Zata|3 for Talk Business (4/13, likely voters, no trendlines):
John Boozman (R): 46
Gilbert Baker (R): 14
Jim Holt (R): 8
Curtis Coleman (R): 5
Randy Alexander (R): 3
Kim Hendren (R): 3
Conrad Reynolds (R): 3
Fred Ramey (R): 1
Undecided: 17
(MoE: ±3%)
Talk Business is out with the Republican half of its poll of the Arkansas Senate primaries. Surprisingly, this seems to be the first public poll anyone has taken of the primary on the GOP side… which is fast-approaching on May 18 (which is shaping up as kind of the Super Tuesday of Senate primaries). What’s not surprising: Rep. John Boozman, a late entrant but the race’s lone heavyweight, is firm control of the race.
The one possible roadblock to Boozman: Arkansas is one of the handful of southern states that uses a runoff system (the runoff would be June 8). Boozman is closing in on the 50% mark, but if he falls short, he’d be forced into a two-man race. And against state Sen. Gilbert Baker, that could be competitive if Baker consolidated all the other non-Boozman votes (which are presumably from the anti-establishment, anti-DC, religious right and/or teabagger side of things). Baker’s not counting himself out, clearly seeing that path with his switch to anti-insider rhetoric lately… and saying today that “No one gave Marco Rubio a chance when he challenged Charlie Crist.”