Tag: Judy Nerat

• CO-Sen: The nomination process in Colorado has worked its way up to the county-level assemblies now, and former state House speaker Andrew Romanoff still has an edge over appointed incumbent Michael Bennet in the race for Democratic Senate primary delegates. Romanoff has a 57-42 edge over Bennet, bolstered by strong numbers in the urban Denver and El Paso Counties.

• CT-Sen: This may not turn out to be much, but it’s another drip-drip hurting Linda McMahon’s credibility. It’s been revealed that in 1989, she gave advance warning to a doctor, George Zahorian, of a pending federal investigation; Zahorian was later convicted of selling steroids to WWF wrestlers. (Only Zahorian was convicted; the government’s case against the WWF fell apart.)

• IN-Sen: Take this with as much salt as you’d like, as it’s a leak of an Indiana GOP Senate primary poll to a right-wing blog and the leak doesn’t even say which candidate’s camp it came from, let alone who the pollster is. Nevertheless, it shows a tight race between Dan Coats and John Hostettler: Coats leads 29-26, with Marlin Stutzman not to be counted out either at 18.

• MA-Sen: Here’s more evidence that Scott Brown is intent on trying to have a long career as a moderate New England Senator, rather than flaming out in half a term of teabagging glory. He said thanks but not thanks to appearing with Sarah Palin at a teabagger rally on Boston Common on Wednesday.

• OH-Sen: Another big quarter for Rob Portman, who’s started to fall behind in recent polling against his Democratic opposition but who will have a huge cash advantage over whoever his opponent is. He pulled in $2.3 million last quarter, bringing his CoH total to a ridiculous $7.6 million.

• WA-Sen: Here’s what may be a tea leaf that Dino Rossi isn’t likely to run for Senate this year: state Sen. Don Benton, who’s already in the race for the GOP and is a friend of Rossi, says “I don’t believe Dino would allow me to sacrifice my family time and my business if he was going to run for the U.S. Senate,” and “If he had serious plans, I really believe he would have told me that.” Of course, this may also be a shot across Rossi’s bow, especially since Benton also points out that his fundraising ($130K last quarter) has suffered as everyone watches Rossi instead.

• PA-Sen, PA-Gov (pdf): I don’t know why so many small schools in the Northeast feel the need to have their very own polling operation, but now Muhlenberg College is getting in on the act too. Their apparently first look at the Senate race uses a likely voter model, so as you might expect, it gives a bit of a lead to Pat Toomey. Toomey leads Arlen Specter 47-40 and leads Joe Sestak 33-22 (with leaners). There’s a whole lotta undecideds in the gubernatorial race, but Tom Corbett has a clear advantage among those who’ve decided: he leads Dan Onorato 42-18, Jack Wagner 44-16, and Joe Hoffel 45-11.

• GA-Gov: Ethics questions are continuing to follow around ex-Rep. Nathan Deal even though he’s left the House now, in order to pursue his gubernatorial bid. Turns out he spent $20K from his state campaign account to pay for legal fees related to the House Ethics inquiry into his car inspection business. The state’s ethics board says it’s unclear whether or not it’s a violation, as it’s a situation they’ve never dealt with before.

• NY-Gov: With his teabag-flavored gubernatorial campaign only a few weeks old, Carl Paladino’s campaign manager is already in damage control mode, acknowledging today that, yes, his boss send out some e-mails to political and business contacts that were “off-color” and “politically incorrect.” If, by politically incorrect, you mean including an African tribal dance photo entitled “Obama Inauguration Rehearsal,” and hardcore bestiality photos.

• PA-Gov: Two House members endorsed in the Democratic governor’s primary, and given their geographical connections, neither one should be a surprise. Pittsburgh-area Rep. Mike Doyle endorsed Allegheny Co. Exec Dan Onorato, while PA-01’sBob Brady (who just happens to be chair of the Philadelphia City Democrats in his spare time) backs state Sen. Anthony Williams. Getting the Philly machine officially behind Williams, currently lagging his opponents, may help him gain a little ground on his competition.

• SC-Gov: AG Henry McMaster had a strong fundraising quarter in the race to replace Mark Sanford, pulling in $464K and sitting on $1.4 million CoH. He’s almost caught up with Rep. Gresham Barrett, who was last year’s fundraising leader; Barrett raised $427K and holds $1.5 million CoH.

• HI-01: Looks like it’s turning into the DCCC vs. everybody else in the 1st. The AFL-CIO and Longshoremen, undeterred by the D-Trip’s preferences, are both weighing into the race with mailers on behalf of Colleen Hanabusa, pointing out Ed Case’s anti-labor record.

• MI-01: More local politicians are starting to jump into the race in the 1st, with last Friday’s sudden departure of Bart Stupak. Democratic State Rep. Joel Sheltrown said he’ll get in the race (joining Connie Saltonstall, who had been challenging Stupak in the primary). One problem for Sheltrown, though, is that he’s a “troll” (i.e. from under the bridge, instead of from the Upper Peninsula, where the district’s center of gravity is). One other sorta-big-name possible contender who doesn’t quite live in the district, ex-Rep. Jim Barcia (who’s got gerrymandered out of MI-05 in 2002, dropped down to the state Senate, which he’s now term-limited out of), confirmed he wouldn’t run. Roll Call also has the names of a few other potential Dems that we haven’t mentioned yet, including state Reps. Jeff Mayes, Judy Nerat, and Steve Lindberg, and state Agriculture Director Don Koivisto. Other possible GOPers include state Sen. Jason Allen, former state Rep. Tom Casperson (who lost by a wide margin to Stupak in 2008), and former state Rep. Scott Shackleton.

• NY-24: Republican repeat challenger Richard Hanna raised $350K in the first quarter for the race against Rep. Mike Arcuri; that’s on top of the $600K he loaned himself.

• PA-04: The growing scandal surrounding the Orie family (centered on state Sen. Jane Orie, who allegedly had staff in her office working on campaign work on the state’s dime) spilled over into the 4th. Mary Beth Buchanan’s campaign manager, Kurt Acker, resigned on Friday after it came out that he was one of those Orie staffers participating in the violations.

• TN-08: Looks like we’ve got a good case of the dueling rich guys in the GOP primary in the 8th: physician Ron Kirkland is reporting $607K raised last quarter. Throw in the $250K he lent himself, and he’s already drawn almost even with Stephen Fincher, who’s already gotten the NRCC’s imprimatur based on his own fundraising.

• VA-05: Freshman Rep. Tom Perriello also put up excellent fundraising numbers this quarter, and that seems to have more to do with getting the base excited about him (with his tough vote in favor of HCR) rather than dipping into his own wallet. Perriello raised $600K in the first quarter, leaving him with $1.4 million CoH for what’s sure to be a bruising general election campaign.

• WV-01: There have been some indications that Rep. Alan Mollohan was on the outs with the West Virginia Democratic establishment (starting top-down with Gov. Bob Manchin), but here’s an interesting clue that suggests otherwise: Mollohan’s primary opponent, state Sen. Mike Oliverio, complained at a candidate forum that he’d requested registered voter files from the state committee and hadn’t received them, and he wondered if Mollohan’s influence had anything to do with that.

• Polltopia: Mark Blumenthal has some added nuance on the issue of the House generic ballot, which pundits have been pointing to lately as evidence of possible huge Republican gains in the House in November. The Gallup generic ballot poll does have some predictive value… but that’s only the final Gallup poll before the election, making it a not-terribly-reliable measure at this point in time.

MSNBC’s First Read Reported this morning that Michigan Democratic Congressman Bart Stupak is considering not running for re-election in 2010.

With just a few days to go before the end of this recess, House Democrats are cautiously optimistic that they could get through it without a single retirement announcement. That said, there is still a concern that some important incumbents in districts that they are uniquely suited could call it quits. At the top of the concern list this week: Michigan Democrat Bart Stupak. The Democrat best known this year as the Democrat who delivered the winning margin of votes for the president’s health-care reform bill is said to be simply exhausted. The criticism he received — first from the left, and then from the right — has worn him and his family out. And if he had to make the decision now, he’d probably NOT run. As of this writing, a bunch of senior Democrats (many of the same ones who twisted his arm on the health care vote) are trying to talk him into running. The filing deadline in Michigan is still a month away, but veterans of that state’s politics are skeptical anyone other than Stupak can hold that district in this political climate.

First, let me start by saying I called Stupak’s office today, but got no answer; I plan to keep calling until I can speak to a real person.  I intend to tell Stupak (well, his staffers) that as a constituent, I would hope that he would not give into the national pressures that are being put on him, and to stand strong and run for re-election.  I plan to let him know that I am a liberal, who supports Single Payer, and that I am not angry with him over the recent healthcare scuffle.  I would vote for Bart Stupak (if I could) one hundred more times, and on a personal, not political level, I would hate to see him retire.

If these rumors are true (let’s hope they aren’t), is First Read correct in saying that Stupak is the only Democrat who can hold the 1st District? No. As astute as Mark Murray is, he does not know the Upper Peninsula of Michigan like I do. It’s true that Bart Stupak is/was extremely popular, but it’s not an Ike Skelton-like situation, where the politician’s personal popularity is the only thing that keeps him or her from being defeated.  In fact, the first district has been consistently more Democratic than the state as a whole in almost every election other than in Presidential elections.  The district easily supported Senators Levin and Stabenow, Governor Granholm, and various other Statewide elected officials.  It also voted for Obama in 2008, albeit by a less-than overwhelming margin.  By my count, there are roughly 6 Democrats who represent a significant portion of the 1st District in the State House of Representatives, compared to only 2 Republicans (only one actually lives in the district).  It appears also that the one and only State Senator who lives in the 1st District is a Democrat (although it does overlap two Republican districts). So, in short, as I’ve said before, the 1st District is not lost without Stupak running, but it will be a tough fight.  

I’ll now go into some potential candidates on both sides

Mike Prusi (D-Ishpeming) – Mike Prusi is my State Senator.  I believe that he could easily win the 1st District seat if he ran.  He is perhaps the most popular politician in the Upper Peninsula, having been re-elected with over 70% of the vote in 2006.  Whether or not he would run is another story. Certainly there would be pressure from national leaders, but a relative of his who I’m friendly with has told me that he wishes to retire from politics in 2010 as he is termed out of the legislature (this was pre-Stupak retirement rumors; retiring would make sense for Prusi otherwise, he really can’t move up any farther).  Politically, despite his popularity with Conservative Democrats and many Republicans, Prusi would be a step up from Stupak. He voted against banning partial birth abortion in all cases (can you imagine Stupak doing that?) and in favor of criminalizing discrimination based on sexual orientation.  And the Unions LOVE Prusi.  He is a former Iron miner and would get tremendous Union Support if he ran.  He is also from Marquette County, the districts largest County, and received 78% of the vote here in 2006.  A Marquette County candidate could really get the vote out here in what is also the district’s most Democratic County.  If Stupak does retire, I think in the end Prusi would win. At 60, however, the hard part would be convincing him to run.

Steve Lindberg (D-Marquette) – Steve Lindberg (AKA Stevie L) is my State Rep. as well as my favorite local politician.  He represents a fairly large district in the central Upper Peninsula that includes the extremely important Marquette County. Again, it would be beneficial to have a candidate from Marquette County, and Lindberg is very popular here. On the other hand, Lindberg will be 66 on election day, and therefore may not be inclined to start a congressional career so late in life. Lindberg would be a tremendous step up over Stupak politically. He hails from the very liberal City of Marquette and is pro-choice, pro-stem cell research, pro-Medical Marijuana, and very pro-environment.  Again, like Prusi, Lindberg would get tremendous Union support as well.  One the other hand, being so liberal may hurt him in the rest of the district, which is much more Conservative than Marquette County.  Lindberg is also not the best Public Speaker, which could hurt him.  I like Lindberg, but he would not be our best candidate for holding the 1st District.

Mike Lahti (D-Hancock) – Mike Lahti is another State Representative from the Upper Peninsula.  Unlike the previous two, Lahti is from the more conservative Western U.P. (Houghton County, to be specific).  Like his district, Lahti is very conservative.  As a result of his conservatism, however, Lahti is very popular in the 110th District.  This area is normally a swing area, having gone very narrowly for Obama but comfortably for Bush twice.  If Lahti ran, he would certainly run the table in his district, and probably perform well in Marquette County; His conservativism may also resonate well in the Lower Peninsula, which is politically similar to his district. As a liberal and a progressive, however, I really don’t want to see someone who is more conservative than Stupak replace him. I would support Lahti in the general election, but only reluctantly.  One indication that Lahti may not run, however, is that he has already filed to replace Mike Prusi in the 38th Senate District (Prusi is term limited, remember). Lahti is not opposed by any Democrat as of yet, and would likely move easily up to the Senate, whereas a Congressional Campaign would be more of an up-hill battle.  If he did run, however, I suspect Lahti could potentially hold Stupak’s seat for the Democrats (or in his case, ConservaDems).

Judy Nerat (D-Wallace) – Judy Nerat is Bart Stupak’s State Represenative.  She is also a close Stupak ally, and her 2008 win had a lot to do with Congressman Stupak’s strong support of her campaign.  The 108th District is very heavily Catholic, and like Stupak, Nerat’s political views have a lot to do with her Catholicism; She is quite Conservative, and again, like Stupak, she is Pro-Life.  Stupak may like to see her move up to Congress, but she’s only in her first term in the State House, and has little other political experience. She was also recently diagnosed with multiple myeloma, a type of cancer.  For these reasons I think a Nerat run for Congress is not very likely in the case of an open seat.  

There are many other Democrats who may decide to run here, should the above decline.  Former Senator Don Koivisto (D-Gogebic) who served from 1990-2002 and who is now the Director of the Michigan Department of Agriculture. Koivisto might be a candidate worth looking at, and he is only 60.  Other candidates include former State Rep. and current State House Clerk Rich Brown (D-Bessemer), State Rep. Gary McDowell (D-Rudyard), though McDowell is already running for the State Senate in the 37th District, Former Rep. Matthew Gillard (D-Alpena), Current Rep. Andy Neumann (D-Alpena), former Rep. Steven Adamini (D-Marquette), though Adamini has had some Drunk-driving arrests that wouldn’t play well, and Marquette County Commission Chair Gerald Corkin (D-Negaunee).

You may notice that I did not mention already announced candidate Connie Saltonstall.  This was intentional.  Saltonstall, from my perspective, is far to liberal for the 1st District.  Not only that, but she has little political experience.  She also hails from the Lower Peninsula, which makes it nearly impossible for her to win (a candiate must have a UP base to win here).  I’ll do what I can to ensure that Saltonstall is not the nominee, should Stupak retire.

and now for the Republicans:

Tom Casperson (R-Gladstone) – Casperson, who you may remember ran against Stupak in 2008 and epicly failed, is now running for Mike Prusi’s State Senate seat.  He is a distinct underdog against Mike Lahti, and likely knows this.  If Stupak does retire, Casperson may decide to try for Congress again instead.  In an open seat he could make a race of it, especially against a lackluster Democrat.

Other potential Republican candidates include State Rep. Kevin Elsenheimer, and….well that’s about it for elected officials.  There are a few Republicans who’ve already filed, but they fall into the category of “Some Guy.”

So yes, if Stupak does retire, it will be a close race. Probably a tossup. But the seat is not “gone” without Stupak; far from it.  There is a deep bench of Democrats who have the potential to retain this seat, as well as a very very shallow bench of Republicans.  In any other year, I’d say this race was Leans Democrat, but unfortunately 2010 is shaping up to be a bad year for Dems, so I’m calling it a tossup.