Tag: D.C. Morrison

Mason-Dixon (5/3-5, likely voters, 1/18-20 in parens):

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 44 (52)

Bill Halter (D): 32 (34)

D.C. Morrison (D): 7 (n/a)

Undecided: 17

(MoE: ±5%)

John Boozman (R): 48

Jim Holt (R): 17

Gilbert Baker (R): 11

Kim Hendren (R): 5

Conrad Reynolds (R): 2

Curtis Coleman (R): 1

Other: 1

Undecided: 15

(MoE: ±5%)

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 35

John Boozman (R): 52

Undecided: 13

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 39 (39)

Gilbert Baker (R): 47 (43)

Undecided: 14 (18)

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 40 (43)

Jim Holt (R): 45 (37)

Undecided: 15 (20)

Bill Halter (D): 32

John Boozman (R): 56

Undecided: 12

Bill Halter (D): 34

Gilbert Baker (R): 42

Undecided: 24

Bill Halter (D): 36

Jim Holt (R): 42

Undecided: 22

(MoE: ±4%)

Remember, in Arkansas, if one candidate fails to get 50% on May 18, then we’ll have a run-off on June 8th. The entry of weirdo Paulist D.C. Morrison suggests that this is a possibility on the Dem side, and the fractured GOP field might also yield a run-off, unless John Boozman can seal the deal soon – which he may be close to doing. In light of this, run-off hopeful Gilbert Baker has released his own numbers (PDF) from The Political Firm showing him in second place with 22% (with Boozman at 44 and Jim Holt! in third with just 8). Research 2000 will have a new survey out this week, and I’m sure they won’t be alone.

Research 2000 (4/26-28, likely voters, 4/12-14 in parens):

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 43 (45)

Bill Halter (D): 35 (33)

Other: 7 (6)

Undecided: 15 (16)

(MoE: ±5%)

Halter has made a bit of an ascent over the past couple of weeks, pulling within single digits of Lincoln for the first time after previously stalling at a gap of 12 points. Pay close attention to that “Other” number, which presumably are the votes that tea-flavored Democrat D.C. Morrison is targeting. If no one wins 50% on May 18th, this sucker is going nuclear to a runoff on June 8th. In that event, this could be a race where time may be on Halter’s side.

And for the general election match-ups:

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 42 (43)

John Boozman (R): 52 (50)

Undecided: 6 (7)

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 40 (41)

Gilbert Baker (R): 47 (48)

Undecided: 13 (11)

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 40 (42)

Kim Hendren (R): 50 (49)

Undecided: 10 (9)

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 42 (43)

Curtis Coleman (R): 46 (46)

Undecided: 12 (11)

Bill Halter (D): 42 (41)

John Boozman (R): 47 (48)

Undecided: 11 (11)

Bill Halter (D): 43 (43)

Gilbert Baker (R): 44 (45)

Undecided: 13 (12)

Bill Halter (D): 43 (43)

Kim Hendren (R): 45 (46)

Undecided: 12 (11)

Bill Halter (D): 43 (44)

Curtis Coleman (R): 41 (43)

Undecided: 16 (13)

(MoE: ±4%)

Rasmussen also has some numbers that, while not looking anything quite like this, at least corroborate the idea that Halter is less of a general election liability than Lincoln.

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (4/12-14, likely voters, 3/22-24 in parentheses):

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 45 (44)

Bill Halter (D): 33 (31)

Other: 6 (0)

Undecided: 16 (25)

(MoE: ±5%)

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 43 (42)

John Boozman (R): 50 (49)

Undecided: 7 (9)

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 41 (41)

Gilbert Baker (R): 48 (49)

Undecided: 11 (10)

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 42 (43)

Kim Hendren (R): 49 (48)

Undecided: 9 (9)

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 43 (44)

Curtis Coleman (R): 46 (47)

Undecided: 11 (9)

Bill Halter (D): 41 (40)

John Boozman (R): 48 (48)

Undecided: 11 (12)

Bill Halter (D): 43 (44)

Gilbert Baker (R): 45 (46)

Undecided: 12 (10)

Bill Halter (D): 43 (44)

Kim Hendren (R): 46 (45)

Undecided: 11 (11)

Bill Halter (D): 44 (45)

Curtis Coleman (R): 43 (44)

Undecided: 13 (11)

(MoE: ±4%)

There’s hardly any change here in the topline numbers from the R2K poll of Arkansas released last Friday, either in the primary, or especially in the general. (There were also Tom Cox matchups; I’m leaving them out, as he’s dropped out.) Undecideds are dropping in the primary, but the real gainer here is “other,” probably in the form of previously unknown conservadem D.C. Morrison.

The numbers to note in this poll are the approvals: Blanche Lincoln’s problem is that everyone has an opinion of her, and the majority of that is negative: 43/53. Bill Halter, by contrast, is at 47/30. 23% still haven’t formed an opinion of him, giving him room to grow. Lincoln, by contrast, has hit her ceiling and is upside down — not the conditions that get you re-elected.

Zata|3 (D) for Talk Business (4/14, likely voters, no trendlines):

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 38

Bill Halter (D): 31

D.C. Morrison (D): 10

Undecided: 20

(MoE: ±3%)

Zata|3 (yes, the pipe is actually part of their name) is yet another polling firm I’m not familiar with, but at least Talk Business is mixing it up – for their CD-level polls, they used a Republican outfit, while Zata is a Dem firm. Unhappy (of course) about these results, the Lincoln campaign did something we haven’t seen a whole lot of this cycle – they released a dueling internal. A Lincoln spokesbot also attacked the Talk Business poll for being “very unreliable” because it was automated (eyeroll).

Benenson Strategy Group (D) (PDF) for Blanche Lincoln (4/5-7, likely voters, no trendlines):

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 53

Bill Halter (D): 35

D.C. Morrison (D): 4

Undecided: 8

(MoE: ±3.8%)

Note that I’m using the numbers with leaners as detailed in the PDF, rather than the non-leaner numbers cited in the press release, which have Lincoln up 51-34. Incidentally, D.C. Morrison is some weirdo conservative Paulist that I’d never heard of until, well, just now.