Hot on the heels of their hard-hitting ads against Republican Senators McConnell (KY), Collins (ME) and Sununu (NH), Americans United For Change is setting its sights on four Republican House incumbents: Heather Wilson (NM-01), Jim Walsh (NY-25), Dean Heller (NV-02), and Tim Johnson (IL-15):
AUFC picked an interesting mix of incumbents here. While Walsh and Wilson will be two huge Democratic targets next year, Johnson and Heller are completely out of left field. Raise your hands if you even knew that the Republicans had their own Tim Johnson. Yeah, I thought so.
As far as an “expanding the playing field” type of move, I remain skeptical that Heller’s district will come into play next year. At a PVI of R+8.2, the only reason this district was competitive last year was due to its open seat status, a feisty Republican primary, and Democrat Jill Derby’s strengths. I’m not anticipating that any of these factors will re-emerge in 2008, and I doubt that a top-shelf challenger will emerge. If I were in charge of these ad buys, I would have gone after Republican Jon Porter in nearby NV-03, whose D+1.0 district and out-of-the-mainstream views on Iraq make his district ripe for another aggressive challenge.
As for Johnson, his Illinois district went to Bush by 11 and 18 point margins in 2000 and 2004, respectively. I would be surprised if anything happened here, but at least Mr. Johnson will have to feel some deserved heat on Iraq. Hopefully his ass will get redistricted into oblivion in a few years.
UPDATE: AUFC is also going after Randy Kuhl (NY-29) and Mary Bono (CA-45).