SSP Daily Digest: 3/21

IN-Sen: An unnamed “Democratic strategist” quoted by The Hill suggests that ex-Rep. Tim Roemer (whose name hadn’t really come up before this year) is unlikely to run for Senate. Honestly, I’m not sure if the wankerish Roemer would really excite anyone… but we don’t seem to have a long list of possible names for this race.

OH-Sen: PPP has another “everyone and the kitchen sink” primary polls, this time of the Republican senatorial primary in Ohio. In this case, the kitchen sink is named “Kenneth Blackwell,” and he comes in first in an eleventy-billion-way test, with all of 17%. I don’t think I’ve even heard Blackwell (last seen losing the 2006 gubernatorial race to Ted Strickland very badly) as a possible contender. Click the link for the other numbers.

VA-Sen: I’ve got a new name you can root for: Tim Donner, a wealthy television production executive who is considering whether to challenge George Allen in the Republican primary. A spokesman tells Dave Catanese he’s a “couple weeks away” from making a decision. It’s not 100% clear whether he’s a teabagger, but I suspect he is, given that his mouthpiece attacked bona fide teabagger (and hopeless Some Dude) Jamie Radtke for “working in government since she graduated from college,” and because Donner thinks none of the candidates currently running “believe in the concept of a citizen legislature.” That sounds like something a teabagger trying to channel Patrick Henry might say, no? At the very least, we should be hoping he’ll rough Macaca up with a million or few.

WV-Gov: This was expected, but it’s still an important get: State House Speaker Rick Thompson (D) scored the backing of the AFL-CIO, a key endorsement in what will likely be a low-turnout special primary. (As we noted last week, Thompson also picked up the support of a couple of teachers unions.) The election is May 14th.

CA-36: Marta Evry at Calitics takes a look at the ActBlue fundraising numbers so far for the key Democrats in the race. The numbers are a moving target, but as of Friday, Janice Hahn had taken in $49K from 200 donors, while Debra Bowen had pulled in $41K but from a much larger 474 donors. Oh, and Marcy Winograd has now achieved joke status, with $1K raised. Also, some teabagger also joined the race, making him the fourth Republican to get in.

Wisconsin Recall: Some very good sleuthing by Madison TV station WKOW27: The alleged mistress of GOP state Sen. Randy Hopper (the name you can’t forget) recently scored a government job, and Hopper said: “I want to keep my involvement of anything as a private matter. So, I’m going to maintain that.” He didn’t maintain that for very long, calling the station back and denying his involvement with the hiring. I’m not sure Jack McCoy ever got a witness to change his story so quickly – and incredibly. Even better, discovers WKOW, the woman in question got a 35% pay boost over the person who previously held the job. Scott Walker’s government austerity in action.

In other news, Greg Sargent says that GOP polling firm Public Opinion Strategies is in the field with a survey testing anti-union messages on recall target Alberta Darling’s behalf.

DCCC: Biden alert! The VPOTUS was in Philadelphia on Friday, raising a cool $400K for the D-Triple-C. A long list of PA pols was in attendance, including ex-Rep. Patrick Murphy and a couple of unsuccessful 2010 candidates, Bryan Lentz and John Callahan. Also nice to see present: Arlen Specter, a guy whose age, brief tenure as an elected Dem, and inglorious exit from office would give him more than enough reason to stay away from this sort of thing forever. Too bad he didn’t have the sense to join our team decades ago!

Redistricting Roundup:

With the bulk of census data out, redistricting stories are coming fast and furious now.

Arkansas: Talk Business has copies of a few different congressional maps proposed by various lawmakers, as well as descriptions of some others. Click the link to have a look.

California: Ugh, gross: One of two finalist consulting firms to help California’s new redistricting commission has hardcore Republican leanings, while two of four finalist law firms are similarly oriented. Of course, this is exactly what you risk when you leave things to a supposedly independent panel (that features a ridiculous level of Republican over-representation).

Florida: One Democratic consultant thinks that Florida’s population growth suggests that new districts (the state is getting two) could be anchored to regions that would favor two Republicans in particular: ex-LG Jeff Kottkamp and state Sen. Paula Dockery. Kottkamp lost the GOP primary for AG last year, while Dockery dropped out of the gubernatorial primary.

Iowa: The Hawkeye State’s independent redistricting commission will release its first proposes congressional and state maps on March 31st. (Remember, IA loses a House seat.) As the Des Moines Register points out, “Either chamber of the Iowa Legislature or Republican Gov. Terry Branstad can reject proposals twice. If they don’t like the third, the Iowa Supreme Court decides the boundaries.”

Louisiana: A bunch more proposed maps have been released by the state lege. Republican state House Speaker Jim Tucker’s plans can be found here, while Democratic state Senate President Joel Chaisson’s are toward the end of this document.

Missouri: Show Me State lawmakers are starting their work on redistricting, but if they don’t have a congressional plan by May 13th, then it’ll get kicked over to the courts. State legislative maps aren’t due until September.

Mississippi: I’m not really sure I’m getting this: The NAACP is suing the state of Mississippi over its redistricting plans, but the legislature hasn’t even passed anything yet. It seems like this case would fail from the get-go on ripeness grounds (i.e., a court would say that the dispute isn’t ready to be heard because the plaintiff doesn’t have actual maps to complain about), so I’m not really sure what the NAACP’s angle is here.

Pennsylvania: PoliticsPA talked to some insiders who are crediting Dave Wasserman’s sources and saying that his most recent map is apparently pretty close to the plan that the state’s Republicans are supposedly reaching consensus on. (Maybe both share the same sources, though – who knows?) Click through for all the details. The most salient feature is something a lot of people here have also proposed: a matchup between Jason Altmire and Mark Critz, the two most junior Democrats in the delegation, in order to deal with PA’s loss of a seat.

Virginia: Lawmakers are potentially looking to release state legislative maps as early as the end of the month – which makes sense, since VA holds its House and Senate elections this November.

SSP Daily Digest: 10/26 (Morning Edition)

  • AZ-Sen, AZ-Gov (Public Policy Polling for Daily Kos): Rodney Glassman (D) 38, John McCain 56; Terry Goddard (D) 44, Jan Brewer (R-inc) 52
  • GA-Sen, GA-Gov (Landmark Communications): Michael Thurmond (D) 35, Johnny Isakson (R-inc) 56; Roy Barnes (D) 39, Nathan Deal (R) 47
  • GA-Sen, GA-Gov (SurveyUSA): Michael Thurmond (D) 34, Johnny Isakson (R-inc) 58; Roy Barnes (D) 39, Nathan Deal (R) 49
  • HI-Gov (Ward Research): Neil Abercrombie (D) 51, Duke Aiona (R) 43
  • HI-01 (Ward Research): Colleen Hanabusa (D) 45, Charles Djou (R-inc) 48
  • IN-Sen (EPIC/MRA): Brad Ellsworth (D) 35, Dan Coats (R) 53
  • LA-Sen (Magellan): Charlie Melancon (D) 35, David Vitter (R-inc) 52
  • MA-04, MA-10 (UNH for the Boston Globe): Barney Frank (D-inc) 46, Sean Bielat (R) 33; Bill Keating (D) 37, Jeff Perry (R) 33
  • MD-01 (OpinionWorks for the Baltimore Sun): Frank Kratovil (D-inc) 40, Andy Harris (R) 40
  • MD-Gov (Abt SRBI for the Washington Post): Martin O’Malley (D-inc) 54, Bob Ehrlich (R) 40
  • MI-01 (EPIC/MRA): Gary McDowell (D) 40, Dan Benishek (R) 42
  • MI-03 (Public Opinion Strategies (R) for Justin Amash): Pat Miles (D) 30, Justin Amash (R) 49
  • MN-Gov (St. Cloud State University): Mark Dayton (D) 40, Tom Emmer (R) 30, Tom Horner (I) 19
  • NE-02 (Wiese Research): Tom White (D) 39, Lee Terry (R-inc) 44
  • NY-Sen-B (PDF) (Marist): Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc) 56, Joe DioGuardi (R) 38
  • OH-Gov (U. Cincinnati for Ohio media): Ted Strickland (D-inc) 47, John Kasich (R) 49
  • OR-Gov (Elway Research): John Kitzhaber (D) 45, Chris Dudley (R) 44
  • OR-01, OR-05 (Elway Research): David Wu (D-inc) 51, Rob Cornilles (R) 38; Kurt Schrader (D-inc) 50, Scott Bruun (R) 38
  • SC-Gov (Insider Advantage): Vincent Sheheen (D) 37, Nikki Haley (R) 51
  • SD-AL (Mason-Dixon): Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D-inc) 43, Kristi Noem (R) 45
  • SD-AL (Nielson Brothers): Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D-inc) 42, Kristi Noem (R) 40
  • TX-Gov (University of Texas): Bill White (D) 40, Rick Perry (R-inc) 50
  • Bonus: UT also tested a wide range of down-ballot races.

  • VA-02 (Christopher Newport University): Glenn Nye (D-inc) 41, Scott Rigell (R) 42
  • Margins & Errors: The DSCC supposedly has some internal with Alexi Giannoulias up 2 in IL-Sen, but this is some NRCC-style crap with no details other than the toplines… Some MI-Gov poll shows that the race still sucks… Frank Guinta is touting an internal in NH-01 that supposedly has him up 53-37, but there isn’t even word of the pollster’s name

    House Poll Dump: 10/25

    AR-02: OnMessage for Tim Griffin (10/13-14, likely voters, 6/13-14 in parens):

    Joyce Elliott (D): 40 (34)

    Tim Griffin (R): 52 (50)

    (MoE: ±4.9%)

    GA-02, GA-08: Landmark Communications (R) (10/19, likely voters):

    Sanford Bishop (D-inc): 45

    Mike Keown (R): 47

    Jim Marshall (D-inc): 35

    Austin Scott (R): 51

    (MoE: ±3.5%)

    KY-03: Braun Research for cn|2 (10/18-19, likely voters, 9/20-21 in parens):

    John Yarmuth (D-inc): 58 (53)

    Todd Lally (R): 31 (30)

    Undecided: 3 (12)

    (MoE: ±4.4%)

    Bonus finding: Jack Conway leads Rand Paul by 54-36 in this district, up from 51-39 in the previous Braun poll.

    KY-06: Mason-Dixon for the Lexington Herald-Leader and WKYT-TV (10/15-19, likely voters):

    Ben Chandler (D-inc): 48

    Andy Barr (R): 44

    (MoE: ±4.5%)

    LA-02: Zata|3 for local Dems (10/20, likely voters):

    Cedric Richmond (D): 53

    Joe Cao (R-inc): 36

    Undecided: 8

    (MoE: ±4.4%)

    ME-01, ME-02: Critical Insights (10/13-17, likely voters, 10/10-11 in parens):

    Chellie Pingree (D-inc): 45 (48)

    Dean Scontras (R): 40 (33)

    Mike Michaud (D-inc): 49 (43)

    Jason Levesque (R): 30 (30)

    (MoE: ±5.7%)

    MI-15: EPIC/MRA (10/16-19, likely voters):

    John Dingell (D-inc): 53

    Rob Steele (R): 36  

    (MoE: ±4.9%)

    NY-22: Abacus Associates for Maurice Hinchey (10/20-21, likely voters):

    Maurice Hinchey (D-inc): 51

    George Phillips (R): 34

    (MoE: ±4.9%)

    RI-01: Public Opinion Strategies for the NRCC (10/20-21, likely voters):

    David Cicilline (D-inc): 41

    John Loughlin (R): 41

    (MoE: ±5.7%)

    TN-08: The Tarrance Group for Stephen Fincher (10/18-19, likely voters, 10/11-12 in parens):

    Roy Herron (D): 35 (36)

    Stephen Fincher (R): 50 (47)

    Undecided: 11 (14)

    (MoE: ±5.8%)

    WA-02: SurveyUSA (10/19-21, likely voters, 9/26-28 in parens):

    Rick Larsen (D-inc): 50 (50)

    John Koster (R): 46 (47)

    Undecided: 3 (3)

    (MoE: ±3.9%)

    SSP Daily Digest: 10/22 (Morning Edition)

  • AR-Sen (Mason-Dixon): Blanche Lincoln (D-inc) 34, John Boozman (R) 55
  • CA-Sen (Tarrance Group for NRSC): Barbara Boxer (D-inc) 44, Carly Fiorina (R) 44
  • CT-Sen, CT-Gov (PDF) (Suffolk): Richard Blumenthal (D) 57, Linda McMahon (R) 39; Dan Malloy (D) 49, Tom Foley (R) 38 (PDF of crosstabs)
  • Rather unusually, Suffolk included Blumenthal & Malloy twice in their head-to-head questions: once as the Dem candidate, and once as the Working Families Party candidate. Each got about 3-4% as the WFP candidate. I’ve never seen a pollster do this in New York, where the practice of fusion voting is best known.

  • IL-Gov (PPP): Pat Quinn (D-inc) 41 (35), Bill Brady (R) 42 (42)
  • FL-22 (Susquehanna for Sunshine State News): Ron Klein (D-inc) 44, Allen West (R) 47
  • MA-04 (Fleming & Associates for WPRI): Barney Frank (D-inc) 49, Sean Bielat (R) 37
  • MD-01 (Monmouth): Frank Kratovil (D-inc) 42, Andy Harris (R) 53
  • MI-03 (EPIC/MRA): Pat Miles (D) 37, Justin Amash (R) 46
  • MN-01 (Grove Insight (D) for Project New West): Tim Walz (D-inc) 50, Randy Demmer (R) 34
  • MS-04 (Tarrance Group (R) for Steven Palazzo): Gene Taylor (D-inc) 41, Steven Palazzo (R) 43
  • NC-11 (Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (D) for DCCC): Heath Shuler (D-inc) 54, Jeff Miller 39
  • NM-02 (Tarrance Group (R) for Steve Pearce): Harry Teague (D-inc) 41, Steve Pearce (R) 50
  • NY-20 (Public Opinion Strategies (R) for Chris Gibson): Scott Murphy (D-inc) 42, Chris Gibson 44
  • OR-05 (SurveyUSA for KATU-TV): Kurt Schrader (D-inc) 41, Scott Bruun (R) 51
  • Note: Among the 10% who have already voted, Schrader leads 47-46. This continues a pattern we’ve seen in other SUSA polls (and also some, but not all, of the early voting numbers by party registration).

  • PA-06 (Monmouth): Manan Trivedi (D) 44, Jim Gerlach (R-inc) 54
  • PA-17 (Susquehanna for ABC27 News): Tim Holden (D-inc) 58, Justin Argall (R) 28
  • TX-23 (OnMessage (R) for Quico Canseco): Ciro Rodriguez (D-inc) 39, Quico Canseco (R) 45
  • VA-02 (PDF) (Public Opinion Strategies (R) for Scott Rigell): Glenn Nye (D-inc) 41, Scott Rigell 46 (R)
  • VA-05 (Benenson Strategy Group (D) for Tom Perriello): Tom Perriello (D-inc) 46, Rob Hurt (R) 47
  • WA-08 (SurveyUSA for KING-TV): Suzan DelBene (D) 45 (45), Dave Reichert (R-inc) 52 (52)
  • SSP Daily Digest: 10/19 (Morning Edition)

    What better way to celebrate SSP’s seventh birthday than to give you another firehose blast of polls?

    AL-02: Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (D) for the DCCC (10/9-12, likely voters, 9/26-28 in parens):

    Bobby Bright (D-inc): 51 (52)

    Martha Roby (R): 39 (43)

    (MoE: ±4.9%)

    AR-01: Anzalone Liszt for the DCCC (10/11-13, likely voters, 9/13-16 in parens):

    Chad Causey (D): 44 (46)

    Rick Crawford (R): 42 (44)

    (MoE: ±4.9%)

    AR-01: Talk Business Research and Hendrix College (PDF) (10/14, likely voters, 8/17 in parens):

    Chad Causey (D): 34 (32)

    Rick Crawford (R): 42 (48)

    Ken Adler (G): 4 (4)

    Undecided: 20 (20)

    (MoE: ±4.7%)

    AR-02: Talk Business Research and Hendrix College (PDF) (10/14, likely voters, 8/17 in parens):

    Joyce Elliott (D): 38 (35)

    Tim Griffin (R): 50 (52)

    Lance Levi (I): 3 (3)

    Lewis Kennedy (G): 3 (1)

    Undecided: 7 (9)

    (MoE: ±4.6%)

    AR-03: Talk Business Research and Hendrix College (PDF) (10/14, likely voters, 8/25 in parens):

    David Whitaker (D): 21 (31)

    Steve Womack (R): 59 (55)

    Undecided: 20 (14)

    (MoE: ±4.2%)

    AR-04: Talk Business Research and Hendrix College (PDF) (10/14, likely voters, 8/25-26 in parens):

    Mike Ross (D-inc): 52 (49)

    Beth Anne Rankin (R): 34 (31)

    Joshua Drake (G): 3 (4)

    Undecided: 11 (16)

    (MoE: ±4.2%)

    CA-47: Public Opinion Strategies (R) for Van Tran (10/13-14, likely voters, no trendlines):

    Loretta Sanchez (D-inc): 39

    Van Tran (R): 39

    Ceci Iglesias (I): 5

    Undecided: 17

    (MoE: ±5.7%)

    FL-Sen: Suffolk (10/14-17, likely voters, no trendlines):

    Kendrick Meek (D): 22

    Marco Rubio (R): 39

    Charlie Crist (I): 31

    Undecided: 6

    (MoE: ±4.4%)

    FL-Gov: Suffolk (10/14-17, likely voters, no trendlines):

    Alex Sink (D): 45

    Rick Scott (R): 38

    Undecided: 13

    (MoE: ±4.4%)

    Misc.: In the AG race, Pam Bondi (R) leads Dan Gelber (D), 38-30. Also, a poll by Voter Survey Service (aka Susquehanna) for the right-wing Sunshine State News site has Adam Putnam (R) leading Scott Maddox (D) in the Ag Comm’r race, 40-35. Tea Party candidate Ira Chester takes 14%.

    MA-Gov: Public Opinion Strategies (R) for Charlie Baker (10/11-13, likely voters, no trendlines):

    Deval Patrick (D-inc): 35

    Charlie Baker (R): 42

    Tim Cahill (I): 10

    (MoE: ±3.5%)

    MA-10: MassINC Polling Group for WGBH (10/13-15, likely voters incl. leaners, no trendlines):

    William Keating (D): 46

    Jeffrey Perry (R): 43

    Other: 5

    Undecided: 4

    (MoE: ±4.9%)

    MI-Gov: Foster McCollum White and Baydoun Consulting (D) (PDF) (10/7, likely voters, no trendlines):

    Virg Bernero (D): 37

    Rick Snyder: 50

    Undecided: 13

    (MoE: ±2.1%)

    MO-Sen: Public Policy Polling (D) (PDF) for Robin Carnahan (10/17-18, likely voters, 8/14-15 in parens):

    Robin Carnahan (D): 41 (38)

    Roy Blunt (R): 46 (45)

    Jerry Beck (C): 3 (5)

    Jonathan Dine (L): 3 (3)

    Undecided: 7 (9)

    (MoE: ±3.9%)

    NM-Gov: SurveyUSA for KOB-TV (10/12-14, likely voters, 5/23-25 in parens)

    Diane Denish (D): 42 (43)

    Susana Martinez (R): 54 (49)

    Undecided: 4 (8)

    (MoE: ±3.9%)

    Note: Among the 13% of respondents who say they have already voted, Martinez has a 60-36 lead.

    NY-25: Siena (10/10-12, likely voters, no trendlines):

    Dan Maffei (D-inc): 51

    Ann Marie Buerkle (R): 39

    Undecided: 10

    (MoE: ±3.9%)

    Note: Maggie Haberman tweets that Karl Rove’s American Crossroads plans to get involved here.

    NY-Gov: New York Times (PDF) (10/10-15, likely voters, no trendlines):

    Andrew Cuomo (D): 59

    Carl Paladino (R): 24

    Undecided: 12

    (MoE: ±3%)

    OR-04: Grove Insight (D) for Peter DeFazio (10/11-12, likely voters, no trendlines):

    Peter DeFazio (D-inc): 53

    Art Robinson (R): 39

    (MoE: ±4.9%)

    OR-05: Moore Information (R) for Scott Bruun (10/13-14, likely voters, no trendlines):

    Kurt Schrader (D-inc): 40

    Scott Bruun: 44

    (MoE: ±5.7%)

    PA-15: Muhlenberg (PDF) (10/5-13, likely voters, 9/11-16 in parens):

    John Callahan (D): 32 (38)

    Charlie Dent (R-inc): 49 (49)

    Jake Towne (I): 5 (3)

    Undecided: 13 (10)

    (MoE: ±5%)

    UT-Gov: Dan Jones & Associates for the Deseret News/KSL-TV (10/11-14, “active voters,” 10/7-13 in parens):

    Peter Corroon (D): 33 (31)

    Gary Herbert (R-inc): 58 (52)

    Undecided: 6 (13)

    (MoE: ±4%)

    Note: The Deseret News says that Dan Jones has also done polling for Herbert. Should we be regarding them as an (R) pollster?

    UT-Gov: UtahPolicy.com/Western Wats (9/30-10/3, likely voters, no trendlines):

    Peter Corroon (D): 27

    Gary Herbert (R-inc): 58

    Undecided: 12

    (MoE: ±4%)

    Note: Dan Jones also has UT-Sen numbers. UtahPolicy.com also has UT-Sen, UT-01, and UT-03 numbers.

    VA-05: Roanoke College (10/5-14, likely voters, no trendlines):

    Tom Perriello (D-inc): 40

    Rob Hurt (R): 46

    Jeffrey Clark (I): 1

    Undecided: 13

    (MoE: ±4.1%)

    WI-Gov: St. Norbert College (PDF) for Wisconsin Public Radio (10/12-15, likely voters, 3/23-31 in parens):

    Tom Barrett (D): 41 (28)

    Scott Walker (R): 50 (44)

    Undecided: 6 (17)

    (MoE: ±5%)

    Margins & Errors: The Fix publishes an alleged WA-Sen poll without either field dates or sample size… Bill Kristol (yeah, that Bill Kristol) claims he has his hands on an OH-10 poll – he has the n, but won’t say the pollster’s name, who paid for the poll, or when it was taken… Pollster.com has a PDF from ccAdvertising with numbers for WV-Sen, WV-01, and WV-03 – but not only does ccA report to hundredths of a percent, they get taken to the woodshed by Mark Blumenthal for refusing to divulge the poll’s sponsor

    Weekend Poll Round-up: House Edition

    All the latest House polls in one place.

    IL-09: Magellan for Joel Pollak (10/12, likely voters):

    Jan Schakowsky (D-inc): 48

    Joel Pollak (R): 30

    (MoE: ±3%)

    IL-10: We Ask America (10/15, likely voters):

    Dan Seals (D): 39

    Bob Dold (R): 50

    Undecided: 11

    (MoE: ±2.9%)

    ME-01, ME-02: Critical Insights (10/10-11, likely voters, 9/27 in parens):

    Chellie Pingree (D-inc): 48 (54)

    Dean Scontras (R): 33 (36)

    Mike Michaud (D-inc): 43 (44)

    Jason Levesque (R): 30 (32)

    (MoE: ±5.7%)

    MN-01: SurveyUSA (10/12-14, likely voters):

    Tim Walz (D-inc): 47

    Randy Demmer (R): 42

    Steven Wilson (IP): 4

    Lars Johnson (I): 2

    Undecided: 5

    (MoE: ±4.1%)

    MO-05: Pulse/Rasmussen for Jacob Turk (10/5, likely voters):

    Emanuel Cleaver (D-inc): 52

    Jacob Turk (R): 43

    (MoE: ±4%)

    NH-01, NH-02: University of New Hampshire (10/7-12, likely voters, September in parens):

    Carol Shea-Porter (D-inc): 36 (39)

    Frank Guinta (R): 48 (49)

    (MoE: ±5.3%)

    Ann McLane Kuster (D-inc): 43 (38)

    Charlie Bass (R): 36 (43)

    (MoE: ±5.1%)

    PA-04: Public Opinion Strategies for Keith Rothfus (10/6-7, likely voters):

    Jason Altmire (D-inc): 47

    Keith Rothfus (R): 36

    (MoE: ±5.7%)

    PA-07: Franklin & Marshall College (10/5-11, likely voters):

    Bryan Lentz (D): 31

    Pat Meehan (R): 34

    (MoE: ±4.9%)

    PA-08: Monmouth University (10/11-13, likely voters):

    Patrick Murphy (D-inc): 46

    Mike Fitzpatrick (R): 51

    (MoE: ±3.9%)

    PA-10, PA-11: Critical Insights for the Times Leader (dates unspecified, likely voters):

    Chris Carney (D-inc): 38

    Tom Marino (R): 44

    Paul Kanjorski (D-inc): 41

    Lou Barletta (R): 43

    (MoE: ±4.9%)

    RI-01: Quest (10/4-6, likely voters, 9/15-17 in parens):

    David Cicilline (D): 47 (49)

    John Loughlin (R): 36 (26)

    Undecided: 13 (25)

    (MoE: ±6.2%)

    SC-02: Anzalone Liszt Research (10/7-10, likely voters, 5/3-6 in parens):

    Rob Miller (D): 39 (34)

    Joe Wilson (R-inc): 46 (49)

    (MoE: ±4.4%)

    TN-04: Public Opinion Strategies for Scott DesJarlais (10/12 & 14, likely voters, 9/27-28 in parens):

    Lincoln Davis (D-inc): 40 (42)

    Scott DesJarlais (R): 45 (42)

    (MoE: ±5.7%)

    VA-09: SurveyUSA (10/11-13, likely voters, 9/27-29 in parens):

    Rick Boucher (D-inc): 51 (53)

    Morgan Griffith (R): 41 (38)

    Jeremiah Heaton (I): 4 (5)

    Undecided: 4 (4)

    (MoE: ±4%)

    WA-03: SurveyUSA (10/10-12, likely voters, 9/12-14 in parens):

    Denny Heck (D): 42 (43)

    Jaime Herrera (R): 53 (52)

    Undecided: 6 (4)

    (MoE: ±4.1%)

    Poll Roundup: 10/13

    I’m your poll pusher. 19 new ones:

  • AZ-Sen: Behavior Research Center (10/1-10, likely voters):

    Rodney Glassman (D): 22

    John McCain (R-inc): 56

    (MoE: ±4.7%)

  • DE-Sen: SurveyUSA for the University of Delaware Center for Political Communication (10/11-12, likely voters):

    Chris Coons (D): 54

    Christine O’Donnell (R): 33

    Undecided: 9

    (MoE: ±2.1%)

    Opinion Research for CNN/Time (10/8-12, likely voters, 9/17-21 in parens):

    Chris Coons (D): 57 (55)

    Christine O’Donnell (R): 38 (39)

    (MoE: ±3.5%)

  • FL-Sen: Quinnipiac (10/6-10, likely voters, 9/23-28 in parens):

    Kendrick Meek (D): 22 (18)

    Marco Rubio (R): 44 (46)

    Charlie Crist (I): 30 (33)

    (MoE: ±3%)

    Susquehanna (10/6-10, likely voters, 9/2-7 in parens):

    Kendrick Meek (D): 22 (23)

    Marco Rubio (R): 45 (43)

    Charlie Crist (I): 29 (29)

    (MoE: ±2.9%)

  • NV-Sen: Suffolk (10/7-11, likely voters):

    Harry Reid (D-inc): 45

    Sharron Angle (R): 43

    Scott Ashjian (T): 2

    (MoE: ±4.4%)

  • PA-Sen: Bennett Petts and Normington for Joe Sestak (10/4-6, likely voters):

    Joe Sestak (D): 45

    Pat Toomey (R): 46

    (MoE: ±3.5%)

  • WA-Sen: Opinion Research for CNN/Time (10/8-12, likely voters, 9/10-14 in parens):

    Patty Murray (D-inc): 51 (53)

    Dino Rossi (R): 43 (44)

    (MoE: ±3.5%)

  • WI-Sen, WI-Gov: Opinion Research for CNN/Time (10/8-12, likely voters, 9/17-21 in parens):

    Russ Feingold (D-inc): 44 (45)

    Ron Johnson (R): 52 (41)

    Tom Barrett (D): 44 (42)

    Scott Walker (R): 52 (53)

    (MoE: ±3.5%)

  • WV-Sen: Opinion Research for CNN/Time (10/8-12, likely voters):

    Joe Manchin (D): 44

    John Raese (R): 44

    Jesse Johnson (MP): 5

    (MoE: ±3.5%)

  • RI-Gov: Quest Research (10/4-6, likely voters, 9/15-17 in parens):

    Frank Caprio (D):  37 (36)

    Lincoln Chafee (I): 33 (24)

    John Robitaille (R): 22 (13)

    Ken Block (M): 2 (2)

    (MoE: ±4.4%)

  • CA-11: Lake Research Partners for Jerry McNerney (9/21-25, likely voters):

    Jerry McNerney (D-inc): 45

    David Harmer (R): 35

    David Christensen (AIP): 5

    (MoE: ±4.4)

  • GA-02: Public Opinion Strategies for Mike Keown (9/27-28, likely voters, August in parens):

    Sanford Bishop (D-inc): 47 (50)

    Mike Keown (R): 46 (44)

    (MoE: ±4.9%)

  • NJ-12: Monmouth University (10/9-12, likely voters):

    Rush Holt! (D): 51

    Scott Sipprelle (R): 46

    (MoE: ±3.9%)

  • NY-01: Siena (10/6-11, likely voters):

    Tim Bishop (D-inc): 51

    Randy Altschuler (R): 39

    (MoE: ±4%)

  • NY-19: Siena (10/5-10, likely voters):

    John Hall (D-inc): 43

    Nan Hayworth (R): 46

    (MoE: ±4%)

  • NY-23: Siena (10/5-7, likely voters):

    Bill Owens (D-inc): 42

    Matt Doheny (R): 31

    Doug Hoffman (C): 15

    After Hoffman voters told he suspended campaign/endorsed Doheny:

    Bill Owens (D-inc): 44

    Matt Doheny (R): 39

    Doug Hoffman (C): 1

    (MoE: ±4%)

  • PA-11: Franklin & Marshall College for Times-Shamrock Newspapers (10/5-10, likely voters):

    Paul Kanjorski (D-inc): 40

    Lou Barletta (R): 47

    (MoE: ±4.8%)

  • PA-12: Susquehanna for the Tribune-Review (10/9-10, likely voters):

    Mark Critz (D-inc): 43

    Tim Burns (R): 36

    (MoE: ±4.9%)

  • SSP Daily Digest: 10/5 (Morning Edition)

  • AK-Sen: Hello! McFly! You ever heard of the Commerce Clause? Joe Miller evidently got quite a fine education at Yale Law, since he somehow believes that the minimum wage is “not within the scope of the powers that are given to the federal government.” Oh, yeah, “merit scholarship.” Now make like a tree and beat it!
  • P.S. Miller’s personal financial disclosures – which he promised to file last week, after ignoring the law since April – are still “going to take a little while.” Anybody home, McFly?!

  • DE-Sen: By now, you’ve probably all seen Christine O’Donnell’s new ad. If not, drop everything and watch it. It might just blow your mind. But I don’t want this other crucial item to get lost in the shuffle: In a 2006 debate, O’Donnell said that “China was plotting to take over America and claimed to have classified information about the country that she couldn’t divulge.” Reminds me of one of my all-time fave Michele Bachmann quotes.
  • KY-Sen: Rand Paul is no slouch when it comes to slagging the social safety net. At a debate this weekend, he announced that he wanted to cut Social Security benefits by raising the retirement age. And at a meeting with (who else?) the state Chamber of Commerce, he also declared that Medicaid – a program which benefits some 800,000 Kentuckians – has created “intergenerational welfare.”
  • GA-02: Those federal indictments in Alabama regarding bribery-for-bingo charges are having effects across state lines. Jay Walker was “chief strategist” for Republican Scott McKeown, who has been making some serious headway against Rep. Sanford Bishop of late. Walker, unsurprisingly, has resigned his post.
  • MN-08: Republican Chip Cravaack (yep, that’s how you spell it) is touting an internal poll from Public Opinion Strategies (n=300) showing him nipping at longtime Rep. Jim Oberstar’s heels, 45-42. Oberstar’s campaign claims that the survey was a “push poll,” but Cravaack’s campaign denies it (though they won’t release the questionnaire). I’d be surprised if a firm like POS did anything outright shady, though. Anyhow, Cravaack had just $42K on hand as of July 21 and had only raised $100K overall. Oberstar has $1.1 million in the bank.
  • WA-03: This is weird – the Lower Columbia Daily News asked GOPer Jaime Herrera for a list of campaign events she’s done since the August primary, but she refused to provide one, claiming it might be used to attack her. Denny Heck’s campaign, for their part, says they think Herrera’s all but disappeared from the campaign trail. An unofficial list shows that she supposedly did about a dozen events in this timeframe, to some 30-odd by Heck.
  • NY-State Sen: Did you know that Iona College was in the polling biz? I had no idea. Anyhow, it looks like they’ve released a couple of state Senate polls in the last few weeks (but no telling exactly how many, since I can’t seem to find a central hub for them anywhere). I’ve come across two surveys, though: In SD-35 (PDF), Dem Andrea Stewart-Cousins leads Republican Liam McLaughlin 44-37. Meanwhile, in SD-40, GOPer Greg Ball leads Dem Mike Kaplowitz 45-35. (A Siena poll yesterday of the same race had Ball up just 45-44.) The sponsor of these polls is a right-wing business group called the Westchester County Association, which also promises to poll SD-37 and NY-19.
  • Fundraising:

    • ID-01, OH-15: The Hotline has numbers for Walt Minnick and Mary Jo Kilroy
    • NY-20: Scott Murphy, $900K raised
    • NM-01: Martin Heinrich, $575K raised, >$1m on hand
    • WA-02: Rick Larsen, $500K raised

    Independent Expenditures:

    • Ophthalmologists: Those rogues are backing a rare Dem, Glenn Nye (VA-02), and a guy whose name hasn’t come up in well over a year, Erik Paulsen (MN-03), to the tune of about $65K each
    • CT-Sen: The DSCC is spending half a mil on TV for Richard Blumenthal

    SSP TV:

    • CA-Sen: Uh, is it just me, or does this ad seem like a parody of itself?
    • ND-AL: I like seeing this a lot. It’s not the greatest ad of the cycle, but here Earl Pomeroy proudly touts his support of healthcare reform (I think he was the Dem in the reddest district to vote in favor), while attacking Rick Berg for supporting the never-popular insurance companies. If you know they’re going to attack you anyway, you need to just go strong

    SSP Daily Digest: 9/14 (Morning Edition)

  • AK-Sen: Man, we are seriously close! Just $195 away from our goal of raising $2,400 for Dem Scott McAdams in the topsy-turvy Alaska senate race. We have 64 contributors right now – I’d love to see us get to 70 before all is said and done. And if we hit our target now, you get to stop seeing nags from me!
  • DE-Sen: One final (?) independent expenditure report from the Tea Party Express, good for another $20K of media on Christine O’Donnell’s behalf. Damn this one ought to be exciting tonight.
  • CA-Gov: Gah, this is just unspinnably bad. Meg Whitman releases an ad featuring footage of Bill Clinton attacking Jerry Brown in the 1992 presidential primary, so what does Brown do? He calls Clinton a liar – and manages to make a crack about Monica freakin’ Lewinsky. (Talk about stuck in a time warp.) After a day, Brown finally apologized.
  • FL-Gov: Alex Sink secured endorsed from two top law enforcement groups: the Fraternal Order of Police and the Police Benevolent Association. Her campaign says it’s the first time in two decades both orgs have endorsed a Dem (the FOP hasn’t does so in 16 years).
  • KS-Gov: Live by the bailout, die by the bailout. Dem Tom Holland smacked Republican Sam Brownback during a recent debate for supporting a $200 billion bailout of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac – leaving Brownback to sputter that he voted against the bailout. Well, yeah, he voted against the infamous TARP. But Holland had him dead-to-rights on a separate vote, from July of 2008, which did in fact provide money to prop up the two government-sponsored mortgage enterprises.
  • ME-Gov: Watch GOP nominee Paul LePage get seriously testy when reporters ask him about the fact that his wife received homestead tax exemptions for properties in both Maine and Florida in 2009. (More details here.)
  • FL-02: Hah! This is why it pays to keep good records! Republican Steve Southerland claimed on a radio show that he had never donated money to Allen Boyd – so Boyd’s campaign dug up a $100 check from 1997 (!) that Southerland had made out to Boyd. Nice work!
  • FL-08: Tea Party candidate Peg Dunmire is out with her first TV ad of the cycle – notable, of course, because you don’t often see third-party candidates on the air (especially two months out from election day), and also because Dunmire has claimed she plans to put $250,000 of her own cash into the race.
  • IL-14: Idiot: GOPer Randy Hultgren made two separate contributions (totaling $2,000) to his federal campaign committee… from his state campaign committee. That, my friends, is not allowed (and which is why Hultgren is returning the money).
  • MI-01 (PDF): Republican Dan Benishek is touting an internal poll from TargetPoint Consulting, showing him with a 54-31 lead over Dem Gary McDowell. The polling memo is written in a pretty grossly sycophantic way, and my spidey sense is twigged enough for me to wonder if the ballot test was asked up top, or after some axe-grindy “issue” questions.
  • TN-04: Republican Scott DesJarlais is touting an internal poll from Public Opinion Strategies, showing him four points behind Dem Rep. Lincoln Davis, 45-41. Note to TargetPoint Consulting: This is how a polling memorandum should look.
  • DCCC: Reid Wilson has a detailed report on the D-Trip shifting ad money around, but really, it doesn’t sound very good to me. In the waning days of WWII, my dad (in Poland) would tune in to Nazi-censored radio reports about the German troops “consolidating their positions” or “shifting to more strategically advantageous territory,” etc. It was all bullshit-speak code for “we’re retreating.” So you tell me if you think the DCCC is reducing its ad buys in Arizona because vulnerable Dems there “are running stronger than expected campaigns,” or if that, too, is bullshit. Similarly, should we be happy that the Dems are cancelling buys in North Dakota? Of course, those radio broadcasts my dad listened to were in fact good news….
  • Chicago-Mayor: I don’t know if we’ll be able to keep up with what I’m sure will be an avalanche of candidacy announcements, but former Sen. Carol Moseley Braun says she’s throwing her hat in the ring for the Chicago mayor’s race.
  • SSP-TV (written by James L.):

  • AL-02: The DCCC, as part of its huge $1.2 million ad reservation on behalf of Dem Bobby Bright, is hitting Martha Roby for being funded by “special interests working to privatize Medicare.” The ad is no longer publicly available on YouTube, though.

  • AZ-01: Rogue dentist Paul Gosar hits Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick over spending in irritatingly-produced ad

  • AZ-05: David Schweikert attacks Harry Mitchell on taxes, bailouts, the stimulus, and (ironically) negative ads

  • AZ-08: Republican Jesse Kelly dubiously claims that he’s running to protect Social Security (despite last year saying: “I would love to eliminate the program.”)

  • CT-04: Dan Debicella goes after sophomore Dem Rep. Jim Himes on the usual GOP complaints

  • FL-22: Allen West hides the crazy in his new ad, instead hitting Dem Rep. Ron Klein on the economy

  • HI-01: Democrat Colleen Hanabusa reintroduces herself to voters

  • IA-03: GOPer Brad Zaun calls fans of government shrinkage to join his campaign

  • IL-10: Bob Dold! points the finger at Cap and Trade and Healthcare Reform for economic malaise

  • NM-02: Steve Pearce says he’ll create jobs somehow

  • MI-07: Mark Schauer gets a bunch of angry seniors to berate ex-Rep. Tim Walberg over his scary views on Social Security. I like this one.

  • MO-03: Republican Ed Martin airs his first ad touting his efforts to save jobs

  • OH-01: Dem Steve Driehaus says that Steve Chabot won’t stand up to the Tea Party

  • SC-02: Joe Wilson, via a retired General, hits Democrat Rob Miller on receiving fundraising assistance from MoveOn.org. His second ad touts his job platform. On a related note, Joe Wilson has a startlingly robotic voice – he sounds like something a Macintosh LC 630’s speech synthesizer would be spitting out in 1994.

  • UT-02: Republican Morgan Philpot urges change in his first spot, and says that he’s gonna “wear this sucker out” in ad #2

  • WI-08: Roofing contractor Reid Ribble touts his record of teaching high school volleyball

  • NRCC ads: AL-02, AZ-01, CA-11, FL-02, KY-06, MS-01, TX-17, VA-05, WI-07
  • SSP Daily Digest: 9/8 (Morning Edition)

  • AK-Sen: On the topic of Lisa Murkowski’s declaration that she’s “still in this game” and her outreach efforts to a polite but seemingly unenthused Alaska Libertarian Party, The Mudflats sums up the situation pretty well:

       * She’s not technically in the race right now

       * She’s not out of the race

       * She’s not a quitter

       * She is who she is

       * She will likely not run as a Libertarian

       * She will likely not run as a write-in

       * She doesn’t know what she’s doing

  • NH-Sen: Businessman Bill Binnie is throwing down another $500K of his own money, with the GOP primary just a week in the way. Though ex-AG Kelly Ayotte leads in what little polling there’s been, I think this race is still up for grabs.
  • NV-Sen: The LVRJ has a detailed profile on Sharron Angle’s tumultuous years in the state Assembly, where votes in the 42-member body were often “41 to Angle.”
  • CO-Gov: Some Colorado Republicans are suing to try to knock Tom Tancredo off the ballot, saying his candidacy violates the American Constitution Party’s bylaws. Even if they’re right, I wonder if they have standing.
  • FL-08: Alan Grayson claims he raised half a million bucks in August, and says he has more than a million on hand, despite prepaying for a bunch of television advertising.
  • FL-24: GOPer Sandy Adams (and the NRCC, apparently) are touting a Public Opinion Strategies internal which has her leading Rep. Suzanne Kosmas 49-37.
  • HI-01: Colleen Hanabusa outraised Rep. Charles Djou in the pre-primary fundraising period, $330K to $206K. But Djou has slightly more cash on hand, $428K to $404K.
  • NY-14: Some Democrat she is. When asked by a reporter if she would vote for her opponent – not even endorse, just vote – in the general if she lost the primary, Reshma Saujani said she “didn’t know” whether she would pull the lever for Rep. Carolyn Maloney. I’ve been adamantly opposed to Saujani’s candidacy since I first learned about her, and with good reason. But this may be the most disgusting thing she’s said so far. How can I possibly trust the Democratic bona fides of someone who can’t even say if she’ll vote Democrat in her own district? And no, her campaign’s belated attempt to claim she’ll “vote a straight ticket” does not assuage me in the least. When the cameras were rolling and the pressure was on, Saujani admitted she wasn’t a team player. We don’t need people like her in Congress.
  • Turnout (PDF): According to data compiled by the Center for the Study of the American Electorate, the “average percentage of eligible citizens who voted in the primaries of each major political party” shows more a greater share of Republicans voting in primaries this year than Dems for the first time since 1930. Of course, 1930 was a pretty good year for Dems… but the trendlines are not inspiring.
  • SSP TV:

  • GA-Sen: GOP Sen. Johnny Isakson, not a guy you traditionally think of as being endangered (if you’ve ever even heard of him) touts his conservative record
  • NH-Sen: Paul Hodes compares Washington to… a hot dog eating contest
  • NV-Sen: Harry Reid continues to produce some of the best negative ads of the cycle
  • OH-Sen: We mentioned this ad in yesterday’s digest, wherein Lee Fisher sez: “Congressman Rob Portman knows how to grow the economy… in China!” Our update is that a GOPer says the buy is for $1.4 million and that the ad is running in Columbus and northern OH
  • FL-Gov: Alex Sink responds to Rick Scott’s attack ads, which she says are all about Obama, not Florida
  • CA-11: Jerry McNerney’s first ad, touting his support for veterans’ causes (I like that he has an actual veteran do the talking – much better than the usual candidate bragging or hackneyed voiceover)
  • CA-45: Dem Steve Pougnet is on the air with his first ad, kicking off a reported $100K/week TV & radio ad blitz from now through election day
  • CO-04: Betsy Markey has an anti-spending spot
  • NM-01: Republican Jon Barela has an ad complaining about the debt
  • NM-02: Harry Teague is up with his first ad of the cycle, a surprisingly authentic 60-second spot that’s worth watching
  • NM-02: Meanwhile, Americans for Job Security hits Teague over his vote for cap-and-trade (a “one-week” buy)
  • NY-02: If Steve Israel is worried enough to go up on the air….
  • VA-02: Glenn Nye touts his work to keep an aircraft carrier at Hampton Roads