Tag: Scott McAdams

Politico:

The Alaska Libertarian Party will not swap its chosen nominee for Sen. Lisa Murkowski if she loses the GOP nomination.

“We have decided that we will not offer the nomination to Lisa Murkowski for the Senate seat, even if came to that, because of fundamental differences,” said Alaska Libertarian Party Chairman Scott Kohlhaas.

The prospect of getting a sitting United States Senator to change colors must have been a hard thing to turn down for a party that doesn’t even have any elected state legislators, but at the end of the day, it seems that the Libertarians had too many issues with Murkowski’s voting record. At the end of the day, though, this is good news for Democrats: polling has shown that Democrat Scott McAdams has the best shot against Miller in a two-way race. Of course, now the possibility exists that Murkowski could run as a write-in, should she lose the GOP nomination to Miller.

In other Alaska news, the latest updated tally of uncounted votes is now north of 25,000: 15,720 absentees, 663 early votes, and 9,117 questioned ballots. The Alaska DoE says that about 7,000 votes will be counted tomorrow, which should give us a good indication of just where this race will end up.

Meanwhile, Joe Miller sounds like a 2004-era tinfoil hatter, as his attorney is sounding the alarm over Murkowski supporters potentially tampering with the state’s “vulnerable” Diebold voting technology with their iPhones. God, this cat fud looks so tasty that even I may need to take a bite!

Another day, another dose of protein-enriched cat fud from the bitter Republican ballot battle between Joe Miller and Lisa Murkowski. This is what it’s all about, people.

The New Math: The Alaska Division of Elections announced over the weekend that they now have 23,472 ballots (and counting) to process. That number includes 13,740 absentee ballots (out of 16,000 that were requested), 9,069 questioned ballots, and 663 uncounted early votes. It bears repeating, of course, that not all of these ballots are Republican, and that some will inevitably be invalidated rather than counted. The first batch of votes will be counted on Tuesday, with additional counts on September 3rd and 8th. We don’t know how many votes will be counted tomorrow, but the Anchorage Daily News is reporting that the DoE will determine the number at some point today.

Hope for Murkowski?: The Juneau Empire took a closer look at where the absentee ballots are coming from, and finds that a “slightly larger” portion of the absentees are coming from Murkowski-friendly areas:

The biggest portion of the ballots remaining to be counted are absentees, which share some significant traits with a type of ballot that has already been counted: early ballots.

Both early votes and absentee votes were cast by voters who sometimes weren’t exposed to the last days of the campaign, which saw Sarah Palin making automated phone calls to Republican voters on behalf of Miller and Tea Party Express-funded ads making attacks on Murkowski.

While Miller won election-day voting 50.9 percent to 49.1 percent, Murkowski won 54.1 percent to 45.9 percent among early voters.

About three-quarters of the votes cast Tuesday were in the hotly contested Republican races for governor, lieutenant governor and senator. If that margin holds and the absentee votes mimic the early votes, that could eliminate Miller’s lead, the Empire’s analysis shows.

Also, a slightly larger proportion of the absentee votes come from areas where Murkowski ran strongly. Her strongest areas were in Southeast, where she was born, in Anchorage, which she represented in the Alaska Legislature, and in the Bush. Miller, from Fairbanks, was most strong in the Interior and the Mat-Su Valley.

Fear and Loathing in the Mat-Su Valley: Joe Miller’s sure been off to a great start in displaying Senatorial temperament, first getting nailed by us for comparing the Murkowski/Libertarian Party situation to prostitution and now snarling in the direction of the NRSC:

Miller telephoned POLITICO Friday night, in an apparent preemptive strike against absentee-ballot challenges by Republican officials.

“We’re very disturbed over the fact that the National Republican Senatorial Committee has chosen to send a group of high-powered lawyers up here to Alaska to interfere with our election process,” Miller said.

“It appears that they’re trying to steal an election. The fact of it is, is that they only have one [goal], and it certainly is not the integrity of the election. It’s to skew the results against Joe Miller.” […]

“We’ve received calls from many people that have been queried – absentee voters who are asked who they voted for,” Miller said. “We believe that the votes ought to be counted appropriately, as they always have, without the interference of lawyers that are out there calling Alaskan voters to see how they voted, and without making challenges to the ballots.”

Way to make friends, Joe! Of course, Miller can publicly abuse the NRSC as much as he wants, and that organization will react as stony-faced as the Queen’s Guard staring down a throng of ill-mannered children. At the end of the day, the committee will offer their full support to Miller — should he be the nominee — but you can bet they’ll be grimacing on the inside if they need to do so.

In the Anchorage Daily News, Miller campaign spokesman Randy DeSoto doubled down on the allegations, saying that the NRSC is engaged in a “nefarious” scheme to “throw out ballots” marked for Miller. I note with some amusement that Miller is accusing Murkowski of attempting to “pull an Al Franken”, while also drawing attention to the fact that one of Norm Coleman’s recount lawyers is apparently providing assistance to Murkowski. I guess the phrase “pulling a Norm Coleman” doesn’t have the same cachet in teabagger circles.

The Libertarian Option: Joe Miller’s tweet became a lot more famous than the article to which it was attempting to draw attention, but there was some good dirt in that particular Daily Caller article from Alaska Libertarian chair Scott Kohlhaas:

Scott Kohlhaas, state chairman for the Libertarian Party of Alaska, told TheDC that a number of things have to happen before any decision is made. “Rumors are flying but I really have no comment on them because, I mean, Lisa would have to decide to do it and then our candidate would have to decide to voluntarily step down [and] then our executive committee would have to vote on a decision.”

Kohlhaas said he has no illusions about the fact that Murkowski is not a Libertarian, but says that having her run as one would be a way to get more publicity for the Party and possibly help the Party gain seats in state legislatures. “There are 7,000 state legislative seats out there and we don’t have one,” he said. “As far as getting the name out there, this episode is doing that much better than any one state legislative seat would. And in terms of morale for our Party a state [senator] would be a real gain for us.”

At the end of the day Kohlaas recognizes that having Murkowski run as a member of the Libertarian Party would certainly “confuse some people because she is not libertarian.”

“But that happens all the time. Our job is to educate and get the philosophy out there,” he said. “If we decide to do this it will advance the Party and believe me we won’t do this for nothing.”

Kohlhaas said that it will ultimately be up to David Hasse to decide if he would be willing to step aside.

“Yesterday, he was inclined to do this but today maybe not,” Kohlhaas said.

A lot of “ifs” there, of course. Murkowski certainly has her share of supporters who would like to see her commandeer the Libertarian line, including Andrew Halcro, who says that he’s shelling out for a Dittman Research poll in order to see how Murkowski would do in a three-way race against Miller and Democrat Scott McAdams. (Of course, we’ve already seen a poll like that, but perhaps Dittman will find more encouragement for Murk.)

Facing the Nation: Miller appeared on CBS yesterday to give us all a taste of his overwhelmingly tea-stained agenda, and he had headlines like this one to show for it back home:

Miller: Alaska should forgo federal help

Uncle Ted this guy ain’t! Miller also stuck by his openness to privatize Social Security, moderating himself only to say that those who have paid into the program already can keep their benefits (this despite also suggesting that Medicare and Social Security are unconstitutional). How magnanimous of him! Of course, that’s the kind of talk that tickles the erogenous zones of the nutters at the Club for Growth, and The Creative Team Who Brought You Bill Sali is now saying that they’ll direct fundraising dollars to Miller.

The Real Deal: Meanwhile, tacked on at the end of a piece on the booming salmon harvest up in Alaska, we have some more color on Sitka Mayor Scott McAdams, who sounds like a staunchly reality-based dude:

At a press conference after the primary election, McAdams, who grew up in Petersburg, said commercial fishing “goes to the core of my identity.”

“I learned to read, write and reason in a town where 85 cents on the dollar came from commercial fishing,” McAdams said. “I spent five years as a deckhand working in fisheries throughout the state.

“I seined in Southeast, Kodiak, I hand-bait longlined in the Gulf of Alaska and the Bering Sea. I have an appreciation and a great affinity for the lifestyle and the culture, and for the need for commercial fishing in our state.”

McAdams also picked up the endorsement of the Alaska AFL-CIO over the weekend (along with his fellow Democratic ticket-mates… and EFCA-backer Don Young). I’m looking forward to hearing more from and about McAdams once this Republican cat fud buffet is closed.

Public Policy Polling (8/27-28, likely voters, no trend lines):

Scott McAdams (D): 39

Joe Miller (R): 47

Undecided: 14

Scott McAdams (D): 22

Joe Miller (R): 38

Lisa Murkowski (L-inc): 34

Undecided: 6

Scott McAdams (D): 28

Lisa Murkowski (R-inc): 60

Undecided: 12

(MoE: ±2.7%)

Folks, we have ourselves a race here! In a head-to-head matchup against Miller, McAdams trails Miller by only 8 points — that’s about the best poll we’ve seen for a Alaska Democrat this cycle. McAdams holds 81% of Democrats (to Miller’s 73% of Republicans) and splits independents down the middle with Miller at 42% apiece. And that’s before most Alaskans are acquainted with McAdams! Joe Miller has a favorable rating that’s already underwater at 36-52, while McAdams is at 23-24, with 53% claiming “not sure”.

The poll also solidifies that this race would be dead in the water with Murkowski as the Republican nominee. Murkowski has stronger favorables among liberals than she does conservatives, and has a higher approval rating among Dems (52-41) than Republicans (47-47). In a three-way race as a Libertarian, Murkowski would take a plurality of independents (38%), a significant chunk of Democrats (28%) and nearly a third of Republicans (32%). As Tom Jensen notes, Democrats should actually be hoping that Murkowski does not pull the Libertarian trigger, as her supporters align behind McAdams by a 47-23 margin in a two-way race against Miller.

Of course, the dynamics of three-way races are always unpredictable, and as we’re seeing in Florida right now with Charlie Crist’s difficulties, they can present difficult needles to thread for the outsider candidate. However, for the time being, it would appear that Democrats should be hoping that Murkowski loses the final count — and that this stays as a two-way race.

We did this yesterday, and by God, we’re doing it again. It’s time to sort out the craziness that is the Alaska Senate race.

The Math: Our own Jeffmd, the mad scientist of SSP Labs, forecast earlier today that Murkowski may actually lose ground once the absentee and provisional votes are counted. However, Jeff’s math assumed 7,500 GOP absentees and 5,000 provisionals (or “questioned” ballots) would be counted. That number may come in a bit higher than that. From the Anchorage Daily News:

Elections officials on Thursday evening released the first detailed breakdown of the remaining ballots.

The state has received back 11,266 absentee ballots so far out of over 16,000 requested. The ballots had to be postmarked by Tuesday’s election but can come in as much as 15 days afterward.

There are also 658 early votes not yet counted and 8,972 questioned ballots. A ballot can be “questioned” for several reasons. Often the reason is that the voter cast the ballot in a precinct other than where they live.

Of course, it’s worth repeating that some of these ballots will be counted toward the Democratic primary (although Murkowski’s campaign manager, who observed the sorting of absentee ballots at the Division of Elections, said that a “very, very high percentage” of the ballots were Republican) and some will ultimately be disqualified. Counting the ballots should be a deliciously tense affair for all involved, and Joe Miller has already lashed out at Murkowski for calling in an NRSC lawyer in an attempt to “pull an Al Franken”. (I think the more appropriate term would be “pull a Norm Coleman”, but clearly Miller knows how to ace the lunatic cultural litmus test of the right.)

The Schedule: Here’s the timetable for the outstanding ballot count:

The Division of Elections plans to count all the absentee ballots on Aug. 31 that it has received by then. Some of the questioned ballots will be disqualified; for example if it turns out the voter really wasn’t registered in Alaska. Those that are valid will likely be counted on Sept. 3. Elections officials said they’ll do a final count of absentees and any other remaining ballots on Sept. 8.

Circle those dates on your calendar — especially the 31st, which should represent the biggest chunk of outstanding ballots.

“Considering All Options”: Murkowski’s camp is staying tight-lipped on the possibility of pursuing a third-party bid, but there are definitely some signs that she’s seriously considering it. Andrew Halcro, a Murkowski supporter who ran for Governor against Sarah Palin in 2006 as an indie, has apparently begun reaching out to Libertarian nominee David Haese about a possible third-party run for Murkowski:

There is a possibility that Murkowski could run on the Libertarian ticket in the November general election if she loses the Republican primary. The Alaska Libertarian Party is discussing the possibility and its Senate candidate, David Haase, has said he is open to talking to Murkowski about him stepping aside.

Andrew Halcro, a Murkowski supporter who served with her in the state Legislature, called Haase on Wednesday and discussed the possibility. Halcro said he was acting on his own and not coordinating with the Murkowski campaign.

Halcro said he did bring it up with Murkowski on Thursday morning. “She said what she’s told (the media), that she’s considering all the options,” he said.

Strings Attached: But what price would Murkowski have to pay in order to secure a ballot position from the Libertarians? By the sounds of it, Haese has one pet issue near and dear to his heart… nationalizing the Federal Reserve:

Libertarian Haase is the only third party candidate in the race, so that would be the only option for Murkowski to join a new party for a run. Haase would surely press Murkowski on the Federal Reserve, which is his focus. “Let’s take the Federal Reserve, nationalize it and take that income earning capacity and turn it over to the people to finance Social Security and Medicare,” Haase said.

Putting aside the mind-boggling reality of a Libertarian who wants to protect Social Security and Medicare… I have to admit that I’m mystified as to what exactly “nationalizing” the Fed would entail. But, hey, no one reads SSP for the policy! Anyhow, I wonder if Murkowski’s support of a David Vitter amendment which supported a stronger audit of the Fed than the one that ultimately passed might endear her to the Libertarians.

McAdams Gears Up: While Miller and Murkowski go into a state of vigil, Democratic nominee Scott McAdams, the mayor of Sitka, is busy exciting Democratic activists on the ground in Alaska. The Mudflats has video of a speech McAdams gave to a gathering of Alaska Dems on Wednesday night, and I like what I’m hearing – the man knows how to work a room. In case you’d rather not sit through a ten-minute video, Real Clear Politics has a partial recap:

McAdams soothed some of the heartburn within the party after his first conference call with reporters on Wednesday, in which he came across as poised and up to speed on statewide issues. Then in a speech on Wednesday at the Alaska Democrats Unity Dinner in Anchorage, McAdams made it clear that he will not make the same mistake that Murkowski did in neglecting to define Miller early.

The Democratic nominee struck an aggressively contemptuous note, referred to “this Joe Miller character” and calling him a “fringe character.”

The man’s got some game:

As McAdams also demonstrated on Wednesday, he will also seize upon the very platform that appealed so much to Miller’s fiscally conservative to libertarian primary voters. After all, it won’t be easy for a candidate who vows to fight government largess to win a general election in Alaska-the state that has long benefited more than any other from federal pork projects.

“I hear him talk about the end of federal investment in Alaska,” McAdams said on Wednesday, eliciting uproarious laughter from the crowd of Democrats in attendance.

“There’s a vote getter!” an anonymous voice in the crowd shouted, causing another eruption from the crowd.

McAdams continued to hammer home the point. “But the good news is that we as Democrats stand up for working people,” he said. “We believe in job creation. We believe that Alaska as a young state deserves to be developed like every other western state in the history of the United States.”

Observant swingnuts can probably tell that I’ve been very, very sour on Democratic hopes in general this cycle for quite some time. But, it’s the Sharron Angles and the Rand Pauls and the Joe Millers of this world that make this cycle, at the very least, a lot more competitive and entertaining to watch than it has any right to be. For now, the more I think about this race, the more I like it.

It could be the unlikeliest Senate race match-up of the year: teabagging attorney Joe Miller vs. Sitka Mayor Scott McAdams… but we’ll first have to see if Miller is indeed the victor. Since this race is still so unsettled, let’s do a roundup of all the latest news:

The Math: With every precinct reporting, Miller leads Murkowski by 1,668 votes. But there’s the lingering matter of all those absentees, which are still trickling in. Here’s the schedule for counting them:

None of the absentees has been counted. Absentee ballots had to be postmarked by Tuesday but could arrive up to 10 days after the election if mailed in the United States and 15 days if overseas. The Division of Elections will do its first count Aug. 31, with additional counts scheduled for Sept. 3 and Sept. 8.

The Alaska Division of Elections says that “more than” 16,000 absentees were requested, and that 7,600 of them have come back so far, but remember — not all of these ballots will be Republican primary votes. One estimate by Anchorage pollster Dave Dittman says that there are 5,000 GOP absentee ballots outstanding, but I’m not sure how that conclusion was reached, or if that guesstimate accounts for the ballots that have yet to trickle in. (Likely not.) In any event, Murkowski is going to have to win this pile by a large margin in order to come back from the grave.

A Third Party Play?: Murkowski says that it’s “premature” to discuss a third-party run before all the absentees come in, but her camp certainly is not ruling it out. One option is a write-in campaign, but the chances of success are pretty dim:

According to the elections coordinator in the Alaska Department of Elections, Murkowski has until October 28 to file as a write-in, in which case write-in votes for her would be counted if the aggregate total of all write-ins is greater than the number of ballots cast for the first-place candidate, or within the range that would require a recount. In the coordinator’s 14 years, this has never happened in a state race.

Another option would be to commandeer the line of a third-party… say, for instance, the Alaskan Independence Party. The first problem is that the AIP didn’t even bother to nominate a candidate for the general election in the first place, casting doubt on whether it’s legally possible for such a play to be engineered. (Remember, Wally Hickel was famously offered the AIP line after losing the GOP primary for the 1990 gubernatorial election, but he was taking over the ballot spot of a previously-nominated candidate.) In any event, the question is entirely academic, as the chair of the AIP has said that they would “absolutely not” let Murkowski join their ranks.

The best option for Murkowski may be to go Libertarian — that party seems entirely willing to listen to any offer she might make:

If Murkowski loses the primary, there is a possibility that she might able to run on the Libertarian ticket in the November general election. But that would require the Libertarian Senate candidate, David Haase, to agree to step aside, and for the Alaska Libertarian Party to agree to put Murkowski on the ballot.

Alaska Libertarian Party chairman Scott Kohlaas said he was open to the idea and that party leaders were discussing it. “There’s a chance,” Kohlhaas said on Wednesday.

Haase didn’t rule out the idea, saying he’d certainly listen if Murkowski wanted to step into his place.

Scott McAdams, The Anti-Teabagger: First, I encourage you to read this excellent piece by The Mudflats offering a wealth of background on how Joe Miller came from nowhere to force this nail-biter. The piece also has some color on Democrat Scott McAdams, and the details sound pretty good:

Scott McAdams, little known to Alaskans outside the southeast pan-handle, is a popular small town mayor. He runs the city of Sitka and has balanced budgets, focused on education, served on the school board, and has even figured out how to sell water to India. He was a deckhand on a commercial fishing boat all over the state, and is all the kinds of things that Sarah Palin said she was, before the media began to shine a flashlight in all the dark corners. He’s a “real Alaskan” in the style of the politicians of old, before oil was discovered and turned a libertarian blue state reddish. […]

McAdams who unlike Miller, is a fiscally conservative moderate Democrat, has executive experience, was born and raised in Alaska, and has worked with his hands in the fishing industry, suddenly finds himself with an incredible opportunity. One could even say that attorney and Yale Law grad Joe Miller who was born and raised “Outside” is kind of “elite,” while McAdams is all about Alaska, and “real people.”

And here’s the man in his own words:

McAdams called the tea party-backed Miller too extreme for Alaska, in what is sure to be a theme for the Democrats if Miller turns out to be the Republican nominee.

“I invite people who supported Senator Murkowski to please take a look at our campaign. I believe we are the moderate, rational, practical campaign, not the campaign of extreme measures and 19th-century ideology,” McAdams said.

McAdams said Alaskans value federal appropriations to develop infrastructure and don’t buy proposals such as abolishing the federal Department of Education. Miller has said education is a function to be left to states and localities. He’s argued that if the nation does not slash spending, it is headed for a “sovereign debt crisis” that would be worse for Alaska than less federal money.

I like it — he’s sounding the right notes and drawing the appropriate contrasts. And he certainly has a lot of material to work with; just take a gander, if you haven’t already, at Jed L’s DailyKos profile of Miller’s hard-right, anti-choice, anti-government philosophy. Sure, Joe Miller’s resume is impressive on paper (West Point, Yale Law, Magistrate Judge), but that doesn’t paper over crazy ideas.

No Democratic Switcheroos: The Twittering classes were full of speculation yesterday that some kind of deal would be worked out to swap McAdams on the Democratic ticket with ex-Gov. Tony Knowles, a man who has lost two statewide races in Alaska in the past six years. As we mentioned earlier, Knowles put those rumors to bed, saying he’s not at all interested in a run. McAdams, for his part, is standing absolutely firm, and good for him. Also, good on Mark Begich for lining solidly in McAdams’ corner:

But McAdams has the full support of Democrat Mark Begich, who two years ago pulled off his own successful upset of a Republican senator, Ted Stevens. Begich on Wednesday had this to say of McAdams: “I like what I see.”

“Welcome to Alaskan politics. Anything can happen. Everything’s viable,” Begich said. “It doesn’t take a lot of money, but it takes someone who is committed and hardworking, and can run a campaign. So I tell people and I’ve been telling people that this race shouldn’t be discounted out, and has potential.”

The latest count:

Seven more precincts have been counted, leaving just two precincts (and a load of absentees) outstanding, and Murkowski has cut the deficit to 1,492 votes from around the 2,000 mark. That gives the Murkowski camp a bit of hope, however faint, that the absentees could be enough to tip this thing back to her.

If Miller ends up winning and Murkowski wants to explore her third-party options, well, it seems that it would have to be Libertarian or bust:

Alaska Division of Elections Director Gail Fenumiai told me it’s too late for Murkowski to file to have her name appear on the ballot as an independent, so that would need to be a write-in effort. There is a Libertarian candidate in the race, Frederick Haase, who could choose to step down. The Libertarian Party could then select a replacement for him on the ballot.

There is no other third party candidate in the U.S. Senate race, so Libertarian would be the only option for Murkowski to join a new party for a run.

And as for Democratic nominee (and Sitka mayor) Scott McAdams, he announced today on a conference call organized by the Alaska Democratic Party that he will not be stepping aside for another candidate.

UPDATE: 100% is now in, and Miller netted a couple hundred extra votes. Also, we can put the Tony Knowles rumors to bed:

Knowles, however, told POLITICO Wednesday that he’s not interested in running for Senate again.

“I do not want to run for the office of Senate again,” said Knowles, who lost to Murkowski by a slim margin in her first bid for a full term in 2004. She had been appointed to the seat in 2002 by her father, then-GOP Gov. Frank Murkowski, a move that generated a considerable amount of controversy at the time.

“All of the deadlines are passed. That was a decision that had to be made by the 1st of June,” Knowles said. “But am I interested in running? No.”

• AK-Sen: I’ve got plenty of hearsay and conjecture. Those are kinds of evidence. (Ah, Lionel Hutz, always good for a quote.) Anyway, there’s lots of those kinds of evidence burning up the Twittersphere lately: maybe most significantly, the rumor that Alaska Dems are looking into getting Scott McAdams to stand down and inserting ex-Gov. Tony Knowles (the 2004 loser against Murkowski) to run in his place. Under state law, McAdams would have until 48 days before election day to drop out, but the wisdom of such a move seem uncertain, as McAdams is at least a fresh face and Knowles has two-time-loser taint. Also out there: that Lisa Murkowski is looking into some sort of independent run, which would probably have to take write-in form (although Taniel points out major practical problems with that). One other very weird alternative mentioned for Murkowski: commandeering the secessionist Alaska Independence Party. UPDATE: The Alaska state Dem party is about to hold a conference call with McAdams in which he lays out a path to victory, which certainly suggests that they aren’t abandoning him.

• NV-Sen: Is Sharron Angle following Michele Bachmann down that dark and winding path to… well, she’s already in Crazy Town, so whatever’s around the next bend beyond that. In an interview with a right-wing talk show host Bill Manders last year, Angle agreed with Manders that there were “domestic enemies” “in the walls of the Senate and the Congress.”

• WI-Sen: Here’s one more installment in the ongoing story of teabaggers adopting the “government money for me, not for thee” line of argumentation (a la Clint Didier and Stephen Fincher’s long history of happily accepting farm subsidies), disregarding the jaw-dropping hypocrisy that goes with it. It’s been revealed that Ron Johnson’s company, Paccur, got a $2.5 million government loan to pay for a 40,000 square foot expansion to its facilities. The revelation comes about a week after he said in an interview: “I have never lobbied for some special treatment or for a government payment… When you subsidize things…it doesn’t work through the free market system very well.”

• MD-Gov: Here’s a poll showing better-than-usual results for incumbent Dem governor Martin O’Malley, locked in a rematch battle with ex-Gov. Bob Ehrlich. The OpinionWorks poll, on behalf of a non-profit called Center Maryland, gives O’Malley a 47-41 lead over Ehrlich, and also gives O’Malley a respectable 49/39 approval.

• MI-Gov: Tough nerd and GOP gubernatorial nominee Rick Snyder picked a running mate: state Rep. Brian Calley, a 33-year-old who helps Snyder fill his political-inexperience and social-conservative gaps. One wrinkle: Calley was already the GOP nominee for a state Senate seat, so it’s unclear how filling that vacancy will now play out. Dem nominee Virg Bernero will also need to pick a running mate ahead of this weekend’s nominating convention.

• NY-St. Sen.: Campaign ads in local newspapers in state Senate races are usually a little too down in the weeds for even SSP, but take a look at this amazingly thorough anti-Greg Ball demolition derby run by a group called “Republicans for Truth” as we approach the GOP primary in open SD-40 in New York. Remember, Ball is the wacko we could have been running against in NY-19 if Nan Hayworth hadn’t priced him out.

• Ads: We’re awash in new ads today (as I’m sure we will be every day until November), with the biggest-ticket one seeming to be a new anti-Joe Sestak ad in PA-Sen from Rove front-group American Crossroads. The even more mysterious Americans for Job Security are also wading into MO-Sen, launching an anti-Robin Carnahan radio ad. TV spots are also up in various House races: in FL-22 for Allen West, in KY-06 for Andy Barr, in TX-17 for Bill Flores, and in AZ-08 for Gabby Giffords. NWOTSOTB, in all cases.

• Blogosphere: Congratulations to friend-of-the-site Nate Silver, whose little blog called 538.com has completed its ascendancy, getting relaunched today as part of the New York Times’ online operations.

• History: New Orleans has a particularly fascinating and byzantine political history; with the LA-02 primary fast approaching, here’s an interesting long article on the rise (and potential decline) of African-American political power in the Big Easy.

• Rasmussen:

• CA-Sen: Barbara Boxer (D-inc) 44%, Carly Fiorina (R) 43%

• IL-Sen: Alexi Giannoulias (D) 42%, Mark Kirk (R) 40%

• OR-Sen: Ron Wyden (D-inc) 56%, Jim Huffman (R) 36%

• WI-Sen: Russ Feingold (D-inc) 46%, Ron Johnson (R) 47%

• WI-Sen: Russ Feingold (D-inc) 47%, David Westlake (R) 40%

• Alaska: Last night’s biggest story wound up being the Alaska GOP Senate primary, where Lisa Murkowski is on track to being the second sitting Senator to get bounced by the tea partiers, via the previously little-known Joe Miller. Miller leads Murkowski by 2,000 votes (51-49), although with about a dozen precincts outstanding and then at least 7,600 absentee ballots to be counted, we won’t know anything for sure until possibly Sep. 8. With the outcome uncertain, Murkowski isn’t conceding, but is already sounding sour-grapesy, sending some bad vibes in the direction of Miller-endorsing Sarah Palin. The winner will face off against Sitka mayor Scott McAdams, the Dem winner who suddenly finds himself in a potentially competitive race. (The DSCC is already out with a press release this morning hitting Miller’s extremism, but they haven’t said anything about McAdams yet.)

Also in the Last Frontier, the gubernatorial race shaped up as expected, with incumbent GOPer Sean Parnell (who got promoted to the job when Palin did the resigny-quitty thing) facing off against former Dem state House minority leader Ethan Berkowitz. Both won their primaries with smaller than expected numbers, though (with each receiving 49% of the vote).

• Arizona: Good news! For John McCain! He won his primary against J.D. Hayworth by a crushing margin — 56-32 — and all for the low, low cost of only his very soul (and tens of millions of dollars). He’ll face off against Rodney Glassman in the Senate primary; the former Tucson vice-mayor won a crowded Dem field with 35% of the vote.

There was one lone surprise among the four contested GOP House primaries, and that was in AZ-08, where 31-year-old teabagging veteran Jesse Kelly upset former state Sen. (and establishment pick) Jonathan Paton, 49-41. Maybe the result in AZ-03 was a surprise too, given the underwhelming last few weeks of his campaign, but money and family name rec managed to push Ben Quayle to a dazzling 23% victory in a 10-person field. Democratic opponent Jon Hulburd welcomed Quayle to the field in withering terms:

This election is now between Jon Hulburd and Brock Landers. It’s between a young man who fabricated a family, degraded women, and then tried to lie about it, and a small businessman and father of five who has been dedicated to his community…

In AZ-01, as expected, the victor was dentist Paul Gosar (at 31%), and in AZ-05, former Maricopa Co. Treasurer David Schweikert gets his rematch against Rep. Harry Mitchell (winning with 39%).

• Florida: For Florida Democrats, the GOP gubernatorial primary was truly the Best of Both Worlds (sorry, I just can’t get off the Peter Garrett thing). They could face off against a vociferously evil, Medicare-defrauding centimillionaire, or against an unpalatable dweeb with a long track record of losing elections, both of whom had turned each other radioactive with unprecedented levels of saturation negative advertising. In the end, the creepy rich guy won (spending $2.70 $84 per vote en route to a 46-43 win), advancing in thoroughly pre-defined form to face Democrat Alex Sink, left unscathed from her primary. McCollum has conceded without endorsing Scott, amidst the planned “unity rally” having already been scrapped several days in advance of the primary.

The Democrats own version of the GOP primary, in their Senate primary, turned out to not be so momentous; Kendrick Meek beat hard-partying billionaire Jeff Greene 57-31, and will try to wade into the general election battle between Charlie Crist (strangely still mum on how he’d caucus) and Marco Rubio. The most interesting House primary in the state was also one of the few Dem ones: Allen Boyd barely held off Al Lawson in a primary challenge from the left-ish in FL-02, winning 51-49 as Lawson rallied African-American voters. He’ll face GOPer Steve Southerland in November. The FL-17 primary, to replace Kendrick Meek, was a relatively easy win for state Sen. Frederica Wilson, who got 35% to take over this safe blue seat. (Those sad over Regina Thomas’s loss in GA-12 can at least take some comfort in that Wilson will be bringing her own crazy hat collection with her to the House.)

The tightest GOP House primary was in FL-24, where state Rep. Sandy Adams, basically that field’s third wheel, made her way through the wreckage left by Craig Miller and Karen Diebel’s attacks on each other to win with 30% of the vote, by a 560-vote margin (no AP call and no concession, though); Adams faces freshman Rep. Suzanne Kosmas. Daniel Webster won with 40% of the vote in the GOP primary in FL-08, for the right to face Rep. Alan Grayson in what’s likely to be the nation’s most over-the-top House race. And in FL-25, state Rep. David Rivera won the GOP primary in this open seat race with 62% despite late-breaking allegations of, well, everything; he’ll face Dem Joe Garcia.

• Oklahoma: In the fourth case (along with AZ-08, FL-08, and FL-24) last night of the NRCC not getting their preferred and/or expected candidate (not that it matters much in this red district), social conservative Jim Lankford beat Club for Growther Kevin Calvey in the OK-05 runoff, by a wide 65-35 margin.

• Vermont: The night’s most refreshing primary — one that was extremely civil and where one of the key issues was just how much each participant supported Vermont’s possible move to single-payer health care — also turned out to be its closest. With every precinct reporting this morning, state Sen. Peter Shumlin has a 190-vote lead over ex-LG Doug Racine, who in turn has a 494-vote lead on SoS Deb Markowitz. Shumlin has more or less declared victory, and will face Republican LG Brian Dubie.

The latest count:

So, it seems Joe Miller is on the verge of a shocking upset — or was it really all that shocking? Sure, the polls we saw of this race were not particularly encouraging for Miller, but they were taken before the Tea Party Express (the same lugs who powered bat-eyed Sharron Angle to a primary win) spent over $550K on Miller’s behalf. That may not seem like much, but those ad dollars can stretch a lot further in a less expensive media market like Alaska’s. Also, let’s not forget the dubious track record of Alaska polls back in 2008…

As for the final result, we won’t know for sure until all the absentees are counted — which will begin next week but finish on September 8th:

The final results of the race won’t be known for over a week. The Alaska Division of Elections said over 16,000 absentee ballots were requested and as of Monday night 7,600 had been returned. The first count of absentees will be next Tuesday and there will be two subsequent counts as the absentee votes trickle in on Sept. 3 and on Sept. 8.

I hope that Chuck Schumer’s been on the horn with Sitka Mayor – and Democratic Senate nominee – Scott McAdams this morning.

AK-Sen: It looks like Democrats will have a warm body to challenge frosh GOP Sen. Lisa Murkowski this year. The Alaska Democratic Party is touting Sitka Mayor Scott McAdams as their man, and he says that he’ll make an announcement about the race on June 1.

AR-Sen: The SEIU is spending $307,000 on their latest ad buy for Bill Halter, bringing their total investment in this race close to $2.5 million. That’s some serious pie.

CT-Sen: Last week, Joe Lieberman said he was undecided on whom to support in the race between Democrat Richard Blumenthal and Republican Linda McMahon. This week, Lieberman is still saying that he’s “not eliminating [a McMahon endorsement] as a possibility.” What a major league asshole.

FL-Sem: This is both amusing and rather extraordinary. Libertarian Party candidate Alexander Snitker released an internal poll conducted by Telsel Inc. showing Charlie Crist at 40%, Marco Rubio at 34%, Kendrick Meek at 10%, and Snitker at a whopping 2.5%. I’m not sure what’s more remarkable: the fact that this guy paid for a poll, or the fact that he’s touting its results as proof that he can win.

MO-Sen: Because it’s never too early to start planning for 2012, ex-Sen. Jim Talent says that he’s mulling over a rematch with Democrat Claire McCaskill, and will make a decision early next cycle.

NV-Sen: We had heard of the Dump Reid PAC before, but I didn’t realize that their name was an acronym. Yes, their formal title is actually “Decidedly Unhappy Mainstream Patriots Rejecting Evil-Mongering Incompetent Democrats”. Anyway, those bozos have spent $30,000 against Harry Reid, mostly on direct mail.

AL-07: EMILY’s List has now spent $110,000 on the candidacy of former Wall Street securities attorney Terri Sewell, most of that on direct mail. My one-word editorial: Yeesh.

AR-03: Wilson Research Strategies (5/19-20, likely voters):

Steve Womack (R): 53

Cecile Bledsoe (R): 24

Undecided: 23

(MoE: ±4.9%)

CT-04: It looks like the GOP primary to take on Jim Himes will be a four-way. State Sen. Dan Debicella, businessman Robert Merkle, and Easton First Selectman Thomas Herrmann will be joined on the ballot by Paulist businessman Rick Torres, who says that he’s collected the required amount of signatures to land on the ballot. Torres also announced a cross-endorsement of fellow weirdo Peter Schiff, who’s waging an uphill campaign for the Republican Senate nomination. Torres says that his campaign will help Schiff collect signatures in the coming days.

IN-03: Republicans now have more than ten dudes running for the seat of disgraced ex-Rep. Mark Souder, the latest entrant being state Rep. Wes Culver.

NY-13: After being rebuffed by disgraced ex-Rep. Vito Fossella, the Staten Island GOP formally nominated lawyer Michael Allegretti to take on Dem Rep. Mike McMahon. In advance of the committee’s vote, Allegretti’s primary opponent, former FBI agent Michael Grimm, wrote a blistering letter to the borough party, calling their Fossella shenanigans “dysfunctional” and their endorsement a “sham”. Grimm is vowing to soldier on to the primary. Meanwhile, McMahon picked up the endorsement of the Staten Island Conservative Party this week.

SC-03: I don’t have a dog in this race, but a good rule of thumb when it comes to contested GOP primaries is to root against whatever nutcase the Club for Growth has endorsed. That said, the Clubbers are spending $110K on a media buy in support of real estate broker and auctioneer Jeff Duncan in the open seat race to replace GOP Rep. Gresham Barrett. Write that one down on your scorecard!

TN-08: And speaking of “independent” expenditures, it’s been mentioned several times in the digest that Robert Kirkland has been filing independent expenditures on behalf of his brother, physician Ron Kirkland, who’s locked in a Republican primary battle with agribsuiness kingpin/humble gospel singer Stephen Fincher to replace retiring Dem Rep. John Tanner. For those keeping score, Rob has now spent a quarter of a million bucks on the race in a show of brotherly love.