful ordeal to an end. Because that has not yet happened, members of the Ohio House today brought articles of impeachment against Marc Dann, an action with which I agree completely.

“Also today, a motion was introduced to initiate an Inspector General’s investigation of the Attorney General’s office. I support that move also, and I would urge the Inspector General’s office to be swift and judicious in their work. A lengthy investigation will benefit no one – least of all the citizens of this state.

“As I have previously stated, I am outraged and disappointed by Marc Dann’s behavior. I am dismayed that he has refused thus far to resign his office and accept the findings of an Inspector General’s investigation. Marc Dann has again chosen to do the wrong thing and is attempting to negotiate the details of his departure. Marc Dann should be given absolutely no latitude to negotiate a more favorable exit from office on the heels of his admitted wrongdoing.

“It is my sincere hope that either through resignation or impeachment, this sordid episode will be concluded quickly, allowing us to move forward with the important business of the state. There is too much work to be done in Ohio for us to be distracted by such scandals. I look forward to working with my colleagues in the legislature and our statewide elected officials as we move forward with the people’s business.”

At every turn, State Senator John Boccieri has shown the deliberate pragmatism of true leadership through thorough examination of the available facts and his strong desire to do the bidding of his constituency even in the face of adversity. State Senator John Boccieri shows the thoughtful leadership skills the electorate of Ohio’s 16th Congressional District deserve to have represent them in the House of Representatives in Washington, D.C. Our District is fortunate to have State Senator Major John Boccieri offer his service at the next higher level of representation.  

OH-16: State Senator John Boccieri: AG Dann should resign immediately

Cross-posted from OH-16: John Boccieri for U.S. Congress

This whole Attorney General Marc Dann situation gets harder and harder to stomach with each passing day. I’m glad this statement hit my desk before I read it somewhere else.

State Senator John Boccieri: Attorney General Marc Dann should resign Immediately

Today State Senator John Boccieri, Democratic candidate in Ohio’s 16th Congressional District, called for Attorney General Marc Dann to resign from office:

“I am outraged that the Attorney General of the state of Ohio has neglected the duty and honor of public service,” Senator Boccieri said. “The cronyism and lack of attentiveness to protocol and detail in Attorney General Dann’s hiring practices has led us to this tragic moment in Ohio’s history. I feel for his wife Alyssa and his children, who must endure the embarrassment he has caused to them, and the people of the state of Ohio.

“We support the ongoing investigation to determine whether any criminal lines have been crossed. However, after combing through the sordid details of the investigation transcripts, it is clear that ethical and moral lines have been disregarded. For this reason, I call upon Marc Dann to resign immediately.”

Ohio has been subjected to statement after statement from Dann defending his staff and himself. As a “reasonable person”, and that will matter. I have stand with Senator John Boccieri on this whole case…It is what it is! One doesn’t comb transcripts and walk away with some false sense of reality. Personally, I think Ohio’s 16th Congressional District Democratic Candidate State Senator Major John Boccieri has done the smart thing…he held back and read the facts before coming to a conclusion and he has distanced himself from the epicenter of the after-shocks yet to come.

UT-Sen Rumors Of The Orrin Hatch Campaign For Attorney General

There have been persistent rumors for weeks now that Sen. Orrin Hatch is aggressively seeking to be nominated by President Bush to replace embattled Attorney General Alberto Gonzales. The Nation is the most recent publication to report on the possibility that Hatch could be appointed. If Hatch is named that Republican Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman would appoint an interim senator.


It is no longer a secret that Hatch is moving aggressively to position himself as the replacement for Attorney General Alberto Gonzales. With the scandal involving Gonzales’ firing of U.S. Attorneys deepening on a daily basis, there is no longer much question that President Bush is going to need someone new to take charge of the Department of Justice. And Hatch has made little secret of the fact that he thinks he is the man for the job.


For those who fear that the disembodied head of Orrin Hatch suspended in a jar will be serving in the U.S. Senate well into the next century, there is good news: Hatch could be up for Attorney General. Utah’s senior senator denies it, but a fellow senator claims Hatch is openly campaigning for the job vacancy after the inevitable departure of embattled AG Alberto Gonzales.


A rumor floating in Washington D.C. has Utah Senator Orrin Hatch openly campaigning for the nomination to be Attorney General’s job, should Alberto Gonzales step down.

Hatch says the rumors are pure speculation, and that he would never campaign for the job because it would make doing his current job as Senator more difficult.

That speculation came to light on Sunday’s “Meet the Press” program when Vermont Senator Patrick Leahy said Hatch was indeed campaigning for the position – a charge Hatch denies.…

Prediciting possible gonzales replacement for when he retires.

I was thinking about who the hell the Bush administration would bring in for AG once “The Great Gonzales” retires and I had a horrifying thought.  It’s a wonderfully terrible idea that could either save or destroy them.  Here goes . . .  Attorney General George “Hakuna Macaca” Allen.  The guys a lawyer and a loyal “Bushie” in need of a job.  If he serves as AG for the next two years, he’d have a better chance of claiming a senate seat should warner retire.  The question is, what would this do for/to the Whitehouse?  On the one hand allen will probably attract more scandals than a lighting rod attracts lightning.  On the other hand, IT’S GEORGE ALLEN AS ATTORNEY GENERAL!!!!!!!!!!!  Some may say that while he’s a lawyer, he’s not the most qualified.  Exactly, he’s a bushie.  That’s why I’m worried about him getting the job.  What effect if any would this have, should it come to pass?